Progression of the Sabres

[#freejame]

It seems like there are a growing number of concerned fans both on the board and elsewhere. Personally, I think this Sabres team is playing just as they should be, and wanted to look at how they compared to the past two seasons. I'm not sure what site is usually used for seeing in season splits, so all figures are from hockey-reference and are rounded up.

Goals for Per Game
2013-2014: 1.71
2014-2015: 1.87

2015-2016: 2.38

% of Games Earning Points
2013-2014: 31.7%

2014-2015: 32.9%

2015-2016: 43.1%

Leading Scorers

2013-2014: Cody Hodgson 44 Pts in 72 GP/ Ennis 21 Goals/ One 20+ goal scorer/ 4 players 30+ points

2014-2015: Tyler Ennis 46 Pts in 80 GP/ Ennis 20 Goals/ One 20+ goal scorer/ 4 players 30+ points

2015-2016: Ryan O'Reilly 25 Pts in 29 GP/ ROR/Eichel 9 Goals/ 2 players with 20+ points

 

Powerplay is also 9% better than last


Feel free to add more reasons as to why this team is significantly better. Should everyone be hoping we win the lottery? Absolutely, you should have been wanting to prior to the season (technically we all should have been rooting for The Cup, but whatever). Are we as bad as we were last season? Not even close. 

Edited December 11, 2015 by IrwinNelson

[That Aud Smell]

Feel free to add more reasons as to why this team is significantly better. Should everyone be hoping we win the lottery? Absolutely, you should have been wanting to prior to the season (technically we all should have been rooting for The Cup, but whatever). Are we as bad as we were last season? Not even close. 

 

Amen, I say Amen.

 

I keep dwelling on the fact that the team needs another 1 or 2 more really good pieces (esp. on D) in order to be ready to make a run. I think you may need to be near the top of the draft to get one (or both) of those pieces.

[Stoner]

Amen, I say Amen.

 

I keep dwelling on the fact that the team needs another 1 or 2 more really good pieces (esp. on D) in order to be ready to make a run. I think you may need to be near the top of the draft to get one (or both) of those pieces.

To trade the pick for that piece/pieces? Because if you're relying on that pick to be a missing piece, the timeline for winning gets extended out several more years. Barring some kind of wunderkind...

 

Also, not to be overly pessimistic, but is there precedent for a team finishing 30th two years in a row, and looking down the barrel of doing it a third time, being "one or two more really good pieces" away? Would those two pieces be Bobby Orr and Wayne Gretzky?

[That Aud Smell]

To trade the pick for that piece/pieces? Because if you're relying on that pick to be a missing piece, the timeline for winning gets extended out several more years. Barring some kind of wunderkind...

 

Also, not to be overly pessimistic, but is there precedent for a team finishing 30th two years in a row, and looking down the barrel of doing it a third time, being "one or two more really good pieces" away? Would those two pieces be Bobby Orr and Wayne Gretzky?

 

Quite right. I think that could be the idea - use present picks for riper assets. 

 

I'm not sure. I have not given it enough thought. I'm not even sure that the need for 2 more really good NHLers dovetails with a finish in the bottom 10.

 

Anyway. I also think this team will have a streak in early 2016 where they win 7 of 10.

[Claude_Verret]

Quite right. I think that could be the idea - use present picks for riper assets. 

 

I'm not sure. I have not given it enough thought. I'm not even sure that the need for 2 more really good NHLers dovetails with a finish in the bottom 10.

 

Anyway. I also think this team will have a streak in early 2016 where they win 7 of 10.

 

 

And then it will be Cup parade planning time.  

[SwampD]

The unmentionable has left such a scar that I don't even know how to respond to this thread.

 

Are we better than the last two years? I sure hope so! When you are historically bad, there really is only one way to go. I don't fault anyone for being a little pissy about where we are, and I've been mostly entertained by this season.

[woods-racer]

I have no doubt the team has progress from last year. How could it not by subtraction of certain players alone.

 

What is troubling is the regression of the past 7-10 days. They look all around worse than they did to start the season. That's the regression that troublesome. 

 

Each week it was 2 steps forward 1 and a half back. But win or lose we saw progression. Who can say that for the last 4 games?

 

Every player that was here last year that we though was going to have a brake out year because they just needed some *quality* teammates is under performing. Moulson-Gergs-Ennis-maybe even Foligno and Desloriahoo. Why did Nolan get more out of these guys with a horrible surrounding cast? 

