2014 Sabres Training Camp

[LastPommerFan]

But compare her to a classical opera soprano.....the opera singer might have a higher range, be more in tune, and can sight read a new song note for note.

 

Have Ella do Ave Maria, and it might be an octave lower, but she has a shot to move you more than the opera singer. Have that opera singer try and scat 6 choruses of Cherokee, and she probably cries off the stage.....

 

Which is exactly why we should NOT sign Lebron James to play Left Wing.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

Which is exactly why we should NOT sign Lebron James to play Left Wing.

 

But we should sign a 23 year old computer science virgin to determine the $70 million roster of a team?

[Campy]

I think the stats are only as good as the person interpreting them - and the same is true for the eye test.

 

But it looks like this is being discussed as a zero-sum game for some reason. I don't view it as an either-or situation and think components of both would be ideal.

[LastPommerFan]

But we should sign a 23 year old computer science virgin to determine the $70 million roster of a team?

 

I don't care if he's slept with half of women in Buffalo, if he's gonna provide any additional insight into improving the team, I want the voice in the organization. I want a hockey man like Murray making all the final calls, and Nolan mustering the troops on game day, but I want those guys to have all the available information when they do those things.

[drnkirishone]

to dismiss advanced stats is kinda like buying a car without checking into things like recalls, reviews, value.

 

to dismiss doing the eyeball test is like buying a car without sitting in it and test driving it.

 

whats my point? advanced stats lets you get a head start in the direction to go, it helps forecast outcomes. But with out a experienced mind sitting down and going for a test drive you won't have a complete answer.

 

So for Nolan to dismiss advanced stats is distrubing to me and does nothing to quell my fears of him being a dinosaur of a coach. Keep in mind his sabres team only had the success they had because they had the greatest goalie ever (I am accepting of no arguing the greatest goalie part).

Edited September 24, 2014 by drnkirishone

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

I don't care if he's slept with half of women in Buffalo, if he's gonna provide any additional insight into improving the team, I want the voice in the organization. I want a hockey man like Murray making all the final calls, and Nolan mustering the troops on game day, but I want those guys to have all the available information when they do those things.

 

That's fine. I agree.

 

I have 400 channels on my TV. 70% of my viewing consists of 2 channels. 90% of my viewing consists of 7. "Advanced" stats is QVC.

[rakish]

For me, hockey is mostly played between the ears. A team down by one goal will dominate a much better team the last few minutes, a killed penalty will change momentum, goals seem to come in bunches, maybe it's confirmation bias, I don't think so.

 

It's more-so for goaltending. My assessment of St. Louis last year is that Hitchcock got Miller out of his comfort zone, and that cost them a cup. Each year the Pittsburgh costs them a cup because their goaltender plays poorly. Nolan has demonstrated that he can get goaltenders to play big games, Kristers Gudlevskis had a very nice Olympics. Some people on this board think the goaltending will be much worse this season, I don't think so.

 

We've seen what getting your players into a bad mindset can do. Why was Tyler Myers getting worse each year? Why can Drew Stafford be either very good, or very bad. As I've posted charts before, when Stafford is playing well (scoring), he is shooting mostly from 10 feet. When he is playing poorly (not scoring) he is shooting from 34 feet. Why does this change? The idiot coach telling him to shoot more, because shots indicate possession, and possession indicates you ought to be winning. Now whether you want to believe in analytics is up to you, many of our finest media personnel believe in it, but you cannot have Drew Stafford believing the number of shots is important. What Nolan and Stafford need to talk about is heart and cod, and getting to the net.

 

Nolan gets players into the right mindset, that's his job, I think he's the best asset the Sabres have.

[LastPommerFan]

That's fine. I agree.

 

I have 400 channels on my TV. 70% of my viewing consists of 2 channels. 90% of my viewing consists of 7. "Advanced" stats is QVC.

 

I think of it more like the Weather Channel. I'm never gonna make popcorn or a date night out of it, but it's worth having around.

[That Aud Smell]

Now whether you want to believe in analytics is up to you, many of our finest media personnel believe in it

 

Not sure it's your point, but I will note that the era of media, bloggers, and fans championing advanced stats, and FO's pooh-poohing them, is OH!-fish-uh-lee over. The fact that Toronto (Toronto!) is all-in on using (not relying on) analytics made that official, in my eyes.

[Weave]

I think of it more like the Weather Channel. I'm never gonna make popcorn or a date night out of it, but it's worth having around.

 

Or the programming guide menu. You may know what you want to see, where to find it, and at what time. But if never look at the guide you don't know what you might be missing.

