Future Sabres: Identifying the core

[Hoss]

The early season seems to have left a lot of fans wanting more. It's understandable with how the last two seasons went down and the amount of turnover this roster saw. However, it simply isn't and never was going to happen overnight.

The path this franchise went down has been grueling and something they've never done before. It's seen a ton of results in other cities, so why not here? I anticipate it'll turn out to be the right move and bring success this city has never seen from its hockey team.

 

How long will that take? Well, let's look at the teams everybody brings up when talking about this strategy: Pittsburgh and Chicago.

 

Chicago Blackhawks

High draft picks: Jonathan Toews (2nd - 2006), Patrick Kane (1st - 2007)

Points by season prior to Cup: 65 (drafted Toews), 71 (drafted Kane), 88, 104 (lost WCF), 112 (won Cup)

Key moves: Hit big on Duncan Keith at 54th overall and Niklas Hjalmarsson at 108th; acquired Patrick Sharp and Marian Hossa to supplement youth

 

Pittsburgh Penguins

High draft picks: Marc-Andre Fleury (1st - 2003), Evgeni Malkin (2nd - 2004), Sidney Crosby (1st - 2005), Jordan Staal (2nd - 2006)

Points by season prior to Cup: 58 (drafted Malkin), lockout (drafted Crosby), 58 (drafted Staal), 105 (lost 1st rd), 102 (lost SCF), 99 (won SC)

Key moves: Drafted high

 

 

The difference between these two is clear: Chicago hit big on a few other moves while Pittsburgh hit big on their draftees and rode them.

 

Also want to point out a side note: when teams apply these strategies it often takes a few coaches to get it right.

Chicago Coaches: Coaches: Trent Yawney (2005-2006), Denis Savard (2006-2008), Joel Quenneville (Cup winner)

Pittsburgh Coaches: Ed Olczyk (2003-2005), Michael Therrien (2005-2009), Dan Byslma (Cup winner)

 

 

TL;DR: This is going to take more than a handful of games. It's likely to take a few years, but when it happens it can happen quick. These teams were at the bottom of the barrel and needed to work the pieces together to hoist the Cup. It seems like we're more likely to follow the Chicago model because we've made some big moves outside of our high picks and had a ton of other picks to (hopefully) hit on.

 

Regardless of what happens on the ice over the course of the early months and/or the entire season it's premature to start questioning Murray and co. From the time we started down this road to the second GMTM said "Buffalo selects Jack Eichel" it was known the road was going to be a long one. Keep this in mind before you step closer to the edge.

Edited December 7, 2015 by Hoss

[darksabre]

[Claude_Verret]

Whether cup contender or shart hopeful, any season is a marathon, not a sprint. In the meantime enjoy the dawn of entertaining hockey, if wins aren't coming more consistently at this time next year then bitch away.

[waldo]

Just four or five more years. LOL

[Brawndo]

Hoss great post.

 

Claude very well put

[Hoss]

Whether cup contender or shart hopeful, any season is a marathon, not a sprint. In the meantime enjoy the dawn of entertaining hockey, if wins aren't coming more consistently at this time next year then bitch away.

Pretty much. I might even given it a year and a half before I start to worry much about wins and losses. Obviously if they put up less points this year than they did the last two I'll worry, but if there's some improvement I'll be satisfied for the time being.

[inkman]

I've been thoroughly disappointed with Sabres fans this season so far. There was no way a team turns over 3/4 of its roster and it just all of a sudden gels. If this team is any good this year, and the eyeball test says yes, some time is needed. The D and goaltending are big question marks. We won't know what we have there for half a season. Then forwards are good. They look good. They are just a half step off.

 

I honestly thought buffalo fans were smarter than this. Maybe it's just impatience with all the losing. It's going to take time. You better find a way to understand the process so you can enjoy the journey. These are our guys. It's going to happen. Just hold on.

[Stoner]

Nice cherrypicking, Hoss.

[dudacek]

You know I don't think there is enough of a negative reaction to warrant much disappointment in the fans.

