Trade speculation 2014-15

[LabattBlue]

Larkin and a #1 isn't nearly enough IMHO. It's gotta be a no-BS top-line forward who can produce 30 goals or 75 pts or I'm not interested.

What has Myers done that would make you believe he can get you a 30 goal/75 point forward in return? While he is not at the trainwreck level he has played at in past years, he is not exactly "all-star" caliber material.

[darksabre]

Over the last week I have been trying to read up on the Myers situation and the Detroit situation. Detroit has been seeking a top 2 guy since the departure of Lidstrom and Rafalski. They definitely believe Myers to be able to fill that void and I think he could. So that begs the question what does Detroit possess that Buffalo could want?

 

The first is obvious, Anthony Mantha. With 57goals in 57 games last year in the Q, the 6'5" 207lb winger is ideal for Buffalo. Imagine 20yr old Reinhart passing to 21yr old Mantha. Things would get done, glorious things. The issue being that behind Mantha at RW they have... practically nothing. Thomas Jurco is the next RW guy and he has far less skill than Mantha. It really leaves them wanting.

 

The next obvious is Gustav Nyquist. The talented LW blew up the NHL last year with 28goals in 57games. He is a bit older (25) but is still a very good player. They have a little more depth at LW but Nyquist is easily the best they have.

 

Finally they other and probably bottom option out of Detroit, Dylan Larkin. He won't be 19 until July and is currently playing hockey at U. of Michigan. Here is his draft profile http://lastwordonspo...3-dylan-larkin/ as being also asked to play Center, Larkin is noted for a strong 2-way game and a shoot first type of player. The catch with Larkin having the ability to play center, it could mean he is the predecessor to Datsyuk in a few years.

 

If you are trading Tyler Myers and are Tim Murray, one of those 3 is coming back plus. With Mantha and Nyquist the plus will be much lower. With Larkin it shouldn't. I wouldn't hazard a guess at the actual price but remember the power in any negotiation lies with who cares least. Tim Murray should care least because we don't have any reason to trade Myers.

 

Solid post. I think you are right about everything here.

[TrueBlueGED]

Expecting a top line forward is not the same thing as saying you wouldn't trade him for less than that.

A team with lots of prospects and no proven young defencemen should not be trading a guy of Myers age, contract and skill set for more prospects unless the prospect coming back is special.

 

Well, by this standard, he's completely untradeable. I'm in no hurry to trade him since I think his potential outweighs the middling packages his play of the past two years would attract. But in the abstract, short of a legit superstar, I don't think a last place team should have an untradeable player.

[LGR4GM]

Well, by this standard, he's completely untradeable. I'm in no hurry to trade him since I think his potential outweighs the middling packages his play of the past two years would attract. But in the abstract, short of a legit superstar, I don't think a last place team should have an untradeable player.

Exactly, except Zemgus... who knows what his ceiling is.

[nfreeman]

What has Myers done that would make you believe he can get you a 30 goal/75 point forward in return? While he is not at the trainwreck level he has played at in past years, he is not exactly "all-star" caliber material.

 

It's a fair question, and I don't think Myers at this point in time would yield that guy in trade -- although I was thinking more about a young forward (like Mantha, evidently) whom the professionals project to get there than a guy who's already at that level in the NHL.

 

Either way, my real point is that I'd rather keep Myers than trade him for a forward who isn't a guy who can get to that level.

[Taro T]

 

 

I'm impressed that you nailed me as the message board assailant, with so many lovely OCD-correcters here. Bravo!

Passive-aggressiveness becomes you. Impressive.

[LastPommerFan]

Passive-aggressiveness becomes you. Impressive.

 

eeek. sorry. I wasn't trying to be passive aggressive, just cheeky. :)

[LTS]

Myers had 10 even strength points all of last year (124th among league d-men) and a ES points per 60 minutes played of 0.60 (157th). And, only 5 ES points the year before (worst among Sabres d-men that year). And his iFenwick and iCorsi and whatever advanced stat folks like were similar - well outside the top 100 defensemen in the league. Even with a terrible supporting cast, those number should be better for a so-called "elite" all-around defenseman. He has looked okay so far this year, but still has no points despite being 8th in the NHL in ice time. And, unless you're seeing something I'm not, he certainly isn't controlling possession. Maybe we just have different definitions of "great."

 

My thought is if we're going to overhaul this team, lets overhaul it. If Murray can get a big return for Myers, I'm personally for it. If not then keep him around.

 

On a team that can't score goals how do you expect a D man to post up points? I guess I can go back and see how those two statistical measurements counteract that but I think on a team that doesn't score and doesn't shoot the stats are bound to look pretty bad. As for this year, you have to look at the goals that have been scored (the few ones that have). Was he on the ice for any of them and then how many assists were there? How were those goals scored? At least three of the goals have been created by the forwards causing a turnover outside of the D zone. Very little chance for Myers to be involved.

