Derrico Posted May 19, 2015 Report Posted May 19, 2015 The Cap went up from 39 million to 69 million in only 10 years. It's just the cost of doing business now. $8 million today is equivalent to $6 million type players three years ago.
WildCard Posted May 19, 2015 Report Posted May 19, 2015 Salaries paid =/= quality of player!! That's the point that you keep bringing up I don't agree with. Was Ville Leino the 50th best NHL player or whatever he was based on his contract? Teams overpay guys all the time. But I think it's safe to look at benchmark contracts like Toews/Kane (most recent "mega-delas") and consider the value of other contracts relative to them. Are we really gonna say RoR is only $2 mil/year less than Toews, who is easily a top 3 center in the league when we don't even have RoR going in the top 15 in centers in the superdraft?
LGR4GM Posted May 19, 2015 Author Report Posted May 19, 2015 Okay let's ignore contract stuff for a minute because I don't have time to go back into the contracts and adjust everyones for inflation... although that might make an interesting project outside of the confines of this discussion. Where do you (any posters) rank ROR in the NHL? #33, #12, #54? If you had to rank him where would he fall?
Hoss Posted May 19, 2015 Report Posted May 19, 2015 He went 33rd on the consensus draft didn't he? So top 30... moving on. Wut?
Samson's Flow Posted May 19, 2015 Report Posted May 19, 2015 He went 33rd on the consensus draft didn't he? So top 30... moving on. He went #49 to Whisky. Not sure where you got #33...
Patty16 Posted May 19, 2015 Report Posted May 19, 2015 Teams overpay guys all the time. But I think it's safe to look at benchmark contracts like Toews/Kane (most recent "mega-delas") and consider the value of other contracts relative to them. Are we really gonna say RoR is only $2 mil/year less than Toews, who is easily a top 3 center in the league when we don't even have RoR going in the top 15 in centers in the superdraft? I agree for the type of player RoR is we don't need to overpay for that. But Toews/Kane recent deals pay them 13.8M once it kicks in. way more than ROR
LGR4GM Posted May 19, 2015 Author Report Posted May 19, 2015 He went 33rd on the consensus draft didn't he? So top 30... moving on. I can't read he went 49th. So is he the 49th best player in the NHL? Yea or nay?
Derrico Posted May 19, 2015 Report Posted May 19, 2015 (edited) Okay let's ignore contract stuff for a minute because I don't have time to go back into the contracts and adjust everyones for inflation... although that might make an interesting project outside of the confines of this discussion. Where do you (any posters) rank ROR in the NHL? #33, #12, #54? If you had to rank him where would he fall? But it all ties back to the contract. Myself, and some others, are saying ROR is worth 7.5 to 8 million which is pay for a very good player but not the most elite in the NHL. I feel this is the range of a guy that would get around $6 million three years ago. Therefore, he is being paid like a top 90 forward should be, not top 30. If you recognize that then you may agree that we are not 'having it both ways' by saying ROR should be paid elite money but then should not be traded for elite prospects. I'm saying $8 mil is not elite money in today's cap world and therefore he won't be traded for an elite haul. Edited May 19, 2015 by Derrico
Samson's Flow Posted May 19, 2015 Report Posted May 19, 2015 Okay let's ignore contract stuff for a minute because I don't have time to go back into the contracts and adjust everyones for inflation... although that might make an interesting project outside of the confines of this discussion. Where do you (any posters) rank ROR in the NHL? #33, #12, #54? If you had to rank him where would he fall? Well he went #78 in ESPN Fantasy Hockey based on average draft pick. Right next to guys like Mike Green and Milan Lucic. That seems about right to me. I realize fantasy hockey doesn't take into account his defensive contribution, but it is a very good way to get a large sample of what the public thinks is his relative worth. http://games.espn.go.com/fhl/livedraftresults
LastPommerFan Posted May 19, 2015 Report Posted May 19, 2015 Well he went #78 in ESPN Fantasy Hockey based on average draft pick. Right next to guys like Mike Green and Milan Lucic. That seems about right to me. I realize fantasy hockey doesn't take into account his defensive contribution, but it is a very good way to get a large sample of what the public thinks is his relative worth. http://games.espn.go.com/fhl/livedraftresults 11th overall RW.
Samson's Flow Posted May 19, 2015 Report Posted May 19, 2015 11th overall RW. In a tier with Gustav Nyquist and Jordan Eberle (#12 and #13 RW but only 10 total spots difference)
dudacek Posted May 19, 2015 Report Posted May 19, 2015 (edited) I know this sounds like I am being a pain but I really want people to consider this. There is a discord between what we say he is worth talent wise, what he is worth monetarily, and what we are willing to actually give up to acquire him. You are being a pain :P The disconnect has been explained pretty clearly: his contract situation decreases his trade value, and increases the amount of money he will make disproportionately to his actual rank as a player. Fine I will go do the research. Seriously I feel like I should be hired to do research... :flirt: Whiskey and I did the research and came up with several situations where first line forwards in similar contract situations were traded. Not once did that player result in a Bogosian or a Ristolainen in return. Why are you expecting O'Reilly to be the exception? Edited May 19, 2015 by dudacek
LastPommerFan Posted May 19, 2015 Report Posted May 19, 2015 He was tied for 58th in points for forwards. Tied for 44th in Relative Corsi.