I'd say the vast majority of the board is pretty happy with what they've seen so far, has been patient with the lack of wins, and is taking a long view on this season.

Not much to see here.

[Stoner]

You know I don't think there is enough of a negative reaction to warrant much disappointment in the fans.

I'd say the vast majority of the board is pretty happy with what they've seen so far, has been patient with the lack of wins, and is taking a long view on this season.

Not much to see here.

Oh, no, heaven's to Betsy, one poster had the temerity to question GMTM last night. The hammer must be brought down. People (OK, one person) has to fall in line. It's fall. Strawman time.

[Hoss]

Nice cherrypicking, Hoss.

 

Oh, no, heaven's to Betsy, one poster had the temerity to question GMTM last night. The hammer must be brought down. People (OK, one person) has to fall in line. It's fall. Strawman time.

This thread wasn't a response to any individuals. It was from my own thoughts and "research." There have been multiple Sabres fans (Sabres fans =/= board posters only) who have been throwing their hands up wondering why the team isn't tearing it up yet... This was a reminder that the process is long and expecting them to be there right away misses the point.

Edited October 25, 2015 by Hoss

[Stoner]

This thread wasn't a response to any individuals. It was from my own thoughts and "research." There have been multiple Sabres fans (Sabres fans =/= board posters only) who have been throwing their hands up wondering why the team isn't tearing it up yet... This was a reminder that the process is long and expecting them to be there right away misses the point.

Only the most casual fan would expect the turnaround to be instantly complete. But it's OK to be upset with a 7-2 loss and question what's going on. It's OK to not buy into a "yay, we look better, nice try Dakota" mindset. Really, it is.

[inkman]

Only the most casual fan would expect the turnaround to be instantly complete. But it's OK to be upset with a 7-2 loss and question what's going on. It's OK to not buy into a "yay, we look better, nice try Dakota" mindset. Really, it is.

It's ok but it also gives us a window into the "casual" fan. Anyone anticipating instant success is uh...casual I guess.

[Hoss]

It's OK to not buy into a "yay, we look better, nice try Dakota" mindset. Really, it is.

Nothing I said counteracts that. I actually had a few posts in the game day thread last night bemoaning the "we'll get results eventually" &  "they'll get better if they keep trying" posts. I'm not saying we should be giving everybody a free pass, but again: the sky isn't falling, it's just under construction.

 

Being upset about a lack of results is natural and okay.

[bunomatic]

I questioned Murray for the first time since the hiring I think when I suggested he may have screwed up the goaltender siteeeeation. I'm in no way a casual fan and I realize this takes time but I see improvement. Vast improvement over the last two years. Actually I find this brand of hockey more exciting than a good amount of time while Lindy was here. There really isn't an issue. With improved expectations comes a bit of a letdown in a rebuild such as this. Murrays still the man in my book. I just wish the goal scorers on this team weren't seeing a net the size of a credit card.

[PromoTheRobot]

It's hard to imagine any team looking as bad as the tank teams, yet our results are the same.  I know it's a matter of time before they all get it, but right know I just shake my head.

I questioned Murray for the first time since the hiring I think when I suggested he may have screwed up the goaltender siteeeeation. I'm in no way a casual fan and I realize this takes time but I see improvement. Vast improvement over the last two years. Actually I find this brand of hockey more exciting than a good amount of time while Lindy was here. There really isn't an issue. With improved expectations comes a bit of a letdown in a rebuild such as this. Murrays still the man in my book. I just wish the goal scorers on this team weren't seeing a net the size of a credit card.

Maybe we are double-secret tanking?

[...]

The Sabres let Ted Black walk too soon.

[apuszczalowski]

I have never been impressed with Murray, he seems a bit cocky for someone who has never held this position before

 

So far he hasn't wowed me with any deal as he seems to not care what he has to spend to get what he wants and overpays for it

 

Is he an improvement over Regier though, definitely, but then I believe even the dumbest Chimp would have been an improvement over him.......

