2016 NHL Draft

[LGR4GM]

I want you to go out and list all the players who will make 7.5mil or more next year.  I want you to split that list into 2 categories.  Players that should be making 7.5mil and players that are being overpaid.  Then I want you to put Ryan O'Reilly's name down at the bottom and we will discuss which list he belongs too. 

Speaking as one of the people who has no interest in Ryan O'Reilly I can say that I know the guy is good I just don't think he is worth acquiring for the following reasons.

First off he's left handed and he plays center or left wing and we are full at those positions. We already have Kane and Moulson who make 5 million or more per year to play left wing in the top 6 and w have Foligno and Desauriers who play left wing on the bottom 6. We also have Ennis playing right wing who is a left handed shot who would probably be better served playing left wing. At Center we have Eichel, Reinhart, Girgensons, Grigorenko, Larsson, and McCormick of which Girgensons, Grigorenko, and Larsson are all left handed shots and can play left wing or center so unless we plan on putting our blue chip center prospects in Eichel and Reinhart at right wing for the long term instead of their natural center positions then I fail to see where O'Reilly fits in.

Secondly, he will be too expensive both in assets given up to acquire him and in cap space. His history shows he's looking to get paid and he already makes 6 million so it's safe to assume he'll demand more to be locked up long term. Paying 7 or 8 million per year for a guy we don't seem to have a spot is just a bad idea.

Thank you. 

Edited May 17, 2015 by LGR4GM

[Hoss]

I want you to go out and list all the players who will make 7.5mil or more next year.  I want you to split that list into 2 categories.  Players that should be making 7.5mil and players that are being overpaid.  Then I want you to put Ryan O'Reilly's name down at the bottom and we will discuss which list he belongs too. 

That seems like something you could just do yourself if you're the one trying to make a point.

 

 

I like O'Reilly. We don't have a forward that approaches his style or ability at this point. We can only wish that Zemgus becomes him, but if he must be in the deal then so be it.

I do get the concerns about him playing positions we already have filled, but it's not like they're filled by guys that are as good as him or by guys that we know are top-six forwards immediately or in the future.

 

Personally, I'm concerned about O'Reilly not wanting to stick around because he likely wouldn't be a long-term center on the first two lines. If I remember correctly there was some talks about him wanting to leave Colorado for that reason back when he signed the offer sheet in Calgary.

Edited May 17, 2015 by Hoss

[LGR4GM]

That seems like something you could just do yourself if you're the one trying to make a point.

 

 

I like O'Reilly. We don't have a forward that approaches his style or ability at this point. We can only wish that Zemgus becomes him, but if he must be in the deal then so be it.

I do get the concerns about him playing positions we already have filled, but it's not like they're filled by guys that are as good as him or by guys that we know are top-six forwards immediately or in the future.

 

Personally, I'm concerned about O'Reilly not wanting to stick around because he likely wouldn't be a long-term center on the first two lines. If I remember correctly there was some talks about him wanting to leave Colorado for that reason back when he signed the offer sheet in Calgary.

If you don't see how Zemgus is fast approaching O'Reilly I can't help you.  

 

Also I am not providing the list because I believe in self discovery.  Already looked it up myself.  I found it quite illuminating. 

[SwampD]

Just a couple of thoughts here. Imo, you can never have too many centers. Ever.

 

Also, the whole left handed/right handed thing is so overblown, at least for forwards. A guy can play his position or he can't.

Edited May 17, 2015 by SumpfV

[Hoss]

If you don't see how Zemgus is fast approaching O'Reilly I can't help you.  

 

Also I am not providing the list because I believe in self discovery.  Already looked it up myself.  I found it quite illuminating. 

 

This post is terrible.

 

It reads:

"If you don't agree with my opinion then you're a helpless fool.

 

Also, I am not making the argument that I asked somebody else to make because I already did it in my head. It was an awesome argument, but I won't make it. Do it yourself."

Edited May 17, 2015 by Hoss

[Randall Flagg]

I agree with swamp about handedness. Detroit has six left shot defensemen. It happens. O'Reilly>>>>>our other players, and Zemgus' ceiling is what Ryan is today, and like any other player, zemgus is more likely than not to fall slightly short of his ceiling. I hope like hell Zemgus hits O'Reilly level but not making a trade because it's possible (though not probable) that that could happen soon is ridiculous and I guarantee TM and any other GM doesn't think that way.

[Derrico]

Why are we paying Ryan O'Reilly top 3 forward money?

Because he's a top 3 forward. Huge skill, can put up points, strong on the puck and great defensively. He's a great all around player.

[LGR4GM]

This post is terrible.

 

It reads:

"If you don't agree with my opinion then you're a helpless fool.

 

Also, I am not making the argument that I asked somebody else to make because I already did it in my head. It was an awesome argument, but I won't make it. Do it yourself."

Sure tank. 

 

Because he's a top 3 forward. Huge skill, can put up points, strong on the puck and great defensively. He's a great all around player.

No he isn't.

 

 

 

 

Look this is turning into the exact same type of argument I had back when Stafford got his last contract. You guys have a raging clue for Ryan O'Reilly and I don't know if he's just been overhyped or you saw a specific game of his, frankly I am done.  There is no point to continue because you won't convince me we need him. I am not going to convince you we don't.  You will throw out the facts you think, I will toss out mind and just like we have been doing for a year now, it will just be the same back n forth with the same arguments and points. We have officially reached an impasse.  

[dudacek]

We haven't seen O'Reilly go in the Superdraft yet, but I'd bet good money he won't fall below the third round.

That's a first-line forward. You can't have enough of those, no matter what hand they shoot.

[TrueBlueGED]

We haven't seen O'Reilly go in the Superdraft yet, but I'd bet good money he won't fall below the third round.

That's a first-line forward. You can't have enough of those, no matter what hand they shoot.

If he goes before my next pick I'll never forgive you for this.

[Derrico]

Sure tank. 

 

 

No he isn't.

 

 

 

 

Look this is turning into the exact same type of argument I had back when Stafford got his last contract. You guys have a raging clue for Ryan O'Reilly and I don't know if he's just been overhyped or you saw a specific game of his, frankly I am done.  There is no point to continue because you won't convince me we need him. I am not going to convince you we don't.  You will throw out the facts you think, I will toss out mind and just like we have been doing for a year now, it will just be the same back n forth with the same arguments and points. We have officially reached an impasse.

 

You're really comparing ROR to stafford?? Ok now I'm done as well. He's a top 3 forward on almost any team.

[TrueBlueGED]

If acquired, O'Reilly would be our best forward next year. Raw scoring, position versatility, possession numbers, defensive acumen...he's better than every single one of our forwards across the board, with the *possible* exception of Kane. I don't care about handedness, or that in our wet dreams Zemgus becomes that good...if you have the chance to acquire somebody who would be your best forward, you do it. And you sure as hell don't pass on him because of Matt Moulson. You acquire pieces like O'Reilly when they're available and worry about a potential logjam of inferior players later.

[Derrico]

If acquired, O'Reilly would be our best forward next year. Raw scoring, position versatility, possession numbers, defensive acumen...he's better than every single one of our forwards across the board, with the *possible* exception of Kane. I don't care about handedness, or that in our wet dreams Zemgus becomes that good...if you have the chance to acquire somebody who would be your best forward, you do it. And you sure as hell don't pass on him because of Matt Moulson. You acquire pieces like O'Reilly when they're available and worry about a potential logjam of inferior players later.

Did you only watch him once?

[Neo]

Sure tank. 

 

 

No he isn't.

 

 

Look this is turning into the exact same type of argument I had back when Stafford got his last contract. You guys have a raging clue for Ryan O'Reilly and I don't know if he's just been overhyped or you saw a specific game of his, frankly I am done.  There is no point to continue because you won't convince me we need him. I am not going to convince you we don't.  You will throw out the facts you think, I will toss out mind and just like we have been doing for a year now, it will just be the same back n forth with the same arguments and points. We have officially reached an impasse.

 

Shhhh .... You're gonna get the whole internet closed!

[K-9]

Did you only watch him once?

You shouldn't watch Ryan O'Reilly once, Johnny. 

 

My mother watched Ryan O'Reilly once. 

 

Once. 

[ubkev]

You shouldn't watch Ryan O'Reilly once, Johnny.

 

My mother watched Ryan O'Reilly once.

 

Once.

You shouldn't kick me in the balls, Mrs. Kelly

 

My sister kicked me in the balls once.

 

Once.

Edited May 17, 2015 by ubkev

[qwksndmonster]

If acquired, O'Reilly would be our best forward next year. Raw scoring, position versatility, possession numbers, defensive acumen...he's better than every single one of our forwards across the board, with the *possible* exception of Kane. I don't care about handedness, or that in our wet dreams Zemgus becomes that good...if you have the chance to acquire somebody who would be your best forward, you do it. And you sure as hell don't pass on him because of Matt Moulson. You acquire pieces like O'Reilly when they're available and worry about a potential logjam of inferior players later.

Great post.

[LGR4GM]

You're really comparing ROR to stafford?? Ok now I'm done as well. He's a top 3 forward on almost any team.

No I am not comparing ROR to Drew. I am comparing the types of arguments that occurred around here. 1 side wouldn't budge, the other side wouldn't budge and it went no where. 

If acquired, O'Reilly would be our best forward next year. Raw scoring, position versatility, possession numbers, defensive acumen...he's better than every single one of our forwards across the board, with the *possible* exception of Kane. I don't care about handedness, or that in our wet dreams Zemgus becomes that good...if you have the chance to acquire somebody who would be your best forward, you do it. And you sure as hell don't pass on him because of Matt Moulson. You acquire pieces like O'Reilly when they're available and worry about a potential logjam of inferior players later.

I disagree about ROR's talent.  Hence the impasse. 

[Hoss]

I disagree about ROR's talent.  Hence the impasse. 

I have never seen you make a legitimate argument on this. You just say it as many times as you can and then say you won't discuss it.

 

427 games played at age 24.

Three 50-point seasons under his belt.

Lady Byng winner a year ago.

Forces more turnovers than anybody else in the league while taking penalties at an impressively low clip.

Highest turnover plus/minus this year by 18. Second the year before (by 1). Sixth the year before that. First the year before that.

(The Sabres have had one player in the top 60 of this category of the last six seasons)

 

He's a top-five defensive forward in the game who can put up anywhere between 50-70 points with a talented group.

 

 

So what are we missing that only you see? I want to hear a legitimate argument from you, honestly. Not just attempted slights and shrugs.

Edited May 17, 2015 by Hoss

[WildCard]

I have never seen you make a legitimate argument on this. You just say it as many times as you can and then say you won't discuss it.

 

427 games played at age 24.

Three 50-point seasons under his belt.

Lady Byng winner a year ago.

Forces more turnovers than anybody else in the league while taking penalties at an impressively low clip.

Highest turnover plus/minus this year by 18. Second the year before (by 1). Sixth the year before that. First the year before that.

(The Sabres have had one player in the top 60 of this category of the last six seasons)

 

He's a top-five defensive forward in the game who can put up anywhere between 50-70 points with a talented group.

 

 

So what are we missing that only you see? I want to hear a legitimate argument from you, honestly. Not just attempted slights and shrugs.

He's the definition of solid, that's for sure. I don't think he warrants $8 mil/year though as you speculated he'll get earlier.

[TrueBlueGED]

He's the definition of solid, that's for sure. I don't think he warrants $8 mil/year though as you speculated he'll get earlier.

If Toews can make $10.5 mil, O'Reilly can make 8. They play a very similar game, Toews is just better offensively. I don't think O'Reilly hits 8, but 7-7.5 is possible.

[Hoss]

He's the definition of solid, that's for sure. I don't think he warrants $8 mil/year though as you speculated he'll get earlier.

No, I didn't speculate that. Sheesh. Follow a conversation, Wildcard. :P

 

I think he warrants a deal in that neighborhood once the cap actually goes up. He's worth $7M for sure. 

Edited May 17, 2015 by Hoss

[LGR4GM]

The only year ROR has broken the 20g plateau was last year.  Last year his shot% was .37 above where it normally sits meaning that statistically he isn't a 20+ goal scorer.  While his defensive skills are as far as takeaways are impressive, he is averaging 88 a year.  So just a touch over 1 per game.  His giveaways sit at 30 on average which means he is very sound defensively but at what point do these extra defensive skills become superfluous?  How often is 1 takeaway a game making the difference?  Judging by the way hockey works probably not as much as we would like.  

 

If we look at other stats I can see that he starts just over 50% of the time in the defensive zone and for the last 2 years has faced above average competition.  Now looking at his Corsi and Fenqick we can see that mathematically ROR on the ice his team has the puck only 50% of the time so again we are in the middle.  Now I can tell you that ROR is contributing positively to the possession numbers.  So far we can all agree Defensively ROR is a very good player.  

 

Now looking once again at the offense his usage suggests he spends almost no time on the PP.  His pp shots and such are very low, 49 total attempted PP for the entire season.  Why?   Well for one if you watch Ryan O'Reilly his shot is average. He does get the shot through about 62% of the time which is decent.  Just to show what I mean and so you have a bench mark for that, Zemgus is at about 61% of shots getting through.  So ROR is again doing okay but not great.  If we look at his PK stuff, the outlier year for Sh% is also the outlier year for his good PK stuff.  This past year his TOI for pk ice time was only 156.9minutes so this again isn't what he was getting used most.  Most of his time is 5v5 which is fine.  He seems to handle his minutes well and again is right in the middle.  

 

Now if you want we could talk about now stats stuff like his on ice vision, stickhandling, hockey IQ.  Sadly it must be mentioned somewhat.  His on ice vision is above NHL average and he has a decent pass.  His stickhandling IMPO is just okay.  He is a direct kind of guy.  One thing you will notice is ROR makes safe plays.  He in some ways is like Samson in that regard although I think in the end Sammy is smarter.  His skating stride is good but he is a direct skater and you don't see the array of cuts and slashes you might want for a top 3 forward.  That said he is very strong on his skates.  He is good down low at digging the puck out.  He tends to pass first but I feel like there is a lack of creativity there.

 

I feel like that's enough.  It won't prove my point to you and that's fine because we both have decided, but when I look at O'Reilly whether that is during the game or his advanced stats his defensive play if very sound.  It is quite good.  His offensive play is very lackluster.  In truth ROR is like a better defensive version of Pommers but with less offense.

 

If I am going to tie up 8mil, which in todays lack of scoring NHL for a defensive player is questionble, then I have committed that money to someone who at heart is really a nice 2nd line defensive player that will give you 15-20goals a season and around 35a.  

Toews, Kane, Ovechkin, Malkin, Subban, Crosby, Perry, Lundqvist, Giroux, Staal, Getzlaf, Kessel, }{ Weber, Nash, Suter, Parise, Datsyuk, Spezza, Stamkos.  There is your list of players making 7.5mil or more.  Kessel and up make 8mil or more.  Ryan O'Reilly IMPO doesn't belong in that group because he doesn't bring enough to the table on the offensive side to warrant it.

 

Now you have your answer, well basically,  this was superfluous because I am not going to convince you Tank and you aren't going to convince me. I don't think ROR should make more then 7mil and truthfully I would give him 6.5 and not a penny more.  Of course I think you are accurate with how much he will ask for and some team will pay it, but that team will be a big market because I honestly believe that is where he wants to go.  

 

We're done here. 

[Derrico]

Paul stastney signed last July 1 a 4 year deal worth 7 mil per year. If ROR makes it to July 1 2016 hes getting 8 mil per. ROR is worth at least a mil more than stastney. If you sign him a year in advance maybe you get it done for 7.5 per but that's just squabbling at that point. ROR will get paid and he's the exact type of player you pay it to.

[WildCard]

The only year ROR has broken the 20g plateau was last year.  Last year his shot% was .37 above where it normally sits meaning that statistically he isn't a 20+ goal scorer.  While his defensive skills are as far as takeaways are impressive, he is averaging 88 a year.  So just a touch over 1 per game.  His giveaways sit at 30 on average which means he is very sound defensively but at what point do these extra defensive skills become superfluous?  How often is 1 takeaway a game making the difference?  Judging by the way hockey works probably not as much as we would like.  

 

If we look at other stats I can see that he starts just over 50% of the time in the defensive zone and for the last 2 years has faced above average competition.  Now looking at his Corsi and Fenqick we can see that mathematically ROR on the ice his team has the puck only 50% of the time so again we are in the middle.  Now I can tell you that ROR is contributing positively to the possession numbers.  So far we can all agree Defensively ROR is a very good player.  

 

Now looking once again at the offense his usage suggests he spends almost no time on the PP.  His pp shots and such are very low, 49 total attempted PP for the entire season.  Why?   Well for one if you watch Ryan O'Reilly his shot is average. He does get the shot through about 62% of the time which is decent.  Just to show what I mean and so you have a bench mark for that, Zemgus is at about 61% of shots getting through.  So ROR is again doing okay but not great.  If we look at his PK stuff, the outlier year for Sh% is also the outlier year for his good PK stuff.  This past year his TOI for pk ice time was only 156.9minutes so this again isn't what he was getting used most.  Most of his time is 5v5 which is fine.  He seems to handle his minutes well and again is right in the middle.  

 

Now if you want we could talk about now stats stuff like his on ice vision, stickhandling, hockey IQ.  Sadly it must be mentioned somewhat.  His on ice vision is above NHL average and he has a decent pass.  His stickhandling IMPO is just okay.  He is a direct kind of guy.  One thing you will notice is ROR makes safe plays.  He in some ways is like Samson in that regard although I think in the end Sammy is smarter.  His skating stride is good but he is a direct skater and you don't see the array of cuts and slashes you might want for a top 3 forward.  That said he is very strong on his skates.  He is good down low at digging the puck out.  He tends to pass first but I feel like there is a lack of creativity there.

 

I feel like that's enough.  It won't prove my point to you and that's fine because we both have decided, but when I look at O'Reilly whether that is during the game or his advanced stats his defensive play if very sound.  It is quite good.  His offensive play is very lackluster.  In truth ROR is like a better defensive version of Pommers but with less offense.

 

If I am going to tie up 8mil, which in todays lack of scoring NHL for a defensive player is questionble, then I have committed that money to someone who at heart is really a nice 2nd line defensive player that will give you 15-20goals a season and around 35a.  

Toews, Kane, Ovechkin, Malkin, Subban, Crosby, Perry, Lundqvist, Giroux, Staal, Getzlaf, Kessel, }{ Weber, Nash, Suter, Parise, Datsyuk, Spezza, Stamkos.  There is your list of players making 7.5mil or more.  Kessel and up make 8mil or more.  Ryan O'Reilly IMPO doesn't belong in that group because he doesn't bring enough to the table on the offensive side to warrant it.

 

Now you have your answer, well basically,  this was superfluous because I am not going to convince you Tank and you aren't going to convince me. I don't think ROR should make more then 7mil and truthfully I would give him 6.5 and not a penny more.  Of course I think you are accurate with how much he will ask for and some team will pay it, but that team will be a big market because I honestly believe that is where he wants to go.  

 

We're done here. 

Not really, I thought this was a really good post. Thanks for the info Liger.