LGR4GM Posted May 18, 2015 Report Posted May 18, 2015 Let's just do this. Everything to do with Ryan freaking O'Reilly. His likes, his dislikes, favorite colors, boxers or briefs, ALL THESE QUESTIONS AND MORE RIGHT HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The only year ROR has broken the 20g plateau was last year. Last year his shot% was .37 above where it normally sits meaning that statistically he isn't a 20+ goal scorer. While his defensive skills are as far as takeaways are impressive, he is averaging 88 a year. So just a touch over 1 per game. His giveaways sit at 30 on average which means he is very sound defensively but at what point do these extra defensive skills become superfluous? How often is 1 takeaway a game making the difference? Judging by the way hockey works probably not as much as we would like. If we look at other stats I can see that he starts just over 50% of the time in the defensive zone and for the last 2 years has faced above average competition. Now looking at his Corsi and Fenqick we can see that mathematically ROR on the ice his team has the puck only 50% of the time so again we are in the middle. Now I can tell you that ROR is contributing positively to the possession numbers. So far we can all agree Defensively ROR is a very good player. Now looking once again at the offense his usage suggests he spends almost no time on the PP. His pp shots and such are very low, 49 total attempted PP for the entire season. Why? Well for one if you watch Ryan O'Reilly his shot is average. He does get the shot through about 62% of the time which is decent. Just to show what I mean and so you have a bench mark for that, Zemgus is at about 61% of shots getting through. So ROR is again doing okay but not great. If we look at his PK stuff, the outlier year for Sh% is also the outlier year for his good PK stuff. This past year his TOI for pk ice time was only 156.9minutes so this again isn't what he was getting used most. Most of his time is 5v5 which is fine. He seems to handle his minutes well and again is right in the middle. Now if you want we could talk about now stats stuff like his on ice vision, stickhandling, hockey IQ. Sadly it must be mentioned somewhat. His on ice vision is above NHL average and he has a decent pass. His stickhandling IMPO is just okay. He is a direct kind of guy. One thing you will notice is ROR makes safe plays. He in some ways is like Samson in that regard although I think in the end Sammy is smarter. His skating stride is good but he is a direct skater and you don't see the array of cuts and slashes you might want for a top 3 forward. That said he is very strong on his skates. He is good down low at digging the puck out. He tends to pass first but I feel like there is a lack of creativity there. I feel like that's enough. It won't prove my point to you and that's fine because we both have decided, but when I look at O'Reilly whether that is during the game or his advanced stats his defensive play if very sound. It is quite good. His offensive play is very lackluster. In truth ROR is like a better defensive version of Pommers but with less offense. If I am going to tie up 8mil, which in todays lack of scoring NHL for a defensive player is questionble, then I have committed that money to someone who at heart is really a nice 2nd line defensive player that will give you 15-20goals a season and around 35a. Toews, Kane, Ovechkin, Malkin, Subban, Crosby, Perry, Lundqvist, Giroux, Staal, Getzlaf, Kessel, }{ Weber, Nash, Suter, Parise, Datsyuk, Spezza, Stamkos. There is your list of players making 7.5mil or more. Kessel and up make 8mil or more. Ryan O'Reilly IMPO doesn't belong in that group because he doesn't bring enough to the table on the offensive side to warrant it. Now you have your answer, well basically, this was superfluous because I am not going to convince you Tank and you aren't going to convince me. I don't think ROR should make more then 7mil and truthfully I would give him 6.5 and not a penny more. Of course I think you are accurate with how much he will ask for and some team will pay it, but that team will be a big market because I honestly believe that is where he wants to go.
