Trade speculation 2014-15

[LGR4GM]

Everything points to this trade happening in the offseason at the draft or post July 1.  I somehow can't picture it going down during the season. 

[nfreeman]

I have trouble getting upset at somebody wanting the most money they can get. Especially when guys are cut loose and tossed aside all the time.

 

Well, this is applicable in the NFL, but not so much in the NHL, where the contracts are guaranteed.

 

Here's the thing.  If that's the ask, I tell the Avs that we'll just wait a year and sign RoR for no compensation. The Avs know they won't pay him top money and that RoR won't be giving any discounts. Every day this goes on the Avs leverage decreases. RoR gains the ability to essentially dictate terms to the Avs about where he will and won't re-sign which weeds out offers and depresses the trade market. All RoR has to do next year is tell teams that he won't sign an extension and they won't make a trade.  Teams certainly wouldn't agree to a trade without getting permission to speak to the agent in advance so RoR has a de facto no trade clause.

 

"Ryan we'd like to make a trade for you but we want to offer an extension first." "We want to test the market." "Ok, we'll call back in July." "Avs? about that trade, yeah we'll pass."

 

While you certianly wouldn't be guaranteed of getting RoR to sign as a UFA, he WILL sign with someone other than the Avs so from their perspective they need to get something for him while they can. If someone calls with a half decent offer for RoR the Avs almost have to take it rather than play chicken with a kid who has shown he won't flinch.

 

I think you are being overly optimistic here.  The Avs are going to auction him off, either at the deadline or this summer or both, and there will be plenty of interested bidders.  Not everyone will have the cash/cap space to make it happen, but there will be enough teams that do to drive up the price.

 

He will cost about what Kane cost or perhaps a bit less, but not much less.

 

I think a trade for ROR happening at the deadline could work. Murray already knows what it would take to sign ROR.  He also has a player on his team he can speak to regarding what he would like to do in the future and that player just happens to have an agent who also represents a player that fits the mold of what Murray wants.

 

Murray talking directly to the agent, even given their relationship, might be too obvious.  But talk to Kane who then just happens to talk to his agent about the kind of money it might take to get a guy that fits the mold of ROR into Buffalo to play with Kane is a bit harder to trace.

 

I wouldn't give up Ennis.  The Sabres don't have anyone like him on the roster.  I'm not sure they have anyone like him in the system.  He's starting to prove that he can be creative and control the puck.  He's playing with an edge to boot.  For me he and Girgensons are the soul of the forward ranks right now.  Both are hustling, attacking puck carriers, creating space and opportunity.  They are what the Sabres need.

 

The move by Girgensons to go to the net in the first period last night is indicative of the kind of player he will become.  He's sneaky.  He comes away from puck battles with the puck far more often than not.  That move last night didn't look to be anything and then all of a sudden he was around the defense. Boom.

 

I agree with just about all of this.  I don't want to give up either Ennis or Zemgus.

 

However, I can't escape the feeling that the price for ROR is going to include one of Ennis, Zemgus, Risto or Nikita.

 

Which goes back to my post that no trade will happen if the Avs don't grant permission for a team to negotiate an extension in advance of the trade.  If no agreement is reached no trade will be made.  Hence, RoR has a no-trade clause. If he doesn't want to be traded somewhere all he has to do is not agree to an extension. The trade will never happen.  For all we know this has happened already.

 

The problem is that the Avs can't grant this permission until the summer, because ROR can't sign an extension until the summer.

 

Not that this is the only metric but:

 

Zemgus: 0.383ppg, 0.172gpg

 

O'Reilly: 0.345ppg, 0.206gpg

 

So who do you want?  The potential flight risk you are going to have to overpay just to have for 1 year or the kid who's rights you own for another 4 years and is currently producing offense at a higher rate as a younger player.  Just some thoughts to mull over.

 

I'm with you on not trading Zemgus, but scoring totals aren't the primary factor in evaluating either of these players.

 

Each of them has a chance to become the long-awaited successor to Drury.

 

Using the Staal trade as a barometer (#8, Sutter, Dumoulin) I think we can construct something here.  Sutter is essentially a 26 year old, 30 point player, Dumoulin is a former 2nd round pick - decent prospect not a world beater and the #1 was a top 10 in a weak draft.

 

Looking at what we have on board to move Ennis, Pysyk or McCabe and our remaining low one is pretty darned close to that value and Staal didn't have nearly as many complicating factors as RoR. Those factors could push the price down a bit.

 

The Staal trade isn't really a good comparable IMHO because Carolina was the only trading partner -- he told the Rangers he wanted to play with Eric, and he had leverage because he was going to be a UFA, so they pretty much had to get what they could get from Carolina.

[TrueBlueGED]

There's no need to move Zemgus to get RoR. None. The Avs have 0 leverage.

Plenty of leverage. Simply, more than just the Sabres want him. Teams are most likely working under the assumption that he won't make UFA because some team will pay the price to secure him. It's also pretty obvious in Buffalo's case specifically that they want to start winning next year, not the year after. Also, if he's playing for Colorado, he isn't here to insulate our 2-3 rookie centers, which may slow their development or limit their immediate impact.

