Trade ideas and speculation

[nfreeman]

FWIW, Puck Daddy's Ryan Lambert (whom I'm not a fan of) has a piece up about Trouba and possible defenseman who could be traded for him, and his most logical trade is:
 

 

1. Rasmus Ristolainen, Buffalo

 

Now this is intriguing!

 

Trouba is a lot better than Ristolainen. A lot better. Like, a lot lot lot better. But man people think Ristolainen is incredible. If Tim Murray could make this happen, that reputation as one of the very best GMs in the league would be cemented forever. He could trade Jack Eichel for Rickard Rakell and I would still be here saying, “Yeah but Ristolainen-for-Trouba” in his defense.

 

Ah but wait, Uncle Bob McKenzie says the Sabres wouldn’t part with Ristolainen. Never mind, I guess. No one’s trading for Trouba unless the Jets budge on their ask. Because this is all the defensemen who are even remotely comparable and there’s good reason for one or both sides to be totally disinterested in a one-for-one swap.

 

 

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/puck-lists-who-could-the-winnipeg-jets-land-for-jacob-trouba-155943688.html

[WildCard]

Yeah, see now we have a debate on our hands. The great Ristolainen debate. I'm excited

[TrueBlueGED]

FWIW, Puck Daddy's Ryan Lambert (whom I'm not a fan of) has a piece up about Trouba and possible defenseman who could be traded for him, and his most logical trade is:

 

 

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/puck-lists-who-could-the-winnipeg-jets-land-for-jacob-trouba-155943688.html

 

I don't understand how he considers this logical. I think the Jets and Sabres are pretty awful trade partners, seeing as the Jets problem is too many right shot Dmen pushing Trouba to the left side. Trading for Risto helps them...how?

[Huckleberry]

I don't understand how he considers this logical. I think the Jets and Sabres are pretty awful trade partners, seeing as the Jets problem is too many right shot Dmen pushing Trouba to the left side. Trading for Risto helps them...how?

 

Him saying trouba is a lot lot lot better than risto says enough for me.

[Randall Flagg]

Yeah, Trouba was kinda meh last season. Byfuglien/Enstrom are fun partners to have to hide behind, though.

[TrueBlueGED]

Chris Kuc ‏@ChrisKuc  42m42 minutes ago

Source: Artemi Panarin seeking six-year deal worth $6-plus million per with #Blackhawks:

 

Ian Fleming ‏@imfleming16  31m31 minutes ago

@imfleming16 Hawks currently have $58M committed to 11 players for 17-18. If Panarin gets $6M, 10 other roster spots would be on <$1M deals.

 

So, how much would you trade to Chicago for Panarin after this season when they can't afford him?

[WildCard]

Well they need cheap, which means picks and Zemgus, Foligno, and the likes

 

FWIW if we're talking must haves out of Winnipeg there's only 4 of them, and Trouba isn't on that list

Edited September 27, 2016 by WildCard

[Thorner]

FWIW, Puck Daddy's Ryan Lambert (whom I'm not a fan of) has a piece up about Trouba and possible defenseman who could be traded for him, and his most logical trade is:

 

 

 

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/puck-lists-who-could-the-winnipeg-jets-land-for-jacob-trouba-155943688.html

What a ridiculous quote from Lambert. How is that guy a paid writer. Not only is Trouba not a lot better than Ristolainen, Ristolainen had a BETTER season last year, at a younger age, and has higher potential. I even had a friend of mine text me yesterday, a huge Jets fan, that Trouba for Ristolainen would be a horrible trade for the Sabres.

 

Is the perception media-wide that Trouba is the better player?

[LGR4GM]

The perception is Buffalo sucks

[Thorner]

The perception is Buffalo sucks

Good point.

[qwksndmonster]

Trouba is not better than Risto. Not even close.

[Sabel79]

What a ridiculous quote from Lambert. How is that guy a paid writer. Not only is Trouba not a lot better than Ristolainen, Ristolainen had a BETTER season last year, at a younger age, and has higher potential. I even had a friend of mine text me yesterday, a huge Jets fan, that Trouba for Ristolainen would be a horrible trade for the Sabres.

Is the perception media-wide that Trouba is the better player?

  

The perception is Buffalo sucks

I think it has more to do with one particular blog contributor's ongoing hate- for Risto. Been gong on for awhile, it's bordering on weird.

[qwksndmonster]

 

I think it has more to do with one particular blog contributor's ongoing hate-###### for Risto. Been gong on for awhile, it's bordering on weird.

Is it GoDD?

[Sabel79]

Is it GoDD?

I don't think GoDD is/was Lambert, but it's a fun wacky conspiracy theory.

