Derby 2015---calling GoDD

[plenzmd1]

So just got a few minutes in fro t of TV. So is it good or bad the TVG guys love your 6 and 7 GoDD?

 

Btw, threw the 9 in there as well for the exotics.

Edited May 16, 2015 by plenzmd1

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

So just got a few minutes in fro t of TV. So is it good or bad the TVG guys love your 6 and 7 GoDD?

 

Btw, threw the 9 in there as well for the exotics.

I did the exact same thing with the 9. 19-1 was too juicy.

 

The 6 had me excited for a bit. I got lucky and had the 5 in the sprint the race before and a crazy $70+ double probable.

 

Firing Line is 5-2 now. Baffert getting shut out on the weekend I think. He's 3-1 in the 7th. Going with Pletcher's #3 as a sneaky Belmont prep.

Aaaand...baffert off the schnide

[plenzmd1]

Back in house. Glad I missed the 8th LOL.

 

The guys on TVG too funny bitching bout an ice cream stuck in back of them. Same song relating for 53 minutes.

 

So heavy on the 11, like the 9 as well as I justice Motion horses on turf in MD. Also threw the 6 in as Prado knows that turf course as well as he knows he any track.

 

Tempted to throw 1 in there with Julien on board, but think of that as more of a NY bias.

 

Oh well, the favorite ran a great race, the 11 ran great as well just up against it there. Had a few sheckles in the show pool.

Edited May 16, 2015 by plenzmd1

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

Back in house. Glad I missed the 8th LOL.

 

The guys on TVG too funny bitching bout an ice cream stuck in back of them. Same song relating for 53 minutes.

 

So heavy on the 11, like the 9 as well as I justice Motion horses on turf in MD. Also threw the 6 in as Prado knows that turf course as well as he knows he any track.

 

Tempted to throw 1 in there with Julien on board, but think of that as more of a NY bias.

 

Oh well, the favorite ran a great race, the 11 ran great as well just up against it there. Had a few sheckles in the show pool.

She got stuck, but probably was 3rd anyway.

 

If Darcy Regier is reading the board today, he is up $3.70 on my picks with his $2 to show each race.

 

If Tim Murray is reading, he's out $200 keying my picks in exotics!

[plenzmd1]

She got stuck, but probably was 3rd anyway.

 

If Darcy Regier is reading the board today, he is up $3.70 on my picks with his $2 to show each race.

 

If Tim Murray is reading, he's out $200 keying my picks in exotics!

That's too funny! Let's just say I not up $3.40. That's alright get the back yard cut and some trimming done before the 11th. That's when the beers come out.

 

Thought the 9 was in good shape when Rodman said 47 and 3, and yep no one beating the 8 today.

[plenzmd1]

Like the odds on the 3, $10 across.

 

So like the 5 just cause of the Cozzene connection. Hate the odds, playing hard anyway. Keying boxing the 5 with 3,4,6,9 in exact as and tris

 

Btw, could not pay me enough to be in that infield. And not just cause I old. Went to one and only Preakness in 89, hated in then too!

Edited May 16, 2015 by plenzmd1

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

Just boxed 3-10

 

I'm doomed.

[plenzmd1]

Damn. Friggen 2. Sets a course record, what'tya gunna do?

 

Had the 4 behind him LOL.

 

Off to the beer store, come back and watch the Preakness. Down to my last $36 from the derby day.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

I'm doomed!!!

 

Shaman Ghost just became the favorite for the Queen's Plate at 13-1.

 

If he goes to Fort Erie for the Prince of Wales, I'll get a selfie with him.....

[plenzmd1]

Ghost....who like the mud? That chit coming down hard. BTW, I gotta bet the the winner of the frederico teaseo.

 

I am thinking Parhoah would be fine...if that track still had same bias as past years...speed on the lead in mud was almost impossible to overcome

Boys got me to put a bunch on 3 last second

 

That horse is the best I have seen in 20 years. What a perfect race.

