Trade speculation 2014-15

[Iron Crotch]

I can't believe that even player personnel move in the NHL is somehow related back to the Sabres.

 

Just to entertain the ridiculousness for a minute, didn't Myers head case issues START UNDER LINDY RUFF. wouldn't they even the last team thinking of acquiring Myers?

 

Right now the Stars are the 2nd worst defensive team in the league, but they score like crazy with forwards like Seguin, Spezza, and Jamie Benn who Myers played with in Juniors. They need a penalty killing (right-handed) defenseman, which Myers does very well. The question is what would the part with to get a guy like Myers?

 

We have Pysyk waiting around in Rochester and a glaring hole at center. The speculation seems reasonable IMHO.

Edited November 11, 2014 by Potato

[X. Benedict]

 

I can't believe that even player personnel move in the NHL is somehow related back to the Sabres.

 

Just to entertain the ridiculousness for a minute, didn't Myers head case issues START UNDER LINDY RUFF. wouldn't they even the last team thinking of acquiring Myers?

 

He also won the Calder with him.

 

[Robviously]

What is Dallas going to be sending back if the deal is completed ?

Nichushkin? Dickinson? Honka?

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

Quick reality check.....where are my analytics people and why do I not see this out there?

 

Tyson Strachan has 50% more points than Myers with only 28% of the ice time......

[bunomatic]

Quick reality check.....where are my analytics people and why do I not see this out there?

 

Tyson Strachan has 50% more points than Myers with only 28% of the ice time......

 

Yup. And a fraction of the salary and cap hit.

[Iron Crotch]

Quick reality check.....where are my analytics people and why do I not see this out there?

 

Tyson Strachan has 50% more points than Myers with only 28% of the ice time......

 

I posted that somewhere-er-other when I was griping about Myers' lack of offensive production. I do like Myers' defensive game this season. And, I think he is a heck of a penalty killer due to his reach. But, for a guy to be on the ice 25-30 minutes a game, play on the first power play unit, and have almost no points is... not good.

[X. Benedict]

I posted that somewhere-er-other when I was griping about Myers' lack of offensive production. I do like Myers' defensive game this season. And, I think he is a heck of a penalty killer due to his reach. But, for a guy to be on the ice 25-30 minutes a game, play on the first power play unit, and have almost no points is... not good.

 

He is getting shots through. That's really more important. Just nobody in front of net.

 

 

 

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[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

I'm just having a little fun with it....but seriously, if the Sabres were able to get the Russian Bear for him....do it in a second...

 

It actually makes perfect sense....A potential 230lb brute of a forward who already shows 30 goal potential for a headcase, passive defenseman that Lindy can control. Par for the course in the few amount of decades I've been on this earth and seen.....

[Iron Crotch]

.-.-.

/_____\

:._|_|_.:

|/a> a>\|

_.-: ( ;._

,'::::\ _ /:::`-._

/:::::::`._,'|:::::::`._

/:::::_.--`._,'-.::::::::`.

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|:. -.\: `;:;'.' :

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: | |' ,',' /:/ /

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/:\ : ,'_,:',' /:/ /

/ `:._\,'.`.`, -.';','

:`-._`:/ >._>.' .;\'

|`-._`:,',/_ ,'

|::::;',' ; `-'':

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Nice! :thumbsup:

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

Yeah....Tyson isn't getting shots through....he hasn't taken one yet and I haven't seen him rush the puck but once or twice to the 80 or so for Myers....yet there he sits with more offensive production in a pittance of the ice time.

 

I hereby submit a proposal for board vote. All in favor of autocorrecting any mention of "Tyler Myers" to "Marfan Kevin Haller"....please vote, yea......

 

Nice! :thumbsup:

 

Was that his echocardiogram?

[TrueBlueGED]

Quick reality check.....where are my analytics people and why do I not see this out there?

 

Tyson Strachan has 50% more points than Myers with only 28% of the ice time......