[LastPommerFan]

Or the programming guide menu. You may know what you want to see, where to find it, and at what time. But if never look at the guide you don't know what you might be missing.

 

Nice. You can have a perfectly lovely evening of television entertainment, meanwhile a Goon-Slapshot-Miracle marathon was on Spike and you totally missed out.

[LGR4GM]

Buffalo Sabres ‏@BuffaloSabres

Forwards on ice: Adam, Armia, Bailey, Carrier, Catenacci, Ellis, Flynn, Foligno, Jacobs, Larsson, McCormick, Mitchell, Varone. #SabresCamp

 

 

I don't know about anyone else but those forwards right there all sound like guys either without roster spots or guys fighting for a bottom 6 spot.

[dudacek]

None of them plays last night.

I'd bet most of those guys will play against Toronto.

[LabattBlue]

Buffalo Sabres ‏@BuffaloSabres

Forwards on ice: Adam, Armia, Bailey, Carrier, Catenacci, Ellis, Flynn, Foligno, Jacobs, Larsson, McCormick, Mitchell, Varone. #SabresCamp

 

 

I don't know about anyone else but those forwards right there all sound like guys either without roster spots or guys fighting for a bottom 6 spot.

Stating the obvious?

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

I think of it more like the Weather Channel. I'm never gonna make popcorn or a date night out of it, but it's worth having around.

 

You've obviously never lived in hurricane alley!

 

OK...here's one for you. A team of top scientists have figured out that your body is most efficient at healing itself and rebuilding muscle when at complete rest, and between 4-12 hours after vigorous exercise.

 

Should the Sabres move their practices, especially on 2 off days and during training camp, to all night practices in order to capitalize?

 

What are we talking about here? All I keep hearing is about the exact same stuff from every single person that claims "advanced" stats are the way to go. The possession, Corsi, Fenway Park, yadda yadda. I see no new ideas out there.

 

I did a study on offensive linemen last month. 87% of games started on the O-line by named starters under Marv Levy with the Bills and Bill Belichick with the Patriots were by white linemen. An NFL study 5 years ago had the league comprised of 49% white offensive linemen. Levy and Belichick represented the AFC in the Super Bowl 9/26 seasons for a strike rate of 34% as opposed to the expected 12%. Of the 13% of games started by non-white linemen for Levy and Belichick, 41% of those games were started by 3 men, Ruben Brown, Damien Woody, and Bruce Armstrong, who combined for 16 Pro Bowls.

 

I see a very valid avenue here. Just the fact that I took the time to research it because it was so obvious to me over the years and I respect those 2 as the best minds of the game since I have been alive.

[LastPommerFan]

You've obviously never lived in hurricane alley!

 

OK...here's one for you. A team of top scientists have figured out that your body is most efficient at healing itself and rebuilding muscle when at complete rest, and between 4-12 hours after vigorous exercise.

 

Should the Sabres move their practices, especially on 2 off days and during training camp, to all night practices in order to capitalize?

 

What are we talking about here? All I keep hearing is about the exact same stuff from every single person that claims "advanced" stats are the way to go. The possession, Corsi, Fenway Park, yadda yadda. I see no new ideas out there.

 

Your punting on third and long example. That is one element of what advanced stats can provide. Showing that the odds are heavily against making the first down and that the 15-20 yd field position shift is a way to leverage that probable disadvantage into an advantage.

 

Obviously that advantage loses strength over time as defenses adjust, but that's when you start looking for the next advantage. But...

 

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

Yeah....that's the thing. Who has the nads to punt on 3rd down, or go to the GM and say..."don't draft that 6'6" 335lb tackle from the SEC in the 2nd, get the 6'2" 300lb guy from Iowa in the 5th...."?

 

There are plenty of statistical plays...... If you take Chz to Red Robin on a Tuesday during day 1 of "the cycle".....good luck. But if you send flowers to her work on a Friday of day 14, then have dinner waiting with a nice bottle of Chardonay when she walks in the door, (ok maybe 3 bottles)...... I'm guessing you're going to Fenwick Close......

[LastPommerFan]

Yeah....that's the thing. Who has the nads to punt on 3rd down, or go to the GM and say..."don't draft that 6'6" 335lb tackle from the SEC in the 2nd, get the 6'2" 300lb guy from Iowa in the 5th...."?

 

There are plenty of statistical plays...... If you take Chz to Red Robin on a Tuesday during day 1 of "the cycle".....good luck. But if you send flowers to her work on a Friday of day 14, then have dinner waiting with a nice bottle of Chardonay when she walks in the door, (ok maybe 3 bottles)...... I'm guessing you're going to Fenwick Close......

