sabresith Posted May 3, 2015 Report Posted May 3, 2015 If the biggest hole we can find in his game, is face offs. Then I think we are in pretty good shape. Quote
K-9 Posted May 3, 2015 Report Posted May 3, 2015 Ennis with a goal and assist today. Oh, and if you had Germany plus 9 goals ... YOU LOSE! Quote
tom webster Posted May 3, 2015 Report Posted May 3, 2015 This is a pretty weak argument. Of course this is the case, but how does that change the fact that the faceoffs in a tie or one-goal game late is important? Faceoffs are huge. I want my star center to know how to win them in key situations. There's more than a handful of games a year where a team got a point or more because of their ability to win a draw clean late in the game. I'm not saying Eichel's struggles at the dot are a big deal right now because they're not. He'll learn as he grows. But it's an important skill. The analytics argument against face offs and goaltending is, I believe, their biggest weakness. They dismiss both because of the small mathematical variation from top to bottom. I would argue that paying attention to detail and finding those small variations can be the difference between winning and losing especially in a sport where variation is so small and randomness plays such a big role. That said, I understand the argument even though I disagree with the interpretation of the significance of the variation. Quote
X. Benedict Posted May 3, 2015 Report Posted May 3, 2015 Yup, you need to win the majority of battles...and you can do that without winning the majority of faceoffs. Faceoffs are no more important than any other battle that takes place during a game, yet they're tracked and put on a pedestal. I find this baffling. I strongly disagree. Winning a face-off opportunity is often much more important than most one-one battles. Why? Most one-on-one battles are not scoring opportunities. Win a draw cleanly in the offensive zone, the coaching manual says, is a scoring opportunity. All your skaters are already onside, you've all-ready won the zone. you already have a chance to find on open lane, it should result in a shot. This dynamic is amplified on special teams. Win the draw in the defensive zone and you've thwarted an a scoring opportunity. Most one-on-one hockey battles do not result in a shot as they are away from the puck. Faceoffs in the end zones are much more important because that's where possession results in the highest percentage shots. Quote
SwampD Posted May 3, 2015 Report Posted May 3, 2015 I find this baffling. I strongly disagree. Winning a face-off opportunity is often much more important than most one-one battles. Why? Most one-on-one battles are not scoring opportunities. Win a draw cleanly in the offensive zone, the coaching manual says, is a scoring opportunity. All your skaters are already onside, you've all-ready won the zone. you already have a chance to find on open lane, it should result in a shot. This dynamic is amplified on special teams. Win the draw in the defensive zone and you've thwarted an a scoring opportunity. Most one-on-one hockey battles do not result in a shot as they are away from the puck. Faceoffs in the end zones are much more important because that's where possession results in the highest percentage shots. But, but, but,... #fancystats. :devil: Quote
TrueBlueGED Posted May 3, 2015 Report Posted May 3, 2015 I find this baffling. I strongly disagree. Winning a face-off opportunity is often much more important than most one-one battles. Why? Most one-on-one battles are not scoring opportunities. Win a draw cleanly in the offensive zone, the coaching manual says, is a scoring opportunity. All your skaters are already onside, you've all-ready won the zone. you already have a chance to find on open lane, it should result in a shot. This dynamic is amplified on special teams. Win the draw in the defensive zone and you've thwarted an a scoring opportunity. Most one-on-one hockey battles do not result in a shot as they are away from the puck. Faceoffs in the end zones are much more important because that's where possession results in the highest percentage shots. The vast majority of faceoff wins/losses don't result in anything. People focus disproportionately on the times they do. Quote
tom webster Posted May 3, 2015 Report Posted May 3, 2015 The vast majority of faceoff wins/losses don't result in anything. People focus disproportionately on the times they do. See, but that's my point. They don't result in enough possession numbers to satisfy the analytic crowd but in a sport where goals are at a premium and season's can be defined by a goal here or a goal there, to dismiss them because the variance isn't high enough or possession numbers that occur fifteen seconds after faceoffs don't fluctuate enough seems to fly in the face of common sense. I have said publicly and privately that I need to learn more about these new numbers to truly be able to argue for or against but I have spent my whole life believing in numbers and not understanding how most people didn't understand what was so obvious to me. Now a lot of these same people that couldn't comprehend salary caps and spread sheets are quoting regression to the mean and statistical relevance. Forgive me if I am a little leary. Quote
Brawndo Posted May 3, 2015 Author Report Posted May 3, 2015 Regarding Faceoffs, Eichel was around 30% in November and had improved to above 50% by the Frozen Four. I expect the same numbers from Eichel next year except it would not surprise me if he maxes out at 45 come April. PLF was not allowed to take a defensive zone faceoff his rookie year and it would not surprise me, if the new HC puts similar restrictions on Eichel next season Quote
