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Posted

I was looking for others opinions on this topic, how much of a gap do you think there is between picking 1st this year, 2nd, 3rd, and below that.

 

Last year I heard an interview on the radio (Canadian station, not 590 out of Toronto, it was probably an Ottawa or Montreal station as I heard it when driving to Massena, NY) where the hosts were interviewing someone into scouting (may have been an NHL scout on some level) about the difference in talent at the top of this coming draft.)

 

The scout was not saying McDavid, Eichel, or Hannifan will reach the levels of the other players he mentioned. He went on to stress he wasn't even comparing their style of play, but used the examples to show the gap between the top 3 prospects.  I remember most of the article because a friend of mine and I talked a lot about it:

 

McDavid would be comparable to a Crosby or a Gretzky, someone who has the potential to win multiple MVPs and possible be known as the best player in the league.

 

Eichel would be comparable to a Malkin or a Messier, someone with the potential to win an MVP (or maybe 2) in their career and not be known as the best player, but a consistent top 5 player.

 

Hannifan would be like a Shea Weber or a Ray Bourque.  A potential multiple-time Norris trophy winner, but not someone who can carry their team to the finals year after year (mostly because of position.)

 

He went on to say there are a lot of good players in the draft, but there was a sizeable drop-off after the top 3.

 

 

Anyone have any thoughts? Would you make similar comparisons (in terms of talent potential, not style)?  Or do you think those are way off?

Posted

There's 543.1 miles between Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel.

 

 

 

But in all seriousness:

The Crosby (McDavid) to Madano (Eichel) comparisons aren't the crazy. Just about everybody would take Crosby (I would easily). There's a clear separation, according to most, between McDavid and Eichel. But they're still both considered "generational" which separates them from Hanifin and others.

Posted

In terms of status, I expect mcDavid/Eichel/Hanifan to be Crosby/Tavares/Keith.

After that it's less of a sure thing: Marner could be Kane or Ennis, Strome could be Eric Staal or Sam Gagner

Posted

hmm.  Well with how good Provorov has played and depending on the team sitting at #3, I could see that happening but currently do not believe it likely.  Of course on draft day some strange things happen. 

Posted

hmm.  Well with how good Provorov has played and depending on the team sitting at #3, I could see that happening but currently do not believe it likely.  whichever on draft day some strange things happen.

 

Yeah, he's currently ranked 10th in the iss rankings. Like you said the way he played recently is most likely what fueled the article. I agree it's unlikely, however it's good to see guys closing the gap. My guess is whichever defenseman Edmonton prefers is likely to be the defenseman called.

Posted (edited)

Basically, it seems like ...

 

McDavid would have been the consensus #1 pick in any draft since 2005.

Eichel would likely have been the #1 in each, consensus in many, but up for debate in a couple (e.g., 2008).

Hannafin might not have been the #1 pick even last year.

Edited by carpandean
Posted

Hate reading stuff like this as it only gets my hopes up; you can just see it now...

 

"With the Number One overall pick in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft, the Toronto Maple Leafs/Edmonton Oilers select...."

Posted

Hate reading stuff like this as it only gets my hopes up; you can just see it now...

 

"With the Number One overall pick in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft, the Toronto Maple Leafs/Edmonton Oilers select...."

 

I'm fine with that if we get to pick 2nd overall atleast.

Posted (edited)

Hate reading stuff like this as it only gets my hopes up; you can just see it now...

 

"With the Number One overall pick in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft, the Toronto Maple Leafs/Edmonton Oilers select...."

I'm fine with that if we get to pick 2nd overall atleast.

 

Yeah, even in the best case (finish 30th), there's an 80% chance that some other GM is saying, "With the Number One overall pick in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft, the ..."  The question is, whether we are guaranteed to pick 2nd if that happens (finish 30th), have a 23% chance (conditional on not picking first) of picking 2nd (finish 29th) or have no chance of picking 2nd (finish 28th or better.) 

 

As I've stated elsewhere, the chance of getting one of the top two is:

 

30th - 100%

29th - 33.5%

28th - 11.5%

27th - 9.5%

26th - 8.5%

25th - 7.5%

...

Edited by carpandean
Posted (edited)

I was looking for others opinions on this topic, how much of a gap do you think there is between picking 1st this year, 2nd, 3rd, and below that.

 

Last year I heard an interview on the radio (Canadian station, not 590 out of Toronto, it was probably an Ottawa or Montreal station as I heard it when driving to Massena, NY) where the hosts were interviewing someone into scouting (may have been an NHL scout on some level) about the difference in talent at the top of this coming draft.)

 

The scout was not saying McDavid, Eichel, or Hannifan will reach the levels of the other players he mentioned. He went on to stress he wasn't even comparing their style of play, but used the examples to show the gap between the top 3 prospects.  I remember most of the article because a friend of mine and I talked a lot about it:

 

McDavid would be comparable to a Crosby or a Gretzky, someone who has the potential to win multiple MVPs and possible be known as the best player in the league.

 

Eichel would be comparable to a Malkin or a Messier, someone with the potential to win an MVP (or maybe 2) in their career and not be known as the best player, but a consistent top 5 player.

 

Hannifan would be like a Shea Weber or a Ray Bourque.  A potential multiple-time Norris trophy winner, but not someone who can carry their team to the finals year after year (mostly because of position.)

 

He went on to say there are a lot of good players in the draft, but there was a sizeable drop-off after the top 3.

 

 

Anyone have any thoughts? Would you make similar comparisons (in terms of talent potential, not style)?  Or do you think those are way off?

 

 If the Sabres end up with Marner or Hanifin I think they will eventually be a good to great team in a few years. Both are elite talents and will be centrepieces of the organization for the next decade. It will suck not getting a generational talent in McDavid or Eichel but I think they are still set up to be a contender for the cup in a few years (with McDavid or Eichel I think they are going to be a great to dominate team).

 

I wouldn't be suprised if neither Hanifin or Marner plays with the Sabres in 2015-16 and think that though the "tank" would be over they would still be a top contender for one of the top picks in the 2016 Draft.

Edited by Crusader1969
Posted

Can they draft Paul Coffey twice?

 

On that note, when Paul Coffey was 22 years old he scored 126 points (including 40 goals) as a defenseman. He was a +52. He somehow did not win the Norris Trophy that year.

 

On a further note, the NHL needs to look at the stats and watch film from the Oiler 80's. Goalie equipment needs to be resized to that level immediately. The game was so much fun back then, on smaller ice surfaces to boot. In 1985 the LOWEST scoring team scored 266 goals. There were 23 players who scored over 40 goals (including Mike Foligno's 41), 13 players had over 100 points (Gretzky had 215!) Joey Kocur had 377 PIMs. The league leader in shutouts had 5. The best GAA was 2.55. The best save percentage was .909!!! Here's some perspective.  Neuvirth's GAA would be 3rd in the league and his SV% would be the best by a ton. If this were 1985 Michal Neuvirth would walk away with the Vezina with the numbers he has this year. That's totally unacceptable.

 

I was just making that point about the equipment and Garth Snow in another post.  The NHL is so stupid to ruin the wide open play they had back then and if they don't have the guts to resize the goal than resize the equipment.  The game is slowly improving except that they put away the whistles in the playoffs and goalies can make too many saves just playing positional with huge equipment which is much more boring to watch.  Goalie play can be exciting when the goalie has to move to make a great save (Hasak) but otherwise it is boring.  If the NHL could go back to the 80's and make a few changes they would have twice the fans they have now.

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