X. Benedict Posted January 18, 2015 Report Posted January 18, 2015 But if Hodgson or Roy is a 6.5/10 on a good team.....and a 3/10 on a bad one......even if McDavid is a 10/10.....and that will probably take 5 years to see.....why won't he be a 6.5/10 and maybe add 5 points in the standings to this team? I'm not arguing individual talent. I'm just really thinking that the fly paper is way too sticky for this franchise right now. A 3 standard deviation in acceleration of improvement probably puts the team in 10th place. huh?
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted January 18, 2015 Report Posted January 18, 2015 huh? Let's put it this way. Take Kiko Alonso as an example. Some fancystats place said that by him being out for the year, it equated to 1/3 less of a win for the Bills for an entire season. If Kiko is 1/11 guys on the field for 30 minutes a game.....for 16 games......he is 4.5% of the output in talent which influences record. Over the course of 82 games, Kiko would project to 1 2/3 more wins for the Bills. On a hockey basis, 3 points. Say McDavid plays 20-22 minutes a game. He is 1/5. That equates to 7% of output of talent which influences record. If McDavid at 18 plays at the level against men which Kiko did in the NFL at 22....it projects to just under 3 wins.....or 6 points. Kiko was pretty much in the talk for rookie of the year the whole year and even higher expectations given his first 8 games or so. If we expect the same type of influence from McDavid given an accepted line of fancystats in the NFL.....Why should I expect the Sabres to be much better than this year, next year, given everything else as constant?
TrueBlueGED Posted January 18, 2015 Report Posted January 18, 2015 Let's put it this way. Take Kiko Alonso as an example. Some fancystats place said that by him being out for the year, it equated to 1/3 less of a win for the Bills for an entire season. If Kiko is 1/11 guys on the field for 30 minutes a game.....for 16 games......he is 4.5% of the output in talent which influences record. Over the course of 82 games, Kiko would project to 1 2/3 more wins for the Bills. On a hockey basis, 3 points. Say McDavid plays 20-22 minutes a game. He is 1/5. That equates to 7% of output of talent which influences record. If McDavid at 18 plays at the level against men which Kiko did in the NFL at 22....it projects to just under 3 wins.....or 6 points. Kiko was pretty much in the talk for rookie of the year the whole year and even higher expectations given his first 8 games or so. If we expect the same type of influence from McDavid given an accepted line of fancystats in the NFL.....Why should I expect the Sabres to be much better than this year, next year, given everything else as constant? How do you define much better? You shouldn't expect them to morph into a playoff team based on who we draft at 1/2 this year...no single move could do that, we're just that bad. I think many of us are still expecting another bottom-10 finish next year. Crosby as a rookie was worth 10.5 points in the standings, and for comparison, MacKinnon was worth 7.7 last year and Stamkos was 4.5 as a rookie. So no, we're not a playoff team simply by virtue of drafting another high end prospect. But that's a far cry from saying it will take 5 years to be competitive again, because as we all know it's not just "draft McEichel and pray." Reinhart will be here too, who should be another difference maker in the 5-8 point shares range. Young players like Ristolainen and Girgensons will be better and maturing into guys who control play rather than simply looking decent on a bad team. Trades for established players, and so on. Stamkos' point shares jumped to 12.8 as a sophomore, Malkin was at 13.9, Ovechkin has been in double digits his entire career (don't tell that to the xenophobes). Even if you look at a slower-developing elite player like Tavares, he was still up to 10 in year 3. Most other currently elite players who were drafted in the top few picks follow a similar trajectory--good to great as rookies, great in years 2 and beyond. Only adding McDavid/Eichel and Reinhart to this team likely adds 10-15 points with them as rookies. It's not going to take 5 years.
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted January 18, 2015 Report Posted January 18, 2015 How do you define much better? You shouldn't expect them to morph into a playoff team based on who we draft at 1/2 this year...no single move could do that, we're just that bad. I think many of us are still expecting another bottom-10 finish next year. Crosby as a rookie was worth 10.5 points in the standings, and for comparison, MacKinnon was worth 7.7 last year and Stamkos was 4.5 as a rookie. So no, we're not a playoff team simply by virtue of drafting another high end prospect. But that's a far cry from saying it will take 5 years to be competitive again, because as we all know it's not just "draft McEichel and pray." Reinhart will be here too, who should be another difference maker in the 5-8 point shares range. Young players like Ristolainen and Girgensons will be better and maturing into guys who control play rather than simply looking decent on a bad team. Trades for established players, and so on. Stamkos' point shares jumped to 12.8 as a sophomore, Malkin was at 13.9, Ovechkin has been in double digits his entire career (don't tell that to the xenophobes). Even if you look at a slower-developing elite player like Tavares, he was still up to 10 in year 3. Most other currently elite players who were drafted in the top few picks follow a similar trajectory--good to great as rookies, great in years 2 and beyond. Only adding McDavid/Eichel and Reinhart to this team likely adds 10-15 points with them as rookies. It's not going to take 5 years. Did you see Reinhart play? Did you see Risto drop the water ski rope on his guy last night?....talk about Ovechkin...... I guess there is no other thing to do but let it play out. So given the 20% chance you get McDavid....(Oh that's right, Eichel is just as good....just like Gretzky/Lemeiux/Crosby came the same year)....we shall find out.
