The Ryan O'Reilly super thread 2015!!!

[dudacek]

His contract does nothing until the trade deadline. Any team willing to trade for ROR this summer believes they can re-sign him.  

 

 

Any team trading for O'Reilly this summer without assurances they can re-sign him is taking a huge risk.

Murray gave up a small fortune for Kane because he is under contract.

O'Reilly may be similar stature to Kane, but unless the other GM is incompetent, he is not going to get a Kane-level return because of his contract.

To suggest otherwise is a fallacy.

 

 

 

There are not actually 180 top 6 forwards in the league. Mathmatically you could argue that but how many top 6 forwards did we have last year?  2?  Because of that you are counting more than there really are.  I could argue that Chicago really only has 5 top 6 forwards.  It isn't as simple as doing the math. A top 6 forward in Phoenix could be a bottom 3 guy on every playoff team.  The actual number of true top 6 forwards around the league is probably 90.  

 

 

 So the top team in the league only has five top-six forwards, and by top-six forwards, you really mean top three in today's NHL. Got it.

 So what is that worth to you?  Is ROR worth 2 rostered guys, a prospect and a pick?

 

 Define rostered guy: Moulson and Gorges are a helluvalot different than Zemgus and Risto.

 

Rick Nash, Jason Pominville, Ryan Callahan, Ryan Kesler, James Neal, Bobby Ryan — what kind of returns did they get? That's your starting point.

Edited May 18, 2015 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

Bergeron is a superior defensive player to ROR.  Little surprised actually. 

Any team trading for O'Reilly this summer without assurances they can re-sign him is taking a huge risk.

Murray gave up a small fortune for Kane because he is under contract.

O'Reilly may be similar stature to Kane, but unless the other GM is incompetent, he is not going to get a Kane-level return because of his contract.

To suggest otherwise is a fallacy.

 

 

 

 

 So the top team in the league only has five top-six forwards, and by top-six forwards, you really mean top three in today's NHL. Got it.

 Define rostered guy: Moulson and Gorges are a helluvalot different than Zemgus and Risto.

 

Rick Nash, Jason Pominville, Ryan Callahan, Ryan Kesler, James Neal, Bobby Ryan — what kind of returns did they get? That's your starting point.

You're right. Zemgus and Risto have more upside going forward than Gorges and Moulson. 

I could look up those trades but as I was told by Hoss yesterday make your own argument.  Rick Nash we actually discussed earlier.  My asking price is ball park. Again this board seems to have agreed he is worth being paid equivalent to 12 other guys in the NHL. If he is worth top 12 nhl money, what is his trade value?

Edited May 18, 2015 by LGR4GM

[dudacek]

Bergeron is a superior defensive player to ROR.  Little surprised actually. 

You're right. Zemgus and Risto have more upside going forward than Gorges and Moulson. 

I could look up those trades but as I was told by Hoss yesterday make your own argument.  Rick Nash we actually discussed earlier.  My asking price is ball park. Again this board seems to have agreed he is worth being paid equivalent to 12 other guys in the NHL. If he is worth top 12 nhl money, what is his trade value?

 

You are trying to force this argument onto a platform that doesn't exist in reality.

I guess it's because you are tired of people "overrating" O'Reilly, yet still thinking they can acquire him for cheap.

 

Circumstances dictate contract just as much as skill. Contract dictates trade value just as much as skill.

I'd be surprised if anyone thinks he is in the top 12 players in the NHL and he won't get that value in a trade because of his contract.

But he might get that kind of contract because of circumstances.

 

It doesn't fit into a tidy box but that's how the NHL works.

[LGR4GM]

Let's start at the beginning because I am not being clear.

 

This board has reached somewhat of a consensus on ROR.  So let us describe that. 

 

1) ROR is going to command 8mil per year after this current contract expires in 2016.  He should be paid 8mil per year because of his solid defensive game.  

2) Being paid 8mil per year would make ROR tied for the 12th highest paid player in the NHL

3) The Sabres could trade and should trade for ROR.  His trade value, from what I gathered from people here would be something like Zadorov, Grigorenko (Roy connection), and the 21st overall pick in the 2015 draft.  

4) Thoughts? 

You are trying to force this argument onto a platform that doesn't exist in reality.

I guess it's because you are tired of people "overrating" O'Reilly, yet still thinking they can acquire him for cheap.

 

Circumstances dictate contract just as much as skill. Contract dictates trade value just as much as skill.

I'd be surprised if anyone thinks he is in the top 12 players in the NHL and he won't get that value in a trade because of his contract.

But he might get that kind of contract because of circumstances.

 

It doesn't fit into a tidy box but that's how the NHL works.

