plenzmd1 Posted October 29, 2014 Report Posted October 29, 2014 Mr. Ghost, It is now your duty as to keep your posting privileges on this board that you deliver a race by race breakdown of the Breeders Cup, delivered Friday by noon! :P Assume a $300 bankroll, and please help me crush the turf races :worthy: ! Seriously, greatly appreciate any help or insight, even if only a couple of key races that you see some value.As you now, i am always a big fan of your turf analysis. Quote
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted October 29, 2014 Report Posted October 29, 2014 I'm in....been working on it. Tonight or tomorrow I'll throw some stuff up. Quote
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted October 30, 2014 Report Posted October 30, 2014 OK....let's see what we have.... Friday: Race 1 - Turf - Just a regular AOC, but I like it. #8 Hide My Heart.....Tons of speed, all turf in pedigree, ran well off bench before, good connections. Probably 7-2 or 3-1, but a no brainer for me. Gonna hook up with #10 Margie's Minute. First time on the turf but has speed and Jolie's Halo is one of my top 5 DamSires for the turf. Might play on top depending on odds. Throwing the 3 and 12 in there somehow. Race 2 - Marathon - Really shows how stamina is for crap in the states. A 200K pot G2 and Breeders Cup Championship honors, and it looks like an A1X. I'm going with #4 Ice Cream Truck. One of the few who show speed and have some distance capability. At 4, has been improving and although on turf and synthetic lately, should handle dirt. 8-1 is fair. Race 4 - Turf - #9 Sammy Mandeville listed at 20-1. It's a deep field, but Rock Hard Ten usually throws a big horse who needs time. Capable and has some excuses in decent races when finishing ok. Mainly an odds play. Hooking up with another at 20-1 #12 Yard Line. Didn't do well only time on turf, but one of few who have speed and no reason it should hate turf. Race 6 - Juvy Turf - Going with euro #7 War Envoy. Love the breeding for the mile at SA. Only thing that scares me is that not a lot of speed to chase down so he may be closer than wants. Might go with #2 Daddy DT depending on odds. Cuts back and back on turf which both fit. Showing some speed so maybe he goes to front and holds on. Race 7 - Dirt Mile - Going with #3 Vicar's In Trouble. To me the pedigree screams a mile, and I've been waiting for him to cut back. Was a fringe horse for me watching the derby preps. #1 is the goods, but I like the play. Race 8 - Juv Filly Turf - #2 Osalia.....euro again....has a stalking style and plenty of front running types here. Sad how weak this field is on figures. A decade ago these numbers would be in a 50K overnight at Calder. Will look at post parade to see if anyone looks up to snuff. Race 9 - Distaff - #2 Tiz Midnight.....listed at 10-1...just trying to beat the favorites. Quote
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted October 30, 2014 Report Posted October 30, 2014 Saturday Race 4 - Juv fillies - #12 By the Moon....I crushed this filly in her last at long odds....she's a bright, classy girl. I love the trainer who is still under the radar and her owner is the coolest gal around and a fun twitter follow for race fans. If she presents as well this race, I like her a lot. Don't know all the others so will look around, but sweet girl. Race 6 - F+M Sprint - Going to hammer a 2-6 exacta box. #2 Little Alexis is cutting back and I think this is her perfect distance. She beat My Miss Sophia who I think the world of. #6 Leigh Court is a no brainer but might be 3-1. Race 7 - turf Sprint - I LOVE this one.....I am going with #5 Ambitious Brew. Not my typical pedigree play, but speedy as heck, has run good figures, is 2nd off the shelf, likes the track, and has Mike Smith. 12-1 on the line, and I'd take 6-1. It just looks right to me. Going to play with #14 No Nay Never. This horse might be a freak.....9-2 on morning line. I might do a silly exacta on this one depending on my bankroll and amount of booze ingested by 5PM. Race 8 - juvy - #13-4-9 tri box.....going to look at them on track before going big on a win. Probably #13 Upstart. Classy guy who can rate, which is rare for a young colt in his first few races with so much talent. Flatter is one of my favorite under the radar dirt sires. #4 The Great War is a turf euro...but should be fine on dirt. #9 Carpe Diem is a beauty and the real deal. He could be the favorite in the Derby next year, or break his leg eating a carrot given his pedigree. If I hit my crazy exacta the previous race, I may make a stupid tri bet here. Race 9 - turf - In a rarity...so much speed in here that I want a couple stalkers. Everyone is on Telescope, but I like #7 