2015 NHL Free Agency

[Hoss]

We're a little over a month away from this year's free agency which starts at noon eastern time on July 1st.

 

Free agent list (per Sportrac):

(Bolded means connection to Bylsma, Italics means connection to Murray. Connection time in parentheses at end of first line)

 

 

Mike Green, RHD, Washington Capitals (UFA) 29

2015 cap hit: $6.083M Stats: 10-35-45 in 72 games +15

 

Martin St. Louis, RW, New York Rangers (UFA) 39

2015 cap hit: $5.625M Stats: 23-31-52 in 74 games +12

 

Paul Martin, LHD, Pittsburgh Penguins (UFA) 34 (10-14 coach)

2015 cap hit: $5.0M Stats: 3-17-20 in 74 games +17

 

Lubomir Visnovsky, LHD, New York Islanders (UFA) 38

 

2015 cap hit: $4.75M Stats: 5-15-20 in 53 games +8

 

Mike Fisher, C, Nashville Predators (UFA) 34 (07-11 AGM)

2015 cap hit: $4.2M Stats: 19-20-39 in 59 games +4

 

Daniel Briere, RW, Colorado Avalanche (UFA) 37

2015 cap hit: $4.0M Stats: 8-4-12 in 57 games -7

 

Christian Ehrhoff, LHD, Pittsburgh Penguins (UFA) 32 (2014 GM)

2015 cap hit: $4.0M Stats: 3-11-14 in 49 games +8

 

Antti Niemi, G, San Jose Sharks (UFA) 31

2015 cap hit: $3.8M Stats: .914 SV%, 5 shutouts in 31 wins

 

Sergei Gonchar, LHD, Montreal Canadiens (UFA) 41 (08-10 coach; 10-13 AGM)

2015 cap hit: $3.759M Stats: 1-13-14 in 48 games +6

 

Justin Williams, RW, Los Angeles Kings (UFA)

2015 cap hit: $3.65M Stats: 18-23-41 in 81 games +8

 

Francois Beauchemin, LHD, Anaheim Ducks (UFA) 34

2015 cap hit: $3.5M Stats: 11-12-23 in 64 games +17

 

Matt Cullen, C, Nashville Predators (UFA) 38 (00-03 teammate; 06-07 scout, 09-10 AGM)

2015 cap hit: $3.5M Stats: 7-18-25 in 62 games +8

 

Johnny Oduya, LHD, Chicago Blackhawks (UFA) 33

2015 cap hit: $3.375M Stats: 2-8-10 in 76 games +5

 

Michael Frolik, RW, Winnipeg Jets (UFA) 27

2015 cap hit: $3.3M Stats: 19-23-42 in 82 games +4

 

Jarret Stoll, C, Los Angeles Kings (UFA) 32

2015 cap hit: $3.25M Stats: 6-11-17 in 73 games +3

 

Joel Ward, RW, Washington Capitals (UFA) 34

2015 cap hit: $3.0M Stats: 19-15-34 in 82 games -4

 

Kyle Brodziak, RW, Minnesota Wild (UFA) 31

 

2015 cap hit: $2.833M Stats: 9-11-20 in 73 games -6

 

Karri Ramo, G, Calgary Flames (UFA) 28

2015 cap hit: $2.75M Stats: .912 SV%, 2 shutouts in 34 starts

 

Michal Rozsival, RHD, Chicago Blackhawks (UFA) 36 (05-06 scout)

2015 cap hit: $2.2M Stats: 1-12-13 in 65 games +0

 

Brenden Morrow, LW, Tampa Bay Lightning (UFA) 36 (13 coach)

2015 cap hit: $1.55M Stats: 3-5-8 in 70 games -1

 

Matt Carkner, RHD, New York Islanders (UFA) 34 (06-07 AHL assistant; 07-12 AGM)

2015 cap hit: $1.5M Stats: 2-1-3 in 19 AHL games +2

 

Eric Fehr, RW, Washington Capitals (UFA) 29

2015 cap hit: $1.5M Stats: 19-14-33 in 75 games +8

 

Matt Beleskey, LW, Anaheim Ducks (UFA) 26

2015 cap hit: $1.35M Stats: 22-10-32 in 65 games +13

 

Mark Letestu, C, Columbus Blue Jackets (UFA) 30 (06-12 coach)

2015 cap hit: $1.25M Stats: 7-6-13 in 54 games -9

 

Erik Condra, RW, Ottawa Senators (UFA) 28 (9-13 AGM)

2015 cap hit: $1.25M Stats: 9-14-23 in 68 games +13

 

