The Charts (2014-15 Edition)

[SwampD]

I like the new Shart Chart.

[carpandean]

I have one suggestion: Could you multiply the data by (-1)?

 

I think it would better provide a CHL/Tank feel to the graph.

 

I made it, but in looking back at the original, I kinda like the bottom of the sea feel that it has.

[darksabre]

The Leafs are falling.

[LastPommerFan]

I made it, but in looking back at the original, I kinda like the bottom of the sea feel that it has.

I just want to feel like we're winning something.

[carpandean]

Sabres now need to win out in order to reach the 93-point pace axis.

[IKnowPhysics]

Tankrection confirmed.

[shrader]

Carp, have you considered removing the x-axis from your new chart? It can be a bit cluttered with the team logos, the dotted line and the axis.

[carpandean]

Carp, have you considered removing the x-axis from your new chart? It can be a bit cluttered with the team logos, the dotted line and the axis.

 

I hadn't, but I actually just realized that the 65-point line doesn't belong there, anyway.  That should unclutter things a bit.

[Assquatch]

Flip yo monitor upside-ass.

 

First thing in quite some time I've read on here that made me literally lol.

[Doohicksie]

Update?

[carpandean]

Update?

 

Done.  The gap (for equal games played) is exactly the same versus Edmonton as was at the trade deadline and actually could widen in the Sabres' game-in-hand after the Oilers won last night.  Verus the Coyotes, the gap is one point wider, but that could narrow in the Sabres' game-in-hand after the Coyotes lost last night.  It's looking more and more like those two head-to-heads could decide our fate.

[carpandean]

Anyone doubting the McEichel effect need only look at my Tank chart to be convinced.  I picked the 65-point line because (if I remember correctly), all but one 30th-place team since the 2004-05 lockout had finished below it and (more importantly) only one non-30th team had finished below it.  It is looking like there could be four teams below it this year.

 

We're still below last year, but it's getting close.  They finished 1-7-2 in the final 10 last season, which would actually guarantee them 30th this year too, since it would mean that Arizona would have won one of their head-to-heads.

Edited March 22, 2015 by carpandean

[Doohicksie]

Depends.  Who has the tie breaker?

[carpandean]

Depends.  Who has the tie breaker?

 

Wouldn't matter.  If the Sabres went 1-7-2, then they would have 47+4 = 51 points, while the Coyotes would have at least 50+2 = 52 points.  Now, if they go 2-8-0 with both wins coming in regulation to the Coyotes, then Arizona could finish lower (51 vs. 50 if they lose out). 

 

If some combination were to leave them tied in points, then the Coyotes currently have a four ROW lead in the first tie-breaker.  If the Sabres manage to win four more in regulation than the Coyotes, then I don't see them finishing with as few points as them (would put them at 55+ points), especially if two of those ROW are the head-to-head games.  So, for all practical purposes, I would say that the Sabres will have the tie-breaker, if it matters.

 

I don't see the Coyotes picking up more than 3 points in their seven non-head-to-head games, so assuming two regulation Sabres wins in the h-t-h's, they can't afford to pick up more than a point or two (if even that) in their remaining 8 n-h-t-h games.  I hope that I'm surprised in the h-t-h's (even if that just means two OT/SO wins), because otherwise they're probably screwed.

[carpandean]

I just realized that they passed last year.  In fact, unless they lose out (wouldn't that be nice*), they won't match last years badness. 

 

 

 

 

* My ideal would actually be four regulation losses, then close out the season with a win (would not affect 30th.)

[shrader]

I haven't checked these out in a while.  It's amazing to see how the Sabre and Leaf lines have been nearly parallel for quite a while now.

[Taro T]

Not sure where to post this, but this seemed as good as any.

 

W/ the Sabres finishing w/ 54 points and 8th in the East being clinched w/ 98; here's today's sobering thought. IF 98 ends up what it takes for 8th (and that is my normal target to lock a playoff spot (6 wins every 10 games, split games 81 & 82 => 98)), the Sabres could win 20 more games next year and still fall 2 wins shy.

 

They'll be a LOT better next year and should be in the mix for playoffs, but if they actually get there we'll know the winners of 3 trophies: RoY: McEichel, Jack Adams: Sabres coach, & GMoY: Murray. Here's to hoping for 22+ more W's in '15-'16. :beer:

[TrueBlueGED]

I guess I'd be surprised if 98 points is the cutoff again. That's what, 2.5 wins above the historical average?

[Taro T]

I guess I'd be surprised if 98 points is the cutoff again. That's what, 2.5 wins above the historical average?

96 is typically safe, but pretty sure 98's never missed. Too lethargic to bother re-looking that up now. And w/ 1 extra team on this side of the bracket, it might be reasonable to expect 8th would be tougher to reach typically going forward.

 

But even if 96 or 95 ends up turning the trick, 20 extra W's still doesn't get it done.

Edited April 12, 2015 by Taro T

[carpandean]

Season (series for Tanks) finale charts posted.  Input sheet overview:

 

 

As for the playoff target line, I definitely think that this year was an outlier.  Too many teams giving away points at the bottom (an extreme year on that end, too.)  I have it set at 93 and it's usually not off (in either direction) by more than a point or two.

 

Edit: by quick count, three teams with 9 wins in the second half of the season (of note is that Sabres had 14 in the first half, Coyotes had 15, but the Maple Leafs had 21!)

Edited April 14, 2015 by carpandean