Trade speculation 2014-15

[sicknfla]

I spent some time looking at the Detroit pipeline. No charts as of yet because it needs more work, but I can talk about what I believe.

 

From my model's point of view, the Red Wings have terrible early round picks, yet wonderful late round picks. This implies to me that the person watching Youtube of Dylan Larkin highlights selecting the first round pick is a different person than whomever is finding Axel Holmstrom in round 7. I haven't been through every pick, but Holmstrom (featured on the 2014 rakish draft board), Mattias Janmark, Julius Vahatola, all great late round picks. The model doesn't like Larkin (for where he was picked), Turgeon (the son), Bertuzzi (the nephew)

 

I think the easiest way to do this is to do a Sabres/Red Wings pipeline mashup, not counting Nyqvist, because he's out of the pipeline.

1 Reinhart

2 Risto

3 Mantha

4 McCabe

5 Baptiste

6 Sproul

7 Fasching

8 Grigo

9 Compher

10 Holmstrom

 

So who do you want if you're trading with Detroit? I like Sproul, Holmstrom, Janmark, Vahatola, Athanasious, but enough to give up Myers, no thank you.

 

How is Grigo below McCabe, Baptiste, and Fasching? Sorry Larkin is a better prospect than many of the guys you have listed.

[Hoss]

 

 

How is Grigo below McCabe, Baptiste, and Fasching? Sorry Larkin is a better prospect than many of the guys you have listed.

 

He does things a little differently.

[sicknfla]

 

 

He does things a little differently.

 

Lol. He must. Curious to see the method to the madness.

[beerme1]

 

 

How is Grigo below McCabe, Baptiste, and Fasching? Sorry Larkin is a better prospect than many of the guys you have listed.

 

Having seen Fasching only once, I have to say his drive, natural skating ability, and nose for the puck make me think he is ready for prime time much quicker than Grigs. And I am certainly not knocking Grigs.

Edited October 23, 2014 by beerme1

[Eleven]

He does things a little differently.

 

Have you ever seen him eat a steak? He uses a spoon. 'Cause ###### it, he likes his spoon.

[Brawndo]

Elliott Friedman was on Hockey Hotline talking about trades.

 

Mentioned that GMTM will wait until he gets the deal that he wants. Pointed to holding onto Miller/Ott until he got the deal he wanted.

 

In terms of Stewart to Boston, Boston does not have the assets or is not willing to move the assets that Murray would want in return.

 

Wants young player and prospect in return.

 

Andrew Peters asked about Columbus being a possible trade partner. Friedman mentioned CBJ has the assets needed, but they have not decided whether to make a move yet.

 

Trade stuff starts at 21:21

 

http://media.wgr550....otline-hr-2.htm

Edited October 23, 2014 by BRAWNDO

[nucci]

TM definitely has time to wait with Myers(or not trade him at all).

 

On the other hand, if this season continues to go south QUICKLY, if I was him I would not be afraid to pull the quick trigger on Stafford or Stewart if a reasonable offer is made. Keep in mind, if they go down with a serious injury, their trade value falls to zero ASAP, and the Sabres see them walk away with no return next July 1st.

I would have traded Stafford at any time in the last 4 years

[LGR4GM]

How is Grigo below McCabe, Baptiste, and Fasching? Sorry Larkin is a better prospect than many of the guys you have listed.

Rakish is using his own metric for ranking players. Grigorenko's sporadic playing in 3 separate leagues last year no doubt skews him down the list. I would be interested to hear why Larkin was not in that top 10.

 

Rakish, could you provide some context for your list?

[Hoss]

Expanding on Brawndo's Stewart-to-Boston stuff from Friedman, he had this to say today:

 

Boston and Buffalo did talk quite seriously about Chris Stewart, but it doesn’t appear at this time to be a match. According to other teams, the Sabres want two young players (or a young player and a draft pick) for the winger and couldn’t reach an agreement with the Bruins. Buffalo won’t make the move early unless it gets what it wants.

 

Friedman on Myers talks:

 

Those same teams believe Buffalo’s asking price for Tyler Myers is so high because of a worry he’ll go to a better team and make them look silly for trading him.

 

 

(The same worry some around here have. Not sure how I feel about it. Chara never becomes Chara if he stays on the Island.)

[rakish]

The model can be described in one sentence, do you score enough based upon your size. Larkin didn't last year. Score needs to be adjusted for your age, for who you play with, for 2 or 3 other variables to get a fair valuation. Grigo didn't have the best of years last year, he was OK, but no better than the year before. Baptiste and Fasching were very good last year.

[Hoss]

The model can be described in one sentence, do you score enough based upon your size. Larkin didn't last year. Score needs to be adjusted for your age, for who you play with, for 2 or 3 other variables to get a fair valuation. Grigo didn't have the best of years last year, he was OK, but no better than the year before. Baptiste and Fasching were very good last year.

 

Should you score more or less the bigger you are? It also wouldn't account for playing style which pretty much destroys the model.

[rakish]

Jordon Schroeder scored very well at 17, but he's too small, you can be small, but you got to score more. Thus when you are looking at 17 year olds, Schroeder has to be compared to players his size. A player like Deslauriers (he's very heavy) can have a NHL career without being a big scorer.

 

Playing style is a valid argument. I don't think it's true though. For me, the question is how accurately can the model predict, forwards are pretty easy, defensemen are much harder.

