2015-2016 Expectations

[...]

With all due respect to the OP, the concept behind this thread is exceedingly premature, IMHO.

 

We're going to have three top six, or arguably top three, offensive players (throwing out Reinhart's preview at the beginning of last season) on the roster.  Girgensons, who was out going down stretch, will be back.  These factors, alone, are going affect the look of the Sabre's offensive capabilities - skill, chemistry, speed, smarts.

 

Who knows right now what the D is going to look like in October.

 

There is no goalie.  None.  Kaput. 

 

I don't believe anyone can state their expectations right now with any degree of seriousness.

 

The only prediction that has made sense thus far in this thread has been DeLuca's.  The roster rebuild won't be complete until the end of summer 2016. 

 

As for 2015-2016, we simply should wait until the pre-season before establishing what our expectations are.  Again, IMHO. 

[PromoTheRobot]

With all due respect to the OP, the concept behind this thread is exceedingly premature, IMHO.

 

We're going to have three top six, or arguably top three, offensive players (throwing out Reinhart's preview at the beginning of last season) on the roster. Girgensons, who was out going down stretch, will be back. These factors, alone, are going affect the look of the Sabre's offensive capabilities - skill, chemistry, speed, smarts.

 

Who knows right now what the D is going to look like in October.

 

There is no goalie. None. Kaput.

 

I don't believe anyone can state their expectations right now with any degree of seriousness.

 

The only prediction that has made sense thus far in this thread has been DeLuca's. The roster rebuild won't be complete until the end of summer 2016.

 

As for 2015-2016, we simply should wait until the pre-season before establishing what our expectations are. Again, IMHO.

To the goalie question, we nearly blew the tank because anyone we threw in was suddenly playing with +.900 save%. So I'm not that worried about it.

 

I also think that even an incomplete roster can challenge for a wild card slot.

[pi2000]

They're still a bottom 5 team. The good news is that the teardown is over. It's all about improvement now.

 

Young, new coach, no goaltending.

[smj]

I am very interested in the talks with Irbe and hope he stays.  I'll feel a lot better about our future if we sign him for a few years.  It's like when a baseball pitching staff suddenly plays great and you realize they got a new pitching coach.  The goalie might be the second most important coach on the team because it is such a different position. 

 

Like Leo Mazzone who was the pitching coach for the Atlanta Braves all those years.  He routinely took pitchers and made them much better - and when they left they regressed again.  I think Irbe may be that type of coach but it is very early in his career to know for sure.  He certainly did wonders with many different guys last year.

[Taro T]

To the goalie question, we nearly blew the tank because anyone we threw in was suddenly playing with +.900 save%. So I'm not that worried about it.

I also think that even an incomplete roster can challenge for a wild card slot.

They likely won't be playing w/ 5 skaters below the dots this season, so even if Irbe is a genius and comes back; putting a sieve between the pipes likely won't result in the same sort of save %ages as we saw this past season.

 

This team will be learning a new system, will most likely be extremely young up the middle, and will most likely be looking to counter attack quickly. Between growing pains and oopsies, they are going to want an upgrade over Lindback; unless they want a strong shot at Matthews. ;)

[LastPommerFan]

They're still a bottom 5 team. The good news is that the teardown is over. It's all about improvement now.

 

Young, new coach, no goaltending.

The teardown was over last summer. The team got better this year, believe it or not. Barring some injuries at the end, we could have easily blown the tank.

[LGR4GM]

The teardown was over last summer. The team got better this year, believe it or not. Barring some injuries at the end, we could have easily blown the tank.

The teardown might have been over but Murray did not start to build this past season in any real sense. He waited patiently and made moves for the future.  I don't think we could have easily blown the tank.  I think we need to recognize that Phoenix was trying probably harder than Buffalo to achieve the tank.  In the end Artus Irbe and his GT magic was thwarted by Tim Murray and his cold calculating trades.  Imagine what it must have been like to be a Phoenix fan (they have some right?) watching EDM get yet another first overall pick. 

[Doohicksie]

I don't think we could have easily blown the tank.

 

Sure we could have.  Look at what happened late - we almost blew it when injuries made room for the younger guys, and the Sabres started winning games.  Had Larsson, Grigo, Pysyk, etc., played with the Sabres all season long I think  Eichel would be going elsewhere.