The circumstances of the contract still leaves the contract at 8million per year. If he is traded for this summer the new team clearly believes they can re-sign him.  

If he isn't a top 12 player, and I would argue he isn't top 20, why is he being paid as such?  

[LastPommerFan]

I don't think he moves until the deadline and only if Colorado is well out of the playoff picture. With the new lottery system next year, I expect GMs to be much more hesitant to move their first round picks until they know a little more about where they stand. I don't see the teams that are confident about the playoffs next year as willing to part with NHL pieces for him, so I think it's gonna be a first and a prospect at the deadline or Colorado signs him themselves.

Edited May 18, 2015 by Whiskey Bottle of Emotion

[dudacek]

Let's start at the beginning because I am not being clear.

 

This board has reached somewhat of a consensus on ROR.  So let us describe that. 

 

1) ROR is going to command 8mil per year after this current contract expires in 2016.  He should be paid 8mil per year because of his solid defensive game.  

2) Being paid 8mil per year would make ROR tied for the 12th highest paid player in the NHL

3) The Sabres could trade and should trade for ROR.  His trade value, from what I gathered from people here would be something like Zadorov, Grigorenko (Roy connection), and the 21st overall pick in the 2015 draft.  

4) Thoughts? 

 

Speaking only for myself:

1) ROR might command $8 million as free agent in 2016 because of supply and demand. That's because he is just 25 years old, in addition to being a fine defensive player and 59th in NHL scoring over the past three years.

2) I'll take your word for it. Doesn't mean he deserves it, but circumstances could work in his favour. 25-year-old first-liners with complete games, who can play any position don't come along often as UFAs.

3) The Sabres have the assets to get ROR should he become available. But to get him for the price suggested, they would have to depend on ROR forcing Colorado's hand, ROR being open to coming to Buffalo, and other teams not being able to enter the bidding due to cap and contract concerns.

Edited May 18, 2015 by dudacek

[nfreeman]

I don't think GMTM would trade both of them. I am telling you one of them at least is going to be asked for.  Also there is NFW to quote you that my suggestion was Bizarro.  Either ROR is a top 6 forward worth top 6 money and top 6 trade value or he isn't.  Top 6 value is 2 roster player, prospect, pick.  So you are looking at Foligno, Zemgus, Risto, Bogosian, Zadorov (maybe), Ennis, Kane, Moulson.  That is your list of roster players that might peak interest if you, as I believe you are, say ROR is a top 6 elite defensive forward.  Pick two of them, and in a prospect (Grigorenko is still a prospect) and a pick.  If I am Colorado, I want Zemgus or Risto back otherwise I shop ROR elsewhere. No reason not to help fix my team by offering up Foligno, Grigorenko and a 1st.  

 

Again.  If ROR is a top6 player which I have been repeatedly told, then you have to pay top 6 prices.  Or he isn't a top 6 player. 

 

I agree that Colorado will ask for one of them.  That is a far cry from saying that Colorado will require both of them in order to trade with the Sabres.  No one in the NHL will give up that much for him.

 

IMHO, a good comparable for ROR is Chris Drury.  Certainly the Sabres, if they trade for ROR and give him a fat contract (and I agree that it will cost $7MM+ per year to sign him), will hope that ROR becomes another Drury. 

 

To get Drury, the Sabres gave up Rhett Warrener, a no-BS top-4 defenseman, plus Steve Reinprecht, a journeyman forward (the Sabres got back Steve Begin, another journeyman forward, in the deal).  So it was essentially Warrener for Drury. 

 

Risto's ceiling is higher than Warrener's was, but if GMTM is confident about Nikita and the other young defensemen in the system, I could see him biting the bullet and giving up Risto.

 

NB that I completely agree with Dudacek that there is NFW that GMTM gives up Risto or anything of that ilk without an extension in place for ROR.

 

I don't think he moves until the deadline and only if Colorado is well out of the playoff picture. With the new lottery system next year, I expect GMs to be much more hesitant to move their first round picks until they know a little more about where they stand. I don't see the teams that are confident about the playoffs next year as willing to part with NHL pieces for him, so I think it's gonna be a first and a prospect at the deadline or Colorado signs him themselves.

 

I don't agree.  I think if ROR tells Colorado he's not re-signing with them under any circumstances, Colorado will decide to move him this summer, as that is when they will get the best return.

[Hoss]

Let's start at the beginning because I am not being clear.

 

This board has reached somewhat of a consensus on ROR. So let us describe that.

 

1) ROR is going to command 8mil per year after this current contract expires in 2016. He should be paid 8mil per year because of his solid defensive game.

