2016 NHL Draft

[Derrico]

I think age is also important. If I feel like I'm overpaying a bit for a player I want it to be a guy that's had a few years in the league to prove himself but is also just starting to hit his prime. ROR age would fit in well with this young core. You know year 6 or whatever of the deal you still should be getting value for what you paid.

[WildCard]

I think age is also important. If I feel like I'm overpaying a bit for a player I want it to be a guy that's had a few years in the league to prove himself but is also just starting to hit his prime. ROR age would fit in well with this young core. You know year 6 or whatever of the deal you still should be getting value for what you paid.

If we pay ROR $8 mil/year at 6 years, we're gonna be in a bide when our prominent rookies want to get paid, no?

[TrueBlueGED]

If we pay ROR $8 mil/year at 6 years, we're gonna be in a bide when our prominent rookies want to get paid, no?

Not really. Guys like Moulson, Gionta, Gorges will be off the books. I do, however, think it's imperative to get players like Risto locked up long term before they hit their peak and command maximum money.

[WildCard]

Not really. Guys like Moulson, Gionta, Gorges will be off the books. I do, however, think it's imperative to get players like Risto locked up long term before they hit their peak and command maximum money.

We've seen with Chicago and others that we can afford two "mega-deals" and then some middle contracts of $5-6 mil/year. 

 

Eichel/Reinhart: $10 mil/year each. (Considering that bench mark is already set, it could be more than this)

 

Risto: $6-7 mil/year

Zadorov: $4-5 mil/year

(most teams cannot afford to spend this much on two -dmen, I imagine Zadorov eventually bolts for more money and we invest wisely in Risto instead.)

 

Evander Kane: $7-8 mil/year

Zemgus: $5 mil/year

 

The tank has brought us a double-edged sword. We have so much great young talent, that we can't hope to keep them all and bring in high-price FA's. I would rather invest the money in Zemgus, and sprinkle the rest around for Kane and Risto, than to throw a huge chunk of it at ROR for a guy who belongs on a 2nd line, especially given our future squad. 

[Derrico]

I'm not as savy as most with the cap. We should be able to keep costs down for the first few years can't we? How long is the rookie deal? It's 7 or 8 years before ufa isn't it? I'd structure it 5 or 6 as the young guns should be fairly controllable for that length correct? I agree with blue that risto will be the first priority and I don't want him anywhere near free agency.

[Hoss]

The only year ROR has broken the 20g plateau was last year.  Last year his shot% was .37 above where it normally sits meaning that statistically he isn't a 20+ goal scorer.  While his defensive skills are as far as takeaways are impressive, he is averaging 88 a year.  So just a touch over 1 per game.  His giveaways sit at 30 on average which means he is very sound defensively but at what point do these extra defensive skills become superfluous?  How often is 1 takeaway a game making the difference?  Judging by the way hockey works probably not as much as we would like.  

 

If we look at other stats I can see that he starts just over 50% of the time in the defensive zone and for the last 2 years has faced above average competition.  Now looking at his Corsi and Fenqick we can see that mathematically ROR on the ice his team has the puck only 50% of the time so again we are in the middle.  Now I can tell you that ROR is contributing positively to the possession numbers.  So far we can all agree Defensively ROR is a very good player.  

 

Now looking once again at the offense his usage suggests he spends almost no time on the PP.  His pp shots and such are very low, 49 total attempted PP for the entire season.  Why?   Well for one if you watch Ryan O'Reilly his shot is average. He does get the shot through about 62% of the time which is decent.  Just to show what I mean and so you have a bench mark for that, Zemgus is at about 61% of shots getting through.  So ROR is again doing okay but not great.  If we look at his PK stuff, the outlier year for Sh% is also the outlier year for his good PK stuff.  This past year his TOI for pk ice time was only 156.9minutes so this again isn't what he was getting used most.  Most of his time is 5v5 which is fine.  He seems to handle his minutes well and again is right in the middle.  

 

Now if you want we could talk about now stats stuff like his on ice vision, stickhandling, hockey IQ.  Sadly it must be mentioned somewhat.  His on ice vision is above NHL average and he has a decent pass.  His stickhandling IMPO is just okay.  He is a direct kind of guy.  One thing you will notice is ROR makes safe plays.  He in some ways is like Samson in that regard although I think in the end Sammy is smarter.  His skating stride is good but he is a direct skater and you don't see the array of cuts and slashes you might want for a top 3 forward.  That said he is very strong on his skates.  He is good down low at digging the puck out.  He tends to pass first but I feel like there is a lack of creativity there.

 

I feel like that's enough.  It won't prove my point to you and that's fine because we both have decided, but when I look at O'Reilly whether that is during the game or his advanced stats his defensive play if very sound.  It is quite good.  His offensive play is very lackluster.  In truth ROR is like a better defensive version of Pommers but with less offense.

 

If I am going to tie up 8mil, which in todays lack of scoring NHL for a defensive player is questionble, then I have committed that money to someone who at heart is really a nice 2nd line defensive player that will give you 15-20goals a season and around 35a.  