 

Here's an interesting thought experiment:  Look at the changes from last season to the upcoming season, and attach points to them.  I think if things play out favorably the Sabres really could be fighting for a playoff spot in the spring.

 

Full year with the young core playing  +5 points

CoHo has a good rebound year and produces as part of the Top 6  + 3 points

Eichel  +5 points

Bylsma bounce (the team plays a functional system and coach & GM acting together) + 15 points

Reinhart  + 3 points

Kane + 3 points

Messy Balls replaced by competent D-men  +5 points

Stable goaltending under the Goalie Whisperer  +3 points

Pick up a Top 6 RW  +3 points

 

All of a sudden they are in the 90 point range.  Realistically I think last year's team was capable of earning 70-75 points, but the lack of a coherent system beyond "compete harder" and "collapse in the D-zone"  artificially depressed their point total.  Even with exactly the same personnel but with better coaching, they could have earned 70+ points.  Add in the most recent changes and they will be a far, far better team.  The only question in my mind is how long will it take for Bylsma to evaluate what he's got, put the pieces together the most effective way, and get them to gel?  This is where his year off from coaching I think will pay off; he's had a chance to evaluate analytical data to see what works and what doesn't, and to also consider tweaks to his own coaching tendencies to make him a better coach.

 

The change make take longer than I hope it will, and then you can subtract 10 or 15 points for "but not yet" and they are just kind of a middling lottery team.  But don't be if they are 90+ points this season.

Imagine what it must have been like to be a Phoenix fan (they have some right?) watching EDM get yet another first overall pick. 

 

No need to imagine; just peruse their forum over the HFBoards.  They were tearing their hair out at the end of the season.

Edited June 1, 2015 by Neuvirths Glove

[shrader]

No need to imagine; just peruse their forum over the HFBoards.  They were tearing their hair out at the end of the season.

 

Which is kind of crazy when you think about it.  In Carrion league standards, that team made one hell of a heroic charge in the second half last year.  They just dug too much of a hole early in the year and had such a little chance at catching up.

[Taro T]

Last year, they went

 

Oct 2-9-1

Nov 6-7-0

Dec 6-7-2

Jan 0-12-0

Feb 5-6-2

Mar 2-8-3

Apr 2-4-0

 

If they pick up 2 more wins each month, except Jan where they get 5 more and Apr w/ 1 more, they'd be:

 

Oct 4-7-1

Nov 8-5-0

Dec 8-5-2

Jan 5-7-0

Feb 7-4-2

Mar 4-6-3

Apr 3-3-0

 

Which would give them 39-35-8 --> 86. Make it 3 more wins, rather than 2, in only 4 more months and they're at 94. Unless they make virtually no more moves, low 90's isn't unthinkable; though high 80's are more realistic. (I'm still sticking w/ low 90's.)

[Doohicksie]

Which is kind of crazy when you think about it.  In Carrion league standards, that team made one hell of a heroic charge in the second half last year.  They just dug too much of a hole early in the year and had such a little chance at catching up.

 

Oh, I don't think they were thinking Tank all season.  It was only at the very end when they got close that they even paid attention to it.  Then they were so close that it was maddening.

Last year, they went

 

Oct 2-9-1

Nov 6-7-0

Dec 6-7-2

Jan 0-12-0

Feb 5-6-2

Mar 2-8-3

Apr 2-4-0

 

If they pick up 2 more wins each month, except Jan where they get 5 more and Apr w/ 1 more, they'd be:

 

Oct 4-7-1

Nov 8-5-0

Dec 8-5-2

Jan 5-7-0

Feb 7-4-2

Mar 4-6-3

Apr 3-3-0

 

Which would give them 39-35-8 --> 86. Make it 3 more wins, rather than 2, in only 4 more months and they're at 94. Unless they make virtually no more moves, low 90's isn't unthinkable; though high 80's are more realistic. (I'm still sticking w/ low 90's.)

 

Make January a better month that .500 and give them a strong finish in March and April.... yeah, it's possible.

 

I see them digging a bit of a hole for themselves early in the year because of the new system and so many new faces.  If they can turn that around quickly, and maybe be a "buyer" at the trade deadline, they may be able to make a push for a playoff spot.

 

And I don't really see that as a 40+ point improvement int he standings because I think last year's result was depressed 15-20 points by Nolan's handling of the team. 