Edited February 20, 2015 by TrueBluePhD

[Johnny DangerFace]

Which goes back to my post that no trade will happen if the Avs don't grant permission for a team to negotiate an extension in advance of the trade.  If no agreement is reached no trade will be made.  Hence, RoR has a no-trade clause. If he doesn't want to be traded somewhere all he has to do is not agree to an extension. The trade will never happen.  For all we know this has happened already.

 

I could be incorrect, but the draft is in June, and he can't sign an extension until July.  Meaning we cant reach an agreement with him prior to receiving their 2015 1st.  

[Hoss]

The notion that the Avs have zero leverage is silly. They will have 20 teams calling them on O'Reilly... That's all the leverage they need.

[TrueBlueGED]

There's going to be plenty of GMs who won't take that at face value, they'll just assume it's a negotiating tactic and they can get him to sign for the right deal. And they're probably right.

[TrueBlueGED]

It's pretty simple if you're him. You make a really short list of places you want to play that are willing to pay top money. If they call fine, if not stay the course and take it to UFA.

You're assuming he has a place-based preference. I don't think he does. I think he has a money-based preference.

[Hoss]

O'Reilly did this once. He held out and got an offer sheet for more money once. And suddenly he's a mastermind who is worse than all other players when it comes to demanding more money? It just grows and grows...

[TrueBlueGED]

They'd be wrong in this case. RoR already played in the KHL illegally and signed an offer sheet with Calgary to force the Avs hand to pay him more. He has no reason not to play it all the way out to UFA unless he's somewhere he wants to be that ALSO wants to give him the money he wants

 

When you're in his seat you can have both.

Illegally? Nothing he did was illegal.

 

And of course he can have it both ways...but that doesn't mean you're getting him for a 2nd round pick and the Avs have no leverage.

[LGR4GM]

O'Reilly did this once. He held out and got an offer sheet for more money once. And suddenly he's a mastermind who is worse than all other players when it comes to demanding more money? It just grows and grows...

I am not sure anyone is faulting O'Reilly for holding out and getting paid.  It seems the general concern would be he wants more $ than the Sabres are willing to spend on him, so he walks in a year for nothing. 

[freester]

ROR controls everything.  There are very few teams that will ante up for 7 years 49 million dollar extension in a location he prefers.  This will greatly limit the return Colorado can get.  I think he can be traded for after the draft with an agreed upon extension for a reasonable deal.

[TrueBlueGED]

Illegal is the wrong word. In violation of established agreeements. You're correct that you won't get him for a #2 pick, if he doesn't want to sign with Buffalo you don't make the deal at all. But let's not pretend this is an unpolluted situation where the Avs dictate terms and simply sell him off to the highest bidder. They don't.

He had no contract, he didn't violate any agreement, or rule, or anything else. He was a free agent.

[nfreeman]

Illegal is the wrong word. In violation of established agreeements. You're correct that you won't get him for a #2 pick, if he doesn't want to sign with Buffalo you don't make the deal at all. But let's not pretend this is an unpolluted situation where the Avs dictate terms and simply sell him off to the highest bidder.  They don't. 

 

Who is pretending this?

 

I think a number of people (including me) think that notwithstanding ROR's leverage, there will still be enough teams bidding for him such that the price to get him will be high?  How high, exactly?  We'll see.  My guess is that he will cost more than Jordan Staal cost but a bit less than Kane cost.

[nfreeman]

So would Ennis, a non NHL prospect and our middle #1 be more or less than Staal?  That's the offer I came in with. IMO it's close to Staal and depending on the prospect involved could be slightly better.

 

If the prospect is Griggy or Pysyk, I think it's substantially better.  Dumoulin (the prospect received in the Staal deal) was a low 2nd-rounder, traded 3 years after being drafted (and now in danger of being a washout).  I also think Ennis is a substantially better NHL player than Brandon Sutter.  Pittsburgh received a higher #1 pick, but this year's draft is, they say, a better draft, so probably not that big of a difference there.

[dudacek]

 

The Staal trade isn't really a good comparable IMHO because Carolina was the only trading partner -- he told the Rangers he wanted to play with Eric, and he had leverage because he was going to be a UFA, so they pretty much had to get what they could get from Carolina.

 

O'Reilly has the exact same leverage as Staal did. If he decides he wants to play in TO, he tells the Avs he will not negotiate with anyone but the Leafs. Toronto becomes the only team willing to pay a premium and that premium only has to be a tick more than what the highest non-premium bidder offers. The Avs pretty much have to take it.

 

You're assuming he has a place-based preference. I don't think he does. I think he has a money-based preference.

 

I think it would be foolish to think that O'Reilly's agent isn't already looking hard at good fits for him.

Who can pay prime dollar? Who can promise an ideal spot in the line-up? Where does he want to live?

I bet there is a short list in place already and the agent will force Colorado's hand at the draft.

 

I'm sure Murray has already made Roy well aware of his interest.

