Current Carrion Hockey League Standings

[Hoss]

Current magic numbers through 2/18:

Nashville - 3
St. Louis, Montreal, Tampa Bay - 9
Anaheim, NY Islanders - 10
Chicago - 12

Detroit - 13
Pittsburgh, NY Rangers - 14
Washington - 15
Winnipeg - 17

Calgary - 19
Vancouver - 20
San Jose, Los Angeles - 21
Boston, Minnesota - 22
Florida, Dallas - 25
Colorado - 28
Philadelphia - 29
Ottawa - 31
Columbus, New Jersey - 34
Toronto - 36
Carolina - 40
Arizona - 41
Edmonton - 43

 

 

Tomorrow could be the first clincher for the Sabres based on these scenarios:

-A Nashville win and any Sabres loss.

-A Nashville regulation/OT win and anything other than a Sabres ROW (would clinch tiebreaker for Nashville leading to an extra point)

-A Nashville OT/SO loss and a Sabres regulation loss.

 

Once teams clinch the tiebreaker they will gain a point (or lose depending on how you look at it)

Edited February 19, 2015 by Tank

[pi2000]

Nice OT loss for BP Oil.

 

BUF at PHI tomorrow... Then its NYR, NSH, CBJ, VAN, FLA. Could be a nifty winning streak to close out Feb.

 

Every point is huge as EDM has an extremely weak schedule coming up against CHL bottom feeders.

[Hoss]

Current standings through games played 2/18

 

Team         GP  L  W OT PT MPP PR RPTC
Buffalo      57 37 16  4 78 128 50 43
Edmonton     59 32 17 10 74 120 46 49
Arizona      58 31 20  7 69 117 48 52

Carolina     56 29 20  7 65 117 52 56
Toronto      58 30 23  5 65 114 48 56
New Jersey   57 26 22  9 61 113 50 60
Columbus     55 27 25  3 57 111 54 64
Philadelphia 57 23 24 10 56 104 50 65

 

Tomorrow's slate only features one game and it's the Carrion leaders Buffalo versus the caboose, Philly.

 

 

There's no way that the remaining points to clinch is correct because Edmonton's RPTC is just an arbitrary floating number at this point. I don't know what they're clinching, but I've followed the guidelines of it so I'll leave it up to Taro to eventually figure out. If nobody has to pass Buffalo to clinch first place then everybody is set to clinch at 121 (one more point than second place which then becomes third place if they pass it and Buffalo holds up).

Edmonton is closer to Toronto than they are to us now.

Great post. I felt a little bit of joy and relief when I read this. Still so much hockey to be played and, as Buffalo has taught me, I'm still less than optimistic... But it's the little things.

Edited February 19, 2015 by Tank

[That Aud Smell]

As for Riter, it would surprise me not at all if he kinda, sorta, plausibly deniably lifted the CHL idea from here.

 

Otoh, the CHL isn't a wholly unique idea. The McEichel site is out there.

 

Even so.

[Taro T]

Current standings through games played 2/18.


Team         GP  L  W OT PT MPP PR RPTC CPM
Buffalo      57 37 16  4 78 129 50 43   20.0
Edmonton     59 32 17 10 74 120 46 47   13.5
Arizona      58 31 20  7 69 117 48 52   11.5
Toronto      58 30 23  5 65 114 48 56    8.5
Carolina     56 29 20  7 65 117 52 56    9.5
New Jersey   57 26 22  9 61 113 50 60    7.5
Columbus     55 27 25  3 57 111 54 64    6.5
Philadelphia 57 23 24 10 56 106 50 65    5.0

CPM = Current probability of landing McDavid

Per Wildcard's request, added the odds of landing McDavid to the line. The 2 non-CHLers w/ the best odds are the Otters @6% and Cowawado at 3.5%. Don't believe any of these 10 teams have a 2nd lottery pick @ present. When/if they do, those odds will be added in. The reason some look like they're out of order is lottery is based off reverse-NHL standings and due to unequal #'s of games played CHL standings =/= reverse-NHL standings.

Only 2 games on CHL schedule tonight: BJ's visit Pens and in a 1-1/2 bag matchup, Sabres visit Phlyers.

Edited February 19, 2015 by Taro T

[Assquatch]

Thei robviously still going to screw this up.

[Brawndo]

Sabres need to start CHL All Star Goalie Andres Lindback tonight

Edited February 19, 2015 by BRAWNDO

[shrader]

As for Riter, it would surprise me not at all if he kinda, sorta, plausibly deniably lifted the CHL idea from here.

 

Otoh, the CHL isn't a wholly unique idea. The McEichel site is out there.

 

Even so.

The thread has been great and all and I'm glad Taro started it. Let's face it though, like you just suggested, reversing the standings isn't exactly the most revolutionary development of the past century. I can't imagine the site in question had all that many readers anyway, well, at least until it was linked in here.

[That Aud Smell]

The thread has been great and all and I'm glad Taro started it. Let's face it though, like you just suggested, reversing the standings isn't exactly the most revolutionary development of the past century. I can't imagine the site in question had all that many readers anyway, well, at least until it was linked in here.

