Serious question now that the offseason dust has settled: would you rather go into the 3rd-last game of next season with ...

[I am Defecting]

Tank vs Chopper, the last 20 years

 

If a tank is defined as a team that has finished in the bottom three in the league at least once in the previous ten seasons, and a chopper is defined as a team that has not finished in the bottom three in the previous ten seasons, then in the last 20 seasons, tanks have won 9 Stanley Cups, choppers have won 11 Stanley Cups.

 

From 1990/1991 till 2010/2011, a team that was in the bottom three went on to win the Stanley Cup within 10 seasons on 15/63 occurrences... putting the tank conversion rate at %24. This is the same success rate as the teams that finish runner up for the Stanley Cup,who win the Stanley Cup within 10 years (5/21).

 

On an aside, only 14% of teams that lose the Conference Finals (6/42), go on to win the whole shebang within 10 years. Of course, teams that win the Conference Finals win the Stanley Cup 50% of the time. Of total teams that made the Conference Finals, from 1991-2011, only 38% won the Stanley Cup within 10 years.

 

In the same 1991-2011 period, the three worst-point-total teams that made the playoffs, went on to win a round that year on 18/63 occurrences... putting the round advance success rate at %29. In fact, from 1991-2001, 3/63 bottom-three playoff teams went on to the Stanley Cup finals that same year. However, a bottom three playoff team went on to win the Stanley Cup within 10 years on only 10/63 occurrences. That's only 16% of bottom three playoff teams that went on to win the Stanley Cup within 10 years.

 

As for your question about needing to win out, the three teams with the highest point totals to miss the playoffs, also have a 10/63 or 16% occurrence rate of winning the Stanley Cup within 10 years. With regards to eventually winning the Stanley Cup, it makes no difference if the Sabres barely make the playoffs, or barely miss the playoffs, though I prefer it when they barely make the playoffs, because they have a 29% chance of winning a round.

 

Analysis

 

The Sabres give themselves the best chance of winning a Stanley Cup if they intentionally win the Conference Finals. However, they cut their odds of winning the Cup within 10 years in half, if they intentionally lose those Stanley Cup Finals. So it's best to make the Cup Finals and not try to lose, second best to make the Conference Finals and try not to lose. It's third best to make the Stanley Cup finals and try to lose, and it's fourth best to tank. It's a bad idea to make the Conference Finals and try to lose, because you'd have a better chance of winning the Stanley Cup by barely making or missing the playoffs.

 

For those of you who are determined to pursue the fourth best available option, here is my extended analysis.

 

The Benchmark:

 

The Hurricanes entered the tank in 02-03, after appearing in the finals 01-02. 3 seasons campaign till ultimate victory. (not counting the the lockout)

 

Best case scenarios:

 

The Penguins entered the tank in 02-03, and emerged victorious in 08-09. 6 seasons played till ultimate victory. (not counting the lockout)

 

The Blackhawks entered the tank in 03-04 and emerged victorious in 09-10. 6 seasons played till ultimate victory. (" ")

 

The Kings entered the tank in 06-07 and emerged victorious in 11-12. 6 seasons played till ultimate victory.

 

Acceptable outcomes

 

The Lightning entered the tank in 92-93, and exited in 93-94, and entered it again in 94-95, and exited again for 95-96 and 96-97, then moved back into the tank for 4 full seasons, and finally emerged victorious 7 seasons later. It was a hard fought, back and forth 12 season campaign.

 

The Nordiques entered the tank in 88-89 and emerged victorious 8 seasons later as the Colorado Avalanche.

 

Conclusions:

 

Winning tank campaigns take an average of 7 seasons to complete, putting the Sabres estimated Stanley Cup parade at June 18th, 2020. The "Pittsburgh model" puts the parade in 2019. In the last 20 years, only 6 teams have used the tank to their ultimate advantage. 76% of the time a team in the bottom three will not win the Stanley Cup. Stay safe in there, fellas.

Edited August 13, 2014 by Yuri Olesha

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

I just turned my AC thermostat up 3 degrees in honor of Yuri.....

[I am Defecting]

I'm happy when you're happy, Ghost. Incoming!

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4SZk3ynPFlY

Edited August 13, 2014 by Yuri Olesha

[rakish]

Always love your analysis Yuri.

[Claude_Verret]

The Buffalo Sabres are 0 for 43 with all other non-tank methods of team building.

[LGR4GM]

The Buffalo Sabres are 0 for 43 with all other non-tank methods of team building.

Not to mention there hasn't been a team in the modern draft era to stockpile as many high draft picks with such potential talent as Buffalo.

[SwampD]

Not to mention there hasn't been a team in the modern draft era to stockpile as many high draft picks with such potential talent as Buffalo.

The Buffalo Sabres. #1 in potential since 1999