Get to Know - Claude Julien

[TrueBlueGED]

Inspired by Ghost's thread advocating for Bylsma, the intent of this is to inform about, and advocate for, Claude Julien to be the next head coach of the Sabres. Yes, I'm fully aware the Bruins haven't made him available yet, but until he is officially unavailable he will remain my #1 choice.

 

The NHL Record (W-L-T-OL) points points% --playoffs

Montreal

2002-03: 12-16-3-5  32  .444%  --missed playoffs

2003-04: 41-30-7-4  93  .567%  --2nd round loss

2004-05: 19-16-6     44  .537%  --fired

New Jersey

2006-07: 47-24-8  102   .646%  --fired on April 2nd, before the playoffs (team slowed down the stretch and rumors of a player mutiny, but little real information)

Boston

2007-08: 41-29-12  94   .573%  --lost in 1st round, game 7

2008-09: 53-19-10 116  .707%  --lost in 2nd round

2009-10: 39-30-13 91    .555%  --lost in 2nd round

2010-11: 46-25-11 103  .628%  --Stanley Cup win

2011-12: 49-29-4   102  .622%  --lost in 1st round, game 7

2012-13: 28-14-6    62   .646%  --Stanley Cup loss

2013-14: 54-19-9   117  .713%  --lost in 2nd round

2014-15: 41-27-14  96   .585%  --missed playoffs

Career: 470-278-10-102  .612%  --61-47

 

So in total we have 8 playoff appearances in 12 years (fired twice midseason, at least one of which he would have made the playoffs) including 7/8 years in Boston--the one miss coming in a year where Boychuck was jettisoned in a cap move and Chara missed significant time to injury (and really, 96 points is normally good for a spot in the dance). Of those, he only lost in the 1st round twice, so he's a good bet to advance if he makes it in. His record of accomplishments is about as good as you could hope to have in a head coaching candidate.

 

The Stats

I know he has a bad reputation for coaching defensive hockey, but digging into the numbers...his teams score, and they score a lot. In this section I'm going to have goals for, goals against, and score-adjusted Corsi per year (for a sample of why coaching matters a lot for possession, check out this article here: http://hockeyanalysis.com/2015/02/24/coaching-corsi-dilemma/) with the league rank for each category. All numbers at even strength, data from war-on-ice.com. I use even strength data because of the overall importance of even strength play in a league that doesn't call penalties.

 

                Goals For      Goals Against      SA-Corsi (data only available since 2007, so numbers before that use shot differential as a proxy)

Montreal

2002-03: 130 - 10th       133 - 24th           44.6 - 26th **hired in the middle of the season**

2003-04: 124 - 16th       117 - 13th           48.1 - 21st

2004-05: **data missing** (he was fired anyway, so whatever)

New Jersey

2006-07: 122 - 22nd      130 - 11th           50.7 - 11th **fired late season**

Boston

2007-08: 123 - 24th       118 - 4th             51.7 - 10th

2008-09: 165 - 2nd        113 - 1st             51.8 - 9th

2009-10: 132 - 27th       136 - 7th             52.9 - 4th

2010-11: 175 - 1st         123 - 1st             51.6 - 10th

2011-12: 190 - 1st         145 - 10th           54.5 - 4th

2012-13: 92 - 7th           74 - 6th               55.5 - 3rd

2013-14: 175 - 3rd         111 - 2nd           55.2 - 3rd

2014-15: 140 - 20th        137 - 13th         51.9 - 11th

 

At even strength with a reasonable roster you could expect Julien's team to fall in the top-10 in every category, with years in the top-5. I can't break down game film, nor do I have interest in spending time to do so, but he's doing something right at even strength. If there is one wart it's that his special teams are usually middle of the pack...but without penalties being called, do you care all that much? 

