Drunkard Posted November 3, 2014 Report Share Posted November 3, 2014 You know what my wish for this season is.....for the Sabres to lose a ton right now, get in a position to where 2nd to last place team is 12 points ahead, and THEN cheer on victories for the remainder of the season. I agree. I constantly keep track of the other games in the NHL and am always rooting for 3 point games and for the other bottom feeders to pool out victories. I'd love to see us get last place wrapped up as quickly as possible so we can put the era of tanking behind us for a good 15 years or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabres Fan in NS Posted November 3, 2014 Report Share Posted November 3, 2014 Hey all, Love that this thread was created. In a year that is difficult (by design), I'm having a ton of fun. As Buffalo fans we have legitimate rooting interests every night (against the Islanders and Blues, for 3-point games for pretty much everyone else for instance - especially the Canes and Coyotes right now). I'm all on board with the plan Murray has setup and actually had the chance to see Eichel in person this weekend. I went up to Boston to visit family and we went to the BU/Providence game. He didn't have as good of a game as he had the night before (shorthanded goal, assist), but you could see his skills on display. He's a big guy who flies up and down the ice, is physical, and is constantly creating opportunities for his team. In a year that the NHL wanted to discourage tanking, there's really only one great scenario: finish last so you have 100% chance of getting McDavid or Eichel. The odds of getting one of them drop dramatically after that, so it'll be a very interesting race to the bottom. If the 2015 draft was not as strong as it is, I don't think there would be the support that we see, but because of the generational talents available it's garnered more interest. Welcome to the board. We are a great big dysfunctional family, but we love each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IKnowPhysics Posted November 3, 2014 Report Share Posted November 3, 2014 We are a great big dysfunctional family, but we love each other. Shut up. I love you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabres Fan in NS Posted November 3, 2014 Report Share Posted November 3, 2014 Shut up. I love you. :wub: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted November 3, 2014 Report Share Posted November 3, 2014 (edited) Again: the Sabres have less than a 1-in-5 chance of getting McD. You can keep your eyes on him all you like -- it is highly unlikely that he ends up here. Again: we f*cking get it. (This is said with the most love possible) Edited November 3, 2014 by Tankalicious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samson's Flow Posted November 3, 2014 Report Share Posted November 3, 2014 Again: the Sabres have less than a 1-in-5 chance of getting McD. You can keep your eyes on him all you like -- it is highly unlikely that he ends up here. Separately: the Islanders are making a nice little run in the CHL, innit? They're only a few more losses away from pushing for 2nd place. Do you really want us all to write "a 20% chance at McDavid with a guarantee of at least Eichel if we finish 30th which is still unlikely given the high profile of the 2015 draft class and the amount of teams tanking this season but we're still gonna give it our best shot to suck real bad" every time this is discussed? think of the children... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted November 3, 2014 Report Share Posted November 3, 2014 I'll keep saying it: A DFL finish this year assures us of what is widely reported to be a generational talent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfreeman Posted November 3, 2014 Report Share Posted November 3, 2014 Hey all, Love that this thread was created. In a year that is difficult (by design), I'm having a ton of fun. As Buffalo fans we have legitimate rooting interests every night (against the Islanders and Blues, for 3-point games for pretty much everyone else for instance - especially the Canes and Coyotes right now). I'm all on board with the plan Murray has setup and actually had the chance to see Eichel in person this weekend. I went up to Boston to visit family and we went to the BU/Providence game. He didn't have as good of a game as he had the night before (shorthanded goal, assist), but you could see his skills on display. He's a big guy who flies up and down the ice, is physical, and is constantly creating opportunities for his team. In a year that the NHL wanted to discourage tanking, there's really only one great scenario: finish last so you have 100% chance of getting McDavid or Eichel. The odds of getting one of them drop dramatically after that, so it'll be a very interesting race to the bottom. If the 2015 draft was not as strong as it is, I don't think there would be the support that we see, but because of the generational talents available it's garnered more interest. Welcome! Again: we f*cking get it. (This is said with the most love possible) Do you really want us all to write "a 20% chance at McDavid with a guarantee of at least Eichel if we finish 30th which is still unlikely given the high profile of the 2015 draft class and the amount of teams tanking this season but we're still gonna give it our best shot to suck real bad" every time this is discussed? think of the children... When people keep writing "eyes on the prize" or similar statements about McD, the heavy implication is that McD is a prize that is attainable. This is simply not the case. There is nothing whatsoever the Sabres can do to improve their odds above the less-than-1-in-5 level where they currently reside. "Eyes on the prize" posts should contemplate Eichel, not McDavid. McDavid posts should be in the nature of "If I won $300MM in the megamillions lottery tomorrow, here's what I would do with it." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted November 3, 2014 Report Share Posted November 3, 2014 (edited) Again: the Sabres have less than a 1-in-5 chance of getting McD. You can keep your eyes on him all you like -- it is highly unlikely that he ends up here. Yea. I just think as a hockey fan, numbers like that, and the things he's doing, are really fun to talk about, because guys like him don't come around very often, and it's fun to follow. Edit: so maybe those stats belong in the 2015 Draft thread and not here :P Edited November 3, 2014 by Arcsabresfan41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted November 3, 2014 Report Share Posted November 3, 2014 When people keep writing "eyes on the prize" or similar statements about McD, the heavy implication is that McD is a prize that is attainable. This is simply not the case. There is nothing whatsoever the Sabres can do to improve their odds above the less-than-1-in-5 level where they currently reside. "Eyes on the prize" posts should contemplate Eichel, not McDavid. McDavid posts should be in the nature of "If I won $300MM in the megamillions lottery tomorrow, here's what I would do with it." Hmm. As for attainable: It will most likely be more attainable for the Sabres to select McDavid than it will for any single other franchise. The odds of winning $300MM in the mega-millions are probably -- oh, man -- in the order of 1-in-150,000,000. The Sabres' probable odds of getting McDavid are 1-in-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted November 3, 2014 Report Share Posted November 3, 2014 Hmm. As for attainable: It will most likely be more attainable for the Sabres to select McDavid than it will for any single other franchise. The odds of winning $300MM in the mega-millions are probably McDavid -- oh, man -- in the order of 1-in-150,000,000. The Sabres' probable odds of getting McDavid winning the mega millions are 1-in-5. Fixed that for you. Because, Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brawndo Posted November 3, 2014 Report Share Posted November 3, 2014 Would you choose him over McDavid given the chance? No, but it is close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LastPommerFan Posted November 3, 2014 Report Share Posted November 3, 2014 Exactly. With the Sabres finishing DFL plus the isle and possibly the blues missing the playoffs. Which jersey will #97 most likely be wearing next October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted November 3, 2014 Report Share Posted November 3, 2014 Some good new for CHL fans: I took a look at espn's power rankings (inb4 "but, it's espn!"). Some interesting quotes they had were On the Islanders falling 18 spots to 22nd After a 4-0-0 start, the Isles have dropped five of seven games, including three straight. Last season's issue is back despite new goalies: the Isles are 29th in goals against per game at 3.54. Yikes. and on the Sabres dropping 1 spot to 30th They probably deserve a better ranking after beating the Red Wings on Sunday, but the fact is, they are the worst team in the league. http://espn.go.com/nhl/powerrankings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfreeman Posted November 3, 2014 Report Share Posted November 3, 2014 Hmm. As for attainable: It will most likely be more attainable for the Sabres to select McDavid than it will for any single other franchise. The odds of winning $300MM in the mega-millions are probably -- oh, man -- in the order of 1-in-150,000,000. The Sabres' probable odds of getting McDavid are 1-in-5. Respectfully, this is neither here nor there. No one else's odds matter -- just the Sabres'. And right now, the Sabres' odds are decidedly less than 1-in-5, because we have to sit through -- and prevail in -- another 70 games of crapola in a hotly contested Shart tournament. If we are very, very lucky, the Isles will bottom out and bring our chances closer to 28%. And if we are incredibly lucky, STL will fall apart and bring our chances up to 30% or so. But even if both of those events occur, AND the Sabres win the Shart, we're still 70% likely NOT to get him. It's not that I'm worried about a jinx or other superstition. I just don't want anyone to kid himself/herself about the wisdom of the tank based on an assumption that McD will be the payoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qwksndmonster Posted November 3, 2014 Report Share Posted November 3, 2014 Respectfully, this is neither here nor there. No one else's odds matter -- just the Sabres'. And right now, the Sabres' odds are decidedly less than 1-in-5, because we have to sit through -- and prevail in -- another 70 games of crapola in a hotly contested Shart tournament. If we are very, very