2016 NHL Draft

[Crusader1969]

Just bought the Hockey News Draft Guide. Had Mascherin down at 72 overall but that's not to say that they are right.

 

I know there is one draft publication that had him either go late first or early second round - just can't remember who it was.

 

 

My fav for 2nd round Jorday Kyrou was 61st.

 

"A highly mobile transitional two-way playmaker that always looks poised and reads the game well. A strong skater that moves with a natural ease and accelerates with purpose and drive. Defensively looks to block passing lanes and battle for puck possession. Transitions to offence tremendously well and is very dangerous with the puck. Displays excellent puck control and has a quick release on his shot. His forte is his ability to make plays, as his creativity and hockey sense seem to take over on the attack. All-in-all, a hard-working two-way player that can be relied upon in all situations to make a positive difference."

[3putt]

Mascherin has a big head, helmet barely fits. He's a keeper.

[LGR4GM]

I just did a quick look back all the way to the 2011 draft to see roughly how many points the top 5 defenders take had in juniors, Chychrun and Sergachev are near the top of that list. Granted I ignored guys like Rasmus who didn't play in Canadian juniors but still very interesting. 

[LGR4GM]

Gonna work on ppg numbers of top 5 Canadian junior players drafted by position this afternoon. I think we are under rating this year's defense group

[WildCard]

His biggest knock is that he that he doesn't always go full force.  It would be a major concern for me as a GM.

So Zadorov, Grigorenko, etc.? Doesn't sound like anyone I want to spend a high draft pick on

 

Juolevi it is

[LTS]

So one of the things I do when I read draft profiles and I watch videos for guys who might be later picks is I want to see production and hear that they work hard. It is why I favored players such as Brock Boeser (I'll never let go Brock, I'll never let go) and Adrian Kempe.  Usually I will find one or two players that will slot into either the late 1st or 2nd round. This year I think I have my guy. While I was tempted to favor a defender with our 2nd round pick I think I favor this kid. Adam Mascherin who had 35g, 46a in 65 games this year for Kitchener. His gpg is at 0.54 and his ppg hits at 1.25ppg.  This (Rakish might even have the numbers on this) should grade out to a good 2nd line winger. He has excellent skating and while he is only 5'10" (solidly 5'10" not just barely with skates on) he weighs in at 205lbs.  He is on my wishlist for that 38th overall pick. He is probably going to be 3 years from NHL action but something tells me it would be worth the wait. 

 

 

 

I recommend the 1:45 mark of the video to see how he shoots

 

 

This Brock Boeser?  (not sure if it was posted elsewhere on the board)

 

http://www.grandforksherald.com/news/region/4029298-it-was-amazing-says-prom-date-und-hockey-player-brock-boeser

[LGR4GM]

This Brock Boeser?  (not sure if it was posted elsewhere on the board)

 

http://www.grandforksherald.com/news/region/4029298-it-was-amazing-says-prom-date-und-hockey-player-brock-boeser

That's the one. I will always miss him. 

[WildCard]

@SabresProspects

Keep an eye on DU forward Dylan Gambrell tonight. 19-year-old winger, second-day draft prospect. 40GP 17-30-47 as part of Pacific Rim Line

 

Gambrell finished his freshman season at the University of Denver about as well as anyone could. After tallying 47 points in 41 games in the regular season, Gambrell earned All-Tournament Honors at the NCAAWest Regional by scoring 5 points which helped Denver knock off Boston University and Ferris State. The Pioneers lost in the Frozen Four to eventual champion North Dakota.

What’s impressive about Gambrell is how quickly he moved up the depth chart as a freshman. He found himself as the Pioneers top-line center very early in the season. He played on the line known commonly as “the Pacific Rim” line with Danton Heinen and Trevor Moore.

 

 

Gambrell made a massive jump up the Central Scouting rankings from 149th at midterm to 67th now. I think he’s better than that given his skill and work ethic. He’s a mid-late third rounder with good upside.

 

http://thehockeywriters.com/5-sleepers-for-the-2016-nhl-draft/

 

Gambrell made a massive jump up the Central Scouting rankings from 149th at midterm to 67th now. I think he’s better than that given his skill and work ethic. He’s a mid-late third rounder with good upside.