Samson's Flow Posted May 19, 2015 Report Posted May 19, 2015 You are being a pain :P The disconnect has been explained pretty clearly: his contract situation decreases his trade value, and increases the amount of money he will make disproportionately to his actual rank as a player. Whiskey and I did the research and came up with several situations where a first line forward with similar contract situations was traded. Not once did that player result in a Bogosian or a Ristolainen in return. Why are you expecting O'Reilly to be the exception? Because if he isn't contrarian than this thread dies and a consensus is reached.
dudacek Posted May 19, 2015 Report Posted May 19, 2015 I can't read he went 49th. So is he the 49th best player in the NHL? Yea or nay? I think where he went wasn't out of line at all, give or take a dozen picks. He's definitely a first-line forward/top 100 player, and probably a top 50 player.
Samson's Flow Posted May 19, 2015 Report Posted May 19, 2015 He was tied for 58th in points for forwards. Tied for 44th in Relative Corsi. I think where he went wasn't out of line at all, give or take a dozen picks. He's definitely a first-line forward/top 100 player, and probably a top 50 player. Given his fantasy hockey average draft pick of #78, and the stats given by Whisky showing 58th in points for forwards and 44 in Rel Corsi, plus the superdraft pick of #49, which would take into account his age, I would say his ranking would be safely be somewhere in the 50's for overall player. That's a great player. I think we would all like him on our team. The situation in Colorado and uncertainty of signing him long term depresses his trade value IMO, so you have to balance all those factors as well. That unknown of whether you are trading for one year of ROR, or a new 6 year contract is why the trade values are all over the map in this thread.
Patty16 Posted May 19, 2015 Report Posted May 19, 2015 Given his fantasy hockey average draft pick of #78, and the stats given by Whisky showing 58th in points for forwards and 44 in Rel Corsi, plus the superdraft pick of #49, which would take into account his age, I would say his ranking would be safely be somewhere in the 50's for overall player. That's a great player. I think we would all like him on our team. The situation in Colorado and uncertainty of signing him long term depresses his trade value IMO, so you have to balance all those factors as well. That unknown of whether you are trading for one year of ROR, or a new 6 year contract is why the trade values are all over the map in this thread. That and because he's really a two way forward and not a scoring winger per se. Fantasy draft status has no actual value when assessing a player's value to a team. O reilly was a 4th line player on Team Canada at IIHF and that's without it's best players showing up to the tourney. He's not a top line center on most teams. I do like him as a 2 or 3 guy but not at $8M which i saw he was looking for
dudacek Posted May 19, 2015 Report Posted May 19, 2015 That and because he's really a two way forward and not a scoring winger per se. Fantasy draft status has no actual value when assessing a player's value to a team. O reilly was a 4th line player on Team Canada at IIHF and that's without it's best players showing up to the tourney. He's not a top line center on most teams. I do like him as a 2 or 3 guy but not at $8M which i saw he was looking for He wasn't a fourth-liner. In the final he started against OV's line with Giroux and (I think) Seguin. Also among the team's leading scorers with 11 points in 10 games.
Sabrestrike Posted May 19, 2015 Report Posted May 19, 2015 It's just impossible to evaluate O'Reilly without knowing what we'd have to pay him. If he wants to get paid like a superstar, we know he is not that. If he wants to get paid like 2nd line player, that makes sense. We'll have to overpay for free agents here, at least until this train gets rolling.
deluca67 Posted May 19, 2015 Report Posted May 19, 2015 Bobby Ryan: Jakub Silfverberg, Stefan Noesen and a 1st Sabres equivalent: Mikhail Girgorenko, Justin Bailey and a 1st Jame Neal: Patrick Hornqvist and Nick Spaling Sabres equivalent: Tyler Ennis and Johan Larsson Ryan Kesler: Nick Bonino, Luca Sbisa and a first Sabres equivalent: Tyler Ennis, Mike Weber and a first Ryan Callahan: Martin St Louis, a first and a conditional 2nd Sabres equivalent: Brian Gionta (plus), a first and a second Jason Pominville: Matt Hackett, Johan Larsson, a 1st and a 2nd Sabres equivalent: Matt Hackett, Johan Larsson, a 1st and a 2nd Rick Nash: Brandon Dubinsky, Artem Anisimov, Jan Erixon, 1st Sabres equivalent: Marcus Foligno, Mikhail Grigorenko, Jake McCabe, 1st You keep insinuating it will take a frontline player or prospect to get O'Reilly. History shows that's not the case in similar situations. EDIT: Whiskey beat me to it. I'm sorry, in what universe are Silfverberg and Grigorenko "equivalent?" Or did you mean to type Girgensons?
Huckleberry Posted May 19, 2015 Report Posted May 19, 2015 I'm sorry, in what universe are Silfverberg and Grigorenko "equivalent?" Or did you mean to type Girgensons? I think he means at the time of the trade, Silverberg was still clawing his way into the NHL.
LastPommerFan Posted May 19, 2015 Report Posted May 19, 2015 I'm sorry, in what universe are Silfverberg and Grigorenko "equivalent?" Or did you mean to type Girgensons? when Ryan was traded for Silfverberg, he was coming off an AHL season that was VERY similar to Grigorenko's last season. And Mikhail is 2 years younger that Sifverberg was at the time.
deluca67 Posted May 19, 2015 Report Posted May 19, 2015 I think he means at the time of the trade, Silverberg was still clawing his way into the NHL. Silfverberg was light years ahead in 2012-13 of where Grigorenko is now. It was pretty clear Silfverberg was going to be an NHL player, Grigorenko has a long way to go to get there.
MBHockey13 Posted May 19, 2015 Report Posted May 19, 2015 Silfverberg was light years ahead in 2012-13 of where Grigorenko is now. It was pretty clear Silfverberg was going to be an NHL player, Grigorenko has a long way to go to get there. I'm not sure that's the case. I've heard a bunch of talk about how much Silfverberg is exceeding expectations. In fact, people are thinking Anaheim has really won that trade big time.
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