 

On defense, it appears Pysyk meant more than we realized. They appeared to be performing much better than anticipated at the start of the season. Now with him out they are what we thought they would be. 

[3putt]

It seems like there are a growing number of concerned fans both on the board and elsewhere. Personally, I think this Sabres team is playing just as they should be, and wanted to look at how they compared to the past two seasons. I'm not sure what site is usually used for seeing in season splits, so all figures are from hockey-reference and are rounded up.

 

Goals for Per Game

2013-2014: 1.71

2014-2015: 1.87

2015-2016: 2.38

 

% of Games Earning Points

2013-2014: 31.7%

2014-2015: 32.9%

2015-2016: 43.1%

 

Leading Scorers

2013-2014: Cody Hodgson 44 Pts in 72 GP/ Ennis 21 Goals/ One 20+ goal scorer/ 4 players 30+ points

2014-2015: Tyler Ennis 46 Pts in 80 GP/ Ennis 20 Goals/ One 20+ goal scorer/ 4 players 30+ points

2015-2016: Ryan O'Reilly 25 Pts in 29 GP/ ROR/Eichel 9 Goals/ 2 players with 20+ points

 

Powerplay is also 9% better than last

 

 

Feel free to add more reasons as to why this team is significantly better. Should everyone be hoping we win the lottery? Absolutely, you should have been wanting to prior to the season (technically we all should have been rooting for The Cup, but whatever). Are we as bad as we were last season? Not even close. 

Shot Differential/game:

2013 -8

2014 -11.4

2015 +1

Nice post btw.

[pi2000]

They need plenty more than just one or two more pieces.

 

D, goaltending, and scoring depth.   Really tho, the only thing they don't need is a #1 or #2 center.    Will Kane pan out as a top winger?   Maybe.

 

They need some 15-20g scorers.   Doesn't seem like Larsson, Foligno, Legwand, Gionta or Deslauriers will sniff anywhere 15-20g.   Moulson doesn't seem like a good fit either.   Girgensons is a disappointment.   Maybe Fasching, Bailey or Baptiste fill some of those spots eventually.   

 

They also need some speedy defenseman.   Gorges and Weber need to go.   Franson has played OK filling his role, but painful to watch that guy skate.  Replace them with some young guns like a Tyson Barrie or maybe Guhle makes the jump next season after a short stint in Roch.   They could use a veteran leader to QB the power play and be a mentor for Risto taking some of the pressure off him.   He seems to grip his stick too tight most of the time.   Bogosian has his moments, but also has terrible defensive lapses.

 

Is Lehner the answer in net?  Who knows.    Somebody from the group of Lehner, Ullmark, Peterson, Makarov, Kasdorf needs to step up over the next 18 months.

[SDS]

I have no doubt the team has progress from last year. How could it not by subtraction of certain players alone.

 

What is troubling is the regression of the past 7-10 days. They look all around worse than they did to start the season. That's the regression that troublesome. 

 

 

Trends should never be measured in single digit days...

[woods-racer]

Trends should never be measured in single digit days...

I'll give you having a few bad games against quality opponents may not be considered a declining trend,  But...

 

The Sabres played one of the few teams last night that was lower in the standings then they where. Did they look as good as Calgary? 

[dudacek]

To trade the pick for that piece/pieces? Because if you're relying on that pick to be a missing piece, the timeline for winning gets extended out several more years. Barring some kind of wunderkind...

 

Also, not to be overly pessimistic, but is there precedent for a team finishing 30th two years in a row, and looking down the barrel of doing it a third time, being "one or two more really good pieces" away? Would those two pieces be Bobby Orr and Wayne Gretzky?

It's not exactly your scenario, but the Penguins the year they ended up picking Jordan Staal comes to mind.

 

I think the current angst is due to the fact the current stretch is the first time the Sabres have strung together three bad games in row all season, and they have done it against poorer teams.

Our other losing streaks involved being in the losing end despite some good hockey.

 

My take is that this is just an inevitable slump in a long season

[tom webster]

Trends should never be measured in single digit days...

Exactly. The other thing that should be factored into this season's record is the goaltending effect. I know my analytics friends scoff at the importance of the position, however, I can think of three or four games lost because of goaltending and not one that was won because of it. Flop that number around and the team is in the middle of the playoff race.

