Future Sabres: Identifying the core

[nfreeman]

Oh, it's GoDD.... just stirring the pot.

I should have listened 

 

I'd like to ask that we just engage in hockey talk without bringing in baggage from other threads.

 

All those guys will still be in their mid late 20s. Their style of game is so much more important.

 

You just need look back. You roll the dice on Vanek, Pominville and Tallinder....you let Dumont, Grier, and McKee walk. It was over before it started, and even still having Drury and Briere couldn't stop the plane from stalling.

 

Presidents Trophy or Stanley Cup?

 

And I am sorry to have insulted Vanek, Pominville and Tallinder as odds are they will end up with more successful careers than the 3 people currently here. I would settle for the same type of career as long as Murray sticks to his plan.

 

And Connolly, and Roy, and Max...

 

Now I'm sad.

[That Aud Smell]

And I am sorry to have insulted Vanek, Pominville and Tallinder as odds are they will end up with more successful careers than the 3 people currently here. 

 

I'd take that action, were I so inclined.

 

If they'd hung onto Dumont, Grier, and McKee in favour of Vanek, Pominville, and Tallinder, the net effect would've almost certainly been the same -- just completed in a different way.

[Doohicksie]

I'd like to ask that we just engage in hockey talk without bringing in baggage from other threads.

 

Why do you hate pot-stirrers?  They make the conversation so much more interesting.

[That Aud Smell]

Of course, had they held onto a healthier mix of the right guys ... .

 

Now I too am sad.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

Of course, had they held onto a healthier mix of the right guys ... .

 

Now I too am sad.

That's the key.

 

If Eichel puts on 20 lbs and is willing to take a beating in the next few years, yeah, he's in your core and your best player. Vanek drove to the net and took slashes as a rookie.

 

If Ristolainen plays a tough defensive game and doesn't avoid being decisive in his decisions then he will be in your core. Remember when people here were lobbying for Tallinder to get Norris votes?

 

If Reinhart keeps progressing and is sturdy in his d and disruptive in front of the net then sure he is a valuable member of the core. Right now he's probably safe to be a Jochen Hecht, but he is improving.

 

Murray knows what he's doing.

[qwksndmonster]

If you are going to win a cup, then your core right now is O'Reilly, Kane, Bogosian, and Girgensons.

 

If you are just happy getting in the playoffs on a consistant basis then you throw in names like Eichel, Ristolainen and maybe Reinhart.

 

The first 4 can win it without the last 3 but not vice versa.

 

Guys like Gorges and Deslauriers to go with the first 4 are what will get you a Cup.

I agreed with what Smell said, but taking it even further:  If this team wins a cup in the next 5-6 years (assuming GMTM's plan doesn't change dramatically), it'll flow through O'Reilly, Eichel, Risto, and Reinhart.  Girgensons, Bogosian, and Kane all could play important roles (Kane and Girgensons especially), but those guys are much more replaceable. 

 

Our true disagreement seems to stem from the fact that I take it as a given that Eichel and Samson will continue to grow and improve.

... doesn't avoid being decisive in his decisions...

I couldn't stop laughing at this.

Edited December 7, 2015 by qwksndmonster

[That Aud Smell]

That's the key.

 

If Eichel puts on 20 lbs and is willing to take a beating in the next few years, yeah, he's in your core and your best player. Vanek drove to the net and took slashes as a rookie.

 

If Ristolainen plays a tough defensive game and doesn't avoid being decisive in his decisions then he will be in your core. Remember when people here were lobbying for Tallinder to get Norris votes?

 

If Reinhart keeps progressing and is sturdy in his d and disruptive in front of the net then sure he is a valuable member of the core. Right now he's probably safe to be a Jochen Hecht, but he is improving.

 

Murray knows what he's doing.

 

This is good stuff.

 

I expect Eichel to trend in that direction. He's just a kid, for now. I think he'll get to where he needs to be (literally) in order to be that guy.

 

The Tallinder flashback is well-taken. I DO remember when he was in the conversation. Of course, that was back when no one could lay a hand on anyone coming into the zone.

 

I think Reinhart's floor is already higher than a Hecht at his peak. I'm not sure about a player to choose to express that, though. Is Oates still his ceiling?