Edited May 16, 2015 by plenzmd1

[Hoss]

Okay I'll be interested in the last race now that there's actually a chance at something interesting. But animal sports should all end.

[LastPommerFan]

Okay I'll be interested in the last race now that there's actually a chance at something interesting. But animal sports should all end.

 

Then what the hell would we do between the parade and football on Thanksgiving?

[Hoss]

Then what the hell would we do between the parade and football on Thanksgiving?

I don't know. Heroin. Something else.

[LastPommerFan]

I don't know. Heroin. Something else.

 

Sounds good, as long as there are options I'm ok with it.

[TrueBlueGED]

Looks like I'll be watching the Belmont. Horse racing isn't my thing, but I would like to see a triple crown winner in my lifetime.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

Ghost....who like the mud? That chit coming down hard. BTW, I gotta bet the the winner of the frederico teaseo.

 

I am thinking Parhoah would be fine...if that track still had same bias as past years...speed on the lead in mud was almost impossible to overcome

Boys got me to put a bunch on 3 last second

 

That horse is the best I have seen in 20 years. What a perfect race.

That was nuts....almost 90 degrees, then hail at the call to the post.

 

You are right....you want to be up front near the rail or out 5-6 during a normal slop in my opinion. Pharoah is a small guy with cuppy feet which is perfect. A guy like Dortmund gets punished as he sinks more. Firing Line stumbles out of the gate, runs into the 7, never ran in it....yeah...toast.

 

Pharoah is a very neat horse, but he is perfect for the slop. I would be happy if he won. The Zayats are truly passionate about their horses. I'm sure I will try to beat him, but it would be cool if he won.

[MattPie]

That was nuts....almost 90 degrees, then hail at the call to the post.

 

You are right....you want to be up front near the rail or out 5-6 during a normal slop in my opinion. Pharoah is a small guy with cuppy feet which is perfect. A guy like Dortmund gets punished as he sinks more. Firing Line stumbles out of the gate, runs into the 7, never ran in it....yeah...toast.

 

Pharoah is a very neat horse, but he is perfect for the slop. I would be happy if he won. The Zayats are truly passionate about their horses. I'm sure I will try to beat him, but it would be cool if he won.

 

How does someone know the cuppy feet part? You seem to be "in the know" so is there place that lists stats (horsestats.com, etc.) or is it message board chatter? Or I suppose you might have direct knowledge of the horses too. :)

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

How does someone know the cuppy feet part? You seem to be "in the know" so is there place that lists stats (horsestats.com, etc.) or is it message board chatter? Or I suppose you might have direct knowledge of the horses too. :)

 

It's the way they are built. American Pharoah is not your typical build for a triple crown horse. He's not a big, rangey horse that looks like he wants to go two turns. If you just saw him out in the field, he looks like a 7 furlong horse or a mile type...and not an over muscled type at that. What makes him so good is his efficiency in stride. He runs straight with little wasted motion, which in turn leads to a bigger stride length than he should get for his size, less of a chance to get even minor injuries, and the ability to go longer, which in turn helps not getting injured. The fastest horses are usually the easiest to get hurt. He's running 47-48 second half miles....top sprinters are going 44-45 seconds. Feet are very important though. When Big Brown went for the Triple Crown, I didn't think he would make the Derby let alone have a shot near the end. He was a mess and they were literally just praying to get him to the Derby.

 

When you get a buld and a fairly light horse like AP, a lot of times they have small feet. This is good for a dirt horse, and especially in the slop a lot of times. Think of it in a physics way....pounds per square inch cutting through the surface. You can cause someone more pain by pushing into them with one finger than you can by using your whole hand. A lot of horses do better on turf because they a bigger, rangier, and a lot of the best ones have a big, flat foot. Turf is more about propelling over the surface than digging in and pushing through the dirt or slop. A small, cuppy foot in a sense helps a horse to glide over the slop when many will sink.

 

American Pharoah was the best horse for sure, but the ease he did it with and the visual impressiveness had a lot to do with the slop. Even his owners will be the first to admit it. Doesn't take anything away for him as even now I'm a fan.