While I admit to being a little disappointed by some individual player struggles, I think the team is where it should be in its progression. Learning the system, learning each other and still about 3 or 4 pieces and a couple of years away from being a serious contender

Edited December 11, 2015 by tom webster

[#freejame]

What are the odds GMTM moves up in the draft to get Chychrun to fill the hole in the d? 

[SDS]

I'll give you having a few bad games against quality opponents may not be considered a declining trend,  But...

 

The Sabres played one of the few teams last night that was lower in the standings then they where. Did they look as good as Calgary? 

 

That's the problem with small samples. What's the signal and what's the noise? A grainy picture becomes more clear the more snapshots you have. The signal rises and the noise averages out.

 

One of the best things any person can do is to get an accessible book like The Drunkard's Walk or any statistical book in that genre and give a read or a listen. It does wonders for your outlook on life.

[3putt]

What are the odds GMTM moves up in the draft to get Chychrun to fill the hole in the d? 

0 if he is picking #1.  you take Matthews and let the phones ring off the hook for your new surplus at center.

That's the problem with small samples. What's the signal and what's the noise? A grainy picture becomes more clear the more snapshots you have. The signal rises and the noise averages out.

 

One of the best things any person can do is to get an accessible book like The Drunkard's Walk or any statistical book in that genre and give a read or a listen. It does wonders for your outlook on life.

That is a great read.

[woods-racer]

That's the problem with small samples. What's the signal and what's the noise? A grainy picture becomes more clear the more snapshots you have. The signal rises and the noise averages out.

 

One of the best things any person can do is to get an accessible book like The Drunkard's Walk or any statistical book in that genre and give a read or a listen. It does wonders for your outlook on life.

 

Well, at least you didn't tell me to get off your lawn :P

[#freejame]

0 if he is picking #1.  you take Matthews and let the phones ring off the hook for your new surplus at center.

I'm still expecting our odds to be middle of the pack. Obviously you take Matthews and then flip him to the Coyotes for OEL, Domi, and their first!

[woods-racer]

Read the Preface for The Drunkard's Walk.

 

Be here before Christmas.

 

Thanks SDS and 3 putt.

[Doohicksie]

On defense, it appears Pysyk meant more than we realized.

 

Speak for yourself.  Pysyk has been a stud in my mind, for quite some time.  I didn't think there was any good reason to send him down in 2013-14, unless they just wanted to protect him from the Tank (I ain't skeered to say it).  When he went down he was arguably our best defenseman.

[3putt]

I'm still expecting our odds to be middle of the pack. Obviously you take Matthews and then flip him to the Coyotes for OEL, Domi, and their first!

I would seriously consider that but I don't know if the Yotes would give up that much.  OEL their first and an NHL ready prospect maybe.  I think Domi is in their LT plans.

Speak for yourself.  Pysyk has been a stud in my mind, for quite some time.  I didn't think there was any good reason to send him down in 2013-14, unless they just wanted to protect him from the Tank (I ain't skeered to say it).  When he went down he was arguably our best defenseman.

Mark "Binky" Pysyk is sorely missed, if for know other reason than he is a calming influence on McCabe.  

[Claude_Verret]

That's the problem with small samples. What's the signal and what's the noise? A grainy picture becomes more clear the more snapshots you have. The signal rises and the noise averages out.

 

One of the best things any person can do is to get an accessible book like The Drunkard's Walk or any statistical book in that genre and give a read or a listen. It does wonders for your outlook on life.

 

I recommend this one..

 

Naked Statistics: Stripping the Dread from the Data

[jsb]

Speak for yourself.  Pysyk has been a stud in my mind, for quite some time.  I didn't think there was any good reason to send him down in 2013-14, unless they just wanted to protect him from the Tank (I ain't skeered to say it).  When he went down he was arguably our best defenseman.

Whoa, whoa, whoa, slow down big boy, his avg. TOI is 5-6th Dman this year. Far far away from best Dman status. He's basically was getting Weber and Colaiacovo minutes. Again far far away from best Dman status. I like the kid long term but he's no savior now nor will be in the future.

[woods-racer]

I recommend this one..

 

Naked Statistics: Stripping the Dread from the Data

 

I book marked that page.

[Huckleberry]

What are the odds GMTM moves up in the draft to get Chychrun to fill the hole in the d? 

 

He is the one I think we'll end up getting, no way we get the #1 pick, that is for the oilers :D