 

Because the real analytics people know that points from a defenseman is not the best way to measure their offensive contribution ;)

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

This is the last bit of hope I have. There should have been a scorched earth policy when Pegula bought this mess. You can still do it...even though it probably cost us 6-8 years.

 

Myers, Hodgson, Foligno need to go.

 

As much as I like Ennis, Weber, Enroth....maybe they need to go.

 

The more you roll over rosters with the old crew, the greater chance of infection. Are Gionta and Moulson mailing it in? At what point does Gorges just say, "F-it!" ?

 

Girgs is developing as an all-around player and his offensive ceiling looks to be at the high point of what we hoped for, but yet he still isn't taking those leadership opportunities that are so crucial. Yes, few penalties and gives a solid effort, but way too safe if he wants to be very good or great. He looks happy with being "Sabre Very Good" at this point.

 

I'm grasping at whatever little meat is left on this carcas of a franchise. I don't know when games are on, I watch football if it up against them, even Houston/Oakland......it's just beyond sad.

 

I actually want to check out the sports bar at some point but will wait until the luster wears off in Feb or March.

 

Please.....some hope.....

 

Because the real analytics people know that points from a defenseman is not the best way to measure their offensive contribution ;)

 

So, he "breaks out of his own zone" really well, which in turn leads to opposing 2 on 1's and a -6 rating compared to Strachan?

 

Does he "play against the quality opposition's best players" for 26 minutes a game?

 

So...a few questions....

 

How many times has Myers been in the penalty box when an opposition goal is scored? Why is this stat never mentioned when taking account for things?

 

How many PP minutes has Myers seen as opposed to Strachan?

 

I'd bet dollars to donuts that Strachan starts in the d-zone more than Myers on a % basis.

 

 

Show me the goods!........ :)

[LGR4GM]

So, he "breaks out of his own zone" really well, which in turn leads to opposing 2 on 1's and a -6 rating compared to Strachan?

 

Does he "play against the quality opposition's best players" for 26 minutes a game?

 

So...a few questions....

 

How many times has Myers been in the penalty box when an opposition goal is scored? Why is this stat never mentioned when taking account for things?

 

How many PP minutes has Myers seen as opposed to Strachan?

 

I'd bet dollars to donuts that Strachan starts in the d-zone more than Myers on a % basis.

 

 

Show me the goods!........ :)

The team as a whole is not scoring. Typically defenders get points from assists (Strachan) so since the team isn't scoring the defenders aren't scoring. Should we draw you a map? A technically readout perhaps? If the team isn't scoring why should Tyler Myers be scoring?

[Iron Crotch]

Because the real analytics people know that points from a defenseman is not the best way to measure their offensive contribution ;)

 

Goals for and goals against are really ALL that matters. Hits, being in position, looking good on the rush, standing up for your teammates, etc. isn't the most direct measure of what wins games. A fundamental rule of statistical analysis is to measure what matters most.

 

By extension, a reasonable theory: If a team can't score, those who are playing most contribute to (rather than inhibit) that lack of scoring.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

The team as a whole is not scoring. Typically defenders get points from assists (Strachan) so since the team isn't scoring the defenders aren't scoring. Should we draw you a map? A technically readout perhaps? If the team isn't scoring why should Tyler Myers be scoring?

 

Strachan is scoring at 400% the clip that Myers is...... why is that? We are 20% through the season....so if that is too small a sample size, then winning a Calder under Lindy for 20% of Myers' career should also be too small a sample size......

 

You don't have to draw me a map....I know where the septic tank on my property is......

[LGR4GM]

Strachan is scoring at 400% the clip that Myers is...... why is that? We are 20% through the season....so if that is too small a sample size, then winning a Calder under Lindy for 20% of Myers' career should also be too small a sample size......

 

You don't have to draw me a map....I know where the septic tank on my property is......