Ilya Bryzgalov, G, Anaheim Ducks (UFA) 34 (01 and 03-04 teammates, 04-05 coach)

2015 cap hit: $1.176M Stats: .847 SV% in 8 games

 

Carl Soderberg, C, Boston Bruins (UFA) 29

2015 cap hit: $1.0M Stats: 13-31-44 in 82 games +10

 

Anton Volchenkov, D, Nashville Predators (UFA) 33 (07-10 AGM)

2015 cap hit: $1.0M Stats: 0-7-7 in 46 games +4

 

Ray Emery, G, Philadelphia Flyers (UFA) 32 (07-08 AGM)

2015 cap hit: $1.0M Stats: .894 SV% in 31 games

 

Antoine Vermette, RW/C, Chicago Blackhawks (UFA) 32 (07-09 AGM)

2015 cap hit: $0.866M Stats: 13-25-38 in 82 games -25

 

Andrej Sekera, D, Los Angeles Kings (UFA) 28

2015 cap hit: $0.68M Stats: 3-20-23 in 73 games -3

 

Notable RFAs:

Derek Stepan (C - NYR), Tyler Toffoli (RW - LAK), Martin Jones (G - LA), Jakob Silfverberg (RW - ANA), Brandon Saad (RW - CHI), Dougie Hamilton (D - BOS), Jonathan Huberdeau (C - FLA), Mike Hoffman (LW - OTT), Gustav Nyquist (C - DET), Nazem Kadri (C - TOR), Vlad Tarasenko (RW - STL), Beau Bennett (RW - PIT), Evgeny Kuznetzov (C - WSH), Jonathan Bernier (G - TOR), Mikkel Boedker (RW - ARZ), Carl Hagelin (LW - NYR), Craig Smith (RW - NSH), Colin Wilson (LW - NSH), Braden Holtby (G - WSH), Nathan Beaulieu (D - MTL), Alex Galchenyuk (C - MTL), Brock Nelson (C - NYI), Mikael Granlund (C - MIN), Erik Haula (C - MIN), Mika Zibanejad (C - OTT), Shane Prince (LW - OTT), Jayson Megna (RW - PIT)

 

 

Offer sheet compensation:

 

$1,205,377 and below - No compensation

$1,205,377 to $1,826,328 - Third-round pick

$1,826,328 to $3,652,659 - Second-round pick

$3,652,659 to $5,478,986 - First and third

$5,478,986 to $7,305,316 - First, second and third

$7,305,316 to $9,131,645 - Two firsts, second and third

$9,131,645 and up - Four firsts

 

The numbers are the AAV or the total divided by five (whichever is higher)

 

 

There's a couple other bad players that have connections to GMTM and Disco Dan, but I got tired.

Edited June 1, 2015 by Hoss

[Brawndo]

Excellent work Hoss!! Of course the RFAs look much appealing, but are also much more expensive in terms of acquiring.

[Hoss]

Excellent work Hoss!! Of course the RFAs look much appealing, but are also much more expensive in terms of acquiring.

Thanks! And definitely.

 

I added the RFA compensation list, but they are pure estimations on my part by slightly raising the 2012 numbers.

[WildCard]

Thanks for the RFA compensation breakdown Hoss, I never got how that worke and there are some prominen RFA's I would like for us to take a swing at

[Hoss]

RFAs I would be interested in and what I would offer:

Offer together:
Tyler Toffoli (RW - LAK) - 5 years, $23M (first and third)
Martin Jones (G - LA) - 3 years, $2M (second)
This likely forces LA to choose one or the other. They probably choose Toffoli.

Jakob Silfverberg (RW - ANA) - 4 years, $14M (second)
Brandon Saad (RW - CHI) - 5 years, $25M (first and third)
Dougie Hamilton (D - BOS) - 6 years, $36M (two firsts, second and third)
Gustav Nyquist (RW - DET) - 4 years, $20M (first and third)
Vlad Tarasenko (RW - STL) - 2 years, $20M (four first) - I don't know why but go crazy. Don't think I would actually do this, but it might take something like this.
Mikkel Boedker (RW - ARZ) - 3 years, $9.5M (second)
Craig Smith (RW - NSH) - 3 years, $9.5M (second)
Alex Galchenyuk (C - MTL) - 3 years, $11M (second) make them prove they do value him in some way
Shane Prince (LW - OTT) - 2 years, $2.2M (no compensation)

 

Those including first-round compensation I would likely only do if Murray makes other big moves in free agency/trades before the RFA action picks up.

