Ryan O'Reilly and Jamie McGinn traded to Sabres

[SwampD]

Awesome

[Doohicksie]

i

 

Sorry, my sarcasm not showing again.

 

On another forum where I post, sarcastic posts were too often read in earnest, so people started using Courier as the sarcasm font:

 

Oh really?  You don't say!

[woods-racer]

On another forum where I post, sarcastic posts were too often read in earnest, so people started using Courier as the sarcasm font:

 

Oh really?  You don't say!

 

I like this Idea.

 

Very Original

[X. Benedict]

On another forum where I post, sarcastic posts were too often read in earnest, so people started using Courier as the sarcasm font:

 

Oh really?  You don't say!

 

This is sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo amusing. 

[LGR4GM]

we should use comic sans! for everyting

[Doohicksie]

we should use comic sans! for everyting

 

Yes.  Everyone's favorite font.

[darksabre]

Yes.  Everyone's favorite font.

 

my favorite font is papyrus. 

[X. Benedict]

X. Benedict Was Here. 

[Doohicksie]

we should use comic sans! for everyting

 

I joined a forum and put ! in one of my first thread titles there.  They put limits on my ability to post right away because their contention was that no thread should have ! in the title.  So now every single thread and comment I post has to be approved by a moderator before it appears.

[MattPie]

I joined a forum and put ! in one of my first thread titles there.  They put limits on my ability to post right away because their contention was that no thread should have ! in the title.  So now every single thread and comment I post has to be approved by a moderator before it appears.

 

I don't know if you read The Register (an IT news site), but they make fun of Yahoo! using titles like "Yahoo! Wants! to! merge! email! business! with! search!". That forum seems like an ideal place to do the same.

Edited October 20, 2015 by MattPie

[TrueBlueGED]

Ryan O'Reilly is not overpaid in the context of contracts that kick in when his does (if you want to bring in earlier contracts like Crosby's, fine, but you have to adjust for cap inflation and that back-diving contracts have been eliminated). Starting next season he will make $7.5 million per year, while Jonathan Toews makes $10.5 million...so O'Reilly will be 71% of Toews' cap hit. Can he give us 71% of Toews' value? I think so.

 

For his career, O'Reilly is a .58 PPG player...if you dump his first two seasons when he was seeing relatively limited ice time, he becomes a .71 PPG player. Toews is a career .89 PPG player, and if you dump his first two years like I did O'Reilly he's a .91 PPG player. So for a career, O'Reilly is producing 65% of Toews' offensive output, and dumping O'Reilly's first two seasons (I'm pretty sure nobody thinks he's only going to give us 26 points per year, so I think this is pretty fair to do) he comes in at 78% of Toews' scoring over the same time period. If we assume that O'Reilly is a little worse defensively, which I think is fair, we arrive at a player who is giving us exactly what we should expect given his contract. 

 

Disagree with me at your own peril! :devil:

Edited October 22, 2015 by TrueBlueGED

[Johnny DangerFace]

Can you compare him to other players besides those two?  I agree with you, just curious.  

[TrueBlueGED]

Can you compare him to other players besides those two?  I agree with you, just curious.  

 

Of course I can, but I'll just be blunt here: I have no desire to make the necessary cap inflation adjustments (and depending on the player, adjusting for the elimination of back diving contracts) to do so. 100% laziness on my part. I like the Toews comparison because I think they play a similar game, but my reluctance to bring other players into it really is primarily laziness.

[WildCard]

Of course I can, but I'll just be blunt here: I have no desire to make the necessary cap inflation adjustments (and depending on the player, adjusting for the elimination of back diving contracts) to do so. 100% laziness on my part. I like the Toews comparison because I think they play a similar game, but my reluctance to bring other players into it really is primarily laziness.

I was literally coming to this thread to hear your prediction on the cap space in future years. My concern isn't what you're paying him, but who else we have to pay. Risto, Kane, and Ennis will demand significant money to go along with Reinhart and Eichel. Does Chicago have those percentages of payroll dolled out as you've illustrated above in their core?

 

If it comes down to it, I honestly see O'Reilly staying and either Ennis or Kane leaving, probably Kane as he'll demand more money

Edited October 22, 2015 by WildCard

[Johnny DangerFace]

Of course I can, but I'll just be blunt here: I have no desire to make the necessary cap inflation adjustments (and depending on the player, adjusting for the elimination of back diving contracts) to do so. 100% laziness on my part. I like the Toews comparison because I think they play a similar game, but my reluctance to bring other players into it really is primarily laziness.

 

My only point is you always compare ROR to literally the two people with the highest capt hit.  Only a year before those contracts someone like giroux signed an 8 mil extension or something along those lines

[3putt]

Ryan O'Reilly is not overpaid in the context of contracts that kick in when his does (if you want to bring in earlier contracts like Crosby's, fine, but you have to adjust for cap inflation and that back-diving contracts have been eliminated). Starting next season he will make $7.5 million per year, while Jonathan Toews makes $10.5 million...so O'Reilly will be 71% of Toews' cap hit. Can he give us 71% of Toews' value? I think so.