[Taro T]

Oh, I don't think they were thinking Tank all season.  It was only at the very end when they got close that they even paid attention to it.  Then they were so close that it was maddening.

 

Make January a better month that .500 and give them a strong finish in March and April.... yeah, it's possible.

 

I see them digging a bit of a hole for themselves early in the year because of the new system and so many new faces.  If they can turn that around quickly, and maybe be a "buyer" at the trade deadline, they may be able to make a push for a playoff spot.

 

And I don't really see that as a 40+ point improvement int he standings because I think last year's result was depressed 15-20 points by Nolan's handling of the team.

 

It's possible - with some more talent brought in. 2 D, a RW, and a goalie and this team could be good once Danny Boy figures out the lines and they get comfortable w/ the system.

 

Interesting how what used to be the only spots that weren't a hot mess (RW&G) are now the weaknesses. (Ok, LW wasn't a hot mess either, but that was only because they'd always have 2 of them on the ice at all times. ;))

[Doohicksie]

...and when I say bring in 2 D, the solution may simply be to promote Pysyk & McCabe.  Pysyk showed he was capable of NHL level play 2 seasons ago.  I think he was kept down on the farm to keep him out of the hot mess that was the Tank, and also because they were "stuck" with Risto (who was also ready), and Zads (who would go back to Russia if demoted from the Sabres).  I could see Pysyk possibly all the way up on the 1st pairing eventually.

[Tondas]

Last year, they went

 

Oct 2-9-1

Nov 6-7-0

Dec 6-7-2

Jan 0-12-0

Feb 5-6-2

Mar 2-8-3

Apr 2-4-0

 

If they pick up 2 more wins each month, except Jan where they get 5 more and Apr w/ 1 more, they'd be:

 

Oct 4-7-1

Nov 8-5-0

Dec 8-5-2

Jan 5-7-0

Feb 7-4-2

Mar 4-6-3

Apr 3-3-0

 

Which would give them 39-35-8 --> 86. Make it 3 more wins, rather than 2, in only 4 more months and they're at 94. Unless they make virtually no more moves, low 90's isn't unthinkable; though high 80's are more realistic. (I'm still sticking w/ low 90's.)

 

How does any NHL team with 20 johnsons and 40 testicles go 0-12-0 in any month?

[Taro T]

How does any NHL team with 20 johnsons and 40 testicles go 0-12-0 in any month?

Uh, not having the Habs nor the Snarks on the schedule? :unsure:

[LGR4GM]

January, the month that saved the tank.  

[LastPommerFan]

Dedication.

[shrader]

How does any NHL team with 20 johnsons and 40 testicles go 0-12-0 in any month?

 

I feel like there's a Phil Kessel joke in here somewhere.

[Cereal]

To DeLuca's point: there are quite a few high-end players who are going to be UFAs in the summer of 2016. Some of them are going to be traded before then.

Here's a list of 2016 UFA's: http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/freeagents.php?team=all&type=UFA&year=2016&pos=ALL

[beerme1]

Between Bylsma, Kane, a full year of Bogo, some unknown pieces to come perhaps like ROR, Jack and who knows what else I think this could be an ultimate turn around year and to me it's playoffs or bust!

 

I get that there will certainly be growing pains. So many new faces that have to gel etc but what I don't get is guys like Button putting the brakes on next season as if it's just a throw away season. I don't think that at all.

 

Lets Go Buffalo

[Crusader1969]

Between Bylsma, Kane, a full year of Bogo, some unknown pieces to come perhaps like ROR, Jack and who knows what else I think this could be an ultimate turn around year and to me it's playoffs or bust!

 

I get that there will certainly be growing pains. So many new faces that have to gel etc but what I don't get is guys like Button putting the brakes on next season as if it's just a throw away season. I don't think that at all.

 

Lets Go Buffalo

 

 

I completely agree with Button when he said "if you think the Sabres will be a play-off team next year the only person you are kidding is yourself"

[beerme1]

I completely agree with Button when he said "if you think the Sabres will be a play-off team next year the only person you are kidding is yourself"

 

 

I completely disagree with Button about that. In fact many people have laid out realistic scenarios on improvements. I like Taros' recent one a lot.

Just win a couple more games each month for starters. And shouldn't that be realistic? Kids or not, wont they be better than Matt Ellis, Phil Varone, Zach Dalpe, and Pat Kaleta? Oh and how about as one way to realisticly improve, Just win SOME games in January FFS and they're you go.