TrueBlueGED Posted January 18, 2015 Report Posted January 18, 2015 (edited) Did you see Reinhart play? Did you see Risto drop the water ski rope on his guy last night?....talk about Ovechkin...... I guess there is no other thing to do but let it play out. So given the 20% chance you get McDavid....(Oh that's right, Eichel is just as good....just like Gretzky/Lemeiux/Crosby came the same year)....we shall find out. Stamkos looked awful for the first half of his rookie year. Tavares too. Seth Jones has had his growing pains. I don't think Reinhart looked as bad as many around here, but regardless, it has zero bearing on what he'll look like next year; not to mention the World Juniors where he was just dominant. I think you're letting your first impression get the better of you. Edited January 18, 2015 by TrueBluePhD
MattPie Posted January 20, 2015 Report Posted January 20, 2015 (edited) I don't understand that concept given Hodgson's example. You say he has the talent. He was on a top 8 team for a few years and scored 20 goals as a youngin' He is worthless here, yet is supposedly trying. He was also playing on the third line, if I remember right. The whole reason he wanted out was he was behind two good centers and couldn't get ice time. Also: 20 goals from anyone on this team would look pretty good right now. I'm just trying to reconcile how some guys considered to have good offensive talent are worthless on this team, but how an 18 year old can be successful and assumed to raise the level and outcomes of the team in short order. I'm pretty much expecting this team to be 5 years away from any real chance if we hit prospects. God help you if it isn't McDavid. Most of the people here (at least as I recall) are in agreement with you: 5 (maybe 4) years away from being a contender. Anything else is too optimistic for my taste. To sum up: 2014-15: We're talking Proud (but playing like ######) 2015-16: We're talking Proud (and actually winning some games) 2016-17: Magical run to #8 2017-18: Wild Card/Top-3 whatever-division-we're-in bubble 2018-19: See: 2014-15 Islanders (I have faith that Murray won't set things back a couple years like Snow did) 2019-20: ??? Edited January 20, 2015 by MattPie
Jsixspd Posted January 20, 2015 Report Posted January 20, 2015 LOL - Hogsdon has done it - he actually has fewer points and a worse plus/minus at the All-Star Break than did Ville Leino last year! Hodgson - 7 points, plus minus of -19 after 46 games played Leino - 10 points, plus minus of -10, after 38 games. WTF!!!! He's played in EIGHT more games than Leino did at last year's All-Star Break, and still 3 fewer points!!! LOL!!!!!
Jsixspd Posted January 30, 2015 Report Posted January 30, 2015 And IF Hodgson banks less than 2 points tonight, he'll have set a new mark on the Leino Bar. Last year's splits thru the end of January Leino - thru January 2014 - 36 games played - 9 points, Hodgson - thru January 29th, 2015 - 47 G games played, 7 points Additionally, the Leino Bar thru the end of January - plus/minus of -9Hodgson appears to already have that cinched for the January split, with a brutal plus minus of -19 Another month of this, and we'll be ditching the Leino Bar in favor of the Hodgson Bar, for measuring bad O players.
darksabre Posted January 30, 2015 Author Report Posted January 30, 2015 And IF Hodgson banks less than 2 points tonight, he'll have set a new mark on the Leino Bar. Last year's splits thru the end of January Leino - thru January 2014 - 36 games played - 9 points, Hodgson - thru January 29th, 2015 - 47 G games played, 7 points Additionally, the Leino Bar thru the end of January - plus/minus of -9 Hodgson appears to already have that cinched for the January split, with a brutal plus minus of -19 Another month of this, and we'll be ditching the Leino Bar in favor of the Hodgson Bar, for measuring bad O players. Solid work on these stats. He truly is a whole new level of awful.