 

Agreed.

 

Looking at his site, though . . . it is curiously similar (identical) to Taro's CHL format and phrasing.

 

Also, this would not be the first (or second (or possibly fifth)) time that that particular venture would have been accused of knocking something off. 

[shrader]

Agreed.

 

Looking at his site, though . . . it is curiously similar (identical) to Taro's CHL format and phrasing.

 

Also, this would not be the first (or second (or possibly fifth)) time that that particular venture would have been accused of knocking something off.

Is it a site that is commonly linked around here? I guess I don't pay enough attention to notice the trend. Anyway, I don't feel like looking further into it because I don't want to give the site additional traffic if you are indeed right.

[That Aud Smell]

Is it a site that is commonly linked around here?

Not as far as I know.

 

Riter's not a bad guy, nor are his colleagues. It's just a huge stinking grind to come up with content as much as they must in order to do what they do.

[CallawaySabres]

Really want the 10 point separation from Edmonton and tonight could get us oh so close......

[Taro T]

Agreed.

 

Looking at his site, though . . . it is curiously similar (identical) to Taro's CHL format and phrasing.

 

Also, this would not be the first (or second (or possibly fifth)) time that that particular venture would have been accused of knocking something off. 

That's the thing with secret admirers, they always get outted.  And soooo close to Valentine's Day too. :blush:

[woods-racer]

Not as far as I know.

 

Riter's not a bad guy, nor are his colleagues. It's just a huge stinking grind to come up with content as much as they must in order to do what they do.

It just would have been nice if he would have thrown Taro a bone,  it was Identical. The numbers could not be different, but headings, arrangement and abbreviations ...Identical.  We would have flocked to the site to read the article and pay homage to Taro on SS and give props to Riter.

[WildCard]

Current standings through games played 2/18.

 

 

Team         GP  L  W OT PT MPP PR RPTC CPM

Buffalo      57 37 16  4 78 129 50 43   20.0

Edmonton     59 32 17 10 74 120 46 47   13.5

Arizona      58 31 20  7 69 117 48 52   11.5

Toronto      58 30 23  5 65 114 48 56    8.5

Carolina     56 29 20  7 65 117 52 56    9.5

New Jersey   57 26 22  9 61 113 50 60    7.5

Columbus     55 27 25  3 57 111 54 64    6.5

Philadelphia 57 23 24 10 56 106 50 65    5.0

 

CPM = Current probability of landing McDavid

 

Per Wildcard's request, added the odds of landing McDavid to the line. The 2 non-CHLers w/ the best odds are the Otters @6% and Cowawado at 3.5%. Don't believe any of these 10 teams have a 2nd lottery pick @ present. When/if they do, those odds will be added in. The reason some look like they're out of order is lottery is based off reverse-NHL standings and due to unequal #'s of games played CHL standings =/= reverse-NHL standings.

 

Only 2 games on CHL schedule tonight: BJ's visit Pens and in a 1-1/2 bag matchup, Sabres visit Phlyers.

Thanks for the addition of the CPM. I thought it was more of a probability of who will win the CHL rather than the draft lottery odds, kind of like a reverse playoff % done here

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Atlantic/Buffalo.html

 

I have no idea how that could be done though, just a thought; I can try and figure it out tomorrow night if people are interested 

[Cereal]

Thanks for the addition of the CPM. I thought it was more of a probability of who will win the CHL rather than the draft lottery odds, kind of like a reverse playoff % done here

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Atlantic/Buffalo.html

 

I have no idea how that could be done though, just a thought; I can try and figure it out tomorrow night if people are interested 

You mean like the far right column ("30") here, right? http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHLlottery.html

 

Or were you thinking of taking it one step further, and computing the total odds of getting McDavid with the probability of winning the CHL also factored into the equation?

[Taro T]

Thanks for the addition of the CPM. I thought it was more of a probability of who will win the CHL rather than the draft lottery odds, kind of like a reverse playoff % done here

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Atlantic/Buffalo.html

 

I have no idea how that could be done though, just a thought; I can try and figure it out tomorrow night if people are interested

 

Ahhh, my bad.

 

If you find a site that calcs that and looks reliable, I can post their results (w/ attribution, of course) in the standings. I won't have a chance to look for such a site for about 1 week. There's a site that Jeremy White is often referring to; it might be the one you mentioned above. It should be pretty easy to find the odds. Maybe we take it 1 step further and take that distribution of likely finishes and then weight it by the lottery weighting to give the ptobability of not just winning the CHL but of actually winning the REAL prize McDavid - would be very easy to do once somebody else has run the Monte Carlo simulations.

[WildCard]

You mean like the far right column ("30") here, right? http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHLlottery.html

 

Or were you thinking of taking it one step further, and computing the total odds of getting McDavid with the probability of winning the CHL also factored into the equation?

Nope, I meant that far right column right there. :lol: 

 

Completely missed that, thanks 

 

That's an impressive sight, it's a dream world of stats. The odds of the Sabres winning the CHL are 94%; way higher than I thought they'd be. Edmonton sits at a lowly 5%

[Cereal]

You mean like the far right column ("30") here, right? http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHLlottery.html

 

Or were you thinking of taking it one step further, and computing the total odds of getting McDavid with the probability of winning the CHL also factored into the equation?