 

For his career, O'Reilly is a .58 PPG player...if you dump his first two seasons when he was seeing relatively limited ice time, he becomes a .71 PPG player. Toews is a career .89 PPG player, and if you dump his first two years like I did O'Reilly he's a .91 PPG player. So for a career, O'Reilly is producing 65% of Toews' offensive output, and dumping O'Reilly's first two seasons (I'm pretty sure nobody thinks he's only going to give us 26 points per year, so I think this is pretty fair to do) he comes in at 78% of Toews' scoring over the same time period. If we assume that O'Reilly is a little worse defensively, which I think is fair, we arrive at a player who is giving us exactly what we should expect given his contract. 

In as little as his second year of this deal he may not have a center role. If, a big if, the plan works 15 and 23 are your top 2 centers. So the option is put him on the third as a enter or move him to the wing to ensure top minutes. If on the wing the role will be to score goals. I do not see the skill set to be a prolific scorer on the wing. He is a space eater. That works in year one and imho is extremely expensive as the two kids grow. He is essentially a part of the core because of the nature of the deal and I don't see where he fits in year three. Ymmv.

 

Disagree with me at your own peril! :devil:

How did that happen? Well it's in there anyway. The Staff reference was role not talent.

[TrueBlueGED]

My only point is you always compare ROR to literally the two people with the highest capt hit.  Only a year before those contracts someone like giroux signed an 8 mil extension or something along those lines

 

I just find them to be the closest comparables in large part because I keep seeing/hearing people say that O'Reilly is being paid like a superstar; well, those are the two nearest superstar contracts. Their contracts kick in this year, and O'Reilly's next year, so they're fairly close. And like I said, O'Reilly and Toews play a very similar game, while Giroux is much more of an offensive specialist.

 

Giroux's deal started last season, so there's 2 years of separation there and probably around $8 million in cap increases to account for. Let's say the cap is going to increase 5% next season, which I think is about the average increase since the lost season lockout. That would put it at 74.97, so let's round to $75 million. Giroux's contract is an $8.275 million AAV and kicked in when the cap was $64.3 million, so about 12.9% of the cap. Assuming the 5% cap growth projection comes to fruition, O'Reilly will be at about 10% of the cap. Whether he brings enough combined offense and defense to the table to justify that in comparison to Giroux's 12.9% hit, I'll let people judge for themselves. I think it's fairly clear where I stand :)

[TrueBlueGED]

 

I was literally coming to this thread to hear your prediction on the cap space in future years. My concern isn't what you're paying him, but who else we have to pay. Risto, Kane, and Ennis will demand significant money to go along with Reinhart and Eichel. Does Chicago have that percentages of payroll dolled out as you've illustrated above in their core?

 

If it comes down to it, honestly I see O'Reilly staying and either Ennis or Kane leaving, probably Kane as he'll demand more money

 

Chicago is such a hard case to compare to at the team level because Keith and Hossa are both on cap circumventing contracts that simply aren't possible anymore. I think it's fair to assume it'll be harder for every team to keep as large of a core together as Chicago has because of the new contract structure requirements.

 

Kane and Toews are each eating 14.7% of the team's cap this year (which is the first year of their new deals). If we use the 5% cap growth figure from my previous post, O'Reilly will be eating almost exactly 10% of the cap when his new deal kicks in. Personally I think those numbers look pretty fair--Toews and Kane are clearly better players, but their pay reflects that. Others can disagree, but in the proper context, it's certainly not wildly overpaying for O'Reilly's services unless he shows significant regression offensively.

 

But back to my original point on cap circumvention. Keith signed a 13 year deal with an AAV of a hair over $5.5 million. Well, the most a team can sign their own player for now is 8 years, so if we collapse those last 5 years on to the 8 to get a figure like what you'd expect to pay a player of his caliber now, it comes to an 8 year deal for an AAV of just over $7.9 million. The deal kicked in at the start of the 2009 season when the cap was $56.8 million, so with today's CBA that would have been about 13.9% of the cap...they managed to get him for 9.7%. Doing similar adjustments for Hossa (who they got as a UFA, so max contract of 7 years), in today's cap terms he'd have gobbled up 

15.9% of the cap, while because of a 12 year contract they were able to...*drum roll please*... secure him for 9.3% of the cap. Those are just massive savings the Hawks were able to secure through an avenue which simply no longer exists.

 

Bottom line, I think, is O'Reilly's contract is pretty representative of what Keith and Hossa got years ago. Compared to what those players would have gotten under the current CBA, O'Reilly is appropriately paid--they're both better, but he's eating up significantly less of the cap. The downside, naturally, is that the reality of the new CBA is what you alluded to with your second point--choices will become harder, and we're possibly going to have to say goodbye to more players than Chicago has had to (this is where we should pray for larger than expected cap increases, and for Murray to smartly give Risto and Girgs long-term deals rather than bridge contracts). The good news is every other team that appears to be poised for long-term competitiveness has to work within the same framework, and teams like Chicago that have gotten around it will start to decline by the time we're on the rise and hitting the cap crunch (Kane and Toews in their 30s, Keith and Seabrook upper 30s, Hossa presumably a corpse on skates, etc.).