 

The Player Development

I want to tread very lightly in this section. For starters, I am skeptical of the degree of impact a coach has on development (I say marginal) and there's really not a good way to measure this anyway. So just keep in mind that saying "X player developed under Y coach" is much different than saying "X player developed because of Y coach." Secondly, I am admittedly cherry-picking players here to developed well and exceeded expectations relative to draft position--for a full picture I should really include all prospects including failures, but unless somebody is paying me for this, that's not going to happen. So the best way of reading this section is as some evidence that he hasn't stood in the way of development. I also only include players that Julien was around for early in their career (for example, it would be ludicrous to suggest he developed Loui Eriksson).

 

Patrice Bergeron - all-around stud, Selke winner, drafted 45th overall

David Krejci - very good offensive center, with a responsible defensive game, drafted 63rd overall

Milan Lucic - everyone's favorite power forward, drafted 50th overall

Carl Soderberg - spent most of his career in Europe, came over a couple years ago and looks like a steady 40+ point player (not saying Julien helped develop, but may have helped transition him to the North American game)

Brad Marchand - 1st/2nd line winger, drafted 71st overall

Daniel Paille - Ghost's son, successfully recovered from Ruff's school of wussitude

Torey Krug - very good offensive defenseman, undrafted

Dougie Hamilton - very good offensive defenseman, developing defensive game, drafted 9th overall.....okay okay so he hasn't exceeded expectations, but who doesn't like Dougie?

Johnny Boychuk - rock solid to-4 defenseman, drafted 61st overall

Tuukka Rask - elite goaltender, drafted 21st overall...I consider him exceeding expectations because nobody knows how to project goaltenders

Tyler Seguin - franchise center, 2nd overall...hey, it's not his fault the front office executed a terrible trade because a 20 year old liked to party

Zdeno Chara - HoF defender...was Chara Chara before he was in Boston? I've heard arguments both ways, but if he wasn't Norris-caliber before coming to Boston, then maybe Julien gets some kind of credit

 

The point I'm trying to get at is a bunch of mid-rounders developed extremely well during Julien's time in Boston. Again, not necessarily attributing causality here, but it's nice to see.

 

The Analysis

All told I think Julien is one of the best coaches in the game with the only apparent hole being special teams (and his press conferences...good lord I can't stand this whiny shrew). The reason I have zero'd in on Julien over other contenders is two-fold. First, I think for the first time in awhile I'm more attracted to coaches with an NHL track record because of the youth that's going to be on the team; I'm just not sure I want a coach learning on his job when he's supposed to be teaching the players (I know these things don't have to be mutually exclusive, but I think many will agree with the general sentiment). Secondly, the performance of his teams at even strength is excellent, and has been so over a long stretch of time--these results are no flash in the pan. Even this year, with the trades, injuries, and overall declining roster, he still put up a season that most years makes the playoffs. Speaking of playoffs, when he gets there, his teams usually advance...very few one and dones on his resume. Even strength play is by far the most important determinant of team success in today's NHL, and if the playoffs are any indication, that is not going to change any time soon. He coaches a high-end possession game, and the results follow. He checks every box you could look for in a coach...except press conferences. Seriously, it's painful to listen to him talk.

 

For all of the above reasons I don't think Boston lets him walk, but if they do, I hope the Sabres pounce (and naturally I hope they're patient enough to let this play out).

[stinky finger]

Listening to new Bruin GM Don Sweeney today, I don't think Claude is long for Beantown.

 

I agree, a good candidate.

[MBHockey13]

I'd rather Dave Tippett become available.

[wjag]

I would be very pleased to get him...

 

My gut tells me he will hang on in Boston.  If he was going to be let go, I would have thought it would have happened by now.

[Derrico]

Nice analysis blue, this is my favourite candidate if he does become available.

[nfreeman]

Excellent post, TBPhD.  You've pushed him pretty close to Disco Dan in my book and maybe even ahead of him (sorry GoDD -- you know I love the heart-and-soul pitch but I like the numbers too).

 

One question:  why score-adjusted Corsi and not "straight up" Corsi?