[MattPie]

It's the way they are built. American Pharoah is not your typical build for a triple crown horse. He's not a big, rangey horse that looks like he wants to go two turns. If you just saw him out in the field, he looks like a 7 furlong horse or a mile type...and not an over muscled type at that. What makes him so good is his efficiency in stride. He runs straight with little wasted motion, which in turn leads to a bigger stride length than he should get for his size, less of a chance to get even minor injuries, and the ability to go longer, which in turn helps not getting injured. The fastest horses are usually the easiest to get hurt. He's running 47-48 second half miles....top sprinters are going 44-45 seconds. Feet are very important though. When Big Brown went for the Triple Crown, I didn't think he would make the Derby let alone have a shot near the end. He was a mess and they were literally just praying to get him to the Derby.

 

When you get a buld and a fairly light horse like AP, a lot of times they have small feet. This is good for a dirt horse, and especially in the slop a lot of times. Think of it in a physics way....pounds per square inch cutting through the surface. You can cause someone more pain by pushing into them with one finger than you can by using your whole hand. A lot of horses do better on turf because they a bigger, rangier, and a lot of the best ones have a big, flat foot. Turf is more about propelling over the surface than digging in and pushing through the dirt or slop. A small, cuppy foot in a sense helps a horse to glide over the slop when many will sink.

 

American Pharoah was the best horse for sure, but the ease he did it with and the visual impressiveness had a lot to do with the slop. Even his owners will be the first to admit it. Doesn't take anything away for him as even now I'm a fan.

 

Thanks for the write-up!

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

Thanks for the write-up!

 

No problem.

 

If you are looking for stats, there is a number called the Tomlinson Number that predicts wet track performance off of pedigree. They show it in The Racing Form for each horse. The higher the better.

 

A lot of times you just have to use your eyes and experience....which is what makes the betting game go round. Plnz likes my turf picks and I am much better at turf and 2 yo picks because when you look at the big picture, a horse will stand out to the eyes for that specific race as opposed to their history or what is expected by the public. A lot of handicappers look at just numbers and speed, or watch video to see if a horse got into trouble and would have a better chance next time.....but that's a lot of hard work and usually gets built into the odds because it is a common route to go. I used to be all about numbers until I got into the game at a personal level. The more you hang around the actual athletes, and learn their mannerisms and who likes what and why.....and when they are feeling good and how that shows in their ears, eyes, coat, gait, etc.....I am more about the horse and pedigree than the numbers now. I think that is why I am tough on the hockey analytics guys......even if the numbers actually work, there is no value in them because everyone is looking at the same possible advantage.

[Neo]

Request, not an assignment.

 

I've read GoDD's race posts for years. I've always enjoyed them. I'd appreciate his thoughts or impressions.

 

Every year I watch a YouTube video of Secretariat's Belmont. I can't think of a more amazing sporting accomplishment. The humanity, horse notwithstanding. It moves me. I tear up. "He is moving like a tremendous machine" and "he's all alone", the latter a statement, but intoned as a bewildered question.

 

Categorically, the race occupies a space in my memory alone except for the Miracle on Ice. In that space, it has top billing.

 

For those of you who haven't watched, allow me ...

 

Edited May 19, 2015 by Neo

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

That is special, and as famous a call as the Miracle on Ice in my opinion.

 

That's the thing too when you look at at Triple Crown threats after that. If American Pharoah were to win the Belmont, he would deserve to be called the best of his generation and it would be an amazing feat. But you look at Secretariat....he was a true freak of nature. He was a handsome and pretty horse. His heart was actually confirmed to be almost twice the size you would expect, and he inspired a whole group of people to chase down heart and oxygen function on horses going forward. The "moving like a tremendous machine".....when you watch him run away from Sham heading towards the final turn, if you notice, Sham is actually moving his legs faster....maybe even 15 strides for every 10 of Secretariat.....but Secretariat is reaching, and his back legs are getting all the way to the front of his body as he pushes, and he is relaxed.....it really is a dream horse.

