Progression of the Sabres

[Randall Flagg]

I would seriously consider that but I don't know if the Yotes would give up that much.  OEL their first and an NHL ready prospect maybe.  I think Domi is in their LT plans.

Mark "Binky" Pysyk is sorely missed, if for know other reason than he is a calming influence on McCabe.  

The Yotes wouldn't even give up OEL by himself for Matthews. 

[JJFIVEOH]

Records, stats and trends aside the Sabres have looked flat and slow for the last 20+/- games. The first 10 games of the season they looked like they wanted to play, they did well in possession numbers, they looked like an offensively talented team even though the scoring didn't go along with it. Ever since then they look like every other boring, dump and chase product of the NHL. Are they just reverting back to the norm and those first 10 games were a fluke? Or are they just not progressing? Either way, I don't see progression. All of the stats provided in the original post are to be expected when you add as much talent as was added. Those numbers didn't improve because they progressed, they improved because they added talent. In my opinion, with the talent this team has, we should be seeing more even if they are still rebuilding.

[BetweenThePipes00]

 All of the stats provided in the original post are to be expected when you add as much talent as was added. Those numbers didn't improve because they progressed, they improved because they added talent. 

This reminded me of a thought I had during the Detroit game ... people seem to be expecting this team to play to the absolute best of its ability just because it has a legit level of NHL talent for the first time in like 3 years. I think that is unrealistic at this point. I am sure some will accuse me of making excuses for them, but so be it ...

This is what I saw in the Detroit game, especially early (the one they lost in a shootout Dec. 1 - http://www.nhl.com/gamecenter/en/boxscore?id=2015020362): One team that totally trusts its system and each other, playing fast and loose and reacting without thinking ... and then another team that was a half step behind, not always sure of what the right play was and chasing the game. Eventually the Sabres got up to speed but Detroit was always the same ... 

With the exception of Larkin, every guy at that Detroit team has been playing that system for YEARS ... even the young guys, they have been in that same system from the minors under their current coach. Ten of the 18 Sabres skaters were new from last season and they are all in a new system with a new coach. Eichel and Reinhart were not even playing pro hockey ... some would argue the guys on the team last season were not playing a pro hockey system. That makes a difference. I believe we saw that again last night in Calgary ... yes, they overachieved to make the playoffs last season but they were not as bad as their start this year, either. Legit NHL coach, lots of young talent up front, strong D, together for more than a year ... of course they are going to have their crap together more than the Sabres.

Don't get me wrong, I am NOT saying "The talent is there, just give them time!" Not at ALL. I would guess before we are happy with this team Weber, Gorges, Moulson, Gointa, Franson will all be gone ... guys like Deslauriers, Foligno and Larsson will be obvious 4th liners if they are here at all ... so I agree they are not good enough yet.

But by the same token, less than 30 games is way too soon to say they are not making any progress. I am sure they caught some teams taking them lightly early, and also they had no games to watch to see what the Sabres do well ... now they have 20+ games on tape and teams are game-planning for them. Makes a huge difference. Now the Sabres need to adjust to that ... and it's not going to happen as quickly as it will next season or the season after when most of the team knows the system and all the adjustments off of it. What a veteran team like Dallas or Boston can do in between periods takes the Sabres a week. They may never have even practiced the necessary adjustment yet.

All that to say ... this part of the process is no fun, in many ways LESS fun than even last year, because there is reason to believe there is the beginning of a good team in there ... but they are making progress. Sometimes the hard way is the only way to learn.

[sabresouth]

I think the problem is goaltending. They have little confidence in whoever is in net. Goalie's have cost them more games by far than stolen wins. I think it's hard to play when the sentiment is we can't keep a lead. I think the effort is down a little because of this.

[Iron Crotch]

I think the problem is goaltending. They have little confidence in whoever is in net. Goalie's have cost them more games by far than stolen wins. I think it's hard to play when the sentiment is we can't keep a lead. I think the effort is down a little because of this.

 

I tend to agree.  You can make a pretty good argument that in today's game wins and losses often boil down to goaltending.  Can analyze everything else to death, but having a guy who makes the crucial save is what this team needs.  Murray is putting an awful lot of faith in Robin Lehner.  We shall see.

[jsb]

This reminded me of a thought I had during the Detroit game ... people seem to be expecting this team to play to the absolute best of its ability just because it has a legit level of NHL talent for the first time in like 3 years. I think that is unrealistic at this point. I am sure some will accuse me of making excuses for them, but so be it ...