Jsixspd Posted February 7, 2015 Report Posted February 7, 2015 Hodgson's current stats. He managed to sneak in a point in the last 9 days, but his +/- has worsened to -20 The Google Ad that appeared on the ESPN page when I checked his stats - had to include in the snip. However, the only thing "criminal" about Hodgson is his terrible play. I wished another team would target him on the ice - try to provoke ol Co-Ho into fighting or responding. It seems like wherever trouble is, or the puck is, there Hodgson shall not be found. He's constantly giving the puck away - either to his team mates or the other team. When is the last time we've seen him battle FEROCIOUSLY for puck possession? Or involved in a scrum? It just doesn't happen. He's as gutless as Leino, and possibly even more worthless.
bunomatic Posted February 7, 2015 Report Posted February 7, 2015 (edited) Hodgson's current stats. He managed to sneak in a point in the last 9 days, but his +/- has worsened to -20 The Google Ad that appeared on the ESPN page when I checked his stats - had to include in the snip. However, the only thing "criminal" about Hodgson is his terrible play. I wished another team would target him on the ice - try to provoke ol Co-Ho into fighting or responding. It seems like wherever trouble is, or the puck is, there Hodgson shall not be found. He's constantly giving the puck away - either to his team mates or the other team. When is the last time we've seen him battle FEROCIOUSLY for puck possession? Or involved in a scrum? It just doesn't happen. He's as gutless as Leino, and possibly even more worthless. As soft as soft can be. Thankfully this team has been going away from this type of player in recent years. I wish no ill will towards Cody. He's probably a real nice guy. But he deserves a fresh start somewhere else. He's a Regier type guy. Maybe Darcy will take him ? Edited February 7, 2015 by bunomatic
deluca67 Posted February 7, 2015 Report Posted February 7, 2015 As soft as soft can be. Thankfully this team has been going away from this type of player in recent years. I wish no ill will towards Cody. He's probably a real nice guy. But he deserves a fresh start somewhere else. He's a Regier type guy. Maybe Darcy will take him ? Regier type guy, absolutely. I look at Hodgson, Myers and Stafford and see the same mistake made by the so called patient fiscally responsible former GM. All three players were paid well before they were ready and non of the three has earned the level of contract they currently have. I have to wonder what type of players they would have become if they had not cashed in so early.
inkman Posted February 7, 2015 Report Posted February 7, 2015 Hodgson's current stats. He managed to sneak in a point in the last 9 days, but his +/- has worsened to -20 The Google Ad that appeared on the ESPN page when I checked his stats - had to include in the snip. However, the only thing "criminal" about Hodgson is his terrible play. I wished another team would target him on the ice - try to provoke ol Co-Ho into fighting or responding. It seems like wherever trouble is, or the puck is, there Hodgson shall not be found. He's constantly giving the puck away - either to his team mates or the other team. When is the last time we've seen him battle FEROCIOUSLY for puck possession? Or involved in a scrum? It just doesn't happen. He's as gutless as Leino, and possibly even more worthless. I really hope they buy him out after the season, this crusade is tired and annoying. I think 90% of your posts are dedicated to Cody Hodgson.
Number73 Posted February 8, 2015 Report Posted February 8, 2015 Hodson and Stafford on the 5th line... They should be handing out gatoraide to the players that are actual NHL caliber. I can not even watch when they play.. Hodson plain stinks! I wish I could find the post early in the year where someone said I didn't know Hockey because I said Hodson sucked...
bunomatic Posted February 8, 2015 Report Posted February 8, 2015 Hodson and Stafford on the 5th line... They should be handing out gatoraide to the players that are actual NHL caliber. I can not even watch when they play.. Hodson plain stinks! I wish I could find the post early in the year where someone said I didn't know Hockey because I said Hodson sucked... That would have been post 1 or 2 ? But I do agree ol Hodgey seems to have lost his passion for hockey.
Jsixspd Posted February 8, 2015 Report Posted February 8, 2015 I really hope they buy him out after the season, this crusade is tired and annoying. I think 90% of your posts are dedicated to Cody Hodgson. There is more than a grain of truth to this. It seems like this year I've devoted more effort to examining Cody Hodgson's play than Cody Hodgson has.
Cereal Posted February 8, 2015 Report Posted February 8, 2015 I really hope they buy him out after the season, this crusade is tired and annoying. I think 90% of your posts are dedicated to Cody Hodgson. Hey maybe this is a good spot for me to ask this.... I thought buyouts no longer existed? Teams had two buyouts after the last "lockout", to use either last offseason or the one before it.... no?
LastPommerFan Posted February 8, 2015 Report Posted February 8, 2015 Hey maybe this is a good spot for me to ask this.... I thought buyouts no longer existed? Teams had two buyouts after the last "lockout", to use either last offseason or the one before it.... no? It would be a regular buyout, as opposed to a no-cap-hit compliance buyout. The reason it will happen this year is that it is his last june under the age where it goes from 1/3 of the remaining contract to 2/3. His cap hit will be around $740k if we bought him out this summer, it would be around $1.5M after that. $750k is simply the difference between carrying 2 scratches vs 3 during the regular season (playoff rosters are expanded with no cap). With the AHL club a mere 65 miles away, this is a complete non-factor.
deluca67 Posted February 8, 2015 Report Posted February 8, 2015 There is more than a grain of truth to this. It seems like this year I've devoted more effort to examining Cody Hodgson's play than Cody Hodgson has. I would not be surprised if the Hodgson trade and subsequent contract extension is what keeps Regier from a future job as a NHL GM.
