Hockey Analytics

[darksabre]

They still haven't sent me an email with any details.

Same. I expect we wont hear anything further until maybe the week before, unless registration fills up sooner. 

[josie]

I just wanna say I think it's awesome you guys are doing this. Tell me all about it afterwards :) 

[SwampD]

I just wanna say I think it's awesome you guys are doing this. Tell me all about it afterwards :)

It's funny. I was actually thinking that a little part of me died knowing they are doing this.

[TrueBlueGED]

It's funny. I was actually thinking that a little part of me died knowing they are doing this.

That's because you are to new hockey stats as Drunkard is to new Windows :p

[SwampD]

That's because you are to new hockey stats as Drunkard is to new Windows :P

If advanced stats was only used to choose the players you want on your team I'd be fine with it. When it is used to determine how players play the game, then yes, I think it sucks. Hockey is about skill and passion and doing whatever it takes to win. I don't want to watch a bunch of players out there simply making the safe play and basically just managing risk. I can go to an insurance salesman for that.

[TrueBlueGED]

If advanced stats was only used to choose the players you want on your team I'd be fine with it. When it is used to determine how players play the game, then yes, I think it sucks. Hockey is about skill and passion and doing whatever it takes to win. I don't want to watch a bunch of players out there simply making the safe play and basically just managing risk. I can go to an insurance salesman for that.

Lou Lamoriello and his ilk predate the analytics movement by a couple of decades ;)

[qwksndmonster]

If advanced stats was only used to choose the players you want on your team I'd be fine with it. When it is used to determine how players play the game, then yes, I think it sucks. Hockey is about skill and passion and doing whatever it takes to win. I don't want to watch a bunch of players out there simply making the safe play and basically just managing risk. I can go to an insurance salesman for that.

Hockey is about skill, passion, and risk evaluation.  Every time you make a decision you have to decide to push the envelope offensively or make the safe play (more or less).  

 

And has any player really stopped taking risks to inflate their advanced stats? Seems like BS

[BagBoy]

And has any player really stopped taking risks to inflate their advanced stats? Seems like BS

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if some marginal players have decided to take more shots, even if ill-advised ones, because of fancystats.

[qwksndmonster]

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if some marginal players have decided to take more shots, even if ill-advised ones, because of fancystats.

Marginal players are going to lose ice time realllll quick pulling dumb stunts like that.

[BagBoy]

Marginal players are going to lose ice time realllll quick pulling dumb stunts like that.

In a perfect world, yes. But in a world where coaches and GM's seem to be buying into fancystats more and more each year, on those 50/50 situations players face so often, why wouldn't they shoot?

 

Here's the thing about fancystats for me. If it wants to measure possession statistics, great, I'm on board. But why do it by shots? That's just a proxy for what we actually want, not the real thing. Why in the world isn't anyone tracking ACTUAL time of possession? They have been doing it in soccer for years. It can't be that hard.

Edited September 19, 2015 by BagBoy

[TrueBlueGED]

In a perfect world, yes. But in a world where coaches and GM's seem to be buying into fancystats more and more each year, on those 50/50 situations players face so often, why wouldn't they shoot?

 

Here's the thing about fancystats for me. If it wants to measure possession statistics, great, I'm on board. By why do it by shots? That's just a proxy for what we actually want, not the real thing. Why in the world isn't anyone tracking ACTUAL time of possession? They have been doing it in soccer for years. It can't be that hard.

That sort of tracking is on the way. Look into the SportsVU cameras if you're interested in the specifics.

[qwksndmonster]

In a perfect world, yes. But in a world where coaches and GM's seem to be buying into fancystats more and more each year, on those 50/50 situations players face so often, why wouldn't they shoot?

 

Here's the thing about fancystats for me. If it wants to measure possession statistics, great, I'm on board. But why do it by shots? That's just a proxy for what we actually want, not the real thing. Why in the world isn't anyone tracking ACTUAL time of possession? They have been doing it in soccer for years. It can't be that hard.

Coaches are going to notice when players take dumb shots.  Using statistics as a tool doesn't mean they stop watching the game.  To the bolded: Marginal players throwing more pucks on net doesn't really strike me as something that would shape the game to be less interesting to watch (maybe a little).  Marginal players are usually not very interesting to watch.

Edited September 19, 2015 by immerman

[TrueBlueGED]

Coaches are going to notice when players take dumb shots.  Using statistics as a tool doesn't mean they stop watching the game.  To the bolded: Marginal players throwing more pucks on net doesn't really strike me as something that would shape the game to be less interesting to watch (maybe a little).  Marginal players are usually not very interesting to watch.

 

It's also worth noting that the widespread use of analytics is a big part of the reason we're seeing 4th lines that can play hockey rather than get filled with the John Scotts of the world.

[rakish]

In a perfect world, yes. But in a world where coaches and GM's seem to be buying into fancystats more and more each year, on those 50/50 situations players face so often, why wouldn't they shoot?

 

Here's the thing about fancystats for me. If it wants to measure possession statistics, great, I'm on board. But why do it by shots? That's just a proxy for what we actually want, not the real thing. Why in the world isn't anyone tracking ACTUAL time of possession? They have been doing it in soccer for years. It can't be that hard.

 

This is 100% right.

[Stoner]

That sort of tracking is on the way. Look into the SportsVU cameras if you're interested in the specifics.