TrueBlueGED Posted May 3, 2015 Report Posted May 3, 2015 See, but that's my point. They don't result in enough possession numbers to satisfy the analytic crowd but in a sport where goals are at a premium and season's can be defined by a goal here or a goal there, to dismiss them because the variance isn't high enough or possession numbers that occur fifteen seconds after faceoffs don't fluctuate enough seems to fly in the face of common sense. I have said publicly and privately that I need to learn more about these new numbers to truly be able to argue for or against but I have spent my whole life believing in numbers and not understanding how most people didn't understand what was so obvious to me. Now a lot of these same people that couldn't comprehend salary caps and spread sheets are quoting regression to the mean and statistical relevance. Forgive me if I am a little leary. It's not that I think faceoffs are completely meaningless, it's just they're so far down the list of importance I can never see faceoff capability actually being a tiebreaker when comparing two players. If player A is identical to player B outside of faceoffs, sure, take whichever wins more draws. But is there anyone who would forego the better hockey player to get the better faceoff guy? I'd guess no. Offensive ability, special teams utility, and defensive responsibility are all things I'd rate much more important than faceoffs. Even if you're talking a major difference in faceoff ability (say 55% vs 45%), that probably translates to what, 1-2 faceoff wins per game? I just can't see very many situations where that is the determining factor between what player you'd rather add. Bottom line is nobody is going to care if Eichel is a career 50% at the dot if he's putting up 75-80 points every year. Well not nobody, there's always going to be that guy who says "why isn't our elite center as good as Bergeron at faceoffs!" but you know what I'm saying. Quote
bunomatic Posted May 3, 2015 Report Posted May 3, 2015 I would probably list a faceoff win under defensive responsibility, Offensive abilility and special teams utility. You gain control of the puck for your team and put the other team on the defensive rather than having your team chasing. Your team has possession and that puts the other team in a position of potentially taking a penalty while trying to regain control of the puck. I understand the other side of the debate as well but Find it hard to downplay a faceoffs importance in relation to all the other aspects listed. Quote
X. Benedict Posted May 3, 2015 Report Posted May 3, 2015 I just think anything that happens inside 25' of the net is very important. Faceoffs pretty much dictate what personnel goes on the ice. Eichel will get it. Reinhart will get it. I'm not expecting them to be great at it right away. There are guys in the NHL that make a living from this one thing. It is important. Quote
TrueBlueGED Posted May 3, 2015 Report Posted May 3, 2015 I just think anything that happens inside 25' of the net is very important. Faceoffs pretty much dictate what personnel goes on the ice. Eichel will get it. Reinhart will get it. I'm not expecting them to be great at it right away. There are guys in the NHL that make a living from this one thing. It is important. Yea, and there's guys who make a living to engage in staged fights too :p Quote
drnkirishone Posted May 4, 2015 Report Posted May 4, 2015 faceoffs count more compared to other 1 on 1 battles because the play is a certainty to happen and you have some control over the 1 on 1 battle. It is not like a board scrum where you need certain things to happen during play to bring about this battle. all you need is a stoppage of play. Get a stoppage of play and you earn a chance to get puck possession and just to help your team out we will let you pick who will do this battle. Quote
Andrew Amerk Posted May 4, 2015 Report Posted May 4, 2015 faceoffs count more compared to other 1 on 1 battles because the play is a certainty to happen and you have some control over the 1 on 1 battle. It is not like a board scrum where you need certain things to happen during play to bring about this battle. all you need is a stoppage of play. Get a stoppage of play and you earn a chance to get puck possession and just to help your team out we will let you pick who will do this battle. BOOM! Quote
TrueBlueGED Posted May 4, 2015 Report Posted May 4, 2015 faceoffs count more compared to other 1 on 1 battles because the play is a certainty to happen and you have some control over the 1 on 1 battle. It is not like a board scrum where you need certain things to happen during play to bring about this battle. all you need is a stoppage of play. Get a stoppage of play and you earn a chance to get puck possession and just to help your team out we will let you pick who will do this battle. For as "guaranteed" as they are, I'd bet the number of faceoffs in a game is a fraction of the number of board scrums. It's really hard to argue that faceoffs are more important because they don't rely on another event...then go on to say they rely on another event. BOOM! Minus the fact that the argument has a significant logical flaw, sure. Quote
LGR4GM Posted May 4, 2015 Report Posted May 4, 2015 I just think anything that happens inside 25' of the net is very important. Faceoffs pretty much dictate what personnel goes on the ice. Eichel will get it. Reinhart will get it. I'm not expecting them to be great at it right away. There are guys in the NHL that make a living from this one thing. It is important. Are you saying that Reinhart and Eichel will be fine? All kidding aside if the biggest flaw in Eichel's game is faceoffs... I can't care less. Put Grigorenko on his wing and just let Grigorenko take draws until Jack gets better. Problem solved. Quote
LGR4GM Posted May 4, 2015 Report Posted May 4, 2015 USA v. Russia today at 10:15am est today. Let's see what Captain America does with the Russians. Quote
Brawndo Posted May 4, 2015 Author Report Posted May 4, 2015 Eichel with back to back Faceoffs wins versus Malkin Quote
TrueBlueGED Posted May 4, 2015 Report Posted May 4, 2015 Eichel with back to back Faceoffs wins versus Malkin Well that settles it, Eichel > Malkin :nana: WOW Eichel just blew by the Russian defender. That was awesome. Quote
LGR4GM Posted May 4, 2015 Report Posted May 4, 2015 Well that settles it, Eichel > Malkin :nana: WOW Eichel just blew by the Russian defender. That was awesome. I like how the defender leaned on him right at the end and Jack was unfazed Quote
WildCard Posted May 4, 2015 Report Posted May 4, 2015 So, how about that faceoff win by Eichel for the goal? Quote
LGR4GM Posted May 4, 2015 Report Posted May 4, 2015 Well Eichel was on the ice for that and he won the faceoff... so woooooooo!!!! Quote
Brawndo Posted May 4, 2015 Author Report Posted May 4, 2015 Eichel with a faceoff win that turned into an assist 4 seconds later Well that settles it, Eichel > Malkin :nana: WOW Eichel just blew by the Russian defender. That was awesome. Well Malkin is Russian so he is a lazy bust, amirite? Quote
X. Benedict Posted May 4, 2015 Report Posted May 4, 2015 Eichel with a faceoff win that turned into an assist 4 seconds later Well Malkin is Russian so he is a lazy bust, amirite? Doesn't sound important. :) Quote
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