Tim Murray - Poor Spender? - Cap Jail?

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

With everyone being grumpy about Tank vs. No Tank, and the pretty much hopeless performance of the team, I got to thinking and looking......

 

The Sabres are paying $40 million to their "Top 9" skaters. 6 forwards and 3 Dmen are making $4-5 million. That is 60% of the cap right there, and a cap, thanks to the deflationary spiral and strong dollar, that may not increase much, if at all in the near future.

 

Tim Murray is responsible for 6 of those 9 players.

 

What are these guys actually worth? The team has used buyouts and are limited in that regard. Stafford and Stewart are pending UFAs, but what are they really worth? Stewart a low #1 at best or a prospect with some hope.....Stafford, a #2?

 

Besides Stafford, Hodgson and Myers are to Darcy's record. Hodgson.....can you get any value for him at this point? Maybe a struggling role player who was thought to have potential at one point much like himself? Myers has actual value, but how much is being debated. It seems as if his high end worth is a recent player taken in the mid 1st round, and another future draft pick.

 

Then we have Mess....who can walk, so no problem.....Gorges, who is on a long term deal and hopefully dealing with an injury to explain his pedestrian performance recently.....Mess is worthless.....Gorges, maybe you get a McNabb or Pysyk type prospect in return for him at the deadline from a contender with a 2nd or 3rd thrown in.

 

At forward, Murray is responsible for Ennis. He tries hard and has some value in a trade, but in all honesty, he's a 3rd line player or 2nd line trinket on a good team. Pretty much Mason Raymond who gives a crap.

 

Then you have Gionta. Nice attempt, but now you are locked in to a guy who seems to have jumped the shark. Does he have any trade value with that contract?

 

Moulson......still may have a bunch left, but doesn't show well when your top center is a Latvian grinder. You could probably still get something ok back in a deal, but the worst team in the league paid him the most $$ which probably means he is on an overvalued contract by definition.

 

Where does it leave this team going forward? You still have close to $30 million a year going to Hodgson, Gionta, Ennis, Moulson, Gorges, and Myers going forward.

Even if Stafford, Stewart and Mess come off the books, what is the net return? Two 2nd round picks?

 

 

I like Murray and think he has a real shot to show good things, but given the current performance, I am having a hard time seeing how critical mass can be reached in the next 3-4 years to have a true contending team. Even if guys like Girgs, Grigs, Risto, Zadorov all progress at great clips, and they get one of the Big 2 this June, you are still tied to a lot of dead weight and mediocre top line talent that as their contracts expire, the young guys will be replacing their salaries with big contracts.

 

In reality, I have a hard time seeing a true contender until 5 years out. The only way it happens sooner is if Tim Murray is a top 5% GM and the picks and prospects he brings in his first 2 years hit at an amazing rate.

[tom webster]

They are not even close to cap jail. Ennis' contract is designed to be an easy move as the actual salary declines to $3.65 in the last two years. Gionta's and Moulson's deals are similar in that their actual salary declines in the final two years.

You will have several first and second year players on entry level deals for at least the next two years and even with the cap not going up as much as expected, there will be a significant jump in the next couple of years.

The only bad contract on the books is Cody's and that may be bought out in the summer.

[PromoTheRobot]

I thought we had to scramble just to reach the cap floor before the season?

[inkman]

I thought we had to scramble just to reach the cap floor before the season?

There was never any question about it. Tim Murray laughed off questions pertaining to it.

[I am Defecting]

Poor Spender? yes. Cap Jail? yes.

 

We've over-paid for what we have, and will sell them at a loss? Yes.

 

We can't even buy the expensive stuff because it finds us revolting? Hmmm.

 

It's like a riddle. We can't even buy the expensive stuff because it finds us revolting... I've got it! Stafford 2 yrs. 30 million!

 

[IKnowPhysics]

No.

[I am Defecting]

No.

 

Are you quoting Brad Richards?

[IKnowPhysics]

I was quoting Glen Sather on if he had to do it over again whether he'd sign Brad Richards.