[pi2000]

Who's this Lambert guy?  Sounds like a certifiable genius.   

 

It's not like Risto was on the ice for 31 more goals against than Trouba was, who was also on a worse team with a worse team goal differential than Buffalo.... oh wait.   

Edited September 27, 2016 by pi2000

[WildCard]

Who's this Lambert guy? Sounds like a certifiable genius.

 

It's not like Risto was on the ice for 31 more goals against than Trouba was.... oh wait.

This guy...

[TrueBlueGED]

Who's this Lambert guy? Sounds like a certifiable genius.

 

It's not like Risto was on the ice for 31 more goals against than Trouba was, who was also on a worse team with a worse team goal differential than Buffalo.... oh wait.

Dominik Hasek was on the ice for more goals against than Andrei Trefilov. Guess you'd rather have Trefilov too.

[qwksndmonster]

Seriously. How can somebody ignore context, and then continue ignoring it after 8 different posters put the stats in context?

[pi2000]

http://public.tableau.com/shared/7MBY4GGBY?:display_count=yes

 

...check out those CF and possession numbers for Trouba... they're practically jumping out of the page at you.

Seriously. How can somebody ignore context, and then continue ignoring it after 8 different posters put the stats in context?

 

The only context is that Risto is not very good defensively yet.    There are plenty of young defensemen that have tough matchups night in and night out, and guess what, they're all not in the minus 20's or 30's.    

[nfreeman]

While I don't always agree with pi, I think (i) his avatar is so eye-bleeding that it naturally makes others here hostile to his takes and (ii) more to the immediate point, there is a bit too much jumping the gun here on the "Risto is great" conclusion. 

 

There are at least 40 defensemen in the NHL who are better than Risto is right now.  Will Risto get into the top 10 in the next few years?  I sure hope so, and he's got the tools.  But it's far from certain.

[TrueBlueGED]

While I don't always agree with pi, I think (i) his avatar is so eye-bleeding that it naturally makes others here hostile to his takes and (ii) more to the immediate point, there is a bit too much jumping the gun here on the "Risto is great" conclusion.

 

There are at least 40 defensemen in the NHL who are better than Risto is right now. Will Risto get into the top 10 in the next few years? I sure hope so, and he's got the tools. But it's far from certain.

There's an argument we overrate Risto, and an argument Trouba is better. Pi has not done a quality job articulating either of them.

[Randall Flagg]

There's an argument we overrate Risto, and an argument Trouba is better. Pi has not done a quality job articulating either of them.

There's no argument for Trouba over Ristolainen at this point in time. Any time before this past season, sure. Not now.

[Randall Flagg]

Hey guys, I saw a chart like this on HF and got the location, and then added players similar to Risto in terms of contract status and age. 

 

Seriously. How can somebody ignore context, and then continue ignoring it after 8 different posters put the stats in context?

Here's the context!!!!

First, without names, guess which bubble Ristolainen is:

Bubble's size is the ice time per game. Color indicates quality of teammates. y-axis is quality of opponent. Both are measured as relative corsi. x-axis is offensive zone start percentage. 

 

I know qwk and True know which bubble Ristolainen is.

http://public.tableau.com/shared/7MBY4GGBY?:display_count=yes

 

...check out those CF and possession numbers for Trouba... they're practically jumping out of the page at you.

 

The only context is that Risto is not very good defensively yet.    There are plenty of young defensemen that have tough matchups night in and night out, and guess what, they're all not in the minus 20's or 30's.    

The chart I just posted shows that you are wrong about those young defensemen's matchups relative to Ristolainen. And shows that Trouba gets lots of help. Seriously, Dustin Byfuglien versus Josh Gorges. 

[Eleven]

My fancystat game is not good enough to play along, but I have been enjoying the discussion, and I am forward to seeing the guesses, the answer, and what the hell that chart means.

[Randall Flagg]

My fancystat game is not good enough to play along, but I have been enjoying the discussion, and I am forward to seeing the guesses, the answer, and what the hell that chart means.

What's important to know about this chart is that it doesn't tell you a thing about how the players perform. Every measure just tells you what kind of situations they get deployed in. The higher a bubble is, the tougher the players' deployments are in terms of who they're against. The guys at the top get the Crosby line, or the O'Reilly line, the guys at the bottom get the Cullen line, or the Cal O'Reilly line. 

 

The guys on the left start in the defensive zone more often, the guys on the right start in the offensive zone more often. The guys with bigger circles play more. The guys with blue circles have better teammates on the ice with them, the guys with red circles have worse players on their own team playing with them. 

This stuff needs to be taken into account when you look at trashy stats like +/-, because it shows why you can't use that stat to measure how well a player is playing.