 

This idea that there is some set path that you have to follow and that it takes time to get this team turned around is completely bogus in the age of free agency. This team is weak on defence right now (not horrible but not anything to write home about) and has nothing in place in net right now. I didn't have a problem with lehner coming in to compete for the #1 spot, but there seems to be no backup plan aside from hoping in a few years there will be a starter ready down in Rochester. With lehner going down for some time it would have been nice to see the Sabres atleast try and show that they weren't just going to coast through another year and not make an attempt at going for a playoff spot and try to get a veteran to fill the crease, instead they just say they are going to ride Johnson and see what happens. I don't expect them to make the playoffs this year, but I do expect them to atleast try and make it look like thats the goal. Winning and trying to even squeak into the playoffs in the 8th spot isn't going to ruin this team or set them back. Unfortunately alot of Lemmings seem to believe that they have to follow one path that takes years before they can start to say the words playoffs.

[Neo]

Hoss great post.

Claude very well put

Seconded. I'm so pleased with the talent and the process that I'm not counting points.

[WildCard]

Excellent post Hoss

[SabresFanInRochester]

I've been thoroughly disappointed with Sabres fans this season so far. There was no way a team turns over 3/4 of its roster and it just all of a sudden gels. If this team is any good this year, and the eyeball test says yes, some time is needed. The D and goaltending are big question marks. We won't know what we have there for half a season. Then forwards are good. They look good. They are just a half step off.

 

I honestly thought buffalo fans were smarter than this. Maybe it's just impatience with all the losing. It's going to take time. You better find a way to understand the process so you can enjoy the journey. These are our guys. It's going to happen. Just hold on.

The sound of reason: Give it some time. 1/10 into the season isn't time to trade everyone away and start over. We just did that!

 

I personally cannot wait for Bogosian to enter the lineup. I think he will make a difference. Our goaltending is suspect, which was a wildcard coming into the year. With Lehner injured, we still don't know what we have there. I like what I see out of Eichel, Kane, Ennis, O'Reilly, Reinhart, and Deslauriers. I'm okay with Moulson. I think Girgenson is starting to find his way, but doesn't look as dominant as last year. Foligno, Gionta, and Larrson are pegs getting plugged in and I am not sure I have seen them fit and belong anywhere yet. I don't like McGinn on the top line. Just doesn't seem to match the level of play that is around him.

 

I don't know about the whole let's just find two players who fit together and plug in a third, but time will tell if we find a consistent line.

 

Go Sabres!

 

I am WAY more excited about what the Sabres have going on this year as opposed to the Bills. It's still a race to see which of the two makes the playoffs first. I think we will have to wait until 2017 to find out the answer. 

[North Buffalo]

Patience, who said anything about patience. Really, patience?? I mean patience? No way jose!

 

End of tank did mean a better record and TM was a bit flip on the goaltender deal, now its coming home to roost. Also, still short on D, missing Bogo hurts.

 

So screw patience...:)

[deluca67]

Only the most casual fan would expect the turnaround to be instantly complete. But it's OK to be upset with a 7-2 loss and question what's going on. It's OK to not buy into a "yay, we look better, nice try Dakota" mindset. Really, it is.

What is there to be upset about? Losing to a Canadians team that is the midst of a historic run? They are 9-0 and outscoring opponents 35-12. Lose to Toronto 7-2 or Florida, then yeah, I can see concern creeping in. The Sabres and Canadians are at opposite ends of the process, the Sabres are just starting out and the Canadians are fine tuning.  

 

 

I have never been impressed with Murray, he seems a bit cocky for someone who has never held this position before

 

So far he hasn't wowed me with any deal as he seems to not care what he has to spend to get what he wants and overpays for it

 

Is he an improvement over Regier though, definitely, but then I believe even the dumbest Chimp would have been an improvement over him.......