Yes scoring in 2 games is too small of a sample size. You know that. I have said multiple times that I don't think Myers will ever be the #1 stud his rookie year made him look like. I think he will never be able to think the game fast enough to do that. That being said, he is 1 of only maybe 3 players on the Sabres roster that you could consider NHL defenders.

 

Good you should know where the tank is or you might accidentally dig it up.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

Yes scoring in 2 games is too small of a sample size. You know that. I have said multiple times that I don't think Myers will ever be the #1 stud his rookie year made him look like. I think he will never be able to think the game fast enough to do that. That being said, he is 1 of only maybe 3 players on the Sabres roster that you could consider NHL defenders.

 

Good you should know where the tank is or you might accidentally dig it up.

 

I'm not a tank fan.....I enjoy melding with the rest of the public sewage.....

[qwksndmonster]

Strachan is scoring at 400% the clip that Myers is...... why is that? We are 20% through the season....so if that is too small a sample size, then winning a Calder under Lindy for 20% of Myers' career should also be too small a sample size......

 

You don't have to draw me a map....I know where the septic tank on my property is......

Hey Mr. eye test, did you watch Strachan play at all? Coming up with pointless stats doesn't demonstrate that advanced statistics are "wrong" somehow. It just shows that you don't understand how stats work, or more likely don't choose to understand, given your head for numbers.

 

As long as we have forwards who don't know which end of the stick goes down, I'll continue to not worry about lack of offensive production from D-men.

Edited November 11, 2014 by qwksndmonster

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

Hey Mr. eye test, did you watch Strachan play at all? Coming up with pointless stats doesn't demonstrate that advanced statistics are "wrong" somehow. It just shows that you don't understand how stats work, or more likely don't choose to understand, given your head for numbers.

 

As long as we have forwards who don't know which end of the stick goes down, I'll continue to not worry about lack of offensive production from D-men.

 

:)

 

I think I've given plenty of advanced stats in this example....

 

My eye test goes with Mrs. Swamp. I've seen Myers take more Sunday Strolls than Nana coming home from church....

[TrueBlueGED]

So, he "breaks out of his own zone" really well, which in turn leads to opposing 2 on 1's and a -6 rating compared to Strachan?

 

Does he "play against the quality opposition's best players" for 26 minutes a game?

 

So...a few questions....

 

How many times has Myers been in the penalty box when an opposition goal is scored? Why is this stat never mentioned when taking account for things?

 

How many PP minutes has Myers seen as opposed to Strachan?

 

I'd bet dollars to donuts that Strachan starts in the d-zone more than Myers on a % basis.

 

 

Show me the goods!........ :)

 

1) I'm not even sure how this is a question. Never mind, it isn't. On the other hand, if I had an NHL team's analytics department to work with, I could actually address this.

 

2) Why yes, yes he does. The competition Strachan is facing isn't even in the same stratosphere.

 

3) I don't know, and I'm also not really sure why it's relevant. If you're going to say that the best Dmen need to stay out of the box, then that kind of runs counter to your love of tough, physical play since those types tend to take more penalties.

 

4) I'm too lazy to look up the exact number, but it's certainly many many more.

 

5) How many donuts are we talking here? Myers has started in the offensive zone 35.5% of the time (team low among defensmen), while Strachan has started there 46.4% of the time.

 

Goals for and goals against are really ALL that matters. Hits, being in position, looking good on the rush, standing up for your teammates, etc. isn't the most direct measure of what wins games. A fundamental rule of statistical analysis is to measure what matters most.

 

By extension, a reasonable theory: If a team can't score, those who are playing most contribute to (rather than inhibit) that lack of scoring.