2) Being paid 8mil per year would make ROR tied for the 12th highest paid player in the NHL

3) The Sabres could trade and should trade for ROR. His trade value, from what I gathered from people here would be something like Zadorov, Grigorenko (Roy connection), and the 21st overall pick in the 2015 draft.

4) Thoughts?

1. Yes and no. We're not paying him purely because of his defensive game as much as you want to believe that. He's a great two-way forward, not just a defensive forward. He is capable of 60 points at 24 and I'm sure that number will go up. He's not just a shut-down forward.

2. Okay. What's your point? As has been pointed out many times you can't compare it so black and white like this. If everybody was suddenly a free agent right now when the anticipation is that the cap will skyrocket soon do you think he'd still be the 13th highest paid player? He wouldn't. The circumstances surrounding the time when those players signed dictates what they got.

3. Nobody proposed that lately. The proposal was Zadorov, Girgensons and 21. But I know that doesn't help your argument against the masses supporting a trade.

4. I think about soft served ice cream a lot.

[Huckleberry]

I'm not saying i'd give up Zadorov + Girgensons + 21st, i think that is overpaying by alot.

But that is what colorado will ask for.

[LGR4GM]

1. Yes and no. We're not paying him purely because of his defensive game as much as you want to believe that. He's a great two-way forward, not just a defensive forward. He is capable of 60 points at 24 and I'm sure that number will go up. He's not just a shut-down forward.

2. Okay. What's your point? As has been pointed out many times you can't compare it so black and white like this. If everybody was suddenly a free agent right now when the anticipation is that the cap will skyrocket soon do you think he'd still be the 13th highest paid player? He wouldn't. The circumstances surrounding the time when those players signed dictates what they got.

3. Nobody proposed that lately. The proposal was Zadorov, Girgensons and 21. But I know that doesn't help your argument against the masses supporting a trade.

4. I think about soft served ice cream a lot.

Capable yes but realistically you should expect him in the 50-55pt range. There is no indication that number will go up unless league rules change.  ROR has 1 season over 60pts.  A season in which he had 10 more goals than statistically he will average based off of his sh%.

 

Why is the cap magically "skyrocketing" soon?  Who said this was happening?  

 

Zadorov, Zemgus, 21... okay but people say Zemgus isn't a top 6 player in the end so that is still an under payment right?

 

Worst part of this entire argument is I really like ROR as a player.  I think he is good. I just don't think he is worth the cost of acquiring and extended him. 

Edited May 18, 2015 by LGR4GM

[Hoss]

Capable yes but realistically you should expect him in the 50-55pt range. There is no indication that number will go up unless league rules change. ROR has 1 season over 60pts. A season in which he had 10 more goals than statistically he will average based off of his sh%.

 

 

 

Worst part of this entire argument is I really like ROR as a player. I think he is good. I just don't think he is worth the cost of acquiring and extended him.

Okay. So expect 50-55 points instead of 60. Is that a big enough difference to put together an argument about his offensive game? Probably not. He's a great two-way forward. That's what we want to pay him for. Not for defense alone.

[LGR4GM]

Okay. So expect 50-55 points instead of 60. Is that a big enough difference to put together an argument about his offensive game? Probably not. He's a great two-way forward. That's what we want to pay him for. Not for defense alone.

He's a good 2-way forward.  You want to pay him like he is great.  

[sabresith]

All he is worth to me is CoHo, Foligno, and the 21st pick. IMO RoR is a slightly better player than Foligno. Personally to me he is a over hyped and way overvalued. I wouldn't trade anything close to what has been suggested in this thread.

[LabattBlue]

You are ignoring the contract situation and how it devalues O'Reilly.

 

Also, how can there be any doubt O'Reilly is top-six forward?

Can you name 50 forwards better than him, let alone 180?

^^^ THIS!!!

 

Now can the "my dick is bigger than your dick", which is this thread, end?

[LGR4GM]

^^^ THIS!!!

 

Now can the "my dick is bigger than your dick", which is this thread, end?

 

[Hoss]

Now can the "my dick is bigger than your dick", which is this thread, end?

So the board finally gets some consistent and good debate with zero personal insults and its people shaking their ? I don't think so. This thread has been enjoyable. If you don't like it ignore it. Rare that a debate can hold this long without devolving.

[LGR4GM]

Yea, I have been trying really hard not do personal insults in some instances (out of frustration, I actually love you all) but at least we have thoroughly debated ROR from multiple angles. 

[LastPommerFan]

I don't agree. I think if ROR tells Colorado he's not re-signing with them under any circumstances, Colorado will decide to move him this summer, as that is when they will get the best return.