LGR4GM Posted May 18, 2015 Author Report Posted May 18, 2015 Good points, well said. I will say this: in your Chicago comparison, are any one of those guys making $8 mil/year? I don't think you define a first line player by their salary, but a player like that should have a salary indicative of his role and impact. I just don't think he's worth that, nor do I think we can afford him. Maybe I missed it, but I'd like to see you two justify spending that much money on him opposed to other FA's, or even our own guys. Hoss did make some points on him earlier, but I thought Liger had a great response, and I'm a greedy bastard who wants more stats. Peruse at your will... His career Corsi and Fenwick are at 49.8 and 49.9 respectively. His FO% is 51.8% career. Enjoy. http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/o/oreilry01-additional.html
WildCard Posted May 18, 2015 Report Posted May 18, 2015 Apologies for any confusion but I didn't mean to connect the salary with how to define a player. I meant that "top 90 forward" doesn't define a first-line player. On justifying paying him over others: what justification do we need? It's not like it's O'Reilly or our guys, or even O'Reilly or other UFAs. We've got money to spend. It's O'Reilly AND others. If we get down to next offseason and it seems like we're deciding between O'Reilly and another player then we can discuss it. I don't see much of a point now because it's not this vs that. But it is just that when you spend that much on him. If you can get him for 4 years or so and have his contract expire when our young guys become FA's, then I don't think it's a bad idea to get him, but I still think you're overpaying. Instead of RoR, we could pursue: 2015 FA's: - Derek Stepan (age: 24, Cap-Hit: $3.075, Status: RFA) - Justin Williams (age: 33, Cap-Hit: $3.650, Status: UFA) - Mike Green (age: 29, Cap-Hit: $6.083, Status: UFA) - Tyler Toffoli(age: 23, Cap-Hit: Entry level, Status: RFA) 2016 FA's - Eric Staal (age: 30, Cap-Hit: $8.250, Status: UFA) - Anze Kopitar( (age: 27, Cap-Hit: $6.800, Status: UFA) - Keith Yandle (age: 28, Cap-Hit: $5.250, Status: UFA) - Ryan Kessler (age: 30, Cap-Hit: $5.000, Status UFA) - Alex Goligoski (age: 29, Cap-Hit: $4.600, Status: UFA) - David Backes (age: 31, Cap-Hit: $4.500, Status: UFA) - Loui Eriksson (age: 29, Cap-Hit: $4.250, Status: UFA) - Jakub Voracek (age: 25, Cap-Hit: $4.250, Status: UFA) I'm sure there's more, but those are the most prominent/realistic ones I could find. I know Staal, Backes, and probably Kopitar may be unlikely to leave, but the point is the 2015 FA class is weak, but those after it aren't. There are many players on this list that are cheaper than RoR without seeing a decline in quality.
LastPommerFan Posted May 18, 2015 Report Posted May 18, 2015 But it is just that when you spend that much on him. If you can get him for 4 years or so and have his contract expire when our young guys become FA's, then I don't think it's a bad idea to get him, but I still think you're overpaying. Instead of RoR, we could pursue: 2015 FA's: - Derek Stepan (age: 24, Cap-Hit: $3.075, Status: RFA) - Justin Williams (age: 33, Cap-Hit: $3.650, Status: UFA) - Mike Green (age: 29, Cap-Hit: $6.083, Status: UFA) - Tyler Toffoli(age: 23, Cap-Hit: Entry level, Status: RFA) 2016 FA's - Eric Staal (age: 30, Cap-Hit: $8.250, Status: UFA) - Anze Kopitar( (age: 27, Cap-Hit: $6.800, Status: UFA) - Keith Yandle (age: 28, Cap-Hit: $5.250, Status: UFA) - Ryan Kessler (age: 30, Cap-Hit: $5.000, Status UFA) - Alex Goligoski (age: 29, Cap-Hit: $4.600, Status: UFA) - David Backes (age: 31, Cap-Hit: $4.500, Status: UFA) - Loui Eriksson (age: 29, Cap-Hit: $4.250, Status: UFA) - Jakub Voracek (age: 25, Cap-Hit: $4.250, Status: UFA) I'm sure there's more, but those are the most prominent/realistic ones I could find. I know Staal, Backes, and probably Kopitar may be unlikely to leave, but the point is the 2015 FA class is weak, but those after it aren't. There are many players on this list that are cheaper than RoR without seeing a decline in quality. the RFA's will all cost you multiple first round picks. No way Kopitar nor voracek make it to market. and the rest of those guys will be on the wrong side of 30 by the time they can lace up for the Sabres (some well into the wrong side)