Toews, Kane, Ovechkin, Malkin, Subban, Crosby, Perry, Lundqvist, Giroux, Staal, Getzlaf, Kessel, }{ Weber, Nash, Suter, Parise, Datsyuk, Spezza, Stamkos.  There is your list of players making 7.5mil or more.  Kessel and up make 8mil or more.  Ryan O'Reilly IMPO doesn't belong in that group because he doesn't bring enough to the table on the offensive side to warrant it.

 

Now you have your answer, well basically,  this was superfluous because I am not going to convince you Tank and you aren't going to convince me. I don't think ROR should make more then 7mil and truthfully I would give him 6.5 and not a penny more.  Of course I think you are accurate with how much he will ask for and some team will pay it, but that team will be a big market because I honestly believe that is where he wants to go.  

 

We're done here. 

Very good post overall. You definitely made your point, and I actually agree with portions of it. I don't agree with some of the opinion-based observations you made, but statistically you did well. I'm glad I provoked you to actually put something together.

 

The most discouraging point you made was that O'Reilly, widely regarded as one of the best defensive forwards, isn't playing a whole lot on the penalty kill consistently. It's probably related to the fact that Colorado has a good stable of forwards that are able to play the penalty kill, and they use him in the defensive zone on 5-on-5 a lot already. You play 5-on-5 more than anything else, so if he specializes in playing when the ice is full then that's not a bad thing.

 

In a perfect world there are other forwards available of similar ability that we can acquire for less and pay less... But O'Reilly is the name that's been floated out there and we've heard the Murray loves him. That's why there's so much hype and talk about him aside from the fact that he is the type of player we just don't and haven't had.

I'm not as savy as most with the cap. We should be able to keep costs down for the first few years can't we? How long is the rookie deal? It's 7 or 8 years before ufa isn't it? I'd structure it 5 or 6 as the young guns should be fairly controllable for that length correct? I agree with blue that risto will be the first priority and I don't want him anywhere near free agency.

We're a ways off from worrying about the contracts of our youth. If we go 6-7 years on O'Reilly at $8M we're only going to see an impact of that on that cap in the last couple (3 at most). Easier to overpay him right now when we've got tons of flexibility for a while.

[TrueBlueGED]

We've seen with Chicago and others that we can afford two "mega-deals" and then some middle contracts of $5-6 mil/year.

 

Eichel/Reinhart: $10 mil/year each. (Considering that bench mark is already set, it could be more than this)

 

Risto: $6-7 mil/year

Zadorov: $4-5 mil/year

(most teams cannot afford to spend this much on two -dmen, I imagine Zadorov eventually bolts for more money and we invest wisely in Risto instead.)

 

Evander Kane: $7-8 mil/year

Zemgus: $5 mil/year

 

The tank has brought us a double-edged sword. We have so much great young talent, that we can't hope to keep them all and bring in high-price FA's. I would rather invest the money in Zemgus, and sprinkle the rest around for Kane and Risto, than to throw a huge chunk of it at ROR for a guy who belongs on a 2nd line, especially given our future squad.

The last sentence is simply where we don't see eye to eye, and may be a gap we can never bridge. If the only thing he brought was ~55 points from the wing, you might be able to say he's a second line player. But in terms of raw points that's 1st line production, and when you add in his complete game, he's a clear 1st line player.

[WildCard]

The last sentence is simply where we don't see eye to eye, and may be a gap we can never bridge. If the only thing he brought was ~55 points from the wing, you might be able to say he's a second line player. But in terms of raw points that's 1st line production, and when you add in his complete game, he's a clear 1st line player.

Who is he going to usurp on our team for that spot? Kane? Ennis? 

[TrueBlueGED]

Who is he going to usurp on our team for that spot? Kane? Ennis?

Either one works. I think it's important to keep some perspective here: being a 1st line player doesn't mean that player literally has to be on the first line when the roster is set. Pat Kane rarely plays with Toews at even strength, yet I'd think we could agree they're both 1st line players.

 

I think it's a bit dogmatic to insist on the 1st line being three 1st line players, then proceed to turn down adding another 1st line player just because he'd be on the 2nd line. Hell, that's what we should he aiming for: more than the bare minimum of top end players. Think about why Chicago is so great: it's because they have Toews, Kane, Hossa, Sharp and Saad. That's five 1st line forwards in the lineup. We should want that, not shy away from it because of some misguided adherence to numbered lines.

[Hoss]

I do believe that O'Reilly is a top-30 center or top-30 winger. Definitely a top-90 forward. I'm fine paying him like that. But I don't think that's how to define a first-line player. However, I would love and prefer to have him on the second line. Especially if he's on Reinhart's wing (or vice versa).

 

He's a first-line player on a solid team, but if you're going to be great you need players like him on your second line.

[TrueBlueGED]

I do believe that O'Reilly is a top-30 center or top-30 winger. Definitely a top-90 forward. I'm fine paying him like that. But I don't think that's how to define a first-line player. However, I would love and prefer to have him on the second line. Especially if he's on Reinhart's wing (or vice versa).

