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Trade ideas and speculation

Hoss

By Hoss
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Eleven Hall of Famer

Eleven

Posted
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Tim Graham's piece on analytics in football contained passing reference to two apparent truths in NFL analytics: Don't trade up in the draft, and don't skew heavily on the running game. (Both of which are tenets that the Bills have flouted.)

 

What about in the NHL? Should GM TM not trade up?

 

Seems to me that it's a different analysis.

 

That chart reflecting NHL playing minutes and draft position on an x,y axis comes to mind.

 

I do not think there is any reason to trade up unless some GM makes the Sabres a ridiculously stupid offer.

WildCard Hall of Famer

WildCard

Posted
Posted (edited)

Tim Graham's piece on analytics in football contained passing reference to two apparent truths in NFL analytics: Don't trade up in the draft, and don't skew heavily on the running game. (Both of which are tenets that the Bills have flouted.)

 

What about in the NHL? Should GM TM not trade up?

 

Seems to me that it's a different analysis.

 

That chart reflecting NHL playing minutes and draft position on an x,y axis comes to mind.

Generally I believe in trading up in the NHL draft, but not with our 1st pick this year. We should be using all of those 3rds and our 2nd to hop back into the first or early 2nd. Edited by WildCard
TrueBlueGED Hall of Famer

TrueBlueGED

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You're not going to get E.Karlsson stats out of that guy but you will get a young, elite skater with speed and hockey IQ. Upgrade on Gorges in my opinion but still very young, I think he'll turn 23 by next year. I hate to give up on Z after one down year but that's a fair hockey trade in my opinion if the Wild add a little to the pie. You have Pysyk and Brodin on the 3rd pair, Bogosian and an improving McCabe on the 2nd pairing and that's 5/6ths of a very young and good D again in my opinion.

Speaking of McCabe, everything I've read about him at the IIHF tournament has been very positive.

The reason I've soured on acquiring Brodin is I'm increasingly of the mind we're only reasonably going to add one top-4 Dman, and Brodin simply doesn't bring the skill set we need. We are desperate for someone back there who can flip the ice, and that's not Brodin.

How many of you will be pissed when we trade up for Chychrun?

*raises hand*

 

I may have a meltdown.

beerme1 Second Liner

beerme1

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I don't even know why we're trading up to begin with.

 

 

Agreed, But if GMTM feels that he has to do it to get his guy I'm alright with it.

TrueBlueGED Hall of Famer

TrueBlueGED

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I don't even know why we're trading up to begin with.

Yea, I'm really not a fan of doing so this year. I like a host of players, some of whom are guaranteed to be there at 8.

Tim Graham's piece on analytics in football contained passing reference to two apparent truths in NFL analytics: Don't trade up in the draft, and don't skew heavily on the running game. (Both of which are tenets that the Bills have flouted.)

 

What about in the NHL? Should GM TM not trade up?

 

Seems to me that it's a different analysis.

 

That chart reflecting NHL playing minutes and draft position on an x,y axis comes to mind.

NHL and NFL drafts are totally different beasts. In the NFL you've got a much flatter distribution of talent (outside of QB, anyway), whereas the NHL is extremely top-heavy. The roster is also half the size, so having more picks isn't necessarily more useful.

 

That said, I'm still not a fan of trading up here unless it gets us into the top-3.

WildCard Hall of Famer

WildCard

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Agreed, But if GMTM feels that he has to do it to get his guy I'm alright with it.

To be honest, we really can't judge Murray on drafting yet. This draft is pivotal for how we judge him; rescinding what I posted earlier about this draft not being important

 

Yea, I'm really not a fan of doing so this year. I like a host of players, some of whom are guaranteed to be there at 8.

Plus, it kills my dreams of Keller.

beerme1 Second Liner

beerme1

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To be honest, we really can't judge Murray on drafting yet. This draft is pivotal for how we judge him; rescinding what I posted earlier about this draft not being important

 

Plus, it kills my dreams of Keller.

 

 

Agree and as much as I love GMTM he cant whiff on this. I have a tremendous amount of faith in him though but know that he is liable to say it and do something wild.

WildCard Hall of Famer

WildCard

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Pretty sure you can only bury $950k of a contract in the AHL.

Sounds like they're stuck with him then

 

Ohhhhh ! I was so hyped for the trade deadline this year, and it turned out to be such a bust. I think we're in for one hell of a draft week though. 

Dang. He makes reference in that transcript to just about every team in the league except the Sabres.