[LGR4GM]

After much discussion about what we should be thinking about the defenders in this draft I decided to take a look at something very specific. I went back to 2009 and I found the top 5 defenders drafted in each draft from a Canadian Juniors league. This means that players like Rasmus Ristolainen and Hampus Lindholm were excluded. I then calculated their PPG (points per game) to get a feel for how much you want a defender scoring in their draft year. I excluded the 2015 draft because I don't think enough time has passed.  Also I noted which junior league the player come from. If I did anything else or there was anything else noteworthy in that draft year I made a note of it.

 

Top 5 Drafted Defenders

2009 (A bunch of non Canadian Juniors went in this draft like Hedman and OEL)

9th Jared Cowen: 0.438ppg (WHL)

11th Ryan Ellis: 1.591ppg (OHL)

12th Calvin Da Haan: 0.926ppg (OHL)

14th Dmitri Kulikov: 1.088ppg (Q)

30th Simon Despres: 0.485ppg (Q)

 

2010 (I skipped Tinordi to include Pysyk 1 pick later)

3^rd Eric Gudbranson: 0.561ppg (OHL)

10^th Dylan McIlrath: 0.369ppg (WHL)

12^th Cam Fowler: 1.0ppg (OHL)

13^th Brandon Gormley: 0.741ppg (Q)

23^rd Mark Pysyk: 0.5ppg (WHL)

 

2011 (This draft has several good non Canadian Junior defenders taking between 4^th and 19^th)

9^th Dougie Hamilton: 0.866ppg (OHL)

11^th Duncan Siemens: 0.597ppg (WHL)

17^th Nathan Beaulieu: 0.692ppg (Q)

23^rd Joe Morrow: 0.817ppg (WHL) (3rd season in WHL)

25^th Stuart Percy: 0.736ppg (OHL)

 

2012 (This draft saw 8 defenders taken in the top 10)

2^nd Ryan Murray: 0.674ppg (WHL)

4^th Griffin Reinhart: 0.623ppg (WHL)

5^th Morgan Rielly: 1.0ppg (WHL) (Only Played 18games)

7^th Matthew Dumba: 0.826ppg (WHL)

8^th Derrick Pouliot: 0.819ppg (WHL)

 

2013 (This draft Rasmus has so far been at the top of for defenders but he isn’t Canadian Juniors)

4^th Seth Jones: 0.918ppg (WHL)

7^th Darnell Nurse: 0.603ppg (OHL)

11^th Samuel Morin: 0.348ppg (Q)

13^th Josh Morrissey: 0.671ppg (WHL) (Jumped up to 1.237ppg the following year)

15^th Ryan Pulock: 0.738ppg (WHL)

 

2014 (Only 5 Canadian Junior players taken in the first round)

1^st Aaron Ekblad: 0.914ppg (OHL) (Was playing in 3^rd OHL season)

7^th Haydn Fleury: 0.657ppg (WHL)

14^th Julius Honka: 0.903ppg (WHL)

17^th Travis Sanheim: 0.433ppg (WHL) (Jumped up to 0.97ppg the following year)

19^th Anthony DeAngelo: 1.392ppg (OHL) (Was playing 3^rd OHL season)

 

2016 (The presumed top 5 Canadian Junior defenders, not in any particular order)

Jakob Chychrun: 0.790ppg (OHL)

Olli Juolevi: 0.737ppg (OHL)

Jake Bean: 0.941ppg (WHL)

Mikhail Sergachev: 0.851ppg (OHL)

Lucas Johansen: 0.710ppg (WHL)

 

 

What have I gathered from this? Top 5 OHL defenders above a 0.65ppg probably should get drafted. Top 5 WHL defenders above a 0.7ppg probably should get drafted. Players who are 3rd year guys during their draft year need to be evaluated more heavily but should not be discounted. Also there is more to defense than scoring which I know. I just wanted to give some comparables. 

 

QMJHL defenders only saw 3 make the top 5 and of those 3, 1.088ppg was the highest. Of those 3 players none of them have had much NHL success although Sanheim was drafted in 2013 so it isn't fair to judge him yet. Nathan Beaulieu is a regular on the Canadian Blue Line. Despres doesn't impress me much but the top guy Dmitri Kulikov is a nice player in Florida. 

 

Looking at this I think that if you are ranking your top 5 defenders on your draft board, you will want to look at league and PPG as there were several instances of guys with mediocre PPG being taken and then players such as Morgan Rielly and Cam Fowler being taken after. Ryan Ellis is the biggest outlier although he is a successful NHL player. I firmly believe his size become a factor which is why he is not as effective as an NHL player. So there ya go, take look and see what conclusions you draw, ppg is not everything but if I have 2 equal guys on my board at 8 like Chychrun and Juolevi, I am leaning Chychrun according to history even though I think Juolevi will be fine as well.