 

Edit: BTW, I made these posts while I was supposed to be giving students feedback on their paper drafts. I shall forward their complaints regarding long response time to you guys :p

Edited October 22, 2015 by TrueBlueGED

[WildCard]

That was a be-a-u-tiful post True, very well done. Great numbers right there, it's posts like that that make this place so awesome. 

 

Well...I won't waive the towel yet, but that post has me coming a lot closer. The actual cap %'s of a players worth are very telling. That's insane that Chicago got Keith and Hossa for those numbers, without them there is no way they get beyond 2 Cups, or maybe even 1. 

[TrueBlueGED]

How did that happen? Well it's in there anyway. The Staff reference was role not talent.

 

I got the point :lol:

 

O'Reilly's best offensive season was on Duchene's wing, when he scored 28 goals and 64 points. His shooting percentage was also about 3.8 percentage points above his career average. How much of that was fortunate luck, and how much was the role change allowing him better shots/chances? I really don't know, it was only one season in that role after all. But even if he puts up something more like 25 goals and 60 points as a winger, that would still put him around the top-35 for goal scorers going off of last year's league numbers. That's kinda sad, but also a totally different conversation :lol:

 

Long term (see: next year or at worst 2 years from now) I really think our lines look like this, based on skill set and how I see them fitting together:

 

O'Reilly-Eichel-XXX

Kane-Reinhart-XXX

Girgensons-Larsson-XXX

 

Fill in the RW slots as you wish, but I think that's how it pairs up in my mind. Will we be able to retain all of them? I think so, but it's at least somewhat dependent upon what we do with Risto and Girgensons, and if we can jettison Moulson's soon-to-be decaying body within 3 years. I don't think O'Reilly's deal will prevent us from locking up our younger core pieces, but there's of course uncertainty involved.

[LGR4GM]

I thought we were all pretty good with ROR?  Good posts Blue

[Drunkard]

Ryan O'Reilly is not overpaid in the context of contracts that kick in when his does (if you want to bring in earlier contracts like Crosby's, fine, but you have to adjust for cap inflation and that back-diving contracts have been eliminated). Starting next season he will make $7.5 million per year, while Jonathan Toews makes $10.5 million...so O'Reilly will be 71% of Toews' cap hit. Can he give us 71% of Toews' value? I think so.

 

For his career, O'Reilly is a .58 PPG player...if you dump his first two seasons when he was seeing relatively limited ice time, he becomes a .71 PPG player. Toews is a career .89 PPG player, and if you dump his first two years like I did O'Reilly he's a .91 PPG player. So for a career, O'Reilly is producing 65% of Toews' offensive output, and dumping O'Reilly's first two seasons (I'm pretty sure nobody thinks he's only going to give us 26 points per year, so I think this is pretty fair to do) he comes in at 78% of Toews' scoring over the same time period. If we assume that O'Reilly is a little worse defensively, which I think is fair, we arrive at a player who is giving us exactly what we should expect given his contract. 

 

Disagree with me at your own peril! :devil:

 

Intangibles and 1 single solitary season with 20 goals is not worth a $50+ million dollar contract. Especially for a guy who just watches our highly touted rookie get knocked on his ass and doesn't even give a Tyler Myers or Paul Gaustad level response. Even Kessel would have swung his purse at the guy. Alexander Semin would have bitch slapped him. That's not leadership and not what you should expected out of the highest paid player on the team.

[Drunkard]

I got the point :lol:

 

O'Reilly's best offensive season was on Duchene's wing, when he scored 28 goals and 64 points. His shooting percentage was also about 3.8 percentage points above his career average. How much of that was fortunate luck, and how much was the role change allowing him better shots/chances? I really don't know, it was only one season in that role after all. But even if he puts up something more like 25 goals and 60 points as a winger, that would still put him around the top-35 for goal scorers going off of last year's league numbers. That's kinda sad, but also a totally different conversation :lol:

 

Long term (see: next year or at worst 2 years from now) I really think our lines look like this, based on skill set and how I see them fitting together:

 

O'Reilly-Eichel-XXX

Kane-Reinhart-XXX

Girgensons-Larsson-XXX

 

Fill in the RW slots as you wish, but I think that's how it pairs up in my mind. Will we be able to retain all of them? I think so, but it's at least somewhat dependent upon what we do with Risto and Girgensons, and if we can jettison Moulson's soon-to-be decaying body within 3 years. I don't think O'Reilly's deal will prevent us from locking up our younger core pieces, but there's of course uncertainty involved.

 

He's only scored 20 goals once in his entire career but you're going to posit 25 goals and 60 points for him. You take his best season and expect that to be the new norm. No wonder you think his contract is worth it. If I have to guess I'd put him at closer to 18 goals. Numbers that got Drew Stafford run out of town but will have O'Reilly worshipped for his thanks to his possession numbers (I'm guessing).

[Eleven]

Zadorov has been sent to the AHL.

[bob_sauve28]

Zadorov has been sent to the AHL.

Wow! 

 

Not saying he won't have a great career, but Colorado really said good bye to the present and hello to the future with that trade. Gees!