Hockey Analytics

[Stoner]

When does this day come?

 

Scoreboard? That's such an antiquated, primitive notion. The smarty-pants can tell you who really won the game. After all, the score is just an eye test, an imprecise representation of how each team played in totality relative to one another. Surely, there has to be a better way.

[Wraith]

Regarding possession, there is room for debate. Reasonable people can debate how to measure possession. Is it best measured by shots directed at the goal? That's not why Corsi came up with it. And it took some dweeb in Edmonton hearing Darcy talking about Corsi's stat to come up with the idea for measuring possession that way. Seems fairly Scotch-taped together. Then, the kicker is that the data is suspect. Everyone knows that. What's the value of the product of a shaky philosophy and bad data?

 

I'm looking forward to the NHL chip thingie so we can have a precise idea of possession time, so the nerds can go back to heating up Hot Pockets and watching War Games. (Running out of snark.)

 

Curious that you think the better data from the NHL will remove the need for the stats nerds. The fact that the NHL is even doing this is due to the success of the stats nerds within the NHL and the other professional sports and the result will be even more work for them with a wealth of new information. Edited February 19, 2015 by Wraith

[That Aud Smell]

When does this day come?

 

Scoreboard? That's such an antiquated, primitive notion. The smarty-pants can tell you who really won the game. After all, the score is just an eye test, an imprecise representation of how each team played in totality relative to one another. Surely, there has to be a better way.

Never say never.

 

That said: Never.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

When does this day come?

 

Scoreboard? That's such an antiquated, primitive notion. The smarty-pants can tell you who really won the game. After all, the score is just an eye test, an imprecise representation of how each team played in totality relative to one another. Surely, there has to be a better way.

 

 

Did I mention that I don't like all this voodoo science.

[Claude_Verret]

Never say never.

 

That said: Never.

 

Yes, especially since analytics have been and always will be about getting a better understanding of how and why the final score is what it is.

[MattPie]

Absolutely. Unlike traditional delivery methods, netflix has the ability to parse the minute by minute viewing habits of it's customers. Think of how powerful that can be. I hope Terry's Analytics department finally comes to the conclusion that what we really want are Stanley's and Lombardi's. I imagine they'll screw something up and will end up with an old Kubrick screenplay starring Vince Vaughn. 

 

Why would you think that fancy DVR (or plain digital cable box) under your TV isn't reporting the same info back? The only way you're not contributing to recorded viewing habits is if you're watching over the air or on an SD TV using the tuner.

[woods-racer]

There very well may be something with Miller's game that causes his struggles with shots from farther out, but to me Drane's impaired depth perception theory doesn't hold water simply because that problem should have the reverse effect in terms of shot distance.  As someone who is legally blind in one eye  I can tell you that if you lightly toss me a baseball from five feet away, it will be a crapshoot as to whether or not I'll catch it.  But throw me a heater from 60'6" and I'll catch it every single time.

A little off the cuff here, a goalie is often considered cerebral, so does Miller rely on his "minds eye" to follow play in close as he has that great ability. But out further were he must use gut instincts and cat like reactions from  point shots, he is below average. Sounds goofy as I'm typing it, but we all see he struggles with what we think are routine shots.

Edited February 19, 2015 by Woods-Racer

[SwampD]

A little off the cuff here, a goalie is often considered cerebral, so does Miller rely on his "minds eye" to follow play in close as he has that great ability. But out further were he must use gut instincts and cat like reactions from  point shots, he is below average. Sounds goofy as I'm typing it, but we all see he struggles with what we think are routine shots.

I think that is kinda correct. I think he may not have the best reflexes of any goalie, but he is so smart and thinks the game so well that he makes up for it. It's why when he is at his best, he's really boring, because he is always where is is supposed to be and doesn't need to make that circus save.

[Stoner]

Curious that you think the better data from the NHL will remove the need for the stats nerds. The fact that the NHL is even doing this is due to the success of the stats nerds within the NHL and the other professional sports and the result will be even more work for them with a wealth of new information.

Probably. But I imagine the NHL will develop an official time of possession stat and that will make Corsi obsolete, since the idea of Corsi is to try and deduce possession time from certain events on the ice.

[That Aud Smell]

I think that is kinda correct. I think he may not have the best reflexes of any goalie, but he is so smart and thinks the game so well that he makes up for it. It's why when he is at his best, he's really boring, because he is always where is is supposed to be and doesn't need to make that circus save.

 

Never realized how much I agree with this sentiment. A *lot* of his game is about positioning, planning.

[Hoss]

Did anybody see the news about NHL.com?

 

They're introducing a new site tomorrow and it will feature two new stats: Corsi and Fenwick, except they'll be called "shots attempted" and "unblocked shots" in an attempt to help fans understand them more.

[IKnowPhysics]

Good.  More stuff to dick around with, especially if it's updated nightly like the other stats.

 

I'm waiting for them publicly rank GVS.

[Brawndo]

Not sure if this has been mentioned, but Travis Yost from TSN Analytics was on with Schopp and the Bulldog and mentioned that he knows Tim Murray was one of the first executives in a player personnel dept to embrace analytics going back to 2011

[BagBoy]

I have a very basic question on this subject. Has anyone done any analysis to show that the Corsi stat is statistically superior to plain old shots on goal (SOG) in terms of correlating to success? I don’t think proponents of the Corsi have a leg to stand on without that evidence, and I’ve never seen any.