Edited May 12, 2016 by LGR4GM

[WildCard]

It appears that we should draft Jake Bean. The best defender listed in every draft above had the highest ppg

[LGR4GM]

It appears that we should draft Jake Bean. The best defender listed in every draft above had the highest ppg

Ekblad and Kulikov are the best defenders listed but not best in PPG.  I think just using PPG oversimplifies things but this draft is very strong at defense if you look at the numbers from previous drafts. 

 

I am wondering now if I should have also included size and weight. Rakish and I both have a theory about the importance of that compared to points.

Edited May 12, 2016 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

Here are the same 30 players listed in order of PPG. Their overall draft position is listed at the end.

 

1.     Ryan Ellis: 1.591ppg (OHL) 11^th

2.     Anthony DeAngelo: 1.392ppg (OHL) (Was playing in 3^rd OHL season) 19^th

3.     Dmitri Kulikov: 1.088ppg (Q) 14^th

4.     Morgan Rielly: 1.0ppg (WHL) 5^th

5.     Cam Fowler: 1.0ppg (OHL) 12^th

6.     Calvin Da Haan: 0.926ppg (OHL) 12^th

7.     Seth Jones: 0.918ppg (WHL) 4^th

8.     Aaron Ekblad: 0.914ppg (OHL) (Was playing in 3^rd OHL season) 1^st

9.     Julius Honka: 0.903ppg (WHL) 14^th

10.   Dougie Hamilton: 0.866ppg (OHL) 9^th

11.   Matthew Dumba: 0.826ppg (WHL) 7^th

12.   Derrick Pouliot: 0.819ppg (WHL) 8^th

13.   Joe Morrow: 0.817ppg (WHL) (Was playing in 3^rd OHL season) 23^rd 

14.   Brandon Gormley: 0.741ppg (Q) 13^th

15.   Ryan Pulock: 0.738ppg (WHL) 15^th

16.   Stuart Percy: 0.736ppg (OHL) 25^th

17.   Nathan Beaulieu: 0.692ppg (Q) 17^th

18.   Ryan Murray: 0.674ppg (WHL) 2^nd

19.   Josh Morrissey: 0.671ppg (WHL) 13^th

20.   Haydn Fleury: 0.657ppg (WHL) 7^th

21.   Griffin Reinhart: 0.623ppg (WHL) 4^th

22.   Darnell Nurse: 0.603ppg (OHL) 7^th

23.   Duncan Siemens: 0.597ppg (WHL) 11^th

24.   Eric Gudbranson: 0.561ppg (OHL) 3^rd

25.   Mark Pysyk: 0.5ppg (WHL) 23^rd

26.   Simon Despres: 0.485ppg (Q) 30^th

27.   Jared Cowen: 0.438ppg (WHL) 9^th

28.   Travis Sanheim: 0.433ppg (WHL) (Jumped up to 0.97ppg the following year) 17^th

29.   Dylan McIlrath: 0.369ppg (WHL) 10^th

30.   Samuel Morin: 0.348ppg (Q) 11^th

Edited May 12, 2016 by LGR4GM

[Crusader1969]

ESPN rankings out today - Patrick Laine is the #1 prospect. i think you will see a couple of other ranking sites move him into the #1 slot.  Mckeen's hockey has had him there since January.

 

4) Keller

5) Dubois
6) Tkachuk

7) Nylander

8) Juolevi

9) Jost

10) Fabbro 

 

It would be amazing for Murray to have pick of all the Dmen at #8.

 

I predict that Edmonton will trade that pick 4 for a top4 dman and other teams #1. 

Would you consider Pysyk, prospect and #8 for the pick #4? I would but I'm not sure Pysyk would entice the Oilers or not.

[Crusader1969]

Ekblad and Kulikov are the best defenders listed but not best in PPG.  I think just using PPG oversimplifies things but this draft is very strong at defense if you look at the numbers from previous drafts. 

 

I am wondering now if I should have also included size and weight. Rakish and I both have a theory about the importance of that compared to points.

 

 

Sergachev would be an interesting case study. Kid comes over from Russia last summer and can't speak English at that time. takes a couple of months to adjust to change in culture and North American game. Over the last 54 games he plays (Halloween foward) he puts up 52 points.