[woods-racer]

In my opinion after reading everyone's posts to win a cup you need a skill core, and I hate to say it this way but it most accurately describes it, a hard core. The skill core is most often only to begotten as early round draft picks, top 10. The hard core are later rounders, not a dime a dozen, but replaceable and it may take 4-5 players a year going through Juniors/Rochester to get the one the team needs. So members of the hard core that find another team willing to pay them beyond their salary cap era value are the most easily to let go, because there is a stock pile ready to replace them.

 

It's not a question of the value of the player on the ice to get a Cup because it takes all types, but the replacement value in the draft that decides the core.

[Doohicksie]

It's not a question of the value of the player on the ice to get a Cup because it takes all types, but the replacement value in the draft that decides the core.

 

I think this is the key.  The knock on Edmonton is so many of their picks represent essentially the same thing:  a high-skill scoring forward.  The recent whoopin' notwithstanding, I think Edmonton needs to round out their talent a bit more, moving one of those high-end guys for some D and grinders.

 

I think the Sabres already have the beginnings of that- Girgs, Deslauriers, Larsson, Foligno all could be part of that hard-to-play-against core.  Basically you have two scoring lines, and two lines that eat minutes without getting outscored (or maybe 3 and 1).  But because those guys are not necessarily high-skilled draft picks, they are generally regarded as easier shoes (skates) to fill.

[3putt]

The lunch pail is strong with this one.

 

You need high-end talent and the deep character guys in order to win a Cup. Yin and Yang in balance. Those first four can no more win it without the other three, than the other three without the first four.

Laughed out loud during a board meeting after reading this.  I blamed it on a board members Christmas tie.

[That Aud Smell]

I think this is the key.  The knock on Edmonton is so many of their picks represent essentially the same thing:  a high-skill scoring forward.  The recent whoopin' notwithstanding, I think Edmonton needs to round out their talent a bit more, moving one of those high-end guys for some D and grinders.

 

I think the Sabres already have the beginnings of that- Girgs, Deslauriers, Larsson, Foligno all could be part of that hard-to-play-against core.  Basically you have two scoring lines, and two lines that eat minutes without getting outscored (or maybe 3 and 1).  But because those guys are not necessarily high-skilled draft picks, they are generally regarded as easier shoes (skates) to fill.

 

Man, I hope so.

 

Laughed out loud during a board meeting after reading this.  I blamed it on a board members Christmas tie.

 

:w00t:

[dudacek]

Murrays core is

Eichel, Reinhart, OReilly, Kane, Zemgus, Risto, Bogo, Lehner and an LD to be named later.

Only one who is playing at that level is ROR, though Kane and Risto may be there by season's end.

 

Will be interesting to see how patient Murray is with that group.

[Hoss]

Only if you're pushing the timetable. In three years, that logic flips. Eichel, Risto and Reinhart are your core. ROR is still prominent. Kane is only here still if he's scoring. Bogo will be banged up and slowing down but hopefully still effective. Girgs is here centering the third line, fighting of some younger guy for the job.

In three years Ryan O'Reilly is going to be 27 years old with several years left on his contract. I see no reason to believe he's going to do anything but improve.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

Murrays core is

Eichel, Reinhart, OReilly, Kane, Zemgus, Risto, Bogo, Lehner and an LD to be named later.

Only one who is playing at that level is ROR, though Kane and Risto may be there by season's end.

 

Will be interesting to see how patient Murray is with that group.

This is fair. If the kids don't develop Murray will look like a chump. They pretty much have to be the core 3 years from now.

 

On that note, I just saw a horse at Zia Park that was purchased for 1 million run for maiden claiming.

[Doohicksie]

Man, I hope so.

 

This is a pivotal year for Larsson.  I think he has a high probability of being a key to the team's success, but he isn't yet established enough to say that with certainty.  I think the same is actually true of Girgensons, although Girgs is better established coming into this season.  And really Foligno and DLo are in that same boat.  Energy guys and shutdown guys are easier to replace than high-skill guys, so if GMTM decides he's not happy with the overall effect, he'll probably dump what he perceives the weakest link to be and go shopping.

On that note, I just saw a horse at Zia Park that was purchased for 1 million run for maiden claiming.

