How long before prospects start to produce?

[mjd1001]

Just looking at the point leaders and goal leaders this year (top 10 in each category) and a couple things stand out:

 

-about half of the players that are in the league leaders were top 1-2 or at least top 5 picks in their draft.

 

-The other half, for the most part, are first round picks (Pavelski the current exception)

 

That isn't really the interesting thing.  Look at guys who are in the league leaders, but not top 1-3 picks (Vorecek, Giroux, Tarasenko, Pavelski, Pacioretti, Tatar) and one thing is very noticable.  All of them didn't become stars, or even somewhat reliable point producers, until 4-6 years AFTER their draft year.

 

So, how can we equate this to the Sabres?  Armia may be ready for the Sabres next year, same for Grigorenko.  But you really can't expect either to be 'stars' or even consistent scorers until they are 22-24 years old.  Renhart may be here next year,but I wouldn't expect him to be a reliable point producer until he is at least 20-21 at the earliest, maybe later.  There is going to be a large number of young, talented players on the Sabres in the next year or two, but I really don't think you can consider them a team that is going to go far in the playoffs for at LEAST another 2-3 years. This turn-around is not going to be as quick as many hope, but it will happen.

[IKnowPhysics]

Pro level analysis:

 

It depends.

[LGR4GM]

typically 3-5 years.

[dudacek]

If we get McDavid, he is a Crosby, and Murray acquires some good NHLers to complement him, we should be better next year, and could be in the playoff hunt in two years.

If we get Eichel and count on the development of the young guys already in the system we are least three years away from seeing any results.

 

Remember, even though some guy contribute early, forwards typically take 3 or 4 years to hit their stride. and defencemen take 5.

And the only young guy we have that actually should be in the NHL right now is Zemgus.

[apuszczalowski]

There is no amount of time, it all depends on the player/person. Some players can step in and contribute earlier then others who can take years. It can also depend on the team and the situation the team puts the player in. Usually the player takes longer if they are thrown into a spot where Lot is expected from them compared to a player who is not expected to be a big producer immediately