 

This idea that there is some set path that you have to follow and that it takes time to get this team turned around is completely bogus in the age of free agency. This team is weak on defence right now (not horrible but not anything to write home about) and has nothing in place in net right now. I didn't have a problem with lehner coming in to compete for the #1 spot, but there seems to be no backup plan aside from hoping in a few years there will be a starter ready down in Rochester. With lehner going down for some time it would have been nice to see the Sabres atleast try and show that they weren't just going to coast through another year and not make an attempt at going for a playoff spot and try to get a veteran to fill the crease, instead they just say they are going to ride Johnson and see what happens. I don't expect them to make the playoffs this year, but I do expect them to atleast try and make it look like thats the goal. Winning and trying to even squeak into the playoffs in the 8th spot isn't going to ruin this team or set them back. Unfortunately alot of Lemmings seem to believe that they have to follow one path that takes years before they can start to say the words playoffs.

If the Sabres could have easily solidified their goaltending situation in just one off-season than everyone would be doing it.  I wasn't a fan of the Lehner trade, it was an over payment for what was until that point an average goalie. There just isn't a lot of great quality available around the league when it comes to goaltending. Much like QB's in the NFL.  The Sabres will have to be partly lucky to find a goaltender within the next few seasons unless the can trade for a quality starter or get lucky as they did with Miller as a 5th round pick. 

 

I've been thoroughly disappointed with Sabres fans this season so far. There was no way a team turns over 3/4 of its roster and it just all of a sudden gels. If this team is any good this year, and the eyeball test says yes, some time is needed. The D and goaltending are big question marks. We won't know what we have there for half a season. Then forwards are good. They look good. They are just a half step off.

 

I honestly thought buffalo fans were smarter than this. Maybe it's just impatience with all the losing. It's going to take time. You better find a way to understand the process so you can enjoy the journey. These are our guys. It's going to happen. Just hold on.

As an old-timer all you have to do is look at the picture in the Norm Lacombe thread as a reminder of how the process works and in most cases doesn't work. There was a ton of hope back then, I would say as much as there is now, there just isn't any guarantee it will. You mention late in this thread regarding the casual fan, I think that the casual fan you mention believes it's a matter of "when" this team wins a Cup over "if" this team will win a Cup. They see the names of the players acquired and expect instant success. It is a marathon as mentioned, not just within the season, but the entire process. It's also going to painful and it is more than likely that many of the names we currently see on the roster won't be a part of it, if they ever do win a cup.

 

Overall it's about patience and tempering fan expectations with realistic expectations.      

[Rasmus_]

Via Corey Pronmon on Twitter

 

 

Buffalo entered tonight with a Corsi% of 52%. There were 7 games last season total when they were over 50%. Courtesy @war_on_ice.

 

This is alone something to be somewhat optimistic about.  The Sabres have out shot their opponents in 6 of 8 games.  It's taking the little things out of life!

[2 minuter för grovbearbetn]

I dont understand the angst. Who really thought this was going to be a contending team this year? Did a few high scoring preseason games trick some into thinking the rebuild was complete? Sure, I'd like to see guys finish. Foligno, with an empty net in front of him, hits a stick that a D-man flicked toward the net in desperation - yeah, that made me a tad bitter. That said, our skill players are pretty decent overall. Going into the season our D was suspect at best. So far, some D-men have been surprises (McCabe) and some have been disappointments. But who was thinking our goaltending situation was solved? At best, Lehner was going to need to play himself back into shape. And he'll still have to in another 6 weeks.  

I see a team that started 4 rookies (Eichel, Samson, McCabe, and Ullmark). With that lineup in the first period I saw them control the puck in the Devils end and complete two line changes. Yeah, OK, we lost to the Devils. But like the Canadians game - which was closer than the score indicated - and the Tampa game, we competed with skill. Hockey is watchable again in Buffalo. 

 

My expectation was that - at best -we'd suck until Christmas. Then around January or so, we wouldn't suck as much. We had 54 points last year, I am expecting 70 - 80 points this year. I still think that's doable. 

 

Bottom line. Yeah, I am entertained. I couldn't say that the last 2 years.