 

I heard him say it, I get it, but there is also the flip side. Is he also saying hey guys you're not really going to improve despite a massive increase of talent and coaching next season. But the one after that those same guys will be lights out? Kids will certainly make their share of mistakes. Will they be worse than the no talent hacks instructed by a guy stuck in another time? I would argue no. No they won't be. They have a legitimate chance to make that leapfrog next season. I say that expecting a few more changes coming. Maybe a biggie too.  

 

It's time to look forward now. Let us pray.

[Doohicksie]

The Texas Rangers have gone from gawdawful last year and DFL the first month of this baseball season to tied for the last wildcard spot in the second month.  The biggest difference?  The emergence of youth as important pieces of the team.  Joey Gallo had 4 RBIs in his first MLB game including an upper deck home run.  Delino DeShields has become an ace leadoff hitter, starting tonight's game with a leadoff triple and a run scored (Rangers are 9-3 since he moved to leadoff).  Chi Chi Gonzales made his first major league appearance a few games ago and threw 5+ scoreless innings as the starter.  He topped that tonight by pitching a 9 inning shutout.

 

I'm not saying the Rangers are going to the World Series, but in one off-season where they switched general managers and now bringing in youth, they've improved to a team that is amazingly fun to watch.

 

I think the Sabres are completely capable of the same kind of improvement this year.

[Crusader1969]

id rather watch paint dry than watch let alone pay attention to baseball but that's beside the point. Im just saying that you are setting yourself up for disappointment if you are going to put a play-off run on a team who's top 2 centers under this scenario would have played a total of 9 NHL games.

 

Its good you have optimism and I hate being Debbie Downer  - just don't be upset if the team ends up around 75 to 80 points but take a huge step forward over the last two seasons.

 

I also agree with Button that this off-season the Sabres should do NOTHING. I don't need to see them trade assets for O'Reilly who has 1 year left on his contract and would project to a #2 center long term. Sabres already have Reinhart and Girgensons to add to Eichel as top 3 centers long term for them.

 

I'd like for them to sit back give all the kids 1 more season, figure out who is going to be here long term and who they can afford to trade.

 

I wouldn't even mind seeing Grigorenko in the top 3 this coming season with Samson in the minors. Maybe he can used as a trade chip next summer if he has a decent year - teams are always looking for a big, skilled winger. Hell, he may even turn himself into a contender for long term 2nd line center long term and move Samson to the 3 slot, and Girgensons to the wing.

 

 

Off-season game plan - sign a Chris Stewart type RW, a depth D and a goalie.  Unless an opportunity comes up to trade for an elite winger comes up again, like it did with Kane, then I sit back as GM and let my high-end Scotch Whiskey age for another year.

Edited June 6, 2015 by Crusader1969

[bunomatic]

id rather watch paint dry than watch let alone pay attention to baseball but that's beside the point. Im just saying that you are setting yourself up for disappointment if you are going to put a play-off run on a team who's top 2 centers under this scenario would have played a total of 9 NHL games.

 

Its good you have optimism and I hate being Debbie Downer  - just don't be upset if the team ends up around 75 to 80 points but take a huge step forward over the last two seasons.

 

I also agree with Button that this off-season the Sabres should do NOTHING. I don't need to see them trade assets for O'Reilly who has 1 year left on his contract and would project to a #2 center long term. Sabres already have Reinhart and Girgensons to add to Eichel as top 3 centers long term for them.

 

I'd like for them to sit back give all the kids 1 more season, figure out who is going to be here long term and who they can afford to trade.

 

I wouldn't even mind seeing Grigorenko in the top 3 this coming season with Samson in the minors. Maybe he can used as a trade chip next summer if he has a decent year - teams are always looking for a big, skilled winger. Hell, he may even turn himself into a contender for long term 2nd line center long term and move Samson to the 3 slot, and Girgensons to the wing.

 

 

Off-season game plan - sign a Chris Stewart type RW, a depth D and a goalie.  Unless an opportunity comes up to trade for an elite winger comes up again, like it did with Kane, then I sit back as GM and let my high-end Scotch Whiskey age for another year.

I agree with most if not all of this. I want GMTM to stick to the plan and not suddenly try and rush this thing. Let these kids develop.