 

I have no idea what that means or what its relevance is to this discussion.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

 

I have no idea what that means or what its relevance is to this discussion.

Sorry. It means someone paid 1 million for a horse that never ran a race, it was a favorite its first few races, still hasn't won a race, and you can buy it for a few grand now.

[dudacek]

Sorry. It means someone paid 1 million for a horse that never ran a race, it was a favorite its first few races, still hasn't won a race, and you can buy it for a few grand now.

Isn't that what tanking pretty much was all about?

An educated gamble?

 

For every Chicago and Tampa there is an Edmonton and a Florida.

 

We're probably going to need a Hossa trade, a Keith 2nd rounder and/or a Johnson sleeper pick.

 

People want you to believe otherwise, but there is a certain amount of luck involved.

[WildCard]

Isn't that what tanking pretty much was all about?

An educated gamble?

 

For every Chicago and Tampa there is an Edmonton and a Florida.

 

We're probably going to need a Hossa trade, a Keith 2nd rounder and/or a Johnson sleeper pick.

 

People want you to believe otherwise, but there is a certain amount of luck involved.

The point of the Tank is to eliminate as much of that luck as possible

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

Isn't that what tanking pretty much was all about?

An educated gamble?

 

For every Chicago and Tampa there is an Edmonton and a Florida.

 

We're probably going to need a Hossa trade, a Keith 2nd rounder and/or a Johnson sleeper pick.

 

People want you to believe otherwise, but there is a certain amount of luck involved.

For sure, but Murray had little choice. The franchise was a disaster.

 

My guess is that Murray takes much more pride and thinks he can build a winner easier by taking value guys in the draft. He is a pure scout. If you don't think you have an advantage over the guy next to you because of your eye, then you shouldn't be in the game.

 

There is no value in tanking from a GM standpoint. A blind monkey in cement shoes can make those picks.

 

The value is in trading for guys like Kane and Bogosian who are born leaders with talent but have been mismanaged and giving up nice fellas with head problems.

 

The value is in getting a guy at 20 who should have gone 8.

 

Sorry for the horseracing terms, but Murray himself said he'd rather talk horses than hockey. He also said the best chance to win the big race is to spread the budget over a handful of nice horses rather than relying one big horse at the top.

[nfreeman]

For sure, but Murray had little choice. The franchise was a disaster.

 

My guess is that Murray takes much more pride and thinks he can build a winner easier by taking value guys in the draft. He is a pure scout. If you don't think you have an advantage over the guy next to you because of your eye, then you shouldn't be in the game.

 

There is no value in tanking from a GM standpoint. A blind monkey in cement shoes can make those picks.

 

The value is in trading for guys like Kane and Bogosian who are born leaders with talent but have been mismanaged and giving up nice fellas with head problems.

 

The value is in getting a guy at 20 who should have gone 8.

 

Sorry for the horseracing terms, but Murray himself said he'd rather talk horses than hockey. He also said the best chance to win the big race is to spread the budget over a handful of nice horses rather than relying one big horse at the top.

 

Good post.

[dudacek]

Good post.

Indeed.

 

The Kane and ROR trades are all the proof you need.

Reinhart over Draisaitl and Bennet and Lehner over a first rounder are two others.

Edited December 8, 2015 by dudacek

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

Thanks.

 

I never knew Murray was a horse guy because I don't follow the trotters. Maybe SDS knew because Murray's dad was a trainer for decades.

[That Aud Smell]

Thanks.

 

I never knew Murray was a horse guy because I don't follow the trotters. Maybe SDS knew because Murray's dad was a trainer for decades.

Confused.

 

You're a horse guy, yeah?

 

(What's a trotter, maybe?)

[woods-racer]

Confused.

 

You're a horse guy, yeah?

 

(What's a trotter, maybe?)

 

The horse and buggy dude. They don't interact with the thoroughbred folk. It's about as different as curling and hockey.

 

Trotter, because they trot. If the break their trot, they forfeit the race.

Edited December 8, 2015 by Woods-Racer

[Stoner]

Future and core, two dirty words in Sabres hockey. ###### the future. I hope GMTM has more Kane (edit: and ROR!) trades up his sleeve.

Edited December 8, 2015 by pASabreFan