I don't see why ROR nor ROR's management would tell Colorado NFW before the deadline. He's not coming off his best season and they can't even begin to officially negotiate a possibly extension until July 1 (or the week before now, I can't remember how the calendar works with the new CBA.).

 

The only advantage would be if he felt like this was going to be a down year for him, and he wanted to get an extension signed before it played out. athletes typically don't think like that.

[deluca67]

All he is worth to me is CoHo, Foligno, and the 21st pick. IMO RoR is a slightly better player than Foligno. Personally to me he is a over hyped and way overvalued. I wouldn't trade anything close to what has been suggested in this thread.

If I thought Colorado would take this deal I would pick up Tim Murray and drive him to Colorado myself to pick O'Reilly up and bring him to Buffalo. While I'm there, who wants brownies?  :flirt:

[X. Benedict]

If I thought Colorado would take this deal I would pick up Tim Murray and drive him to Colorado myself to pick O'Reilly up and bring him to Buffalo. While I'm there, who wants brownies?  :flirt:

I think stoned Tim Murray would be kinda funny. 

[WildCard]

I just don't see what he brings to the table that someone like Girgensons can't. I agree RoR is a very solid player, he just isn't unique or exceptional enough for me to try and give the aforementioned up for, and then pay him like he wants to be paid. There will be other options than him, I feel like some may be just so excited to start winning now and with RoR's professed interest in leaving it makes him seem more appealing/a necessity perhaps than he really is. We can trade for other people, or wait until next FA for our youngins to develop and better FA's to come out. 

[North Buffalo]

I am saying one of Risto or Zemgus if not both could be part of a ROR deal.

Don't think he is worth those two D

If I thought Colorado would take this deal I would pick up Tim Murray and drive him to Colorado myself to pick O'Reilly up and bring him to Buffalo. While I'm there, who wants brownies? :flirt:

Still, I have to agree with Sabresmith, now if you said it was for one of the young Edmonton guns I might consider, but O'Reilly while a nice piece is not what the Sabres have spent all this time building D for a third line center and now with up and coming centers in hand, Sabres now need scorers imo. Hoping for one of the draft choices coming thru or sabres need to move up in the draft Edited May 18, 2015 by North Buffalo

[Randall Flagg]

I've supported a ROR trade always but I wouldn't want Risto moved for anything less than a defenseman already playing at or near Risto's ceiling.

[sabresith]

If I thought Colorado would take this deal I would pick up Tim Murray and drive him to Colorado myself to pick O'Reilly up and bring him to Buffalo. While I'm there, who wants brownies?  :flirt:

I want brownies!!!

 

I just don't see what he brings to the table that someone like Girgensons can't. I agree RoR is a very solid player, he just isn't unique or exceptional enough for me to try and give the aforementioned up for, and then pay him like he wants to be paid. There will be other options than him, I feel like some may be just so excited to start winning now and with RoR's professed interest in leaving it makes him seem more appealing/a necessity perhaps than he really is. We can trade for other people, or wait until next FA for our youngins to develop and better FA's to come out.

 

Nailed it! This is about the next ten years, not just next year. Now trading all those players, prospects, and picks for a good not great 2way forward who wants 8mil a year is not a good business plan. We have 2way forwards in large numbers, what we don't have is natural goal scorers besides Kane. RoR what a joke!!!

[freester]

I agree that Colorado will ask for one of them.  That is a far cry from saying that Colorado will require both of them in order to trade with the Sabres.  No one in the NHL will give up that much for him.

 

IMHO, a good comparable for ROR is Chris Drury.  Certainly the Sabres, if they trade for ROR and give him a fat contract (and I agree that it will cost $7MM+ per year to sign him), will hope that ROR becomes another Drury. 

 

To get Drury, the Sabres gave up Rhett Warrener, a no-BS top-4 defenseman, plus Steve Reinprecht, a journeyman forward (the Sabres got back Steve Begin, another journeyman forward, in the deal).  So it was essentially Warrener for Drury. 

 

Risto's ceiling is higher than Warrener's was, but if GMTM is confident about Nikita and the other young defensemen in the system, I could see him biting the bullet and giving up Risto.

 

NB that I completely agree with Dudacek that there is NFW that GMTM gives up Risto or anything of that ilk without an extension in place for ROR.

 

 

I don't agree.  I think if ROR tells Colorado he's not re-signing with them under any circumstances, Colorado will decide to move him this summer, as that is when they will get the best return.

There is NFW that either Risto or Girgensons gets moved for ROR.   some combination of Zadorov, Foligno, Grigorenko and possibly picks and or prospects will do it.  The market for ROR will not be that big due to his high salary demands.