Edited May 12, 2016 by Crusader1969

[3putt]

Here are the same 30 players listed in order of PPG. Their overall draft position is listed at the end.

 

1.     Ryan Ellis: 1.591ppg (OHL) 11^th

2.     Anthony DeAngelo: 1.392ppg (OHL) (Was playing in 3^rd OHL season) 19^th

3.     Dmitri Kulikov: 1.088ppg (Q) 14^th

4.     Morgan Rielly: 1.0ppg (WHL) 5^th

5.     Cam Fowler: 1.0ppg (OHL) 12^th

6.     Calvin Da Haan: 0.926ppg (OHL) 12^th

7.     Seth Jones: 0.918ppg (WHL) 4^th

8.     Aaron Ekblad: 0.914ppg (OHL) (Was playing in 3^rd OHL season) 1^st

9.     Julius Honka: 0.903ppg (WHL) 14^th

10.   Dougie Hamilton: 0.866ppg (OHL) 9^th

11.   Matthew Dumba: 0.826ppg (WHL) 7^th

12.   Derrick Pouliot: 0.819ppg (WHL) 8^th

13.   Joe Morrow: 0.817ppg (WHL) (Was playing in 3^rd OHL season) 23^rd 

14.   Brandon Gormley: 0.741ppg (Q) 13^th

15.   Ryan Pulock: 0.738ppg (WHL) 15^th

16.   Stuart Percy: 0.736ppg (OHL) 25^th

17.   Nathan Beaulieu: 0.692ppg (Q) 17^th

18.   Ryan Murray: 0.674ppg (WHL) 2^nd

19.   Josh Morrissey: 0.671ppg (WHL) 13^th

20.   Haydn Fleury: 0.657ppg (WHL) 7^th

21.   Griffin Reinhart: 0.623ppg (WHL) 4^th

22.   Darnell Nurse: 0.603ppg (OHL) 7^th

23.   Duncan Siemens: 0.597ppg (WHL) 11^th

24.   Eric Gudbranson: 0.561ppg (OHL) 3^rd

25.   Mark Pysyk: 0.5ppg (WHL) 23^rd

26.   Simon Despres: 0.485ppg (Q) 30^th

27.   Jared Cowen: 0.438ppg (WHL) 9^th

28.   Travis Sanheim: 0.433ppg (WHL) (Jumped up to 0.97ppg the following year) 17^th

29.   Dylan McIlrath: 0.369ppg (WHL) 10^th

30.   Samuel Morin: 0.348ppg (Q) 11^th

Nice work.  Is this points per 60 or per game.  Toi is relevant I think.  

[LGR4GM]

Per game not TOI.

[French Collection]

Nice research.

 

Focuses on the offensive side of the position. Defensemen come with a variety of skill sets and the shut down guys may not put up big numbers at any level but still end up on the first or second pair.

 

I've always liked Ellis, on a different team he could be the PP QB. He would put up way better numbers with Josi.

[TrueBlueGED]

ESPN rankings out today - Patrick Laine is the #1 prospect. i think you will see a couple of other ranking sites move him into the #1 slot.  Mckeen's hockey has had him there since January.

 

4) Keller

5) Dubois

6) Tkachuk

7) Nylander

8) Juolevi

9) Jost

10) Fabbro 

 

It would be amazing for Murray to have pick of all the Dmen at #8.

 

I predict that Edmonton will trade that pick 4 for a top4 dman and other teams #1. 

Would you consider Pysyk, prospect and #8 for the pick #4? I would but I'm not sure Pysyk would entice the Oilers or not.

 

Keller at 4! I love Keller! Not sure if I #4 overall love Keller, but nice to see a major voice give him some recognition. Interesting that neither Chychrun nor Sergachev make the cut.

[North Buffalo]

ESPN rankings out today - Patrick Laine is the #1 prospect. i think you will see a couple of other ranking sites move him into the #1 slot.  Mckeen's hockey has had him there since January.

 

4) Keller

5) Dubois

6) Tkachuk

7) Nylander

8) Juolevi

9) Jost

10) Fabbro 

 

It would be amazing for Murray to have pick of all the Dmen at #8.

 

I predict that Edmonton will trade that pick 4 for a top4 dman and other teams #1. 

Would you consider Pysyk, prospect and #8 for the pick #4? I would but I'm not sure Pysyk would entice the Oilers or not.

Its ESPN wtf do they know about hockey screw them.