I think that "taking it one step further" as I described above would be achieved by the summation of: ( (all the percentages in the Buffalo row) * (the corresponding lottery percentage) ).

 

i.e., currently, (.94269)*(20.0) + (0.05174)*(13.5) + (0.00525)*(11.5) + ...   == slightly higher than 19.6%.

 

This makes sense, since it should be slightly below 20%

[Taro T]

You mean like the far right column ("30") here, right? http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHLlottery.html

 

Or were you thinking of taking it one step further, and computing the total odds of getting McDavid with the probability of winning the CHL also factored into the equation?

I'll see if I get a couple of minutes over the weekend to use these odds weighted over the lottery weighting. It'll be easy enough to do; just need to find the time to add that to a spreadsheet. Might (likely will) have to wait until next weekend to put together. Edited February 19, 2015 by Taro T

[WildCard]

Ahhh, my bad.

 

If you find a site that calcs that and looks reliable, I can post their results (w/ attribution, of course) in the standings. I won't have a chance to look for such a site for about 1 week. There's a site that Jeremy White is often referring to; it might be the one you mentioned above. It should be pretty easy to find the odds. Maybe we take it 1 step further and take that distribution of likely finishes and then weight it by the lottery weighting to give the ptobability of not just winning the CHL but of actually winning the REAL prize McDavid - would be very easy to do once somebody else has run the Monte Carlo simulations.

I think that "taking it one step further" as I described above would be achieved by the summation of: ( (all the percentages in the Buffalo row) * (the corresponding lottery percentage) ).

 

i.e., currently, (.94269)*(20.0) + (0.05174)*(13.5) + (0.00525)*(11.5) + ...   == slightly higher than 19.6%.

 

This makes sense, since it should be slightly below 20%

I like the idea of taking into account the lottery odds with the CHL odds, but after seeing your math Cereal I think it will always result in ~lottery odds, with the % difference being negligible at 2%. It'd still make an interesting addition to the charts, an "Adjusted lottery percentage" or something along those lines.

 

What I'd like to know is how that website calculates their seeding odds. 94% chance of winning the CHL? That seems high; either that or some of us are panicking for no reaseon 

[Cereal]

I'll see if I get a couple of minutes over the weekend to use these odds weighted over the lottery weighting. It'll be easy enough to do; just need to find the time to add that to a spreadsheet. Might (likely will) have to wait until next weekend to put together.

I am curious, and maybe this has been discussed before...

 

Do you have a program that programmatically pulls the current NHL standings from the website each night?  Seems like the whole thing could be automated, and would be pretty fun to set up.

 

You could likewise pull the stats from sportsclubstats.

I like the idea of taking into account the lottery odds with the CHL odds, but after seeing your math Cereal I think it will always result in ~lottery odds, with the % difference being negligible at 2%. It'd still make an interesting addition to the charts, an "Adjusted lottery percentage" or something along those lines.

That is only the case because the Sabres are at so close to 100%.  It'd be more interesting for those teams with a more distributed row at the sportsclubstats lottery chart; again: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHLlottery.html

 

What I'd like to know is how that website calculates their seeding odds. 94% chance of winning the CHL? That seems high; either that or some of us are panicking for no reaseon 

I assume they calculate the odds of winning every remaining game on the schedule based on all previous results this season.

 

It explains "Weighted" here (as opposed to viewing their charts using "50/50" link on the left): http://www.sportsclubstats.com/WhatIsThis.html... don't have time to read now haha.

[That Aud Smell]

That's the thing with secret admirers, they always get outted.  And soooo close to Valentine's Day too. :blush:

Ha. Nice.

 

It just would have been nice if he would have thrown Taro a bone,  it was Identical. The numbers could not be different, but headings, arrangement and abbreviations ...Identical.  We would have flocked to the site to read the article and pay homage to Taro on SS and give props to Riter.

Precisely. Having said upthread that they're not bad guys, I will now say that I don't think much of people who knock off someone else's creativity without due credit and/or attribution.

[SabresFuture]

SportsClubStats runs millions of simulations based on current record and future opponents to calculate the odds of finishing in a certain position. 

 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Atlantic/Buffalo.html

[WildCard]

That is only the case because the Sabres are at so close to 100%.  It'd be more interesting for those teams with a more distributed row at the sportsclubstats lottery chart; again: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHLlottery.html

 

I assume they calculate the odds of winning every remaining game on the schedule based on all previous results this season.

 

It explains "Weighted" here (as opposed to viewing their charts using "50/50" link on the left): http://www.sportsclubstats.com/WhatIsThis.html... don't have time to read now haha.

SportsClubStats runs millions of simulations based on current record and future opponents to calculate the odds of finishing in a certain position. 

 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Atlantic/Buffalo.html

Thanks for the links. I did a quick glance over of them and they seem really interesting. I'll have to do a closer look tomorrow night or so (studying for a physics test tomorrow morning).