Jsixspd Posted February 8, 2015 Report Posted February 8, 2015 (edited) I would not be surprised if the Hodgson trade and subsequent contract extension is what keeps Regier from a future job as a NHL GM. Note that last year, Arizona finished the season with a .552 winning percentage. Regier is hired by Arizona over last summer as Assistant GM, and now Arizona has a .413 winning percentage approx. 2/3rds of the way through this season. Coincidence? Edited February 8, 2015 by Jsixspd
inkman Posted February 8, 2015 Report Posted February 8, 2015 Note that last year, Arizona finished the season with a .552 winning percentage. Regier is hired by Arizona over last summer as Assistant GM, and now Arizona has a .413 winning percentage approx. 2/3rds of the way through this season. Coincidence?Yes they lost a ton of talent with Vrbata, Riberio and Klinkhammer. That would be like the Sabres losing Ennis, Girgensons and Stewart.
dudacek Posted February 8, 2015 Report Posted February 8, 2015 I would not be surprised if the Hodgson trade and subsequent contract extension is what keeps Regier from a future job as a NHL GM. The extension was a horrible decision. Clearly the boy needed a bridge contract. The trade? Kassian has 25 goals and 50 points in parts of four seasons as a Canuck. Hodgson has 40 goals and 94 points in parts of four seasons as a Sabre. Neither can crack the top six. Both have been healthy scratches. Trading one marginal NHLer for another is barely a blip on Darcy's resume.
nfreeman Posted February 8, 2015 Report Posted February 8, 2015 I would not be surprised if the Hodgson trade and subsequent contract extension is what keeps Regier from a future job as a NHL GM. The extension was a horrible decision. Clearly the boy needed a bridge contract. The trade? Kassian has 25 goals and 50 points in parts of four seasons as a Canuck. Hodgson has 40 goals and 94 points in parts of four seasons as a Sabre. Neither can crack the top six. Both have been healthy scratches. Trading one marginal NHLer for another is barely a blip on Darcy's resume. It's also worth considering whom the Sabres might have drafted at #13 overall instead of Kassian: - Dmitri Kulikov -- #14 -- playing close to 22 min per game for Florida - Nick Leddy -- #16 -- playing over 20 min per game for the Islanders - Chris Kreider -- #19 -- would be the best forward on the Sabres - John Moore -- #21 -- playing over 15 min per game on the Rangers - Marcus Johansson -- #24 -- full-time NHL forward for the last 5 years; currently on Washington's top line with Backstrom & Ovechkin - Dylan Olsen -- #28 -- playing just under 16 min per game for Florida - Simon Despres -- #30 -- playing over 16 min per game for Pittsburgh I'll say it again: Darcy was flat-out terrible at drafting forwards. -
inkman Posted February 8, 2015 Report Posted February 8, 2015 It's also worth considering whom the Sabres might have drafted at #13 overall instead of Kassian: - Dmitri Kulikov -- #14 -- playing close to 22 min per game for Florida - Nick Leddy -- #16 -- playing over 20 min per game for the Islanders - Chris Kreider -- #19 -- would be the best forward on the Sabres - John Moore -- #21 -- playing over 15 min per game on the Rangers - Marcus Johansson -- #24 -- full-time NHL forward for the last 5 years; currently on Washington's top line with Backstrom & Ovechkin - Dylan Olsen -- #28 -- playing just under 16 min per game for Florida - Simon Despres -- #30 -- playing over 16 min per game for Pittsburgh I'll say it again: Darcy was flat-out terrible at drafting forwards. - Just to play Devils advocate, I'm guessing you picked the players you did because they are the best ones from that draft after Kassian. It would appear that at least half the other GM's suck at it too.
dudacek Posted February 8, 2015 Report Posted February 8, 2015 (edited) It's also worth considering whom the Sabres might have drafted at #13 overall instead of Kassian: - Dmitri Kulikov -- #14 -- playing close to 22 min per game for Florida - Nick Leddy -- #16 -- playing over 20 min per game for the Islanders - Chris Kreider -- #19 -- would be the best forward on the Sabres - John Moore -- #21 -- playing over 15 min per game on the Rangers - Marcus Johansson -- #24 -- full-time NHL forward for the last 5 years; currently on Washington's top line with Backstrom & Ovechkin - Dylan Olsen -- #28 -- playing just under 16 min per game for Florida - Simon Despres -- #30 -- playing over 16 min per game for Pittsburgh I'll say it again: Darcy was flat-out terrible at drafting forwards. - That pick might be a good illustration of focusing too much on need at the draft. The Sabres clearly were in desperate need of a power forward. Kassian was the consensus as the most talented tough guy available. Most fans were ecstatic with the pick, me included. Edited February 8, 2015 by dudacek
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