Good. Maybe we'll get some good data. And maybe the dweebs will go back to mom's basement. Ma, the meatloaf!

If advanced stats was only used to choose the players you want on your team I'd be fine with it. When it is used to determine how players play the game, then yes, I think it sucks. Hockey is about skill and passion and doing whatever it takes to win. I don't want to watch a bunch of players out there simply making the safe play and basically just managing risk. I can go to an insurance salesman for that.

Well said. You're a musician. Can you imagine trying to quantify jazz to try and make it better?

[dudacek]

Good. Maybe we'll get some good data. And maybe the dweebs will go back to mom's basement. Ma, the meatloaf!

Well said. You're a musician. Can you imagine trying to quantify jazz to try and make it better?

The music reference is a good one. All music can be broken down into math and the theory can be useful.

But ultimately has to pass the ear test.

[Eleven]

The music reference is a good one. All music can be broken down into math and the theory can be useful.

But ultimately has to pass the ear test.

 

Which is why Schoenberg.

 

I don't know enough about analytics to decide whether I like it or not yet.  I want to go so I can learn.

[qwksndmonster]

The music reference is a good one. All music can be broken down into math and the theory can be useful.

But ultimately has to pass the ear test.

The safest play in music: The two chord jam.

[SwampD]

Good. Maybe we'll get some good data. And maybe the dweebs will go back to mom's basement. Ma, the meatloaf!

Well said. You're a musician. Can you imagine trying to quantify jazz to try and make it better?

I'm sure there is a computer analyzing a Coltrane solo somewhere.

 

The music reference is a good one. All music can be broken down into math and the theory can be useful.

But ultimately has to pass the ear test.

More importantly, the feel test. Someone can be playing all the right notes and it can sound Gawd awful.

 

 

The idea of risk management, to me, just screams Boring Hockey! I really don't want to see hockey turn into baseball, which is unwatchable, due to the risk management factor: "Hey, this guy is a lefty so we better change the pitcher because on Tuesdays against righties when the weather is fair he hits doubles when there is a guy in scoring positions blah blah blah,..." ugh.

[qwksndmonster]

I'm sure there is a computer analyzing a Coltrane solo somewhere.

 

More importantly, the feel test. Someone can be playing all the right notes and it can sound Gawd awful.

 

 

The idea of risk management, to me, just screams Boring Hockey! I really don't want to see hockey turn into baseball, which is unwatchable, due to the risk management factor: "Hey, this guy is a lefty so we better change the pitcher because on Tuesdays against righties when the weather is fair he hits doubles when there is a guy in scoring positions blah blah blah,..." ugh.

North American hockey is all about risk management, though.  We teach a simple game, and tell our players to go hard and grind it out.  I'd rather watch players take more risks and try to complete more fancy passes.

[ubkev]

I'm sure there is a computer analyzing a Coltrane solo somewhere.

 

More importantly, the feel test. Someone can be playing all the right notes and it can sound Gawd awful.

 

 

The idea of risk management, to me, just screams Boring Hockey!

Boring, huh? Like the past 15 years of no scoring? When I was 8 years old, 2 guys, TWO! Scored 76 goals! My son will never get to experience anything like that thanks to Jacques Lemaire ruining hockey and the NHL doing nothing about it.

[Stoner]

Boring, huh? Like the past 15 years of no scoring? When I was 8 years old, 2 guys, TWO! Scored 76 goals! My son will never get to experience anything like that thanks to Jacques Lemaire ruining hockey and the NHL doing nothing about it.

Here's the thing though. If hockey is going to take almost an industrial approach to making systems more efficient, to squeeze every last drop of productivity out of its human capital (I read the WSJ, I am smart), do you think it's going to lead to more or less scoring? It's gotta be less IMO. Also IMO analytics could be the death of this sport.

[ubkev]

Here's the thing though. If hockey is going to take almost an industrial approach to making systems more efficient, to squeeze every last drop of productivity out of its human capital (I read the WSJ, I am smart), do you think it's going to lead to more or less scoring? It's gotta be less IMO. Also IMO analytics could be the death of this sport.

I'm pretty sure I'm with you on this one.

[TrueBlueGED]

Here's the thing though. If hockey is going to take almost an industrial approach to making systems more efficient, to squeeze every last drop of productivity out of its human capital (I read the WSJ, I am smart), do you think it's going to lead to more or less scoring? It's gotta be less IMO. Also IMO analytics could be the death of this sport.

I just don't understand how you, or anyone else, lay the blame for this at the feet of analytics. Coaches have been focusing on defensive, limited-time hockey in order to minimize the effects of the skill gap between teams for as long as I've been a fan. Analytics may increase the efficiency of the process, but it's hardly new.

[Stoner]

I'm pretty sure I'm with you on this one.

Wow, and I really pulled that one out of my ass. But seriously, I just don't see how analytics will help to turn the game into what a lot of us crave... more space, more creativity, more goals, more speed, maybe more mistakes, definitely more fun.

I just don't understand how you, or anyone else, lay the blame for this at the feet of analytics. Coaches have been focusing on defensive, limited-time hockey in order to minimize the effects of the skill gap between teams for as long as I've been a fan. Analytics may increase the efficiency of the process, but it's hardly new.

I'm not blaming analytics exclusively by any means. It'll make existing problems worse. "Build a better mousetrap." Sucks to be the mouse.