Hoss Posted May 18, 2015 Report Posted May 18, 2015 (edited) But it is just that when you spend that much on him. If you can get him for 4 years or so and have his contract expire when our young guys become FA's, then I don't think it's a bad idea to get him, but I still think you're overpaying. Instead of RoR, we could pursue: 2015 FA's: - Derek Stepan (age: 24, Cap-Hit: $3.075, Status: RFA) - Justin Williams (age: 33, Cap-Hit: $3.650, Status: UFA) - Mike Green (age: 29, Cap-Hit: $6.083, Status: UFA) - Tyler Toffoli(age: 23, Cap-Hit: Entry level, Status: RFA) 2016 FA's - Eric Staal (age: 30, Cap-Hit: $8.250, Status: UFA) - Anze Kopitar( (age: 27, Cap-Hit: $6.800, Status: UFA) - Keith Yandle (age: 28, Cap-Hit: $5.250, Status: UFA) - Ryan Kessler (age: 30, Cap-Hit: $5.000, Status UFA) - Alex Goligoski (age: 29, Cap-Hit: $4.600, Status: UFA) - David Backes (age: 31, Cap-Hit: $4.500, Status: UFA) - Loui Eriksson (age: 29, Cap-Hit: $4.250, Status: UFA) - Jakub Voracek (age: 25, Cap-Hit: $4.250, Status: UFA) I'm sure there's more, but those are the most prominent/realistic ones I could find. I know Staal, Backes, and probably Kopitar may be unlikely to leave, but the point is the 2015 FA class is weak, but those after it aren't. There are many players on this list that are cheaper than RoR without seeing a decline in quality. Of those guys I would only take Kopitar and Voracek over O'Reilly. So there's that. And we could still sign multiple of those guys if we have O'Reilly at a number as high at $8M. Edited May 18, 2015 by Hoss
WildCard Posted May 18, 2015 Report Posted May 18, 2015 the RFA's will all cost you multiple first round picks. No way Kopitar nor voracek make it to market. and the rest of those guys will be on the wrong side of 30 by the time they can lace up for the Sabres (some well into the wrong side) So we have to limit ourselves to guys under 30? We need some vets anyhow Of those guys I would only take Kopitar and Voracek over O'Reilly. So there's that. And we could still sign multiple of those guys if we have O'Reilly at a number as high at $8M. Really? I would take Staal, Kopitar, Voracek, Backes, and Toffoli over RoR.
LastPommerFan Posted May 18, 2015 Report Posted May 18, 2015 So we have to limit ourselves to guys under 30? We need some vets anyhow Really? I would take Staal, Kopitar, Voracek, Backes, and Toffoli over RoR. I was assuming that the $ was the issue. We don't need anyone over 30 at $8M, IMO. Backes will be 33, Staal 32. And Toffoli will cost you way too much in picks. now, if we're talking trade, that's a different story.
WildCard Posted May 18, 2015 Report Posted May 18, 2015 I was assuming that the $ was the issue. We don't need anyone over 30 at $8M, IMO. Backes will be 33, Staal 32. And Toffoli will cost you way too much in picks. now, if we're talking trade, that's a different story. I agree with that, but I don't think anyone on that list besides Staal commands that money. I don't understand how RFA's work with the picks, could you explain?
Hoss Posted May 18, 2015 Report Posted May 18, 2015 I agree with that, but I don't think anyone on that list besides Staal commands that money. I don't understand how RFA's work with the picks, could you explain? Are you trying to say that Staal will command more than Kopitar? I don't think that's close to true. I would take O'Reilly over Staal and Backes due to age. Next year the Blackhawks will have: -2 players over $10M -5 players between $5M and $6M -2 players between $4M and $5M -Whatever Brenden Saad comes in at Next year the Sabres will have: -0 players over $5.25M (Blackhawks have 7) -3 players between $5M and $5.25M -3 players between $4M and $5M Gorges comes in at $3.9M then Foligno at $1.8M... Risto and Zemgus hit RFA after this season, but it's unlikely that they see big money yet. It will be three years before either Reinhart or Eichel hit RFA.
MBHockey13 Posted May 18, 2015 Report Posted May 18, 2015 Is there going to be a Ryan O'Reilly Superthread in 2021?
LastPommerFan Posted May 18, 2015 Report Posted May 18, 2015 I agree with that, but I don't think anyone on that list besides Staal commands that money. I don't understand how RFA's work with the picks, could you explain? Depending on the value of the offer, the team signing the player owes the team that owned that players rights a certain number of draft picks (bottom of this page has the picks for each $ level: http://www.nhl.com/ice/m_news.htm?id=636658 ). They also MUST be your teams original picks, not picks you traded for. In the range were talking about to successfully pry these guys away, it's at least a first a second and a third.