Flintshire. Not great odds, but just does it the right way, every race. That being said, he hasn't won in over a year, but 6 of his 7 losses total 11 lengths and most were in G1. Hooking up with #12 Main Sequence for one of the best turf trainers and an honest horse. Race 11 - mile turf - Long shot special. #6 Tom's Tribute....15-1. Love the pedigree. Last time off 2 month break, ran great but hit trouble early. Been working steady with this race the goal. Can come from anywhere. Playing with the favorite #5 Toronado. Race 12 - classic - All in on #11 Tonalist. Shared Belief is a nice horse and love the connections, but looking a little ratty. I'm hoping the western money going on SB and CC keep Tonalist at 5-1. Good Luck. Quote
plenzmd1 Posted October 30, 2014 Author Report Posted October 30, 2014 (edited) Thank you kind sir, greatly appreciated! Only been to one Breeders cup, way back in da day at Santa Anita. One of the first ones I believe. A 149-1 shot win the classic, French Horse. , I believe Cardmania win the Sprint. That was the opener, crushed the DD with him keyed. Agh, the days before wives and kiddies! Good luck all? And thank you again GoDD Edited October 30, 2014 by plenzmd1 Quote
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted October 30, 2014 Report Posted October 30, 2014 No problem. I've only been to a few. Santa Anita is gorgeous though. The funny thing is you can get tickets a lot cheaper for the BC than the Derby. Quote
plenzmd1 Posted October 30, 2014 Author Report Posted October 30, 2014 No problem. I've only been to a few. Santa Anita is gorgeous though. The funny thing is you can get tickets a lot cheaper for the BC than the Derby. Had clubhouse seats for that one, sister knew a guy who knew a guy, so had FREE seats :worthy: Quote
plenzmd1 Posted November 1, 2014 Author Report Posted November 1, 2014 So ..bad news was rough day Good news only was able to see and bet last two races..." I didn't lose" Must mean crushing it today! Quote
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted November 1, 2014 Report Posted November 1, 2014 Not a great day. my only saving grace was Chitu, who d4rk and Yuri liked in the Derby. Only 7-2 though and the exacta was like $23 for $1. Daddy DT would have been huge. That race played out just like I figured, but he wasn't close enough to the 2 on the lead who went all the way. He was coming but spotted them 6 or 7 lengths. That sort of p'd me off, but oh well. Overall not a good handicapping day. So that means 1 of 2 things. I'm either Ice Cold, or the law of averages perks up today and I should double all my bets and put together a $200 pick6 ticket. Who does Thomas Vanek like? Quote
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted November 2, 2014 Report Posted November 2, 2014 If you only followed my turf picks, you may have survived the day. The worst thing was watching the juvy and seeing my $500 trifecta get run down. I'll tell you....that Upstart is my early Derby pick. He's a NY bred and can pretty much be Funny Cide. I looked at him today and he still has a lot of room to fill out. Quote
plenzmd1 Posted November 2, 2014 Author Report Posted November 2, 2014 If you only followed my turf picks, you may have survived the day. The worst thing was watching the juvy and seeing my $500 trifecta get run down. I'll tell you....that Upstart is my early Derby pick. He's a NY bred and can pretty much be Funny Cide. I looked at him today and he still has a lot of room to fill out. Survive is a good word LOL. The Turf saved me. I have always been a huge Motion fan, and with your pick on the other horse I hit that race fairly hard. Prolly put a tad to much in the Classic, but I was no where close. Even without a dog in the hunt, still think 7 should have come down. Quote
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted November 2, 2014 Report Posted November 2, 2014 Survive is a good word LOL. The Turf saved me. I have always been a huge Motion fan, and with your pick on the other horse I hit that race fairly hard. Prolly put a tad to much in the Classic, but I was no where close. Even without a dog in the hunt, still think 7 should have come down. I think everyone agreed that if it was a normal race he probably would comed down. You just never see it at that level. It's sort of like No Goal in the Stanley Cup. Yeah....by the strict definition of the rules you should probably call it, but it's for the whole enchelada, so you hate to do anything unless it is a pure murder. I love Bayern though and I give them credit for going for it. I figured he could have run backwards and won the dirt mile. He wasn't on my ticket here. Quote
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