Trade ideas and speculation

[Eleven]

Wow.  I have some Faulkner stuff from my mom that I've never read.  Narnia once as a kid was great for me, but I never wanted to re-read them (still have them though along with the Space Trilogy by C.S. Lewis).  I like Cormac McCarthy but what I've read of him kind of depresses me.  Don't get me wrong, he's great, but some of the cruelty, etc. really gets to me for some reason.  His book with the wolf really fux with me, even now (All the Pretty Horses?).  I bought Cities of the Plains years ago and still haven't read it. 

 

As far as re-reading, I would gladly read any Vonnegut over and over again.  Planning on reading Eugene O'Neill's The Iceman Cometh again before the year is out.

 

McCarthy's fiction is about plight.  Sometimes that involves cruelty; sometimes it doesn't.  Cities of the Plain is amazing if for nothing else but the art of dialogue.

 

I didn't know CS Lewis wrote a space trilogy!  I'm on it.

 

Vonnegut is on my list of sometimes re-read.  Slaughterhouse-Five or Cats Cradle or Breakfast?  Sure.  But I'm not re-reading freaking Jailbird.

Hmm interesting.

 

Wait, this is a hockey thread?

[WildCard]

The only Kurt book I've read is Man Without A Country. He had a very unique writing style, very easy to read

[BagBoy]

Eleven

It;s interesting that you mentioned religious reasons for reading Narnia.  The Space Trilogy has a pretty interesting twist on religion itself.

 

Wild Card,

Yes, Kurt is the man.  Breakfast of Champions - I can't recommend it highly enough.

[WildCard]

Eleven

It;s interesting that you mentioned religious reasons for reading Narnia. The Space Trilogy has a pretty interesting twist on religion itself.

 

Wild Card,

Yes, Kurt is the man. Breakfast of Champions - I can't recommend it highly enough.

I have that book! I haven't gotten around to it yet. Working through Dune, Malazan, and The Dark Tower series right now.

[Eleven]

Eleven

It;s interesting that you mentioned religious reasons for reading Narnia.  The Space Trilogy has a pretty interesting twist on religion itself.

 

Wild Card,

Yes, Kurt is the man.  Breakfast of Champions - I can't recommend it highly enough.

 

Lewis was a religious writer.  Most of his writing was theology.

 

I have ordered the first book from the trilogy.  I'm not usually into space stuff, but I'll give it a shot.

 

 

I have that book! I haven't gotten around to it yet. Working through Dune, Malazan, and The Dark Tower series right now.

 

Put all of that nonsense down and read Breakfast of Champions or Slaughterhouse Five already.  Especially at your age.  (I find that Vonnegut wears off at about 30.)

[Eleven]

Ahhhh I'm so jealous of this. I have at least 200 books of my own that I've read, I'm obsessed with having a book collection. I dream of having a great study with a fireplace and a library

A +?

I reread all the HP books every summer.

 

Any chance you have recommendations and descriptions of some good math books?

 

I've read the Bible cover to cover. I've always wanted read the Quran and Torah

 

I don't know if they're still in print, but I just grabbed my two favorite pop-math books off of the shelf:

 

Archimedes' Revenge, by Paul Hoffman

 

Innumeracy, by John Allen Paulos

 

If you like codes and stuff like that, The Code Book by Simon Singh is great stuff, and the first three-quarters of it are intelligible to a layperson.

[pi2000]

Yeah, you got it.

 

 

I included Pysyk because we've always been told that he has great analytics, but warned that his sample size isn't very good. This shows he was indeed very sheltered and rarely played.

That's a pretty graph. I didn't realize how hard his job has been.

 

How much of his -68 would you attribute to that? Do you think he'll be a plus player this year?

[Eleven]

Ahhhh I'm so jealous of this. I have at least 200 books of my own that I've read, I'm obsessed with having a book collection. I dream of having a great study with a fireplace and a library

A +?

I reread all the HP books every summer.

 

Any chance you have recommendations and descriptions of some good math books?