LGR4GM Posted May 18, 2015 Author Report Posted May 18, 2015 Well we all agree O'Reilly is good defensively we do not have a suitable means of measuring that and comparing to other players. This creates a problem because there is not a way to argue fully how much impact his defensive game has on the season. For instance say O'Reilly's defensive impact factor is a 9. Say someone like Zemgus has a defensive impact factor of 6.5, if we had a number like that we could compare and contrast players and actually determine if ROR's DIF makes him worth 8mil a season.
WildCard Posted May 18, 2015 Report Posted May 18, 2015 Well we all agree O'Reilly is good defensively we do not have a suitable means of measuring that and comparing to other players. This creates a problem because there is not a way to argue fully how much impact his defensive game has on the season. For instance say O'Reilly's defensive impact factor is a 9. Say someone like Zemgus has a defensive impact factor of 6.5, if we had a number like that we could compare and contrast players and actually determine if ROR's DIF makes him worth 8mil a season. Sure we do, Selke trophies. It may not be a stat, but I consider it a fair representation of defensive prowess for forwards. And guess who's never won it? RoR of course. And, the guy who has won it last year. Bergeron, is a better player IMO and making $6.5 mil/year. Are you trying to say that Staal will command more than Kopitar? I don't think that's close to true. I would take O'Reilly over Staal and Backes due to age. Next year the Blackhawks will have: -2 players over $10M -5 players between $5M and $6M -2 players between $4M and $5M -Whatever Brenden Saad comes in at Next year the Sabres will have: -0 players over $5.25M (Blackhawks have 7) -3 players between $5M and $5.25M -3 players between $4M and $5M Gorges comes in at $3.9M then Foligno at $1.8M... Risto and Zemgus hit RFA after this season, but it's unlikely that they see big money yet. It will be three years before either Reinhart or Eichel hit RFA. Didn't think Kopitar would command that much, but you're probably right. As for the Hawks comparison, well done. So what about the money Kane commands? Or Eichel and Reinhart at RFA? RoR isn't going to sign a 3 year deal, so it's likely to be a problem
beerme1 Posted May 18, 2015 Report Posted May 18, 2015 Has anybody asked Babs for his take on the situation?
Hoss Posted May 18, 2015 Report Posted May 18, 2015 (edited) Sure we do, Selke trophies. It may not be a stat, but I consider it a fair representation of defensive prowess for forwards. And guess who's never won it? RoR of course. And, the guy who has won it last year. Bergeron, is a better player IMO and making $6.5 mil/year. Bergeron signed his contract two years ago before the speculation of the major cap growth began, and he also likely gave a bit of a discount. But yes, Bergeron is absolutely a better player. Also, knocking on RoR for not winning the Selke is kind of silly. There are four players in the league that have won it (Bergeron x 2, Toews, Kesler, Datsyuk x 3). According to this post, Adam Foote said O'Reilly is the most defensively responsible forward he's ever played with: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=713692 That was back in 2009. http://www.winnipegsun.com/2014/03/26/ryan-oreilly-and-the-pursuit-of-unlikely-perfection That's a good breakdown of one of my favorite stats. O'Reilly led the league in takeaways while only having one penalty that season (the penalty was for carrying a broken stick). O'Reilly led the Avs in ice team this year and last. On a team with a talented group of forwards that in itself is impressive. Edited May 18, 2015 by Hoss
WildCard Posted May 18, 2015 Report Posted May 18, 2015 Bergeron signed his contract two years ago before the speculation of the major cap growth began, and he also likely gave a bit of a discount. But yes, Bergeron is absolutely a better player. Also, knocking on RoR for not winning the Selke is kind of silly. There are four players in the league that have won it (Bergeron x 2, Toews, Kesler, Datsyuk x 3). He wasn't even nominated.
Hoss Posted May 18, 2015 Report Posted May 18, 2015 He wasn't even nominated. Toews, Bergeron and Kopitar have been the three nominees the last two seasons. Bergeron, Toews and Datsyuk the year before. Bergeron, Datsyuk and Backes the two years before that. There's a lot of great defensive players not listed there.