 

I am a firm believer that the best horses are freaks of nature, and you always have to keep your eyes open. Secretariat was a horrible daddy of boys, but he did have a lot of girls that went on to be good mamas. The gene pool really is female driven with horses...and that's about the only infuence Secretariat had on the future.

 

To watch that race though, and look at pictures or video of him in the field even as he was older.....he was just a blessing of a freak. I've been around one horse like that and I think I learned 99% about life from the experience. That's why people are willing to wake up at 4am every day....or spend more money than is wise....because everyone knows it's possible. You get just a taste of it and it is the greatest high in the world. You don't need millions or billions. It helps, but you are reduced to being a 5 year old kid on Christmas Eve anyway. They call it the "Great Equalizer". It truly is. Money, faith, gender, age....doesn't matter......that's why the game is so great.

[LastPommerFan]

That is special, and as famous a call as the Miracle on Ice in my opinion.

 

That's the thing too when you look at at Triple Crown threats after that. If American Pharoah were to win the Belmont, he would deserve to be called the best of his generation and it would be an amazing feat. But you look at Secretariat....he was a true freak of nature. He was a handsome and pretty horse. His heart was actually confirmed to be almost twice the size you would expect, and he inspired a whole group of people to chase down heart and oxygen function on horses going forward. The "moving like a tremendous machine".....when you watch him run away from Sham heading towards the final turn, if you notice, Sham is actually moving his legs faster....maybe even 15 strides for every 10 of Secretariat.....but Secretariat is reaching, and his back legs are getting all the way to the front of his body as he pushes, and he is relaxed.....it really is a dream horse.

 

I am a firm believer that the best horses are freaks of nature, and you always have to keep your eyes open. Secretariat was a horrible daddy of boys, but he did have a lot of girls that went on to be good mamas. The gene pool really is female driven with horses...and that's about the only infuence Secretariat had on the future.

 

To watch that race though, and look at pictures or video of him in the field even as he was older.....he was just a blessing of a freak. I've been around one horse like that and I think I learned 99% about life from the experience. That's why people are willing to wake up at 4am every day....or spend more money than is wise....because everyone knows it's possible. You get just a taste of it and it is the greatest high in the world. You don't need millions or billions. It helps, but you are reduced to being a 5 year old kid on Christmas Eve anyway. They call it the "Great Equalizer". It truly is. Money, faith, gender, age....doesn't matter......that's why the game is so great.

 

My understanding is that the heart condition that Secretariat had is carried in the Dam line, so it makes sense that his fillies went on to be more valuable than his colts.

[Neo]

Grateful ...

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

My understanding is that the heart condition that Secretariat had is carried in the Dam line, so it makes sense that his fillies went on to be more valuable than his colts.

 

His daddy is one of the top handful of influences on the breed. Bold Ruler does a lot through the female scope too. A key aspect to breeding is lining up similar family traits. It can be bad....like in dog breeding where you get inbred puppies and more health issues. You get that in horses too. Bold Ruler however is one of the prefered exceptions. If I see a horse that has Bold Ruler 3x3 or 5x5 (don't ask me why the odd years seem to work better), I feel good about it. So sadly, it would be like having 2 cousins mating....but for some reason, it works out well for Bold Ruler's family.

Grateful ...

 

I'm pulling up other video and bawling.

 

Japan has a setup where they let 100 people own a tiny bit of a horse. I truly think for the sport to fly again here, there needs to be someone to step up and let that happen. It's a pain in the butt to think about dealing with everyone, but just look how cooky Sabres season ticket holders are. If you feel you have a vested interest in something, no matter how small, you do irrational things. Imagine how giddy those ticket holders would be if they could make money by going to the games? The problem is, the coach and players don't benefit by having 16,000 at practice every day, and I'm sure Tim Murray doesn't want to take 16,000 phone calls. To me though, anyone that meets the horses and gets to understand them is a vested fan.