 

I've read the Bible cover to cover. I've always wanted read the Quran and Torah

 

I don't know if they're still in print, but I just grabbed my two favorite pop-math books off of the shelf:

 

Archimedes' Revenge, by Paul Hoffman

 

Innumeracy, by John Allen Paulos

 

If you like codes and stuff like that, The Code Book by Simon Singh is great stuff, and the first three-quarters of it are intelligible to a layperson.

[Randall Flagg]

That's a pretty graph. I didn't realize how hard his job has been.

 

How much of his -68 would you attribute to that? Do you think he'll be a plus player this year?

It's a great site for stuff like that.

 

Quite a bit, especially at his age. Not sure if he'll be plus. If he isn't, I'll be more inclined to be upset with the team/system than with him or any other player in particular.

[nfreeman]

Flagg -- great chart. One question: is the quality of teammates metric limited to the player's team, or is it league-wide? I.e. does Risto's red color mean he's playing with the worst guys on the Sabres, or the worst guys in the NHL?

 

It's also worth noting that the chart really indicates not how productive each defenseman is, but rather how heavy and difficult of a workload he's bearing. So Gorges' chart probably doesn't look that much different from Risto's -- but no one would argue that Gorges should get a $40MM contract (leaving his age out of it for this purpose).

[TrueBlueGED]

That's a pretty graph. I didn't realize how hard his job has been.

 

How much of his -68 would you attribute to that? Do you think he'll be a plus player this year?

 

...all it took was a picture for you to get what we were all trying to say in words? I hate you.

[Randall Flagg]

Flagg -- great chart. One question: is the quality of teammates metric limited to the player's team, or is it league-wide? I.e. does Risto's red color mean he's playing with the worst guys on the Sabres, or the worst guys in the NHL?

 

It's also worth noting that the chart really indicates not how productive each defenseman is, but rather how heavy and difficult of a workload he's bearing. So Gorges' chart probably doesn't look that much different from Risto's -- but no one would argue that Gorges should get a $40MM contract (leaving his age out of it for this purpose).

I assume it uses the same Corsi rel measurement as the quality of competition one. Which means, by definition, it's relative to Buffalo Sabres players, if I understand correctly. So it's saying that the players Risto plays with have more shots against them than the team average when they're not on the ice. If the Sabres' best Corsi player is, say, O'Reilly, Risto doesn't play with him as often as others might, he gets the guys that get hemmed in their own zone more. And maybe he's part of the problem, which is something we could glean from stats that aren't on this chart, like you say. I just wanted to introduce the chart to give context to the +/- numbers and comparisons to Ristolainen's peers.

 

I'll actually put together the Sabres' chart quick. It's easier than picking random players from the pool of the NHL. 

[LGR4GM]

That's a pretty graph. I didn't realize how hard his job has been.

 

How much of his -68 would you attribute to that? Do you think he'll be a plus player this year?

If you wanna use his - from last year fine, I get that. Doing his career - ignores the giant gaping issue which was the tank.

[Randall Flagg]

So, I did a chart with these defensemen and switched the bubble color to indicate their Corsi relative instead of their quality of teammate.

This certainly follows logically. Players with better teammates and easier minutes help control play more.

 

I then did the Buffalo Sabres team as a whole, color of circle indicating quality of linemates:

I'm not sure what this means :lol:

 

But changing the color to the player's corsi relative gives this:

Which combines with my eye test to tell me that I never want to see Catenacci on the Sabres again, that Ryan O'Reilly is a horse, and Samson is a pretty good player. Kane also appears to tilt the ice, although since it's a CORSI measurement and not one of the other possession ones, he may be skewing his own numbers with the incredibly high volume of shots he takes, it might not actually mean he's controlling the puck/keeping it out of our zone. He may just spend a whole shift chasing the puck in our zone, and then take it while his linemates change and generate a shot and a rebound shot just like that. It's important to be aware of the limitations the data may have

Also, I'd guess that the main difference between Risto and Gorges comes from Risto getting Gorges' minutes + his own power play time.

And nfreeman, to your contract point, you never want to base your decision making purely on spreadsheets, for reasons like what you say. If we only read those goofy player comparison WOWY charts (I think those are the ones I mean) we'd have traded Risto for Kulikov, not Pysyk. I just love the context they can help provide.

[Hoss]

Can we get the HERO charts for Eleven's library?