WildCard Posted May 18, 2015 Report Posted May 18, 2015 (edited) Toews, Bergeron and Kopitar have been the three nominees the last two seasons. Bergeron, Toews and Datsyuk the year before. Bergeron, Datsyuk and Backes the two years before that. There's a lot of great defensive players not listed there. $8 mil/year isn't a great player, it's an exceptional one. He hangs his hat on being exceptional defensively, as his offensive abilities clearly aren't what's going to make him special. How can he be so great defensively, and lead the league (or close to it) in these aforementioned categories, and not even get mentioned? Edited May 18, 2015 by WildCard
Hoss Posted May 18, 2015 Report Posted May 18, 2015 (edited) $8 mil/year isn't a great player, it's an exceptional one. He hangs his hat on being exceptional defensively, as his offensive abilities clearly aren't what's going to make him special. How can he be so great defensively, and lead the league (or close to it) in these aforementioned categories, and not even get mentioned? I don't know. I don't have a vote. This is fun. As long as nobody threatens to quit the conversation then let's keep it going. :p Edited May 18, 2015 by Hoss
WildCard Posted May 18, 2015 Report Posted May 18, 2015 (edited) I don't know. I don't have a vote. This is fun. As long as nobody threatens to quit the conversation then let's keep it going. :P Definitely, good hockey conversation is hard to come by anywhere else but on here. :beer: I'll say the Adam Foote praise is a plus. As for his TOI, I don't know where you'd find this but I'd be interested in knowing time leading vs. time trailing for the Avalanche. We made a whole thread for this, there are 44 members online right now, I'd be interested in hearing everyone else's opinions on this as well. Edited May 18, 2015 by WildCard
Randall Flagg Posted May 18, 2015 Report Posted May 18, 2015 ROR is a beast and he's got that sexy hockey smile. I think 8 mil is the new 6 mil, but I would hope it would only cost us 7-7.5. I hope like hell we get him.
TrueBlueGED Posted May 18, 2015 Report Posted May 18, 2015 Sure we do, Selke trophies. It may not be a stat, but I consider it a fair representation of defensive prowess for forwards. And guess who's never won it? RoR of course. And, the guy who has won it last year. Bergeron, is a better player IMO and making $6.5 mil/year. Bergeron was 27 when he won his first Selke. O'Reilly is currently 23.
Derrico Posted May 18, 2015 Report Posted May 18, 2015 My real estate appraisal career has me immediately looking at comparables to look at ROR worth (as liger first wanted) and therefore I looked to the most recent data. I looked at the 2014 July 1st signing period as that is like the real estate spring (hot) market. The only somewhat big name to sign was Paul stastny who signed a 4 year deal worth 7 million per year. Well as in any year (aside from 2008 to 2010) the market, and cost of doing business goes up every year. So in my eyes, the best comparable is the most recent which is stastny who is also a centre and also played on Colorado prior to the signing. Stastny was 28 at the time of the signing, ROR is currently 24. Stastny was taken 44th overall in 2005, ROR was taken 33rd in 2009. They're both 6 feet tall. ROR plays a much stronger defensive game, stastny has slightly better point totals (although both have only had one season with more than 25 goals). Like your house, you look at what your neighbour got and expect more for yours two years later. Comparable player salaries from more than two years prior are almost irrelevant, especially considering the trend in nhl player salaries. If stastny got 7 in 2014, ROR is at least worth 7.5 to 8 beginning in 2016. I agree that we have to manage the cap to ensure money is available for our stars when the time comes to pay them. However, in a salary cap era, I think it's also prudent to bring in some high cost talented players to really go for it while your stars are making reasonable salaries on entry level deals. Once Eichel starts make 10 plus mil per season it's hard to afford talent around him. Let's bring in big talent now while we can afford it.
TrueBlueGED Posted May 18, 2015 Report Posted May 18, 2015 $8 mil/year isn't a great player, it's an exceptional one. He hangs his hat on being exceptional defensively, as his offensive abilities clearly aren't what's going to make him special. How can he be so great defensively, and lead the league (or close to it) in these aforementioned categories, and not even get mentioned? ROR is a beast and he's got that sexy hockey smile. I think 8 mil is the new 6 mil, but I would hope it would only cost us 7-7.5. I hope like hell we get him. Yes. Wildcard, with respect, I think your perception of what players signing new contracts make is a little skewed. Paul Stastny as a UFA just signed a contract worth $7 million per year. He's a really good player. Is he exceptional? I don't think so, and I also think O'Reilly is better. Toews and Kane are unquestionably better than O'Reilly...but he's not going to get the kind of money they are, which is $10.5 million annually. If we can accept that O'Reilly is better than Stastny but closer to him than he is to Toews, then $8 million simply is not unreasonable when signing a contract two years later.
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