 

You're right, goals for and goals against are the most direct measure of what won games...but they are *not* the best predictor of what will win games. A team can win a game when a goaltender puts up a .955 SV% and the team shoots 20%, which of course translates to more goals for and fewer against. That's all well and good, but it doesn't tell us jack about what's going to happen later on when those percentages drop down to earth. When analyzing hockey we have to care about what's going to happen as much as what has happened, and if what has happened is built on a house of statistical cards, it's not a good idea to use that to project forward...and in turn, probably not a good idea to analyze the past either. Offensive output from defensemen, and the related shooting and save percentages, have been shown to be highly unstable from game to game and season to season. Possession numbers, on the other hand, are very consistent throughout the season and across seasons. This little debate, in my view, is why these new statistics have had such trouble catching on: the traditional stats are better at explaining the outcomes that have happened, while the new stuff is *much* better at predicting the outcomes which have yet to happen. Most people tend to gravitate towards the explanatory power of the traditional stats, but I think that's the wrong way to go about evaluation. At the very least, if we're going to use the traditional stats, it should be done with an eye towards sustainability and a respect of the context in which they took place.

 

With respect to Strachan in particular, he's getting cushy zone starts and facing easy competition...and the team's SH% when he's on the ice is a whopping 9.09 and SV% is .944, giving us a fun PDO of 1035 (for the uninitiated, this regresses *hard* towards 1000 over the course of a full season). Even elite players are unlikely to maintain a PDO of that level, and I know nobody here is going to argue Strachan is an elite player. These underlying numbers explain fully why Strachan has been so much "better" offensively than Myers. Strachan is "on pace" for .5 points per game, which he hasn't even approached in his career. Do you think he's going to maintain this pace? If you don't, then you're implicitly saying that the underlying stuff has meaning and value, and goals for/against aren't the only thing that matters. For comparison sake, Shea Weber is averaging .43 points per game...do you believe Strachan is going to finish the year ahead of Weber by this metric?

 

Myers has been getting brutal minutes, and hasn't done very well with them, but most of the defensemen we see putting up big offensive numbers have been given at least somewhat easier minutes (and some significantly so). If you were to give Strachan's minutes to Myers, I bet you'd see more point production...but you'd probably also see the opposing team scoring more often because Strachan would be a trainwreck in Myers' minutes. Which is really the entire point--Myers is currently the best we have, and trading him because he's not good enough at what he's being tasked with isn't necessarily the right route, because somebody less capable than him is then going to have to handle those minutes. You've said all along you think Myers is a 2nd pairing Dman, and at this point I'm inclined to agree. So we have a 2nd pairing Dman being given 1st pairing minutes, and it's not working out too well. But what if we trade him and we end up giving a 3rd pairing Dman 1st pairing minutes? My guess is it ends up worse. I think we're in danger of letting the perfect be the enemy of the good. The ideal solution isn't trading Myers because he's having a rough time on the 1st pairing, it's acquiring (or developing) a Dman to take those minutes away so he can properly slot into the 2nd pairing.

 

Having said all of that, yes, I would trade Myers for Nichushkin.

[Hoss]

Okay this Strachan-Myers debate is dumb...

 

It's three points versus two less than a third of the way into a season on a team that blows donkeys at scoring.

[qwksndmonster]

Golf clap for the king of advanced stats.

[LGR4GM]

PhD hit the nail on the head in his last paragraph. When we traded Pominville we saw the result of taking a player doing well and shipping him off and then plugging the gap with the refuse we had lying around. The results are still speaking for themselves. Think of it as a math problem. You have to get to 100 to have a playoff competitive team. The best defender is worth say 15. Myers is worth 10. If you subtract his 10 and replace it with a 4 (Stratchan on a good day) that leaves an even bigger gap between your team and the 100 level you need to reach.

[darksabre]

Okay this Strachan-Myers debate is dumb...

 

It's three points versus two less than a third of the way into a season on a team that blows donkeys at scoring.

 

Ah yup

 

Edited November 11, 2014 by d4rksabre

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

1) I'm not even sure how this is a question. Never mind, it isn't. On the other hand, if I had an NHL team's analytics department to work with, I could actually address this.

 

2) Why yes, yes he does. The competition Strachan is facing isn't even in the same stratosphere.