This is what I saw in the Detroit game, especially early (the one they lost in a shootout Dec. 1 - http://www.nhl.com/gamecenter/en/boxscore?id=2015020362): One team that totally trusts its system and each other, playing fast and loose and reacting without thinking ... and then another team that was a half step behind, not always sure of what the right play was and chasing the game. Eventually the Sabres got up to speed but Detroit was always the same ... 

With the exception of Larkin, every guy at that Detroit team has been playing that system for YEARS ... even the young guys, they have been in that same system from the minors under their current coach. Ten of the 18 Sabres skaters were new from last season and they are all in a new system with a new coach. Eichel and Reinhart were not even playing pro hockey ... some would argue the guys on the team last season were not playing a pro hockey system. That makes a difference. I believe we saw that again last night in Calgary ... yes, they overachieved to make the playoffs last season but they were not as bad as their start this year, either. Legit NHL coach, lots of young talent up front, strong D, together for more than a year ... of course they are going to have their crap together more than the Sabres.

Don't get me wrong, I am NOT saying "The talent is there, just give them time!" Not at ALL. I would guess before we are happy with this team Weber, Gorges, Moulson, Gointa, Franson will all be gone ... guys like Deslauriers, Foligno and Larsson will be obvious 4th liners if they are here at all ... so I agree they are not good enough yet.

But by the same token, less than 30 games is way too soon to say they are not making any progress. I am sure they caught some teams taking them lightly early, and also they had no games to watch to see what the Sabres do well ... now they have 20+ games on tape and teams are game-planning for them. Makes a huge difference. Now the Sabres need to adjust to that ... and it's not going to happen as quickly as it will next season or the season after when most of the team knows the system and all the adjustments off of it. What a veteran team like Dallas or Boston can do in between periods takes the Sabres a week. They may never have even practiced the necessary adjustment yet.

All that to say ... this part of the process is no fun, in many ways LESS fun than even last year, because there is reason to believe there is the beginning of a good team in there ... but they are making progress. Sometimes the hard way is the only way to learn.

+1 and another +1

[Doohicksie]

Whoa, whoa, whoa, slow down big boy, his avg. TOI is 5-6th Dman this year. Far far away from best Dman status. He's basically was getting Weber and Colaiacovo minutes. Again far far away from best Dman status. I like the kid long term but he's no savior now nor will be in the future.

 

At the time he was sent down two years ago, he was playing as good defense as anyone else on the team.

[That Aud Smell]

This reminded me of a thought I had during the Detroit game ... people seem to be expecting this team to play to the absolute best of its ability just because it has a legit level of NHL talent for the first time in like 3 years. I think that is unrealistic at this point. I am sure some will accuse me of making excuses for them, but so be it ...

 

Pipes!

[wjag]

I see a lot to like in this brand of Sabres hockey.

I also see a last place team in the making  

 

and I am having a hard time squaring the two.

[JJFIVEOH]

This reminded me of a thought I had during the Detroit game ... people seem to be expecting this team to play to the absolute best of its ability just because it has a legit level of NHL talent for the first time in like 3 years. I think that is unrealistic at this point. I am sure some will accuse me of making excuses for them, but so be it ...

This is what I saw in the Detroit game, especially early (the one they lost in a shootout Dec. 1 - http://www.nhl.com/gamecenter/en/boxscore?id=2015020362): One team that totally trusts its system and each other, playing fast and loose and reacting without thinking ... and then another team that was a half step behind, not always sure of what the right play was and chasing the game. Eventually the Sabres got up to speed but Detroit was always the same ... 

With the exception of Larkin, every guy at that Detroit team has been playing that system for YEARS ... even the young guys, they have been in that same system from the minors under their current coach. Ten of the 18 Sabres skaters were new from last season and they are all in a new system with a new coach. Eichel and Reinhart were not even playing pro hockey ... some would argue the guys on the team last season were not playing a pro hockey system. That makes a difference. I believe we saw that again last night in Calgary ... yes, they overachieved to make the playoffs last season but they were not as bad as their start this year, either. Legit NHL coach, lots of young talent up front, strong D, together for more than a year ... of course they are going to have their crap together more than the Sabres.

Don't get me wrong, I am NOT saying "The talent is there, just give them time!" Not at ALL. I would guess before we are happy with this team Weber, Gorges, Moulson, Gointa, Franson will all be gone ... guys like Deslauriers, Foligno and Larsson will be obvious 4th liners if they are here at all ... so I agree they are not good enough yet.

But by the same token, less than 30 games is way too soon to say they are not making any progress. I am sure they caught some teams taking them lightly early, and also they had no games to watch to see what the Sabres do well ... now they have 20+ games on tape and teams are game-planning for them. Makes a huge difference. Now the Sabres need to adjust to that ... and it's not going to happen as quickly as it will next season or the season after when most of the team knows the system and all the adjustments off of it. What a veteran team like Dallas or Boston can do in between periods takes the Sabres a week. They may never have even practiced the necessary adjustment yet.