[Hoss]

Cody Hodgson is the only definitive bad contract on this team. Anybody else with an unreasonable cap hit is off the books after this season. Gionta's impact to this team was never really supposed to be on the ice and who knows what he can do for the young group we'll have next season. Myers is up and down, but he's an extremely desirable asset. Moulson will most definitely perform once with capable line mates.

 

Gorges? His cap hit isn't crazy and he could be traded. This team is in a perfect situation cap-wise.

[I am Defecting]

Cody Hodgson is the only definitive bad contract on this team. Anybody else with an unreasonable cap hit is off the books after this season. Gionta's impact to this team was never really supposed to be on the ice and who knows what he can do for the young group we'll have next season. Myers is up and down, but he's an extremely desirable asset. Moulson will most definitely perform once with capable line mates.

 

Gorges? His cap hit isn't crazy and he could be traded. This team is in a perfect situation cap-wise.

 

Sekera scored as many points last year, after being traded, as our leading point scorer.

 

Let that sink in.

 

Our leading point scorer was Cody Hodgson... get that through your noggin...

 

We traded the players as stated, and are grateful for Girgs, and Rismo, Zads, and Grigo.

 

If there is a benchmark, it is Darcy's 05-06 campaign. Laugh your loudest at Darcy, but you'll spend the next ten years trying to emulate him. Who laughs loudest?

[Hoss]

 

 

Sekera scored as many points last year, after being traded, as our leading point scorer.

 

Let that sink in.

 

Our leading point scorer was Cody Hodgson... get that through your noggin...

 

We traded the players as stated, and are grateful for Girgs, and Rismo, Zads, and Grigo.

 

If there is a benchmark, it is Darcy's 05-06 campaign. Laugh your loudest at Darcy, but you'll spend the next ten years trying to emulate him. Who laughs loudest?

 

I let it all sink in. I still feel the same.

[I am Defecting]

I let it all sink in. I still feel the same.

 

05-06... it's the small pieces.

 

We'd have won with Mike Grier and better luck in 06-07.

 

But we were missing Grier, which led to a lot of fallout.

 

Letting Grier walk was the beginning of the tank, imo.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

05-06... it's the small pieces.

 

We'd have won with Mike Grier and better luck in 06-07.

 

But we were missing Grier, which led to a lot of fallout.

 

Letting Grier walk was the beginning of the tank, imo.

 

Grier, Dumont, McKee, Pyatt.........that was the plug on the scummy ringed bathtub of #blueprint being pulled.......

[I am Defecting]

It's a big HOLY CRAP between now and then.

 

Grier, Dumont, McKee, Pyatt.........that was the plug on the scummy ringed bathtub of #blueprint being pulled.......

 

Those were major pieces.

[TrueBlueGED]

All of the bad contracts on this team are either short term and will be gone by the time we need the money (young stars leaving ELCs or bridge deals) or were signed by Darcy. Murray may or may not be good at managing the cap, but nothing about the current roster construction would point in that direction. We simply don't know yet. Even Ennis, who obviously isn't your type of player...look around the league, he's making what that caliber of player makes. You don't have to like it, but you do have to recognize reality in that regard. Want a nice 40-50 point winger? Be prepared to pay $4 million+.

 

As to your point on the percentage of the cap our top-9 skaters are getting, I think this is the way the league is trending. Since the CBA eliminated backdiving contracts, the elite are getting $9m+, greats $7m+, and good around $6m. In other words, spending is going to be increasingly skewed towards the top of the roster. Would you rather keep Kane and Toews together and have to find a cheaper replacement for Leddy, or lose one of your elite players to keep Leddy and hope you can get some cheaper replacement for Kane? I think most teams will opt to keep their top guys and hope they can find value to fill in the blanks. These are the choices that will be more common going forward, especially if cap growth slows. And I really don't want to turn this into an analytics debate, but this is where they will really come into play: being able to find undervalued commodities which fit into a top-heavy salary structure.

[Byebye]

They are not even close to cap jail. Ennis' contract is designed to be an easy move as the actual salary declines to $3.65 in the last two years. Gionta's and Moulson's deals are similar in that their actual salary declines in the final two years.