[TrueBlueGED]

Excellent post, TBPhD.  You've pushed him pretty close to Disco Dan in my book and maybe even ahead of him (sorry GoDD -- you know I love the heart-and-soul pitch but I like the numbers too).

 

One question:  why score-adjusted Corsi and not "straight up" Corsi?

 

Intuitively, we know that teams play differently when they're protecting a lead or trying to overcome a deficit. Even offensive teams with a lead tend to take the foot off the gas, while defensive teams will open things up a bit when trailing. The numbers have confirmed that this in fact happens. The consensus in the analytics community is that the relative strength of teams is most accurately determined when they're "playing their game" so to speak, when the score is close, rather than when things get altered with a lopsided score. So score-adjusted Corsi weighs the shot attempts higher the closer the score is.

 

It used to be that everyone used "close" metrics which would only look at the shot attempts when the score was tied or within one goal, and toss everything else out. But somebody's light bulb went on and realized completely tossing out data is generally a poor approach, and came up with a weighting scheme instead--it still captures that score effects matter, but doesn't assume that the data is useless if the score is a 2+ goal differential. The score-adjusted metrics were found to be better in every respect than the "close" metrics. 

 

Edit: Just to expand a little, you could end up with a dominant possession team looking less dominant in possession than they actually are because they're usually protecting a lead. The flip side is also true, that you could see a very poor possession team looking better than they are due to the team they're facing going into a defensive shell. So adjusting for score effects make it less likely that the stats will mislead.

Edited May 21, 2015 by TrueBluePhD

[qwksndmonster]

Good stuff, Blue.  I don't know that much about Julien, other than his teams are always ready to play.  Especially in the playoffs.  His playoff history is just as impressive as Babdick and Hot Daniel, if not moreso.

 

Sexy, sexy Julien.

[CallawaySabres]

My vote goes here. Man I can't wait to go to that first Toronto game.

[bunomatic]

Julian plays out as a good coach. But that grimace. Vanek shrivelled up like a slug on salt when he saw that grimace. I'm torn.

[Kruppstahl]

If he is fired and becomes available, Julien is the best candidate I can think of.

 

I put him slightly above Hitchcock in that regard.

[Eleven]

Yeah, I want the one hockey coach that got skewered by Jon Stewart.  Sure.

 

 

 

I mean, for a hockey coach to make The Daily Show, he must be a super ###### moron.  And Julien is one.

 

(Even though he's sexy.)

 

(Yes, I know it's fake.)

Edited May 21, 2015 by Eleven

[dudacek]

I despise Julien.

But there is certainly a good case to be made for him being the perfect fit here.

He's got Nolan's ability to create an us-against-the-world atmosphere in the room, but with loads more tactical ability and hockey knowledge.

Anyone that can make a collection of douchebags like the Bruins stick together is doing something right.

Nice work Blue.

 

So is X. doing the Deboer thread?

[beerme1]

Don't like him but don't need to. Has my respect as a coach in that I would love to punch him in the face. He certainly fits the play a heavy game style more than the Babcock also.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

Good work also. If he becomes available he would be my #2.

 

They dumped Seguin for a reason.....they have Bergeron and Krejci.

 

They won the Cup with a team i admire. The two I mentioned....Lucic, Chara, Rechhi, Marchand, Ference, Boychuk, Thornton.......they were heavy but balanced. I think Murray is building this exact same team concept so he would make tons of sense.  

[dudacek]

I think he might be a better coach for this team than Disco Dan for the reason you post above.

[...]

I despise Julien.

But there is certainly a good case to be made for him being the perfect fit here.

He's got Nolan's ability to create an us-against-the-world atmosphere in the room, but with loads more tactical ability and hockey knowledge.

Anyone that can make a collection of douchebags like the Bruins stick together is doing something right.

 

 

Love it.

 

Yes, TBPhD, I have to say, I would be willing to look the other way if he was our man in the end, based strictly on the argument you presented.  Good job.