 

He's a first-line player on a solid team, but if you're going to be great you need players like him on your second line.

Beat you to it! :nana:

[MBHockey13]

So, Auston Matthews is definitely the 2016 #1 overall pick, right?

[dudacek]

Either one works. I think it's important to keep some perspective here: being a 1st line player doesn't mean that player literally has to be on the first line when the roster is set. Pat Kane rarely plays with Toews at even strength, yet I'd think we could agree they're both 1st line players.

 

I think it's a bit dogmatic to insist on the 1st line being three 1st line players, then proceed to turn down adding another 1st line player just because he'd be on the 2nd line. Hell, that's what we should he aiming for: more than the bare minimum of top end players. Think about why Chicago is so great: it's because they have Toews, Kane, Hossa, Sharp and Saad. That's five 1st line forwards in the lineup. We should want that, not shy away from it because of some misguided adherence to numbered lines.

 

 

I do believe that O'Reilly is a top-30 center or top-30 winger. Definitely a top-90 forward. I'm fine paying him like that. But I don't think that's how to define a first-line player. However, I would love and prefer to have him on the second line. Especially if he's on Reinhart's wing (or vice versa).

 

He's a first-line player on a solid team, but if you're going to be great you need players like him on your second line.

 

If the Superdraft means anything you are both right. 37th forward taken if I counted correctly.

[Eleven]

So, Auston Matthews is definitely the 2016 #1 overall pick, right?

 

This thread is sucking my will to live.

[Hoss]

So, Auston Matthews is definitely the 2016 #1 overall pick, right?

Most likely, yes. :P Would take a big run to knock him off. Or him going to the Swiss league and looking like a toddler among men.

 

 

Let's take the O'Reilly talk elsewhere guys. I think he's worth the discussion considering the reported interested and possible availability.

Edited May 17, 2015 by Hoss

[MattPie]

If acquired, O'Reilly would be our best forward next year. Raw scoring, position versatility, possession numbers, defensive acumen...he's better than every single one of our forwards across the board, with the *possible* exception of Kane. I don't care about handedness, or that in our wet dreams Zemgus becomes that good...if you have the chance to acquire somebody who would be your best forward, you do it. And you sure as hell don't pass on him because of Matt Moulson. You acquire pieces like O'Reilly when they're available and worry about a potential logjam of inferior players later.

 

And, at the end of next year he may well be gone. Money offered by Buffalo probably won't be an issue, but if he decides he wants to go play for the Seattle Grunge (recently moved from Miami) since they're the odds-on favorite for the cup finals.

[MBHockey13]

And, at the end of next year he may well be gone. Money offered by Buffalo probably won't be an issue, but if he decides he wants to go play for the Seattle Grunge (recently moved from Miami) since they're the odds-on favorite for the cup finals.

 

There's an O'Reilly thread now.

[Eleven]

There's an O'Reilly thread now.

 

At least two.

[Crusader1969]

Initial Top 10 from Future Considerations:

 

1). C Auston Matthews, US NTDP U18 (USHL), 6-2, 200

2). D Jakob Chychrun, Sarnia (OHL), 6-2, 200

3). RW Jesse Puljujarvi, Karpat (Liiga), 6-3, 200

4). LW Matthew Tkachuk, US NTDP U18 (USHL), 6-1, 190

5). LW Max Jones, US NTDP U17 (USHL), 6-2, 200

6). D Chad Krys, US NTDP U17 (USHL), 5-11, 185

7). LW Tyler Benson, Vancouver (WHL), 6-0, 200

8). LW/C Dmitri Sokolov, Omskie Yastreby (MHL), 6-0, 215

9). C Sam Steel, Regina (WHL), 5-11, 170

10). D Sean Day, Mississauga (OHL), 6-2, 225

 

its being reported that the Matthews decision is coming today or tomorrow. He is either going to Everett of the WHL or Switzerland.

Edited May 27, 2015 by Crusader1969

[Hoss]

I know two season ticket holders for Everett. Really pulling for them to get one year of Matthews.

[Derrico]

Surprised Day is ranked 10th.  He was one of only 4 players to be granted Exceptional Player Status for the CHL Draft.  The other three (Tavares, Ekblad, McDavid) all went 1st overall in their NHL draft year.

[dudacek]

Surprised Day is ranked 10th.  He was one of only 4 players to be granted Exceptional Player Status for the CHL Draft.  The other three (Tavares, Ekblad, McDavid) all went 1st overall in their NHL draft year.

 

I think the thing with Day was his man's body.

He's 6'3" 230 already.

[LGR4GM]

It's a 2016 draft rank from May 2015... it doesn't really matter at all. 

[Randall Flagg]

Day has amazing skills but he makes a lot of mistakes and doesn't seem to be able to think the game at a level as high as his skill set. He was granted exceptional status but was taken 4th overall (IIRC) in the following draft, while Tavares, Crosby, and McDavid all were taken first. I think he can be a good player but in my opinion he won't be a top-pairing guy.

[Crusader1969]

now reported that it is close to 100% Matthews to Europe however teams from Sweden and Finland have entered the bidding.