[Thorner]

Another sincere thank you.  And the point about Bogosian might have to do w/ experience?  Not sure.

 

Also, you failed to address Rielly's spelling porblem.

:lol:

[Thorner]

Ahhhh I'm so jealous of this. I have at least 200 books of my own that I've read, I'm obsessed with having a book collection. I dream of having a great study with a fireplace and a library A +?I reread all the HP books every summer.

Any chance you have recommendations and descriptions of some good math books?

I've read the Bible cover to cover. I've always wanted read the Quran and Torah

Me too.

 

Lewis was a religious writer. Most of his writing was theology.

 

I have ordered the first book from the trilogy. I'm not usually into space stuff, but I'll give it a shot.

 

 

 

 

Put all of that nonsense down and read Breakfast of Champions or Slaughterhouse Five already. Especially at your age. (I find that Vonnegut wears off at about 30.)

Ya, Narnia itself is largely a Christian allegory, is it not?

 

It's an interesting tidbit that Lewis and Tolkien were such close friends, both very religious men, yet were so differing in their views on using allegory in their works. Although Lewis I believe did state he didn't actually technically consider Narnia an allegory specifically.

 

In any event, both Narnia and Rings have lots of Christian themes, admittedly so by the authors themselves.

Edited September 28, 2016 by Thorny

[pi2000]

...all it took was a picture for you to get what we were all trying to say in words? I hate you.

I love you too. Still think a 5yr deal is max he deserves.

 

Yeah it sucks he has difficult matchups on a team, but that doesn't automatically make him the next Nick Lidstrom. He has to show some tangible defensive ability before you commit 8 years to him.

 

Can somebody point me at a chart that shows he's a sound defensive player? All I can find is his plus minus, and these charts that says he has difficult matchups, which doesnt really tell me how good he is.

[Randall Flagg]

I love you too. Still think a 5yr deal is max he deserves.

 

Yeah it sucks he has difficult matchups on a ###### team, but that doesn't automatically make him the next Nick Lidstrom. He has to show some tangible defensive ability before you commit 8 years to him.

 

Can somebody point me at a chart that shows he's a sound defensive player? All I can find is his plus minus, and these charts that says he has difficult matchups, which doesnt really tell me how good he is.

All I have here are loads of anecdotes, do you want me to start listing them? 

 

I mean, I just don't get your choice of words. If he hasn't shown a shred of tangible defensive ability, why is he being ridden into the ground by his NHL and national team coach? Two totally different coaches doing the same thing. Surely they would be giving him Pysyk situations if he couldn't play tangible defense? 

Edited September 28, 2016 by Randall Flagg

[beerme1]

that doesn't automatically make him the next Nick Lidstrom.

 

 

You're right. He will be Lidstrom but tougher and nastier to paly against for at least the next eight years.

[LGR4GM]

Wooo, slow it down now. Lidstrom is probably one of the best, most reliable defenders of the past 20 years. He's the gold standard. I'm not sure there is a defender in the league right now who I'd put at his level. Several are close.

 

Ristolainen has a ways to go to be in the conversation with Nic Lidstrom

[pi2000]

All I have here are loads of anecdotes, do you want me to start listing them? 

 

I mean, I just don't get your choice of words. If he hasn't shown a shred of tangible defensive ability, why is he being ridden into the ground by his NHL and national team coach? Two totally different coaches doing the same thing. Surely they would be giving him Pysyk situations if he couldn't play tangible defense? 

 

They don't have any other options is why and he's in good physical shape so he can handle those types of minutes.    On contending team like LAK, ANA, CHI... even NSH, TBL, etc... Risto wouldn't be getting those minutes... he'd be a top 6 guy, which is fine for this stage of his development.    Can he get into the top 4 or top 2 on a legit contending team?   We'd like to think so, but he needs to get better in his own end... win more puck races, improve his transitions (backward to forward skating), etc..   He struggles mightly when he has to turn and skate with a guy who's coming at him with speed.    He doesn't have that quick burst, fluid hip movement to accelerate out the transition.   His change of direction is a bit sluggish.  I hope he can improve that part of his game, because if he can't, he'll continue to struggle defensively against quicker forwards.    