 

3) I don't know, and I'm also not really sure why it's relevant. If you're going to say that the best Dmen need to stay out of the box, then that kind of runs counter to your love of tough, physical play since those types tend to take more penalties.

 

4) I'm too lazy to look up the exact number, but it's certainly many many more.

 

5) How many donuts are we talking here? Myers has started in the offensive zone 35.5% of the time (team low among defensmen), while Strachan has started there 46.4% of the time.

 

 

 

You're right, goals for and goals against are the most direct measure of what won games...but they are *not* the best predictor of what will win games. A team can win a game when a goaltender puts up a .955 SV% and the team shoots 20%, which of course translates to more goals for and fewer against. That's all well and good, but it doesn't tell us jack about what's going to happen later on when those percentages drop down to earth. When analyzing hockey we have to care about what's going to happen as much as what has happened, and if what has happened is built on a house of statistical cards, it's not a good idea to use that to project forward...and in turn, probably not a good idea to analyze the past either. Offensive output from defensemen, and the related shooting and save percentages, have been shown to be highly unstable from game to game and season to season. Possession numbers, on the other hand, are very consistent throughout the season and across seasons. This little debate, in my view, is why these new statistics have had such trouble catching on: the traditional stats are better at explaining the outcomes that have happened, while the new stuff is *much* better at predicting the outcomes which have yet to happen. Most people tend to gravitate towards the explanatory power of the traditional stats, but I think that's the wrong way to go about evaluation. At the very least, if we're going to use the traditional stats, it should be done with an eye towards sustainability and a respect of the context in which they took place.

 

With respect to Strachan in particular, he's getting cushy zone starts and facing easy competition...and the team's SH% when he's on the ice is a whopping 9.09 and SV% is .944, giving us a fun PDO of 1035 (for the uninitiated, this regresses *hard* towards 1000 over the course of a full season). Even elite players are unlikely to maintain a PDO of that level, and I know nobody here is going to argue Strachan is an elite player. These underlying numbers explain fully why Strachan has been so much "better" offensively than Myers. Strachan is "on pace" for .5 points per game, which he hasn't even approached in his career. Do you think he's going to maintain this pace? If you don't, then you're implicitly saying that the underlying stuff has meaning and value, and goals for/against aren't the only thing that matters. For comparison sake, Shea Weber is averaging .43 points per game...do you believe Strachan is going to finish the year ahead of Weber by this metric?

 

Myers has been getting brutal minutes, and hasn't done very well with them, but most of the defensemen we see putting up big offensive numbers have been given at least somewhat easier minutes (and some significantly so). If you were to give Strachan's minutes to Myers, I bet you'd see more point production...but you'd probably also see the opposing team scoring more often because Strachan would be a trainwreck in Myers' minutes. Which is really the entire point--Myers is currently the best we have, and trading him because he's not good enough at what he's being tasked with isn't necessarily the right route, because somebody less capable than him is then going to have to handle those minutes. You've said all along you think Myers is a 2nd pairing Dman, and at this point I'm inclined to agree. So we have a 2nd pairing Dman being given 1st pairing minutes, and it's not working out too well. But what if we trade him and we end up giving a 3rd pairing Dman 1st pairing minutes? My guess is it ends up worse. I think we're in danger of letting the perfect be the enemy of the good. The ideal solution isn't trading Myers because he's having a rough time on the 1st pairing, it's acquiring (or developing) a Dman to take those minutes away so he can properly slot into the 2nd pairing.

 

Having said all of that, yes, I would trade Myers for Nichushkin.

 

God Bless You....

 

Just the fact that you felt the need to defend him to this point should be enough of an example that Myers is a bust compared to his reputation by some/many. SHould you ever have to compare a #8 fill-in defenseman to a $40 million "Norris Candidate"????

 

Okay this Strachan-Myers debate is dumb...

 

It's three points versus two less than a third of the way into a season on a team that blows donkeys at scoring.

 

I bet Myers starts on a flacid donkey, while Strachan's is already at mast. Just goes to show how much better Myers is......