Sabres 2015-2016 Stats

[WildCard]

So, I figured we could have a thread for stats specific to the Sabres, or even the league if you really want. Just somewhere to post all the graphs, charts, and other stats you find that you want to discuss or think sheds some light on what we see on the ice. I brought this post over from earlier to start it off

 

This just in, we're really, scary good actually. But, unbearably unlucky

 

PDO is the sum of a team's 5v5 shooting percentage (the number of goals they score divided by the number of shots on goal they generate) and their 5v5 save percentage (the number of shots their goalies stop divided by the number of shots on goal they allow).

 

‏@TSNBobMcKenzie

“@Classlicity: Scoring Chances vs PDO thru 11/10. blank area "normal" colors very high/low. ” My fave coloured chart.

 

More stuff (should we just make a thread for Sabres stats, or league stats?) 

 

Same chart, but analyzes our golies instead

https://twitter.com/TSNBobMcKenzie/status/664506813082116097

[Doohicksie]

My problem with fancy stats is I don't understand them.  I mean, what's PDO?  It says puck luck but that means nothing to me.

Good idea for a thread though.  Maybe I'll figure some of this stuff out.

[WildCard]

My problem with fancy stats is I don't understand them.  I mean, what's PDO?  It says puck luck but that means nothing to me.

 

Good idea for a thread though.  Maybe I'll figure some of this stuff out.

Here's a short article on PDO in layman's terms

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2011/10/28/2520115/pdo-if-you-were-going-to-understand-just-one-nhl-statistic

[Doohicksie]

And SCF is the percent of Scoring Chances For divided by Total Scoring Chances of both teams?

[WildCard]

Here is a great breakdown into easier terms by SI on Fenwick, Corsi, PDO, and others

http://www.si.com/nhl/2014/09/28/fancy-stats-primer-advanced-analytics-corsi-fenwick-pdo-qualcomp

 

And another, probably better/easier explanation

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2014/7/17/5901395/underlying-metrics-are-stupid-easy

[Doohicksie]

....and that's where my eyes glaze over.

[X. Benedict]

....and that's where my eyes glaze over.

none of it is really hard. It comes down to who is shooting more. 

[WildCard]

‏@BNHarrington  13m13 minutes ago

#Sabres when trailing after two periods after tonight's win: 3-13-2, tied w/LA for NHL lead w/8 pts. Last year: 3-37-2. 2013-14: 3-39-4.

‏And here's the article on dumping vs. carrying it in that TrueBlue sent me, Brawndo. Let me know what you think. I found it kind of funny they used Sabres stats in that

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/Using%20Zone%20Entry%20Data%20To%20Separate%20Offensive,%20Neutral,%20And%20Defensive%20Zone%20Performance.pdf

Edited December 15, 2015 by WildCard

[Brawndo]

‏@BNHarrington 13m13 minutes ago

#Sabres when trailing after two periods after tonight's win: 3-13-2, tied w/LA for NHL lead w/8 pts. Last year: 3-37-2. 2013-14: 3-39-4.

‏And here's the article on dumping vs. carrying it in that TrueBlue sent me, Brawndo. Let me know what you think. I found it kind of funny they used Sabres stats in that

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/Using%20Zone%20Entry%20Data%20To%20Separate%20Offensive,%20Neutral,%20And%20Defensive%20Zone%20Performance.pdf

Thanks Wild!

[WildCard]

https://twitter.com/BuffaloSabres/status/685519633546362880

[WildCard]

Why is goal support and record important for a goalie? They go hand in hand, and really don't dictate anything about his play

 

Holy ###### there has to be some sort of Corsi for goalies....yup, here we are.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2016_goalies.html

 

Quality Starts and Quality Start %: 

 

 

And, hold on to your hats here, cause guess what?  Johnson is below average in BOTH of these categories, ranking 26th in QS, and 46th in QS%. And, wanna know how we know these stats are useful? Because the conventional thinking on who the top goalies in the league are appear at the top of these lists:

 

QS:

Crawford, Schneider, Lundqvist, Holtby, Quick

 

QS% gives you a simlar top 5, although I'm only considering those goalies with above 20 GP.