And if he is as savvy as I think he is, he is already doing his best to show how Buffalo could tick all the boxes.

[Rasmus_]

I guess the reason that I want O'Reilly personally is his defensive upside with the ability to put up 60-70 point potentially.  With the right talent he has shown that he can be a 25 goal talent.  I'm so tired of seeing this team get shredded.  

[LGR4GM]

I guess the reason that I want O'Reilly personally is his defensive upside with the ability to put up 60-70 point potentially.  With the right talent he has shown that he can be a 25 goal talent.  I'm so tired of seeing this team get shredded.  

I'll be honest, I don't see him as a 60-70pt forward or a 25goal talent.  His average is most likely 15-20g and 25a-30a during good years.

[nfreeman]

O'Reilly has the exact same leverage as Staal did. If he decides he wants to play in TO, he tells the Avs he will not negotiate with anyone but the Leafs. Toronto becomes the only team willing to pay a premium and that premium only has to be a tick more than what the highest non-premium bidder offers. The Avs pretty much have to take it.

 

 

I think it would be foolish to think that O'Reilly's agent isn't already looking hard at good fits for him.

Who can pay prime dollar? Who can promise an ideal spot in the line-up? Where does he want to live?

I bet there is a short list in place already and the agent will force Colorado's hand at the draft.

 

I'm sure Murray has already made Roy well aware of his interest.

And if he is as savvy as I think he is, he is already doing his best to show how Buffalo could tick all the boxes.

 

Well, in theory you are right but in reality I think ROR probably isn't inclined to zero in on one team in the same way that Staal was -- and that Colorado knows this.

 

I agree that GMTM is probably working the situation behind the scenes already.

 

Let's just indulge ourselves for a moment:

 

Kane-Reinhart-Ennis

Moulson-Eichel-ROR

Foligno-Zemgus-Gionta

Deslauriers-Larsson-Flynn/Kaleta

 

Bogo-Gorges

Risto-good new vet defenseman

Nikita-Weber

 

 

Hodgson, Griggy, Pysyk and a #1 traded for ROR and a #2, with the Sabres keeping half of Hodgson's salary.

 

Holy mackerel would I be psyched for opening night

[LGR4GM]

Who is never in the box, shuts down opposing top lines, gives solid PP minutes, and plays the PK like a boss. 

Okay, what is it worth?

[LGR4GM]

Since I have no payroll concerns for the forseeable future and that I have no players like that currently, have none in the pipeline, and haven't had one in almost a decade? He can write his own check.

No, what is he worth to acquire.  What are you willing to give up to get him in a trade.  

 

I will say I disagree with the bolded. 

[Huckleberry]

O'Reilly will be a UFA at the end of next season and is highly unlikely to re-sign in Denver.

And how can you be ambivalent about Zemgus?

 

A trade definitely will happen whether permission to negotiate happens or not because the Avs cannot let O'Reilly walk for free.

The question is at what point can they maximize their assets. Roy and Sakic are in a tough spot.

 

 

Only problem is you can't start talking extension until july 1st.    This trade for this reason alone will only happen in the offseason i think.

But timmeh surprised me with Myers as well.

[BuffaloBorn]

..You really want to trade Girgensons for O'REILLY?!? It's his SOPHOMORE YEAR Girgs is our future, our future captain, forget the stats,,Girgensons epitomizes the future core of the team. Some players should be untouchable because we don't know their ceilings! Ristos a potential all star, Zadorov's a potential all-star, Rienhart's a potential super-star and the number one center we've needed since Briere/Drury.  Never undervalue young players. The Sabres don't need to try to trade their whole future for a declining rental.  just MO

[LGR4GM]

..You really want to trade Girgensons for O'REILLY?!? It's his SOPHOMORE YEAR Girgs is our future, our future captain, forget the stats,,Girgensons epitomizes the future core of the team. Some players should be untouchable because we don't know their ceilings! Ristos a potential all star, Zadorov's a potential all-star, Rienhart's a potential super-star and the number one center we've needed since Briere/Drury.  Never undervalue young players. The Sabres don't need to try to trade their whole future for a declining rental.  just MO

please quote ppl so we know who you are talking about.

[Sherman]

I don't understand why we would include Ennis. He is a good player, brings it every shift and locked up at a good price. I think people want O'Reilly because he will bring us that with more defense and potentially a much shorter term.

If we land McEichel Grigorenko is suddenly expendable. Grigorenko and a 1st for O'Reilly and a future pick if he doesn't resign is fair.

[Hoss]

I don't understand why we would include Ennis. He is a good player, brings it every shift and locked up at a good price. I think people want O'Reilly because he will bring us that with more defense and potentially a much shorter term.

If we land McEichel Grigorenko is suddenly expendable. Grigorenko and a 1st for O'Reilly and a future pick if he doesn't resign is fair.

That's not even close. Seriously people. Come on. You're not getting a guy who is just entering his prime and is one of the best defensive forwards in the league while contributing well on offense for a "meh" prospect who may never make the league on a consistent basis and a late first rounder...