 

Right now he's the best D on the ice for the Sabres and he's an even 0 in +/- on a team that is getting scored upon.

 

I think his is a situation where the abysmal supporting cast really can make a player look worse than he is.

 

What has Myers done that would make you believe he can get you a 30 goal/75 point forward in return? While he is not at the trainwreck level he has played at in past years, he is not exactly "all-star" caliber material.

 

Nothing because if he could then the trade would have happened right? However, if a team like the Red Wings, known for being great talent evaluators, are interested in him for a top pairing then who are we, as fans, to develop a counter opinion? I would trust the Detroit viewpoint more than anyone on this or any other board.

 

Well, by this standard, he's completely untradeable. I'm in no hurry to trade him since I think his potential outweighs the middling packages his play of the past two years would attract. But in the abstract, short of a legit superstar, I don't think a last place team should have an untradeable player.

 

At some point a team has to keep players. I think you know that. While every player on the team over the past two years has looked extremely bad there are some that will look really good when the team improves. The Sabres can't just trade players away unless someone gets stupid. The Sabres are stacked at the prospect level and will need to move some of them in the next few years. They can bet on other players replacing Myers but none of the D to date have shown that they will. As fans I think we are always looking to the next prospect to be the guy to replace a current player on the team. To that end though, Myers won the Calder. None of our D are going to win it this year. Why should we believe any of them are better or will be better than Myers?

[Brawndo]

Over the last week I have been trying to read up on the Myers situation and the Detroit situation. Detroit has been seeking a top 2 guy since the departure of Lidstrom and Rafalski. They definitely believe Myers to be able to fill that void and I think he could. So that begs the question what does Detroit possess that Buffalo could want?

 

The first is obvious, Anthony Mantha. With 57goals in 57 games last year in the Q, the 6'5" 207lb winger is ideal for Buffalo. Imagine 20yr old Reinhart passing to 21yr old Mantha. Things would get done, glorious things. The issue being that behind Mantha at RW they have... practically nothing. Thomas Jurco is the next RW guy and he has far less skill than Mantha. It really leaves them wanting.

 

The next obvious is Gustav Nyquist. The talented LW blew up the NHL last year with 28goals in 57games. He is a bit older (25) but is still a very good player. They have a little more depth at LW but Nyquist is easily the best they have.

 

Finally they other and probably bottom option out of Detroit, Dylan Larkin. He won't be 19 until July and is currently playing hockey at U. of Michigan. Here is his draft profile http://lastwordonspo...3-dylan-larkin/ as being also asked to play Center, Larkin is noted for a strong 2-way game and a shoot first type of player. The catch with Larkin having the ability to play center, it could mean he is the predecessor to Datsyuk in a few years.

 

If you are trading Tyler Myers and are Tim Murray, one of those 3 is coming back plus. With Mantha and Nyquist the plus will be much lower. With Larkin it shouldn't. I wouldn't hazard a guess at the actual price but remember the power in any negotiation lies with who cares least. Tim Murray should care least because we don't have any reason to trade Myers.

 

Their lack of depth on RW is where it gets interesting. Murray could conceivably add either Stewart or Stafford to the package to make it more attractive and increase the size/value of the return.

[LGR4GM]

Their lack of depth on RW is where it gets interesting. Murray could conceivably add either Stewart or Stafford to the package to make it more attractive and increase the size/value of the return.

True. The one thing to remember about Buffalo is that we have Armia, Bailey, Baptiste, and Fasching all listed as RW prospects. That gives Murray another reason not to overpay for Mantha, we realistically could use him but we don't have to have him.

 

No I am not saying Mantha isn't as good as the players I listed just that we have talent and depth in our prospect pool on the right side.

[Brawndo]

True. The one thing to remember about Buffalo is that we have Armia, Bailey, Baptiste, and Fasching all listed as RW prospects. That gives Murray another reason not to overpay for Mantha, we realistically could use him but we don't have to have him.

 

No I am not saying Mantha isn't as good as the players I listed just that we have talent and depth in our prospect pool on the right side.

 

Good point .

 

 

Its possible since Mantha has a higher ceiling, one of them could be traded instead.

[MattPie]

On a team that can't score goals how do you expect a D man to post up points? I guess I can go back and see how those two statistical measurements counteract that but I think on a team that doesn't score and doesn't shoot the stats are bound to look pretty bad. As for this year, you have to look at the goals that have been scored (the few ones that have). Was he on the ice for any of them and then how many assists were there? How were those goals scored? At least three of the goals have been created by the forwards causing a turnover outside of the D zone. Very little chance for Myers to be involved.