 

 

There's also ASV% (Adjusted Save Percentage)

 

 

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=744483

 

Who are our top 5 goalies here (played above 1000 minutes):

http://war-on-ice.com/goalietable.html

 

Reimer: ASV% = 95.30, SV% = 95.29 => (closer shots)

Mrazek: ASV% = 94.61, SV% = 94.79 => (further shots)

Schneider: ASV% = 93.78, SV% = 94.0 => (further shots)

Lundqvist: ASV% = 93.85, SV% = 93.99 => (closer shots)

Luongo: ASV% = 93.47, SV% = 93.94 => (further shots)

Holtby: ASV% = 93.72, SV% = 93.85 => (closer shots)

 

Where is Johnson on this list? 18th. Oddly enough, right ahead of Tuukka Rask

 

Johnson: ASV% = 92.25, SV% = 92.54 => (easier shots faced)

Rask: ASV% = 92.28, SV% = 92.53 => (easier shots faced)

 

This also happens to be Rask's worst season he's ever had as a starter I believe, and Johnson's 2nd best 

 

 

 

Posted this in the GDT, figured it belongs here. Here is the article detailing goalie's advanced stats

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=744483

Edited January 25, 2016 by WildCard

[WildCard]

Found it. FF% Close accurately predicts a team's playoff chances 75% of the time since 2007-08. Those above 50% are likely in the playoffs. This year, LAK lead the league with 57.84%, and Buffalo is 47.21%. FF% Close is basically FF%, though it only counts shots in close games, so it takes away blow outs and the Alamo mode. We rank 28th in FF% Close, at 46.1%. The LAK lead the league at 57..4%

 

FF% Close is very good for possession stats. Not surprisingly, Dallas, Nashville, and LAK lead the league. Here are the anomalies of FF% Close this season, so far: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/teamstats.php?disp=1&db=201516&sit=5v5close&sort=FFPCT&sortdir=DESC

 

Anaheim = 53.9%, 5 points out

Montreal = 52.6%, 3 points out.

Carolina = 52.4%, 1 point out 

Winnipeg = 50.4%, 9 points out 

 

------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Washington = 49.6%, in the playoffs

NYI = 48.8%, in the playoffs

Detroit = 48.6%, in the playoffs

Florida = 48.1%, in the playoffs

And, my favorite, Arizona = 44.8%, in the playoffs, and last in the league

 

 

So, it's not the end-all-be-all of indicators, but it's pretty solid. Things to keep in mind,

a) We're only at the ASB

b) Possession can be negated by bad finishing and terrible goal-tending (Looking at you, Montreal, who've had the worst goal-tending since Price went out)

c) Poor possession can be negated by finishers (Washington)

d) Poor possession can be negated by goal-tending (NYR, Florida)

 

 

Other fun facts: 

Wanna know how good Babcock really is? Toronto is at 47.8%

Ottawa blows, and is at 45.3%

Columbus is at 48.6%

 

 

P.S.: Don't ever use NHL.com's advanced stats, they blow. 

P.P.S: Make sure you have the right year you're looking at 

Edited January 28, 2016 by WildCard

[WildCard]

I'm going to continue to flood this thread, even if it means I make it 3 pages of my own ramblings  :D 
 

Aren't Weber's advanced stats decent compared to the other Sabres defensemen?

I was hoping nobody would notice this, but......
 
Player 1: 
Corsi Rel%: -6.2
FF% Rel: -.70
 
Weber:
Corsi Rel%: 4.8
FF% Rel: 5.2
 
Weber's advanced stats aren't only good, they're really ###### good. There's a reason people have stopped complaining about him about 2 months ago
 
But, here is where context matters. Woods is right, Weber's stats only look good in light of the quality of competition he faces
 
Player 1: 
Corsi rel QoC: 1.536
 
 
Weber: 
Corsi rel QoC: -.163
 
So while Weber isn't the best defenesman on our team, and still not a top pairing guy, he's improved a lot. The top stats for Weber are career highs for him, by a lot. His career numbers are at -1.2 and -0.7. He's literally been playing 5 times better than he has his entire career

 

The 'Rel' stands for relative, and it's relative to the rest of your team. Hence why we have Corsi rel QoC, which is relative to the quality of competition you face. IMO, the latter is a more accurate reflection of a player

Edited February 2, 2016 by WildCard

[WildCard]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">With last night's win, the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Sabres?src=hash">#Sabres</a>swept their season series with Carolina. Here's a look at the season as a whole: <a href="https://t.co/52yKCvZMQz">pic.twitter.com/52yKCvZMQz</a></p>— Buffalo Sabres Stats (@SabresStats) <a href="https://twitter.com/SabresStats/status/712632748914008065">March 23, 2016</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

 

Why can't I embed tweets?

 

Edited March 23, 2016 by WildCard