Edited May 31, 2015 by Hoss

[deluca67]

RFAs I would be interested in and what I would offer:

 

Offer together:

Tyler Toffoli (RW - LAK) - 5 years, $23M (first and third)

Martin Jones (G - LA) - 3 years, $2M (second)

This likely forces LA to choose one or the other. They probably choose Toffoli.

 

Jakob Silfverberg (RW - ANA) - 4 years, $14M (second)

Brandon Saad (RW - CHI) - 5 years, $25M (first and third)

Dougie Hamilton (D - BOS) - 6 years, $36M (first, second and third)

Gustav Nyquist (RW - DET) - 4 years, $20M (first and third)

Vlad Tarasenko (RW - STL) - 2 years, $20M (four first) - I don't know why but go crazy. Don't think I would actually do this, but it might take something like this.

Mikkel Boedker (RW - ARZ) - 3 years, $9.5M (second)

Craig Smith (RW - NSH) - 3 years, $9.5M (second)

Alex Galchenyuk (C - MTL) - 3 years, $11M (second) make them prove they do value him in some way

Shane Prince (LW - OTT) - 2 years, $2.2M (no compensation)

I would love if the Sabres took a run at Dougie Hamilton. I think the 6 x $6 mil is the contract he will likely end up signing with the Bruins. The kid is a player and I wouldn't mind over-payng to see this kid in the blue & gold. 

[Hoss]

I would love if the Sabres took a run at Dougie Hamilton. I think the 6 x $6 mil is the contract he will likely end up signing with the Bruins. The kid is a player and I wouldn't mind over-payng to see this kid in the blue & gold. 

I actually made an error in calculation there. 6 x $6M would be two firsts, a second and a third. Since it's either the AAV or total divided by five (whichever is higher) it goes up a notch. For them to let him go to a rival I think they would need us to get stupid and go like $8M, though. The more I think about it the more I wouldn't make the 6 x $6M offer. I think that helps the Bruins, because in 2-3 years he's going to be worth $8M if he continues to improve. We would be giving them a bargain while risking picks.

 

I would be willing to give the seconds/thirds it would take to land Silfverberg, Boedker, Smith or Galchenyuk. I think Silfverberg is the only of those that might be in any risk of not getting matched, though. I'm not giving a first for any of those guys unless we somehow land a big fish before.

Edited May 31, 2015 by Hoss

[nfreeman]

Nice work Hoss. One quibble: why start with the 2012 RFA #s? Weren't the 2014 #s published?

 

In any case, I've been wondering whether TM would be inclined to pursue RFAs. On the one hand, he strikes me as somewhat old-school, so maybe not, but OTOH, he's aggressive and has discussed some innovative GM moves in the past (e.g. trading already-drafted players on draft day).

 

As for hypothetical RFA signings, I'd gladly go to $8.7MM x 5 years for Tarasenko. STL probably matches, but they're a budget team, so maybe not.

[French Collection]

Chicago may have trouble signing Saad. Either trade for him beforehand and match offers or make him an offer Hawks can't match. He's yet to hit his prime and is a force in the playoffs.

[WildCard]

As much as I hate to admit it, the Toffoli and Saad signings are pipe dreams. The best we can do is offer and make them suffer by matching and having a huge cap-hit

[Hoss]

As much as I hate to admit it, the Toffoli and Saad signings are pipe dreams. The best we can do is offer and make them suffer by matching and having a huge cap-hit

You could put them in a similar situation to what San Jose did to Chicago. They have no big free agents, but maybe you call up Chicago and say you've got a big offer sheet in hand for Saad that you won't offer if you can work out a deal for Hjalmarsson or Seabrook or somebody of that level.

Nice work Hoss. One quibble: why start with the 2012 RFA #s? Weren't the 2014 #s published?

They were actually. I was kind of tired of collecting data so I just went with the first link I found.

 

And, strangely... They were the exact same numbers in 2014 that they were in 2012. So I don't really know if we should expect an increase on that front or not.

[WildCard]

You could put them in a similar situation to what San Jose did to Chicago. They have no big free agents, but maybe you call up Chicago and say you've got a big offer sheet in hand for Saad that you won't offer if you can work out a deal for Hjalmarsson or Seabrook or somebody of that level.

I like this idea, I had no idea SJ did this; for whom did they do it for?

 

They can't afford Hossa, Sharp, and paying Saad. Someone will be dumped, and it will likely be Sharp/Hossa

[Hoss]

I like this idea, I had no idea SJ did this; for whom did they do it for?

 

They can't afford Hossa, Sharp, and paying Saad. Someone will be dumped, and it will likely be Sharp/Hossa

San Jose did it for Niemi and Hjalmarsson. They gave Hjalmarsson the big offer sheet and Niemi a big UFA contract offer. Chicago chose right.