lucky, the Isles will bottom out and bring our chances closer to 28%. And if we are incredibly lucky, STL will fall apart and bring our chances up to 30% or so. But even if both of those events occur, AND the Sabres win the Shart, we're still 70% likely NOT to get him. It's not that I'm worried about a jinx or other superstition. I just don't want anyone to kid himself/herself about the wisdom of the tank based on an assumption that McD will be the payoff. I think that probably >95% of posters on this board know that, though (and definitely do now, thanks to you). It's just a playful thing to say whenever McDavid does anything cool. If it would really bother you less if people said "McEichel" or whatever then you're just arguing semantics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Claude_Verret Posted November 3, 2014 Report Share Posted November 3, 2014 When people keep writing "eyes on the prize" or similar statements about McD, the heavy implication is that McD is a prize that is attainable. This is simply not the case. There is nothing whatsoever the Sabres can do to improve their odds above the less-than-1-in-5 level where they currently reside. "Eyes on the prize" posts should contemplate Eichel, not McDavid. McDavid posts should be in the nature of "If I won $300MM in the megamillions lottery tomorrow, here's what I would do with it." I can only speak for myself, but when I say "eyes on the prize" I mean the CHL championship, aka DFL or The Shart trophy, which in turn of course guarantees a piece of McEichel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bob_sauve28 Posted November 3, 2014 Report Share Posted November 3, 2014 So what are the odds we will not get either of the top two picks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabresFuture Posted November 3, 2014 Report Share Posted November 3, 2014 Finish 30th - 20% of getting 1st overall, 100% of getting 1st or 2nd (0% chance of not getting McDavid or Eichel) Finish 29th - 13.5% of getting 1st overall, 33.5% of getting 2nd (66.5% chance of not getting McDavid or Eichel) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabres Fan in NS Posted November 3, 2014 Report Share Posted November 3, 2014 So what are the odds we will not get either of the top two picks? Perish the thought. ZERO ... THE SHART IS OURS!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Claude_Verret Posted November 3, 2014 Report Share Posted November 3, 2014 It's not that I'm worried about a jinx or other superstition. I just don't want anyone to kid himself/herself about the wisdom of the tank based on an assumption that McD will be the payoff. I can guarantee with 100% certainty that if the Sabres win the Shart and then the odds play out as they should with no McDavid in blue an gold, there absolutely will be long time posters here both lamenting our "bad luck" and those telling everyone "see the tank didn't work". It happened last year within seconds of us "losing" the lottery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CallawaySabres Posted November 3, 2014 Report Share Posted November 3, 2014 I can guarantee with 100% certainty that if the Sabres win the Shart and then the odds play out as they should with no McDavid in blue an gold, there absolutely will be long time posters here both lamenting our "bad luck" and those telling everyone "see the tank didn't work". It happened last year within seconds of us "losing" the lottery. In defense of this past lottery, they still got the pick of the litter for offensive talent. No way would they have ever gone D with the #1 pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfreeman Posted November 3, 2014 Report Share Posted November 3, 2014 I can guarantee with 100% certainty that if the Sabres win the Shart and then the odds play out as they should with no McDavid in blue an gold, there absolutely will be long time posters here both lamenting our "bad luck" and those telling everyone "see the tank didn't work". It happened last year within seconds of us "losing" the lottery. You are right. I suppose it's time for me to dismount the soapbox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Claude_Verret Posted November 3, 2014 Report Share Posted November 3, 2014 In defense of this past lottery, they still got the pick of the litter for offensive talent. No way would they have ever gone D with the #1 pick. I agree, last year the tank was about finishing last in order to guarantee a pick no worse than second with no clear cut McEichel as the prize. This was said ad nauseum from October right up until the lottery, yet still when the Sabres didn't get the first pick we immediately had all the told you so and woe is us posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LastPommerFan Posted November 3, 2014 Report Share Posted November 3, 2014 I agree, last year the tank was about finishing last in order to guarantee a pick no worse than second with no clear cut McEichel as the prize. This was said ad nauseum from October right up until the lottery, yet still when the Sabres didn't get the first pick we immediately had all the told you so and woe is us posts. Which was especially awesome considering it didn't matter to who we were going to pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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