 

Right, my position is that this is a tool, best to have it in the truck, but you still gotta make sure you have a great contractor who knows a good mason/carpenter/painter when he sees one. I just don't want Burke's General Contracting to start winning our jobs because they have a fancystat about roofing that we dismissed out of hand.

 

{Also, Ghost, can we just talk in metaphor and analogy from now on? this is fun}

[Weave]

Ugh.

[spndnchz]

Yeah....that's the thing. Who has the nads to punt on 3rd down, or go to the GM and say..."don't draft that 6'6" 335lb tackle from the SEC in the 2nd, get the 6'2" 300lb guy from Iowa in the 5th...."?

 

There are plenty of statistical plays...... If you take Chz to Red Robin on a Tuesday during day 1 of "the cycle".....good luck. But if you send flowers to her work on a Friday of day 14, then have dinner waiting with a nice bottle of Chardonay when she walks in the door, (ok maybe 3 bottles)...... I'm guessing you're going to Fenwick Close......

 

I'd go Corsi. You need to include blocked shots.

[inkman]

 

 

I'd go Corsi. You need to include blocked shots.

Does Corsi include missed shots, turnovers in the neutral zone and scoring on the breakaway?

[spndnchz]

Does Corsi include missed shots, turnovers in the neutral zone and scoring on the breakaway?

 

Also includes shots that missed the net.

 

Chuckle.

[LTS]

There's a lot in there, but quick notes:

A: I don't think anyone would argue that the stats are perfect or that they'll always describe everything that happens in hockey. Baseball has it easier there since there's a much smaller tree of things that can happen on each play.

B: I don't think anyone is saying to rely solely (or cod-ly) on data and not watch the players. Yes, the model can be failable, but so can observation.

C: Playing unconventionally can work (seeL Hasek, Dominic), but I'm not sure if that works as well for coaching. There's a lot of smart people out there analyzing tape and any "unconventional" coaching probably has a lot more pattern to it than you'd think, just not the pattern that the other coaches are used to seeing.

D: As for analytics during the game, you're just being silly. No one is really suggesting that.

 

I'm sure there was a coach somewhere that said, "eh, watching film is imperfect, you can't see the entire playing field and you don't get the feel of the team at the time. I'm not going to use it and just rely on what I saw during the game." That sounds completely ridiculous now, and Nolan's quote at face value is in the same league.

 

Yes, I am being somewhat ridiculous in that that last point. I also don't want to argue they have no place, but to argue that a coach is screwed because he ignores them is also troublesome.

 

Take a look at the dump and chase article. Fancystats are about more than individual player performance. They can give insight into how best to design a system to enter the zone. Still not useful to the coach on gameday, but certainly valuable during practice.

 

They can, but they extrapolate that data across all zone entries. So, as a coach you better know that Team X actually excels at standing up players at the blue line and that Team Y excels at the dump and chase. It's how you apply the knowledge that matters. Of course, if you watch game film on another team (or someone else does) and provides the visual analytics without the statistical breakdown you'll probably still know that Team Y sucks at standing up at the blue line. Do you really need analytics to show that the Sabres D have given up the blue line easily over the past few seasons? They've been called out on it repeatedly. :)

 

When to pull the goalie. Stats guys have know for several years now that pulling the goalie sooner will lead to a higher chance of tying the game (~4 minutes I think is the magic number before the probabilities slide the other way)...but Patrick Roy just did it this past offseason, and was praised for some combination of guts, moxie, and brains. It worked, and other teams started pulling the goalie sooner. But really, Roy was late to the party too, just less late than other coaches.

 

Tons of other stuff I want to respond to in the last page or two, but that'll take more time than this example.

 

It doesn't mean Roy even was aware of the stats right? He could have just said, hell no one will expect this. I'm not saying analytics are not important, I think they are. However, they have to be used properly and no one should ever give them more credit than they deserve. An intelligent person makes use of all available information, applies their own values to each and then makes a decision. The result is what matters.

 

Ultimately it can become game theory. You make a change in an algorithm to impact results and you have to change your mind set when someone else makes a change (or did they?)

 

Also includes shots that missed the net.

 

Chuckle.

 

Does it account for when the stick breaks when taking the shot?

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

Also includes shots that missed the net.

 

Chuckle.

 

To quote Ted Darling..."And there's a souvenier to a young girl from Elmwood!"

 

Ugh.

 

Don't worry...I only have a 48 hour pass......

[That Aud Smell]

This foreword (to the annual Hockey Prospectus tome?) was written by a guy named Timo Seppa. I'm inferring he's a big deal in the world of fancystats. It's linked at the Tweet below. Guy has some rather specific things to say about how a coach must be on board with a movement toward analytics.