 

I agree. You'd have to at least do something like player_points * league_average_team_goals / players_team_goals to (somewhat) account for the team output.

#DancyStats

[Iron Crotch]

I agree. You'd have to at least do something like player_points * league_average_team_goals / players_team_goals to (somewhat) account for the team output.

#DancyStats

 

It is simple. You do a relative comparison to others on the same team (i.e. with the same supporting cast) controlling for ice time (points per 60 minutes of ice time) and situation (5-on-5 play). Again, Myers was the worst defensemen on the team in even strength scoring 2 years ago. Dead last. Sulzer, Weber, etc. all ahead of him. Last year he was better, but still a distant second to The Hoff (slightly ahead of McBain). This year the sample size is too small to really say much yet.

 

That said, I am generally of the opinion that an "elite" player should lift the play of those around him rather than be beholden to the supporting cast. I don't dislike Myers and I think he is a really good penalty killer because of his reach... but I just don't see the flashes of greatness that others around here seem to see. But, maybe/hopefully this will be his breakthrough season.

[K-9]

It is simple. You do a relative comparison to others on the same team (i.e. with the same supporting cast) controlling for ice time (points per 60 minutes of ice time) and situation (5-on-5 play). Again, Myers was the worst defensemen on the team in even strength scoring 2 years ago. Dead last. Sulzer, Weber, etc. all ahead of him. Last year he was better, but still a distant second to The Hoff (slightly ahead of McBain). This year the sample size is too small to really say much yet.

 

That said, I am generally of the opinion that an "elite" player should lift the play of those around him rather than be beholden to the supporting cast. I don't dislike Myers and I think he is a really good penalty killer because of his reach... but I just don't see the flashes of greatness that others around here seem to see. But, maybe/hopefully this will be his breakthrough season.

 

Detroit, perhaps the best organization at recognizing talent, sees it as well.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[dudacek]

 

 

It is simple. You do a relative comparison to others on the same team (i.e. with the same supporting cast) controlling for ice time (points per 60 minutes of ice time) and situation (5-on-5 play). Again, Myers was the worst defensemen on the team in even strength scoring 2 years ago. Dead last. Sulzer, Weber, etc. all ahead of him. Last year he was better, but still a distant second to The Hoff (slightly ahead of McBain). This year the sample size is too small to really say much yet.

 

That said, I am generally of the opinion that an "elite" player should lift the play of those around him rather than be beholden to the supporting cast. I don't dislike Myers and I think he is a really good penalty killer because of his reach... but I just don't see the flashes of greatness that others around here seem to see. But, maybe/hopefully this will be his breakthrough season.

I believe he's been on for two against this year and one of those was on the power play.

He has been playing a ton against Toews and Getzlaf and Perry among others.

You're right, it's a small sample size, but his relative Fenwick, or whatever the hell they call it should be pretty good right now.

More to the point, how many defenders are that big, skate that well and can play in every situation?

 

I'm starting to sound like a ###### fanboi so I am going to say he was bad two years ago but he's been a lot better in the past calendar year. He's turned the corner and we should keep him.

 

And now I am going to stop posting about him for a while.

Edited October 16, 2014 by dudacek

[IKnowPhysics]

So, there's a tangible reason Myers is getting a lot attention to start the season. As pointed out by Die by the Blade, using data from War On Ice, Myers and Gorges are the best players on the team right now. They're playing the toughest competition and have the best Corsi numbers. Benoit and Meszaros are the worst- they're playing sheltered minutes and blowing at it. Granted that this is a small sample, but it's pretty clear who stinks and whose attracting the interest of other teams.

 

One way to get other teams interested in a player in the modern NHL: get their advanced stats guys to get a big rubbery one for said player.

Edited October 16, 2014 by IKnowPhysics

[darksabre]

So, there's a tangible reason Myers is getting a lot attention to start the season. As pointed out by Die by the Blade, using data from War On Ice, Myers and Gorges are the best players on the team right now. They're playing the toughest competition and have the best Corsi numbers. Benoit and Meszaros are the worst- they're playing sheltered minutes and blowing at it. Granted that this is a small sample, but it's pretty clear who stinks and whose attracting the interest of other teams.

 

One way to get other teams interested in a player in the modern NHL: get their advanced stats guys to get a big rubbery one for said player.

 

I'll continue banging the drum for the brilliance that is GMTM managing to get Gorges to pair with Myers. We haven't had a defensive pair that makes so much sense since maybe Tallinder/Lydman?

[Iron Crotch]

So, there's a tangible reason Myers is getting a lot attention to start the season. As pointed out by Die by the Blade, using data from War On Ice, Myers and Gorges are the best players on the team right now. They're playing the toughest competition and have the best Corsi numbers. Benoit and Meszaros are the worst- they're playing sheltered minutes and blowing at it. Granted that this is a small sample, but it's pretty clear who stinks and whose attracting the interest of other teams.