All that to say ... this part of the process is no fun, in many ways LESS fun than even last year, because there is reason to believe there is the beginning of a good team in there ... but they are making progress. Sometimes the hard way is the only way to learn.

 

Excellent points. Here is what I expected this year. I expected what we saw the first 10 games or so. Flashes of brilliance, some improved Corsi numbers, decent possession times and the occassional offensive outburst of 5 or 6 goals. I also expected to see many mistakes..... turnovers, missed passes, bad reads, and generally what you'd expect from a group of guys completely unfamiliar with each other and the new system. The reason I say they're not progressing is because they've gotten away from those first 10 games. Perhaps Goober took a step back and decided to start playing these guys a bit more conservatively to try and eek out a few wins and then will progressively work the team into the type of system in which they might be more successful. That very well might be the case. I'm not expecting miracles and I'm not expecting playoffs. But I was expecting a somewhat competitive team. Yes, they are significantly better than last year. But they almost have to be.

[woods-racer]

I'm not in love with DB, but if any one has caught a Toronto game, please try and convince me that Babcock's system is fun and entertaining to watch. 

[Iron Crotch]

I'm not in love with DB, but if any one has caught a Toronto game, please try and convince me that Babcock's system is fun and entertaining to watch. 

 

Some of the teams that run "ultra-defensive" systems are horrible to watch in person - boring games.  A few that come to mind: Toronto, Florida, Minnesota.

[Crusader1969]

What are the odds GMTM moves up in the draft to get Chychrun to fill the hole in the d? 

 

At this rate the Sabres may be trading down to pick up Chychrun. Recently, I`ve seen him on most draft boards around 5th overall. Below Matthews of course, Tkachuk and the 2 Finns.

 

The way Nylander is playing he may pass his as well. Of course will have a much better idea of the seedings after the Word Juniors. 

[LGR4GM]

It seems like there are a growing number of concerned fans both on the board and elsewhere. Personally, I think this Sabres team is playing just as they should be, and wanted to look at how they compared to the past two seasons. I'm not sure what site is usually used for seeing in season splits, so all figures are from hockey-reference and are rounded up.

 

Goals for Per Game

2013-2014: 1.71

2014-2015: 1.87

2015-2016: 2.38

 

% of Games Earning Points

2013-2014: 31.7%

2014-2015: 32.9%

2015-2016: 43.1%

 

Leading Scorers

2013-2014: Cody Hodgson 44 Pts in 72 GP/ Ennis 21 Goals/ One 20+ goal scorer/ 4 players 30+ points

2014-2015: Tyler Ennis 46 Pts in 80 GP/ Ennis 20 Goals/ One 20+ goal scorer/ 4 players 30+ points

2015-2016: Ryan O'Reilly 25 Pts in 29 GP/ ROR/Eichel 9 Goals/ 2 players with 20+ points

 

Powerplay is also 9% better than last

 

 

Feel free to add more reasons as to why this team is significantly better. Should everyone be hoping we win the lottery? Absolutely, you should have been wanting to prior to the season (technically we all should have been rooting for The Cup, but whatever). Are we as bad as we were last season? Not even close. 

You mean the sky is not falling and this team is markedly better?

 

Great post and proof this team is progressing in the correct direction.

At this rate the Sabres may be trading down to pick up Chychrun. Recently, I`ve seen him on most draft boards around 5th overall. Below Matthews of course, Tkachuk and the 2 Finns.

 

The way Nylander is playing he may pass his as well. Of course will have a much better idea of the seedings after the Word Juniors. 

So you're suggesting Buffalo will finish last. Fat chance that happens.

[Crusader1969]

You mean the sky is not falling and this team is markedly better?

 

Great post and proof this team is progressing in the correct direction.

So you're suggesting Buffalo will finish last. Fat chance that happens.

 

No im suggesting Chychrun falls out of the top 5 and could go as 6th overall. Hanifin was thought most of the season last year as the 3rd pick overall about this time last year and dropped to 5th. No reason Chychrun couldn`t fall as well.

Edited December 13, 2015 by Crusader1969

[wjag]

I thought the game against the Kings was the type of team and game needed to compete in the end of the year hockey tournament.  They need a goalie (I'm betting on Linus), a 2nd line winger (someone who can challenge from the left side), another year of seasoning for Eichel, Rheinhart and Risto and maybe one more responsible Dman with a game an attitude like Chris Pronger.  A Dman who will make you afraid to end his side of the ice.