You will have several first and second year players on entry level deals for at least the next two years and even with the cap not going up as much as expected, there will be a significant jump in the next couple of years.

The only bad contract on the books is Cody's and that may be bought out in the summer.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but compliance buyouts are over and done with. I don't see a regular buyout happening with Hodgson.

[Taro T]

 

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but compliance buyouts are over and done with. I don't see a regular buyout happening with Hodgson.

Pretty sure that Glass was the 1st here to propose CH could be bought out and the reasoning is sound. He's young enough to qualify for a 1/3 buyout rather than the typical 2/3. He has underperformed enough this year to make it a very likely prospect.

[IKnowPhysics]

We're 5th in cap space at $10.433M. We have more than $20M in UFAs potentially coming off the books (a little less if you don't count the goalies).

[MattPie]

There's stirring the pot, and there's stirring the pot. This is a latter. :)

 

Murray hasn't given out what I'd consider a bad contract yet. Gorges and Gionta could become questionable depending on which way they trend, but they'd have to get a lot worse before I'd worry.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

I'm trying to rectify the time it will take from being a historically horrific team, to the time that you can say this will be a legit, Top 8 team with 12-1 or better odds to win the Cup.

 

Under this structure as-is, there is a honeypot of a chance 3-4 years out.

 

Unless you have an amazing strike rate of prospects that develop at lightning speed.......where are you going to obtain top level NHL talent in a trade for any of your top 9 players under contract?

 

If you wait for Girgs, Risto, Zadorov, Grig, Samuel to be actual top 9 players on a top team, you are realistically talking 3-4 years away from that progress.....at which time, they will be knocking on UFA contract status.

 

I'm having a very hard time finding this equation being successful given the culture of suck, the open market worthlessness of your top 9 contract skaters, and the gap needing to be filled.

 

I feel like watching this franchise, I am watching Bruce Willis with a 2 hour window to blow up an asteroid before it hits earth. I'm not saying Tim Murray is bad.......I like his honesty and eye........but he needs to be Top 5 in the league type of good to turn this into a viable group.

[X. Benedict]

Just checking....we are worried about Murray's ability to manage the cap?

 

This is somewhere right after the quality of the FNCs coffee creamers in my world of worry.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

That's right ladies, I'm eligible. And I'll play for whatever Buffalo team we field in '15 in OP, so long as we tank, together, as one.

 

City folks just don't get it.

 

Sabrespace bachelor auction.......

 

I wish I could work the land. I'm too John Candy. Had a bunch of mares and babies at a farm, and they had a lil' cattle yearling there. I would pet him and talk to him, and named him Sparky. Later in the year i got a package in the mail. It was 3 lbs of jerkey with a note written in The Shining style...."Heeeere's Sparky!"

 

I am a sinner.

[I am Defecting]

Sabrespace bachelor auction.......

 

I wish I could work the land. I'm too John Candy. Had a bunch of mares and babies at a farm, and they had a lil' cattle yearling there. I would pet him and talk to him, and named him Sparky. Later in the year i got a package in the mail. It was 3 lbs of jerkey with a note written in The Shining style...."Heeeere's Sparky!"

 

I am a sinner.

 

You are SO Dostoevsky.

 

I call Olesha.

 

PA can try to be all Solzhenitsyn..

 

Lots of BIG pieces to fill..

 

I'm also a little partial to Tolstoy once I grow up.

[Neo]

Nikolai Gogol, Dead Souls, caps, barter, value. GoDD, Yuri, this thread. Synthesis.

[I am Defecting]

Nikolai Gogol, Dead Souls, caps, barter, value. GoDD, Yuri, this thread. Synthesis.

 

Gogol is a big one. Neo, you have a lot of credibility. You're definitely Gorky, with more staying power, 'cause you've outlasted Stalin. Gogol is huge. The mere mention of his name makes Yuri cringe, because he's like the prose version of Shakespeare in Russian.

 

Mind you, Shakespeare is like New York City. Gogol is like Moscow. Pushkin is St. Petersburg, somehow someway eclipsing the Capitol. Olesha is nothing. Bzdorzhzo. Someday maybe something.