 

One way to get other teams interested in a player in the modern NHL: get their advanced stats guys to get a big rubbery one for said player.

 

 

Using the relative Corsi numbers, yes the Myers-Gorges pair is better than the the Meszaros-Benoit or Weber-Risto pairs... but we're last in the league in team shots at 20.8 per game (next closest is Calgary at 24.2 per game) and we're last in the league in shots against at 39.0 per game (Colorado is next closest at 37.5 per game). And, every guy on the roster has a terrible absolute Corsi number (i.e., we've getting outshot no matter who is on the ice). So, I think we're celebrating that they're the "least bad" of a bunch of bad players. ;)

[IKnowPhysics]

Using the relative Corsi numbers, yes the Myers-Gorges pair is better than the the Meszaros-Benoit or Weber-Risto pairs... but we're last in the league in team shots at 20.8 per game (next closest is Calgary at 24.2 per game) and we're last in the league in shots against at 39.0 per game (Colorado is next closest at 37.5 per game). And, every guy on the roster has a terrible absolute Corsi number (i.e., we've getting outshot no matter who is on the ice). So, I think we're celebrating that they're the "least bad" of a bunch of bad players. ;)

 

This is true, but looking amongst all defensemen in the league, they're still playing some of the toughest minutes and their absolute (or non-relative) corsi is about average. That, to me, is somewhat impressive by itself, especially considering Myers' long journey. It becomes quite spectacular when you put in the context of our shitfest. These guys are in a tough situation and they're handling it.

Edited October 16, 2014 by IKnowPhysics

[Huckleberry]

Ok im drunk right now, but i don't feel like shittign around this anymore.

 

If detroit/anaheim didn't think he is the missing link on their blue line, this thread probably wouldn't happen.

They see value in him, probably not wiling to give much up for it, fair game.

 

I'm just happy so many are pissed off about the low ball offer floating around for myers, most of us have come around on him and want him to stay with us.

So i say ###### all the rest, lets keep our little marfan :P

 

I'll continue banging the drum for the brilliance that is GMTM managing to get Gorges to pair with Myers. We haven't had a defensive pair that makes so much sense since maybe Tallinder/Lydman?

 

I'd say tallinder/myers rookie

[drnkirishone]

I'd say tallinder/myers rookie

Hank and Toni was a thing of beauty as a defensive pair until injuries became a issue. On paper Myers and Gorges could be the best paring I have seen in a sabres sweater. Not this year mind you. but in a season or 2 it could be real good

[Iron Crotch]

This is true, but looking amongst all defensemen in the league, they're still playing some of the toughest minutes and their absolute (or non-relative) corsi is about average. That, to me, is somewhat impressive by itself, especially considering Myers' long journey. It becomes quite spectacular when you put in the context of our shitfest. These guys are in a tough situation and they're handling it.

 

I show Myers has a 5-on-5 iFenwick of -23 and a iCorsi of -29. How do you figure that is "about average?" BTW - I like behindthenet.ca since it is easier to manipulate, but I think it is a game behind. (http://www.behindthe... 52 53 54 55 56)

 

On the flipside these stats pretty clearly show what a trainwreck Benoit and Meszaros have been thus far.

[X. Benedict]

I show Myers has a 5-on-5 iFenwick of -23 and a iCorsi of -29. How do you figure that is "about average?" BTW - I like behindthenet.ca since it is easier to manipulate, but I think it is a game behind. (http://www.behindthe... 52 53 54 55 56)

 

On the flipside these stats pretty clearly show what a trainwreck Benoit and Meszaros have been thus far.

 

On bad teams, you want to look at relative to team. I don't know what Myers is there, but I'd bet relative to Beano and Meszo he's a stud.

Edited October 17, 2014 by X. Benedict

[LGR4GM]

So little more trickling out about the Detroit stuff. Seems like Dylan Larkin is a possible piece to a Myers trade (if it were to happen) and everything I can find has said Mantha isn't on the table. I am not sure if Larkin is a center piece that gets TM really eager to move Myers, and for the record I really like Larkin.

[X. Benedict]

So little more trickling out about the Detroit stuff. Seems like Dylan Larkin is a possible piece to a Myers trade (if it were to happen) and everything I can find has said Mantha isn't on the table. I am not sure if Larkin is a center piece that gets TM really eager to move Myers, and for the record I really like Larkin.

 

Nah....Murray can sit and wait. As Injuries mount with D league- wide.. There is really no need to trade Myers, so Murray can hang out, sip some coffee and wait for a jackpot.