 

I personally don't have a top 5 list, yet, so I won't go on record ranking him for myself, but it's interesting to see who has him as their number one or two.

[nfreeman]

Intuitively, we know that teams play differently when they're protecting a lead or trying to overcome a deficit. Even offensive teams with a lead tend to take the foot off the gas, while defensive teams will open things up a bit when trailing. The numbers have confirmed that this in fact happens. The consensus in the analytics community is that the relative strength of teams is most accurately determined when they're "playing their game" so to speak, when the score is close, rather than when things get altered with a lopsided score. So score-adjusted Corsi weighs the shot attempts higher the closer the score is.

 

It used to be that everyone used "close" metrics which would only look at the shot attempts when the score was tied or within one goal, and toss everything else out. But somebody's light bulb went on and realized completely tossing out data is generally a poor approach, and came up with a weighting scheme instead--it still captures that score effects matter, but doesn't assume that the data is useless if the score is a 2+ goal differential. The score-adjusted metrics were found to be better in every respect than the "close" metrics.

 

Edit: Just to expand a little, you could end up with a dominant possession team looking less dominant in possession than they actually are because they're usually protecting a lead. The flip side is also true, that you could see a very poor possession team looking better than they are due to the team they're facing going into a defensive shell. So adjusting for score effects make it less likely that the stats will mislead.

Great explanation. Thanks.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

I think he might be a better coach for this team than Disco Dan for the reason you post above.

 

Julien isn't available as of now....and that Boston team had more overall talent than Pittsburgh when they won their cups. Tim Thomas alone at the time was maybe the best in the league.

 

I think Bylsma can relate better because of his age.

 

Who does Boston hire if they fire him?

Great explanation. Thanks.

 

Does he happen to have the numbers for the changes when Bylsma took over, and when he left?

 

Also, what are Bylsma's numbers in the general regard? If the whole point is that someone plays different in protecting a lead, and you value that difference....then how can you blast a guy who was up 3-1 in a conference final series on one hand, yet praise someone else for not squeaking out analytics while riding a lead on the other hand?

[dudacek]

Julien isn't available as of now....and that Boston team had more overall talent than Pittsburgh when they won their cups. Tim Thomas alone at the time was maybe the best in the league.

 

I think Bylsma can relate better because of his age.

 

?

Fair point on the overall talent of the Bruins, but again I think that favours Julien, because that is the type of team we're building, one without a Crosby, but with a lot of depth top to bottom. I see Murray wanting more hard to play against over light em up. The more I think about it, the more I hope Julien becomes available. (I need a shower)

[qwksndmonster]

Julien isn't available as of now....and that Boston team had more overall talent than Pittsburgh when they won their cups. Tim Thomas alone at the time was maybe the best in the league.

 

I think Bylsma can relate better because of his age.

 

Who does Boston hire if they fire him?

I'm not sure Boston had more overall talent, but if you're counting Tim Thomas you might be right.  During their cup run, that was the best goal tending I've ever seen from anyone (too young for Hasek).

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

I'm not sure Boston had more overall talent, but if you're counting Tim Thomas you might be right.  During their cup run, that was the best goal tending I've ever seen from anyone (too young for Hasek).

 

Thomas for a few years was the closest to Hasek I've seen. In reliability and style.

[qwksndmonster]

Thomas for a few years was the closest to Hasek I've seen. In reliability and style.

He was a serious in the crease too.  Slashing, diving, helping his D-men clear.  So fun to watch.

[Huckleberry]

Nice analysis blue, this is my favourite candidate if he does become available.

 

I don't like his face :p

 

Fair point on the overall talent of the Bruins, but again I think that favours Julien, because that is the type of team we're building, one without a Crosby, but with a lot of depth top to bottom. I see Murray wanting more hard to play against over light em up. The more I think about it, the more I hope Julien becomes available. (I need a shower)

 

Take two showers :D

[LGR4GM]

What I think about hiring Claude Julien as the next Sabres HC: