Trade: Chris Stewart to Minnesota Wild

[Wyldnwoody44]

Olean has an Applebee's. And a seven-screen theater. And a Kohl's. And Beef and Barrel. Take it back, Eleven.

And...... Fun times.... With a curling tournament

[Doohicksie]

Also, fwiw and with full warning to those who hate #fancystats, there was informed talk out there about how Stewart was/is, in fact, not very good:

 

 

/high five

 

/another high five

 

 

Funny.  Point to a bunch of stats.  Then call the favorable one a fluke.  Do you believe in stats or not?

 

My feeling on analytics is this:  Past history does not equate to future performance.  Look at CoHo last year and this year... and then look at him again next year.  I bet there is no continuity from one season to the next.  Sports isn't about what the player did before, it's what they're doing right now.  Yes, stats can give you an idea of what a player is capable of, but there too many other factors to follow stats über alles.

[TrueBlueGED]

 

 

Funny.  Point to a bunch of stats.  Then call the favorable one a fluke.  Do you believe in stats or not?

 

My feeling on analytics is this:  Past history does not equate to future performance.  Look at CoHo last year and this year... and then look at him again next year.  I bet there is no continuity from one season to the next.  Sports isn't about what the player did before, it's what they're doing right now.  Yes, stats can give you an idea of what a player is capable of, but there too many other factors to follow stats über alles.

 

This line of thinking is how David Clarkson contracts happen.

[Doohicksie]

Quite possibly.  But you have to admit there's more to a player's future than stats and analytics.  There's no set formula.  The real wizards are the ones who can consult stats but also use traditional scouting to put a team together.  Use all the tools in the toolbox and don't depend on one at the expense of others.

[Andrew Amerk]

Quite possibly. But you have to admit there's more to a player's future than stats and analytics. There's no set formula. The real wizards are the ones who can consult stats but also use traditional scouting to put a team together. Use all the tools in the toolbox and don't depend on one at the expense of others.

Wizards.

[TrueBlueGED]

Quite possibly. But you have to admit there's more to a player's future than stats and analytics. There's no set formula. The real wizards are the ones who can consult stats but also use traditional scouting to put a team together. Use all the tools in the toolbox and don't depend on one at the expense of others.

Absolutely nobody has advocated scouts be replaced by a spreadsheet, and it's disingenuous to say this is a point of contention. But in order for it to be a tool in your tool belt, sometimes you do have to trust them, and your previous post indicates you're not willing to. Why have a power drill if you never trust it over a hand driver to put in a screw?

 

Secondly, past performance measured by statistics absolutely can predict future performance, if your measures are capturing what you think they are. If one player has five crappy years and one good one, and you write off the overall body of work because of that one year, you're looking at it wrong. Sometimes outliers can be real, but you shouldn't go around betting on them. If a player averages 15 goals and a 6% shooting percentage, then one year gets 30 goals with a 12% shooting percentage and you give him a contract worthy of a 30 goal scorer, you're going to lose on that bet way more than you win.

 

Analytics isn't only about statistics, it's a different way of thinking and analysis. Don't get fooled by short term fluctuations or outlying performances, trust in large bodies of work. Find things that people's eyes overvalue, avoid recency bias and the big mistake. The emotional responses sports elicit from fans is the antithesis of analytics, which I honestly believe is a big part of the reason fans (especially older fans) are so resistant.

 

Stats themselves are awesome for helping to see the forest through the trees. They're also great at helping to identify problem areas. But they're of course limited when it comes to finding solutions (this is changing though as stats and video analysis continue to merge). Stays can tell you in what situations certain players succeed or excel, but it's up to video analysis and coaching to determine exactly why, and what if anything can be done about it. Stats can tell a coach if a line isn't working, or if a systemic change they've made has been beneficial. But the stats can't tell a coach which lines to put together if players have no history, or what changes to make to a system to improve possession.

 

I'll always remember Tyler Dellow's article on how the Oilers made an offensive zone alignment change to win more faceoffs when certain players were on the ice, but that change actually resulted in a possession loss. It was a masterpiece (and in my opinion a huge reason then-coach Dallas Eakins pushed to hire Dellow). Point coaches in the right direction and help them evaluate if changes worked or not. Help GMs avoid blunders and find market inefficiencies. These things are what analytics really are, and while I can understand if fans don't have the time or inclination to use/learn them, rejecting their usefulness is at this point just being obtuse...but ultimately it doesn't matter. However, if an organization wholly rejects analytics? Then that's a real problem.

 

I should probably add that even the old school eye test is technically an example of analytics. The data points are what your eyes see and mind interprets/remembers, and that information is then applied to decision making. In its simplest form, that's all the "analytics movement" is, only the information is different. In my view, rejection of "new" analytics or "advanced" stats is simply a rejection of different information and is akin to watching games with your eyes closed and making decisions based on what you hear the announcers say. Information is good, and if new information becomes available, it should be embraced and utilized even if it's different from what you've always known.

Edited March 3, 2015 by TrueBluePhD

[Doohicksie]

tl;dr

 

I just want to watch meaningful Sabres hockey.  I don't really care that much about all that.

[TrueBlueGED]

tl;dr

 

I just want to watch meaningful Sabres hockey. I don't really care that much about all that.

Then perhaps you shouldn't opine the way you did in the initial post I responded to ;)

[Huckleberry]

I think we got a solid return for stewart, didn't expect anything more than a 2nd rounder.

 

Minesota all your second round picks belong to us :p

[Doohicksie]

Then perhaps you shouldn't opine the way you did in the initial post I responded to ;)

 

Yeah prolly.  It's been an exhausting day.

[chileanseabass]

A 2nd is pretty much a 2nd, regardless of the year.  I like that we got a 2017 because it gives us more chips in the future.  We don't need more picks for 2015 or 2016.  When 2017 rolls around and we need a rental, we can use that Minn. pick.  It's all part of the plan.

[carpandean]

I should have put this here instead:

 

Interesting stats:

 

Chris Stewart:

Before New Years: 37GP 5G 5A 10P (0.270 PPG)

After New Years: 24GP 6G 9A 15P (0.625 PPG)

 

Antoine Vermette:

Before New Years: 37GP 10G 15A 25P (0.676 PPG)

After New Years: 26GP 3G 7A 10P (0.385 PPG)

In particular, in March: 14GP 2G 2A 4P (0.286 PPG)

 

Maybe, Vermette was acting Tank Commander in Phoenix Arizona.  If they call up some eager young buck, then perhaps he improves their team.

Edited March 3, 2015 by carpandean

[Stoner]

I know where he lives (Nia. County).  He's more on the level of Vogl--and maybe he's even a little bit better.  It's a shame he's "down there."

What's the difference where he is? He's doing the work and doing it well. You read online. You don't have to slum yourself down to the southern tier to buy the Times Herald from a machine.

And...... Fun times.... With a curling tournament

Annnnnd... we're done. No, Olean's nice. It's where people from Bradford go to live it up.

[nfreeman]

Absolutely nobody has advocated scouts be replaced by a spreadsheet, and it's disingenuous to say this is a point of contention. But in order for it to be a tool in your tool belt, sometimes you do have to trust them, and your previous post indicates you're not willing to. Why have a power drill if you never trust it over a hand driver to put in a screw?

 

Secondly, past performance measured by statistics absolutely can predict future performance, if your measures are capturing what you think they are. If one player has five crappy years and one good one, and you write off the overall body of work because of that one year, you're looking at it wrong. Sometimes outliers can be real, but you shouldn't go around betting on them. If a player averages 15 goals and a 6% shooting percentage, then one year gets 30 goals with a 12% shooting percentage and you give him a contract worthy of a 30 goal scorer, you're going to lose on that bet way more than you win.

 

Analytics isn't only about statistics, it's a different way of thinking and analysis. Don't get fooled by short term fluctuations or outlying performances, trust in large bodies of work. Find things that people's eyes overvalue, avoid recency bias and the big mistake. The emotional responses sports elicit from fans is the antithesis of analytics, which I honestly believe is a big part of the reason fans (especially older fans) are so resistant.

 

Stats themselves are awesome for helping to see the forest through the trees. They're also great at helping to identify problem areas. But they're of course limited when it comes to finding solutions (this is changing though as stats and video analysis continue to merge). Stays can tell you in what situations certain players succeed or excel, but it's up to video analysis and coaching to determine exactly why, and what if anything can be done about it. Stats can tell a coach if a line isn't working, or if a systemic change they've made has been beneficial. But the stats can't tell a coach which lines to put together if players have no history, or what changes to make to a system to improve possession.

 

I'll always remember Tyler Dellow's article on how the Oilers made an offensive zone alignment change to win more faceoffs when certain players were on the ice, but that change actually resulted in a possession loss. It was a masterpiece (and in my opinion a huge reason then-coach Dallas Eakins pushed to hire Dellow). Point coaches in the right direction and help them evaluate if changes worked or not. Help GMs avoid blunders and find market inefficiencies. These things are what analytics really are, and while I can understand if fans don't have the time or inclination to use/learn them, rejecting their usefulness is at this point just being obtuse...but ultimately it doesn't matter. However, if an organization wholly rejects analytics? Then that's a real problem.

 

I should probably add that even the old school eye test is technically an example of analytics. The data points are what your eyes see and mind interprets/remembers, and that information is then applied to decision making. In its simplest form, that's all the "analytics movement" is, only the information is different. In my view, rejection of "new" analytics or "advanced" stats is simply a rejection of different information and is akin to watching games with your eyes closed and making decisions based on what you hear the announcers say. Information is good, and if new information becomes available, it should be embraced and utilized even if it's different from what you've always known.

Good post.

[Hoss]

Annnnnd... we're done. No, Olean's nice. It's where people from Bradford go to live it up.

As someone who was born in Bradford and lived in Olean most of my life... It depresses me to confirm.

[Stoner]

As someone who was born in Bradford and lived in Olean most of my life... It depresses me to confirm.

There's a kind of food chain of towns in the twin tiers. I'd go Erie-Jamestown-Olean-Bradford-Turtlepoint.

[Hoss]

There's a kind of food chain of towns in the twin tiers. I'd go Erie-Jamestown-Olean-Bradford-Turtlepoint.

Jamestown being anywhere but the bottom is funny. That place is just a pit of drugs. They just had to issue a public health warning and the captain literally said "if you're going to do heroin just don't do this kind of heroin" because there was a bad strain of it going around making people overdose.

[Stoner]

Jamestown being anywhere but the bottom is funny. That place is just a pit of drugs. They just had to issue a public health warning and the captain literally said "if you're going to do heroin just don't do this kind of heroin" because there was a bad strain of it going around making people overdose.

I was thinking more along hockey lines. Erie has the Otters and McDavid. Jamestown has a beautiful arena and some kind of junior team. Olean has two men's leagues, including a beginners league. Bradford has men's pickup, but there's often no one to play goal. Turtlepoint has Busty Heart. I hope that clears things up.

[Hoss]

I was thinking more along hockey lines. Erie has the Otters and McDavid. Jamestown has a beautiful arena and some kind of junior team. Olean has two men's leagues, including a beginners league. Bradford has men's pickup, but there's often no one to play goal. Turtlepoint has Busty Heart. I hope that clears things up.

Olean has the Arrows that used to be coached by Terry Pegula himself.

[TrueBlueGED]

Olean has the Arrows that used to be coached by Terry Pegula himself.

The meddling started at an early age I see...

[Stoner]

The meddling started at an early age I see...

I'm at the Olean Times Herald morgue right now. Stay tuned.

[Swedesessed]

I really think the Sabres can compete in 2016-2017: We are in a salary capped NHL, the other unknown of this Sabres roster is: What if the Sabres are lucky enough to land a Connor McDavid...players will notice this and possibly want to play for Buffalo...and with an owner like Pegula, perhaps the time will be right in the 2016 offseason to strike on some UFA's and buy some talent as well.  

 

Calgary and Montreal recently had high picks and turned things around quick: Colorado turned it around quick last season. I believe it can happen sooner then most think.

[SwampD]

I wouldn't mind getting him back after the year. Don't think it's going to happen, though. If he is on our third or fourth line then I'm psyched cuz that means we have a pretty f'n good team. Though too.

 

Also, if you can win with a guy who is "inconsistent" (which is bs), that's a guy who can get hot in the playoffs.

[beerme1]

I really think the Sabres can compete in 2016-2017: We are in a salary capped NHL, the other unknown of this Sabres roster is: What if the Sabres are lucky enough to land a Connor McDavid...players will notice this and possibly want to play for Buffalo...and with an owner like Pegula, perhaps the time will be right in the 2016 offseason to strike on some UFA's and buy some talent as well.  

 

Calgary and Montreal recently had high picks and turned things around quick: Colorado turned it around quick last season. I believe it can happen sooner then most think.

 

Ok so tell me why that cant start 2015-2016 assuming they get McDavid?

[Johnny DangerFace]

Jamestown being anywhere but the bottom is funny. That place is just a pit of drugs. They just had to issue a public health warning and the captain literally said "if you're going to do heroin just don't do this kind of heroin" because there was a bad strain of it going around making people overdose.

 

The way western New York views Jamestown is how the rest of the country views western ny