[TrueBlueGED]

Its ESPN wtf do they know about hockey screw them.

 

Corey Pronman, formerly of Hockey Prospectus, does the rankings. He's quite good, and always an excellent read--goes in depth about why the prospects are where they are, including comparisons to other prospects ranked around them. 

[Crusader1969]

Corey Pronman, formerly of Hockey Prospectus, does the rankings. He's quite good, and always an excellent read--goes in depth about why the prospects are where they are, including comparisons to other prospects ranked around them. 

 

Chychrun 11 and Sergachev 17 - definitely the lowest I've seen Sergi.  Though his write-up on Sergachev is quite positive.

[LGR4GM]

Nice research.

 

Focuses on the offensive side of the position. Defensemen come with a variety of skill sets and the shut down guys may not put up big numbers at any level but still end up on the first or second pair.

 

I've always liked Ellis, on a different team he could be the PP QB. He would put up way better numbers with Josi.

I wanted to talk about this. I don't believe in today's NHL you can afford to put a true shut down defender in your top 4. The guy has to know how to move the puck which in turns means more than stopping someone and chipping it out. This in turn means that they most likely in juniors had to put up points because if they are so elite at shutting down other teams then they should be the ones with great breakout passes or skating the puck out and starting the offense. This would result in assists.  The days of the stay at home defender are fading in my mind. Defenders need to be able to at the very least exit the zone in control of the puck. I therefore believe that if a defender is not generating offense at the junior level then their defensive game is not elite enough because they should be stopping players in the defensive zone, controlling the puck, and executing a proper zone exit which would naturally lead to points. Travis Sanheim is the only player on that list I think falls into the shut down role and even he was asked to elevate his offense post draft year. 

ESPN rankings out today - Patrick Laine is the #1 prospect. i think you will see a couple of other ranking sites move him into the #1 slot.  Mckeen's hockey has had him there since January.

 

4) Keller

5) Dubois

6) Tkachuk

7) Nylander

8) Juolevi

9) Jost

10) Fabbro 

 

It would be amazing for Murray to have pick of all the Dmen at #8.

 

I predict that Edmonton will trade that pick 4 for a top4 dman and other teams #1. 

Would you consider Pysyk, prospect and #8 for the pick #4? I would but I'm not sure Pysyk would entice the Oilers or not.

Do to his size and the fact he did not play a year of college like Eichel, I would not take Keller at #4. At #8 I might consider it. I also disagree with Fabbro being that high. He played in high school last year and while he has looked good in the WJC, I am not rating a guy that high based off of 8 games. 

[3putt]

Fabbro palyed with Jost in the BCHL not high school.  At 6 5 he has offensive skill and physicality.  I think that may be a high rank but I can see where some would see a high upside.  Some compare him to Hedman. 

[Crusader1969]

Fabbro palyed with Jost in the BCHL not high school.  At 6 5 he has offensive skill and physicality.  I think that may be a high rank but I can see where some would see a high upside.  Some compare him to Hedman. 

 

Fabbro is 6'0 but you are right that he played in BCHL that has produced some really good NHL players.

I wanted to talk about this. I don't believe in today's NHL you can afford to put a true shut down defender in your top 4. The guy has to know how to move the puck which in turns means more than stopping someone and chipping it out. This in turn means that they most likely in juniors had to put up points because if they are so elite at shutting down other teams then they should be the ones with great breakout passes or skating the puck out and starting the offense. This would result in assists.  The days of the stay at home defender are fading in my mind. Defenders need to be able to at the very least exit the zone in control of the puck. I therefore believe that if a defender is not generating offense at the junior level then their defensive game is not elite enough because they should be stopping players in the defensive zone, controlling the puck, and executing a proper zone exit which would naturally lead to points. Travis Sanheim is the only player on that list I think falls into the shut down role and even he was asked to elevate his offense post draft year. 

Do to his size and the fact he did not play a year of college like Eichel, I would not take Keller at #4. At #8 I might consider it. I also disagree with Fabbro being that high. He played in high school last year and while he has looked good in the WJC, I am not rating a guy that high based off of 8 games. 

 

Love this point!

[LGR4GM]

Fabbro palyed with Jost in the BCHL not high school.  At 6 5 he has offensive skill and physicality.  I think that may be a high rank but I can see where some would see a high upside.  Some compare him to Hedman. 

You are right, I was thinking of Riley Tufte for some random reason and got them confused.