 

We (Tank and I) disagree on the how good watching works. My best argument is looking at the results of the Combined Scouting Service. (2003 I use a Sports Illustrated prediction because I haven't found the CSS). If you take the highest rated North American player at the Sabres draft position 2003-2011, you get:

 

good player: Dustin Brown, Myers

An OK player with Pysyk, Chipchura and Emmerton

Nothing: Eminger, Schroeder, Vagner, Wharton, McArdle, Collins, Nigel Williams, Shutron, Cross, Bashirkov, Robak, Stefanovich

 

Yet each season everyone talks about the importance of CSS list.

[3putt]

I think there is something to the size thing. I like young players with big craniums. If they need to grow into them fine. The large forehead cromagnum vestige cranium seems to produce the best players. Can we do a regression against player stats and their Cranium size at draft time? The outlier in this is Gretzky who had a small cranium versus Messier's massive noggin.

[rakish]

I think there is something to the size thing. I like young players with big craniums. If they need to grow into them fine. The large forehead cromagnum vestige cranium seems to produce the best players. Can we do a regression against player stats and their Cranium size at draft time? The outlier in this is Gretzky who had a small cranium versus Messier's massive noggin.

If I had the data, I'd explore the issue, sure. I'd love the combine tests, I've never seen those results, don't think I will

Edited October 23, 2014 by rakish

[LGR4GM]

I am with Rakish. There is a definite bell curve effect related to scoring/player size/nhl success. Ennis has to have more offense at 5'9" than Stafford does at 6'1"

 

It is one of the reasons I like Eichel so much. He scores a ton of goals and is 6'2" 195lbs.

 

Age of the player is also important in draft rankings.

[sicknfla]

I am with Rakish. There is a definite bell curve effect related to scoring/player size/nhl success. Ennis has to have more offense at 5'9" than Stafford does at 6'1"

 

It is one of the reasons I like Eichel so much. He scores a ton of goals and is 6'2" 195lbs.

 

Age of the player is also important in draft rankings.

 

Oh god let's not start the age thing again. I do agree with you though.

[Hoss]

I still believe the exact opposite of what Liger thinks about age. Somebody had a great point about those being the older ones in their age group are generally slightly more developed early on and thus are favored when it comes to sports. This leads to them getting favored more and gaining better experiences leading to them being better players.

[Derrico]

Well if you're giving out credit for that point, I'll save you the time in looking up who it was :P

[Hoss]

Well if you're giving out credit for that point, I'll save you the time in looking up who it was :P

 

Atta boy

[Eleven]

I still believe the exact opposite of what Liger thinks about age. Somebody had a great point about those being the older ones in their age group are generally slightly more developed early on and thus are favored when it comes to sports. This leads to them getting favored more and gaining better experiences leading to them being better players.

I still believe the exact opposite of what Liger thinks about age. Somebody had a great point about those being the older ones in their age group are generally slightly more developed early on and thus are favored when it comes to sports. This leads to them getting favored more and gaining better experiences leading to them being better players.

 

I believe there was a section in Freakonomics on this.

 

EDIT: SuperFreakonomics, the sequel. Here's a wiki article: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relative_age_effect

Edited October 23, 2014 by Eleven

[Derrico]

Yep, that's why I wanted my boy to be born in January. Didn't happen but that's what I wanted.

[Huckleberry]

Ok for no other reason than conversation IF we have the 2nd pick is the difference between Eichle and Hannifan too big that if the team with the 3rd pick offered us a great package that included the 3rd pick do you consider it?

 

Now before you butcher me just consider all the variables. One he is in college and may have no desire to leave until we are relevant. Two by having Hannifan you more than adequately replace Myers who you move for NHL ready players. Three by trading the 2nd pick you pick up more NHL ready players. Four we already have Grigo, Girgs, and Samson in the center pipeline.

 

I know it sounds crazy but I do not feel Eichle is McDavid. McDavid I do not even contemplate moving. Just food for thought.

 

I will add another twist. If you pick Eichle do you move one of the other guys?

 

From what I've seen Mcdavid and eichel are very close, but the one thing i like the most when we have to choose between the two is, Eichel has a wicked shot,

we got enough set up guys, but i'd like a future with.

 

Samson - eichel : set up guy - finisher

Grigs - hodgson: set up guy - finisher

 

and you can put Armia, Baptiste, Bailey, Zemgus, compher, Ennis on either of those lines.

 

Ennish is the Gionta we already had :P

 

Have you ever seen him eat a steak? He uses a spoon. 'Cause ###### it, he likes his spoon.

 

I need to have a beer with you once

[Brawndo]

With all these defenseman getting hurt does this increase the likelihood of Myers being moved. Is some GM going to become desperate meet Murray's demands?

 

According to Friedman, The Flyers are on the prowl for defenseman and if Myers is moved Philadelphia is one team maybe trying to get him.

 

Given the fact that Myers would still be on the Flyers when the Sabres are trying to become more competitive, it would have to be a hell of a package for Murray to trade him there

Edited October 24, 2014 by BRAWNDO

[Hoss]

No Myers to Philly or Boston. They can have Meszaros back for free. ###### them if they want Myers.

[Claude_Verret]

Or KC Royals Hall of Famer, Rusty Kuntz

 

 

Richard & Sal got in a pretty good Rusty Kuntz prank call a few weeks ago.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z29sp5_vnyo