Nobody expects the Murray inquisition 

Thorner Hall of Famer

Thorner

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How many of you will be pissed when we trade up for Chychrun?

 

 

My guess is that if Murray trades up its for a forward.

 

Generally I believe in trading up in the NHL draft, but not with our 1st pick this year. We should be using all of those 3rds and our 2nd to hop back into the first or early 2nd.

But as evidenced by the Larkin situation, trading "back into" a round is often very hard, and more of a pipe dream.

 

I'm a fan of trading up substantially in this draft, because I think Tkachuk is a great prospect. If Murray trades to say, 6, I'm ok with that too, because hit means we know Murray is getting the D he values highest, and I trust his judgement (I think he would take a D at 6).

 

On Chychrun: he has been ranked anywhere from 4th to out of the top 10. It's safe to say there are lots that see him as a future top 2/4 Dman, with high potential. Lots also that see his ceiling as much lower. I can't pretend to know on which side of that I fall, except to say I like him as a prospect. The important thing, to me, is that I trust Murray's judgement when evaluating young talent. If he picks Chychrun, I'll happily take his word for it, given the position he's in, over those who aren't fans of Chychrun's game.

 

Same goes for Juolevi, Sergachev, or Keller. Or whoever we pick, to be honest, barring some unforeseen incredibly off the board pick. I'll be very happy with a trade up, if it happens, as I can't see Murray giving what I would consider "too much" to do so.

Drunkard First Liner

Drunkard

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I will be pissed if we trade away Reinhart, even for a good player like Taylor Hall. Partially because we tanked to get him and partially because I believe I'm still suffering from the PTSD of being so devoid of centers that multiple years of tanking were necessary in the first place. Right now we are set with centers but if we traded Reinhart we'd only be one Eichel or O'Reilly injury away from having to put somebody like Larsson or Girgensons at center in the top 6. I have no interest in that. Having Reinhart at wing and as a potential top 6 center in case of injury is not something we should be looking to part with in order to get a slightly more productive winger that can't switch to center if needed. F that noise.

Eleven Hall of Famer

Eleven

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I will be pissed if we trade away Reinhart, even for a good player like Taylor Hall. Partially because we tanked to get him and partially because I believe I'm still suffering from the PTSD of being so devoid of centers that multiple years of tanking were necessary in the first place. Right now we are set with centers but if we traded Reinhart we'd only be one Eichel or O'Reilly injury away from having to put somebody like Larsson or Girgensons at center in the top 6. I have no interest in that. Having Reinhart at wing and as a potential top 6 center in case of injury is not something we should be looking to part with in order to get a slightly more productive winger that can't switch to center if needed. F that noise.

 

Much agreed.  Reinhart is on my no-trade list.

Thorner Hall of Famer

Thorner

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I will be pissed if we trade away Reinhart, even for a good player like Taylor Hall. Partially because we tanked to get him and partially because I believe I'm still suffering from the PTSD of being so devoid of centers that multiple years of tanking were necessary in the first place. Right now we are set with centers but if we traded Reinhart we'd only be one Eichel or O'Reilly injury away from having to put somebody like Larsson or Girgensons at center in the top 6. I have no interest in that. Having Reinhart at wing and as a potential top 6 center in case of injury is not something we should be looking to part with in order to get a slightly more productive winger that can't switch to center if needed. F that noise.

Same.

pi2000 First Liner

pi2000

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Much agreed.  Reinhart is on my no-trade list.

 

What about Risto?  Murray didn't draft him, he's still unsigned (although it's early).     I like Risto, but think he's too slow for what Murray is looking for on the back-end.  

Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

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  • Author
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If we trade Risto it better be for PK Subban, Erik Karlsson, Drew Doughty, Roman Josi, Brent Burns or maybe two other defenseman in the league. None of these are options.

TrueBlueGED Hall of Famer

TrueBlueGED

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Dang. He makes reference in that transcript to just about every team in the league except the Sabres.

Eh, we're not looking to make a seismic shift anyway. We have our core we're looking for supporting pieces.

thewookie1 First Liner

thewookie1

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What about Risto?  Murray didn't draft him, he's still unsigned (although it's early).     I like Risto, but think he's too slow for what Murray is looking for on the back-end.  

 

He's safe too, he earned Murray's respect by having the balls to go to his office and call him out for the tanking at 19/20.

 

 

Risto is not too slow...... he isn't Karlsson but he also isn't Cody Franson which you seem to see him as. He's akin to Hedman or Shea Weber and seeing as GMTM loved Bogosian, I think Risto would fall into a similar category in athleticism.   

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