 

And here’s another question. If the premise is to use stats to somehow back into time of possession, then why in the heck are faceoffs not factored into that equation?

[carpandean]

I have a very basic question on this subject. Has anyone done any analysis to show that the Corsi stat is statistically superior to plain old shots on goal (SOG) in terms of correlating to success? I don’t think proponents of the Corsi have a leg to stand on without that evidence, and I’ve never seen any.

 

And here’s another question. If the premise is to use stats to somehow back into time of possession, then why in the heck are faceoffs not factored into that equation?

 

I don't have the actual studies to point you to, but the short answers are: (1) yes, including more than just shots that reach the goal and/or goalie has been shown to be a better indicator, and (2) faceoffs have been shown to have little effect on possession (it's very short lived, as good puck possession teams get it back quickly when they lose one, bad puck possession teams give it up quickly when they win one.)

Edited February 20, 2015 by carpandean

[That Aud Smell]

Not sure if this has been mentioned, but Travis Yost from TSN Analytics was on with Schopp and the Bulldog and mentioned that he knows Tim Murray was one of the first executives in a player personnel dept to embrace analytics going back to 2011

 

This is interesting because TM was cagey about his feelings toward #fancystats when he arrived in town. He went through this thing with White at WGR where he called them "useful," but then went on to say that, the more you know about the game, the less useful the stats become (and the less you know, the more the stats can tell you). It sorta seemed like he was throwing them some shade. Maybe not. Maybe he was just being super honest, as he so often is.

 

I don't have the actual studies to point you to, but the short answers are: (1) yes, including more than just shots that reach the goal and/or goalie has been shown to be a better indicator, and (2) faceoffs have been shown to have little effect on possession (it's very short lived, as good puck possession teams get it back quickly when they lose one, bad puck possession teams give it up quickly when they win one.)

 

As for #1, I recall reading (well, not entirely reading) a long-form piece a while back that explained in great (excruciating) detail why *all* the shots are a better indicator of a team's play than just the SOG. A few Google searches did not return the piece, though.

[Stoner]

OK, I'll play along. (I'm not actually so virulently anti-analytics as it might seem, I just tend to hate what Corsi has become.) What about an old-fashioned stopwatch? Measure possession by how long the puck is in either offensive zone, no matter who is controlling it.

[Samson's Flow]

OK, I'll play along. (I'm not actually so virulently anti-analytics as it might seem, I just tend to hate what Corsi has become.) What about an old-fashioned stopwatch? Measure possession by how long the puck is in either offensive zone, no matter who is controlling it.

Isn't this how they used to do it in soccer matches? Time of possession has been a metric for strong play for that sport for as long as I can remember.

[Claude_Verret]

I'm not sure why some find it so hard to believe that the statisticians have come up with some pretty accurate statistical models to describe the sport of hockey.  I've come across papers in my time where there biostatisticians have developed accurate statistical models for far more complex biological pathways and processes like receptor mediated endocytosis or isothermal PCR reactions.  The hockey analytics thing is not a huge stretch. 

[TrueBlueGED]

OK, I'll play along. (I'm not actually so virulently anti-analytics as it might seem, I just tend to hate what Corsi has become.) What about an old-fashioned stopwatch? Measure possession by how long the puck is in either offensive zone, no matter who is controlling it.

Why should a team be credited with possession when they don't have the puck? The whole point of measuring possession is to know who is controlling the play, and what players are best at it. I don't see a particularly good reason to "penalize" a team that is simply regrouping in its own end during a line change or whatever.

[That Aud Smell]

The NHL formally embraces #fancystats

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/revamped-nhl-website-to-track-enhanced-stats/article23107412/

 

Move along, folks.

[woods-racer]

Why should a team be credited with possession when they don't have the puck? The whole point of measuring possession is to know who is controlling the play, and what players are best at it. I don't see a particularly good reason to "penalize" a team that is simply regrouping in its own end during a line change or whatever.

Same as kicking back to goalie in soccer, is time of possession then really time of control no matter what end of the rink?

[That Aud Smell]

What about an old-fashioned stopwatch? Measure possession by how long the puck is in either offensive zone, no matter who is controlling it.

You might not do that because the numbers you'd come up with would have little to no value.

[Hoss]

OK, I'll play along. (I'm not actually so virulently anti-analytics as it might seem, I just tend to hate what Corsi has become.) What about an old-fashioned stopwatch? Measure possession by how long the puck is in either offensive zone, no matter who is controlling it.

I've actually been thinking that they should do this once they get more into tracking the puck movements and player movements. Track how much time the luck was in all three zones for each game.

[That Aud Smell]

I've actually been thinking that they should do this once they get more into tracking the puck movements and player movements. Track how much time the luck was in all three zones for each game.

They will be able to track a whole lotta stuff once the chips are installed.

 

It's player-/team-possession numbers that will benefit the most. The chips in the jerseys will be talking to chips in the pucks, and voila, unimpeachable possession numbers. Probably given in real time, at some point. Shoot. There will soon be a running scroll of it on the bottom your TV screen.