[Sam]

Hope we pursue Ramo from Calgary - guy's a better keeper than Hiller but for some reason they're letting him walk

 

Also Frolik, but I think he'll be a hot topic around the league. 

 

Many RFA's I'd go after (Zibanejad, Silfverberg, Huberdeau etc) but they're all pipedreams

[Rasmus_]

The guys that I've had interest in: Neuvirth, Ramo, Frolik, Soderberg, Belesky.  I'm going to stay away from the RFA' offer sheeting because that's as accurate as trade proposals.  :D

[thewookie1]

My UFA Targets in Order of desirability. Obviously we wouldn't sign them all since some of them overlap in purpose.

 

1. Antti Niemi (Starting goalie 1 Ring)

2. Justin Williams (RW with a ton of experience and clutch. 3 Rings!)

3. Johnny Oduya (Experienced D-man with a ring, maybe rings if they win this year. 1/2 Rings)

4. Michael Frolik (Younger with 1 Ring)

5. Francois Beauchemin (Backup choice to Oduya 1 Ring)

[dudacek]

I don't see a perfect fit for us out there and I expect Tim's biggest acquisitions will be made by trade.

We will be active, but our targets will shift depending on what happens on the trade front, where he will try to take advantage of our ability to take on salary.

 

Of the players listed, Ehrhoff fills a need better than anybody, but I would be shocked if he comes back.

Williams would help most up front, but I just can't see him being interested unless we were cash-foolish with him.

Neuvirth is my favourite of the UFA goalies. I could see him being re-signed.

[Drunkard]

I like this idea, I had no idea SJ did this; for whom did they do it for?

 

They can't afford Hossa, Sharp, and paying Saad. Someone will be dumped, and it will likely be Sharp/Hossa

Chicago can't risk getting rid of Hossa for the same reason we couldn't trade away Ehrhoff. If he retires after getting traded his cap hit would be way worse than if he retired as a member of the Blackhawks. Chicago has too many good players they have to pay to be able to waste cap space like that so I don't think there's any chance they risk something like that.

[tom webster]

I would love if the Sabres took a run at Dougie Hamilton. I think the 6 x $6 mil is the contract he will likely end up signing with the Bruins. The kid is a player and I wouldn't mind over-payng to see this kid in the blue & gold.

While I

Like Hamilton, I don't see the Sabres investing assets in a right handed shooting defenseman in the same way I don't see them investing in a left winger. With Risto, Bogo and Pysyk, they would seem to be set for awhile.

[Hoss]

I think chances are the Hawks find a partner for Bickell and/or Sharp which would pretty much get them in the clear on any cap issues.

They'll be the most interesting to watch and see how they manage.

[tom webster]

Mirtle reporting that NHL escalator will be less then 5% which could drop cap below $70 million.

The volatility of the situation is why it is way to early to predict what Murray will do. One thing I think I can guarantee though is that there will be no offer sheet risking a number one pick unless he is certain he can be a playoff team. Can you imagine the uproar if they miss the playoffs and won the lottery but don't have their pick?

[Hoss]

Mirtle reporting that NHL escalator will be less then 5% which could drop cap below $70 million.

The volatility of the situation is why it is way to early to predict what Murray will do. One thing I think I can guarantee though is that there will be no offer sheet risking a number one pick unless he is certain he can be a playoff team. Can you imagine the uproar if they miss the playoffs and won the lottery but don't have their pick?

Agreed. That's why I pointed out that I'm only making 1st-round offer sheets if they've done a ton of work beforehand. With Bylsma's comments in today's 30 thoughts I don't think that will be the case.

[rakish]

Ok Hoss, I'm not understanding.  What keeps the Sabres from offering Nyqvist or Toffoli 8m for one year? Tarasenko 10m for one year?  Minimum length of an offer sheet? Good sportsmanship?

[deluca67]

Ok Hoss, I'm not understanding.  What keeps the Sabres from offering Nyqvist or Toffoli 8m for one year? Tarasenko 10m for one year?  Minimum length of an offer sheet? Good sportsmanship?

The Sabres can offer, I highly doubt the players would sign the offer making the offers pointless and making the Sabres look bad.    

[Hoss]

Ok Hoss, I'm not understanding.  What keeps the Sabres from offering Nyqvist or Toffoli 8m for one year? Tarasenko 10m for one year?  Minimum length of an offer sheet? Good sportsmanship?

Nothing prevents them from doing that aside from common sense. Offering $8M plus offer sheets would cost four firsts... Not worth it.