[Randall Flagg]

They don't have any other options is why and he's in good physical shape so he can handle those types of minutes.   1.) On contending team like LAK, ANA, CHI... even NSH, TBL, etc... Risto wouldn't be getting those minutes... he'd be a top 6 guy, which is fine for this stage of his development.    Can he get into the top 4 or top 2 on a legit contending team?   We'd like to think so, but he needs to get better in his own end...2.) win more puck races, improve his transitions (backward to forward skating), etc..   He struggles mightly when he has to turn and skate with a guy who's coming at him with speed.    He doesn't have that quick burst, fluid hip movement to accelerate out the transition.   His change of direction is a bit sluggish.  I hope he can improve that part of his game, because if he can't, he'll continue to struggle defensively against quicker forwards.    

Good points, some of which I don't necessarily disagree with in a vacuum, but I'll add/debate some things.

 

1.) I agree that on the Kings, Ducks, Hawks, and Preds, he goes to the second pair. He would be the second or third best defenseman on every single one of these teams (maybe 4th in Chicago, depending on your opinion of Hjalmarsson), though, and has 5+ years to develop to the level their top guys are at. Getting into the top four on some of these teams is downright easy. Would you prefer Alec Martinez/Brayden McNabb, Trevor Van Riemsdyk/Ville Pokka?, Ryan Ellis/Barret Jackman, Jason Garrison/Matt Carle, Kevin Bieksa/Montour getting Risto's minutes on this team? If not, then he slots above these guys, into the top four in those depth charts. 

 

2.) Like any hockey player in the world, especially at 21 years old, especially on defense, you are absolutely right. He's still fairly raw in the d-zone, prone to mistakes and misreads. With his speed, though, the plays where it was glaring (McDavid is probably the goal that sticks out in both of our minds here) happen to every defenseman in the league. Doughty and Suter were two notable players that got absolutely walked by McDavid on his way to goals. That stuff is going to happen to everyone, and while I agree Risto will keep improving and needs to to get to elite 1D status, the level at which you seem to think he needs to be at, at 21 years old, is not realistic for any defenseman in the world, IMO. Calling what he does now "poor defense" implies he needs to be damn near perfect already, because he has displayed countless amounts of heady, impressive breakups and reads, including the Crosby and Nyqvist examples I've cited, as well as plays on Parise and Gaudreau I remember him making in Minny and Calgary, shutting down the Kings players in LA on that road trip, bullying Lucic and Ovechkin, this stuff is decidedly outside of the norm for 21 year old defensemen learning the ropes in the NHL. This stuff is why everyone is so excited, it doesn't happen with kids Risto's age very often, because like we have mentioned, the guys winning Norris trophies now weren't even in the league at this point half of the time, much less making these plays with his minutes against the best in the world. 

 

I want and need to see continued improvement from Ristolainen just like you, but the difference between us is that I'm blown away and incredibly excited because of what he has shown so far and how much it varies from the traditional development of decent NHL defensemen. I think if you (general you) focus on other defensemen around the league, you realize that a lot of them look "really bad" a lot of the time, even the best (Shea Weber, game seven versus Sharks) because forwards are incredibly good at what they do, and skating forward is easier than skating backwards. 

 

Karlsson, Doughty, and Subban seem to be regulars atop the list of "giveaways" each season.

 

Ultimately, I think that today's elite defenseman is inherently polarizing. Very polarizing. This argument we have here takes place EVERYWHERE, about PK Subban, Drew Doughty, Erik Karlsson, Brent Burns, Duncan Keith. I believe it stems from the way we view the state of NHL forwards/the game in general, and expectation levels we have for our number one guys. 

 

Seriously, there were Montreal fans that were glad to see PK go because his giveaways and occasional ups were things they assume didn't happen with the other guys. But Weber is going to get torched by fast guys, and those fans are going to hate him too, when that's just how it is. 

[qwksndmonster]

Noice.

 

Just so everyone knows, Flagg stole that last post from my diary verbatim.

[shrader]

  

I think it has more to do with one particular blog contributor's ongoing hate-###### for Risto. Been gong on for awhile, it's bordering on weird.

 

Ristolainen probably stole his girlfriend via the internet.  That kind of thing happens to Lambert from time to time.