How low do they need to go?

[Taro T]

Looking back on the 29th place teams since the full lockout, it looks like 65 points is usually good enough for last. The only time it wouldn't have been was in '06 when 57 was the magic #.

 

Year 29th

2006 58

2007 67

2008 71

2009 66

2010 74

2011 68

2012 74

2013 66 (prorated)

2014 66

 

So the way I'm looking at it, 8 points (or less) every 10 games gets it done. I absolutely want the Isles hovering around the magic 64 point mark. (A loser point in the last 2 'spare' games keep them at 65.)

 

If the Sabres and Isles both stink it up but not nearly as bad as Buffalo did last year, they could be looking at 2 sweet picks.

 

They definitely want to stay in the 60's to stay near the top of the draft. Even getting to 72 points would have had a team drafting 7th twice. (Though there were 29 teams with at least that twice also.)

 

Tank on Charles. Tank on Garth. :worthy:

Edited July 8, 2014 by Taro T

[IKnowPhysics]

20-47-15, 55 points, should pretty much guarantee it. I wouldn't "try" for much higher.

 

If that looks gross, note that we just finished 21-51-10, 52 points.

Edited July 7, 2014 by IKnowPhysics

[Taro T]

20-47-15, 55 points, should pretty much guarantee it. I wouldn't "try" for much higher.

 

If that looks gross, note that we just finished 21-51-10, 52 points.

So you looking for that extra win & OTL against the Isles?

 

My 'goal' is for the Sabres at 64 and the Isles at ~21. I don't want any possiblity of a late season run into the 70's/80's for Garth's goobers.

[Taro T]

The more I think about it, the more I'm thinking somebody falls below Sabres & Isles but those 2 finish 28 & 29.

[LGR4GM]

27-46-9=63pts is my guess for Buffalo.

 

37-32-13=87pts is my guess for the Islanders

[dEnnis the Menace]

27-46-9=63pts is my guess for Buffalo.

 

37-32-13=87pts is my guess for the Islanders

 

about 10 points too high in my opinion.

[Brawndo]

The more I think about it, the more I'm thinking somebody falls below Sabres & Isles but those 2 finish 28 & 29.

 

Calgary perhaps?

[Iron Crotch]

Don't care. I just want to watch some hockey and be entertained. Too many folks looking too far ahead around here.

[LGR4GM]

about 10 points too high in my opinion.

They had 79 points last year with terrible goaltending and Tavares injured for the end of the season.

[dEnnis the Menace]

They had 79 points last year with terrible goaltending and Tavares injured for the end of the season.

 

I really don't see them improving that much. I think they're line is going to be 79±5 points. In all honesty. Like the Sabres, they got better, but did they really get that much better?

[LGR4GM]

I really don't see them improving that much. I think they're line is going to be 79±5 points. In all honesty. Like the Sabres, they got better, but did they really get that much better?

Tavares, Strome, Reinhart, Halak, Grabovski, Kulemin with the subtraction of Vanek/Moulson... yes they got better. I don't see them being worse unless injuries screw up their season.

[LastPommerFan]

Tavares, Strome, Reinhart, Halak, Grabovski, Kulemin with the subtraction of Vanek/Moulson... yes they got better. I don't see them being worse unless injuries screw up their season.

 

They had a better record after Tavares's injury. He certainly makes the team better, but his injury was not the reason they were terrible last year.

 

Nielson and Okposo had crazy career years that they will not replicate.

 

Their Blue line is worse.

 

Grabovski and Kulemin do not replace the goal totals provided by Vanek/Moulson.

 

This team is better in goal, worse everywhere else.

[dEnnis the Menace]

They had a better record after Tavares's injury. He certainly makes the team better, but his injury was not the reason they were terrible last year.

 

Nielson and Okposo had crazy career years that they will not replicate.

 

Their Blue line is worse.

 

Grabovski and Kulemin do not replace the goal totals provided by Vanek/Moulson.

 

This team is better in goal, worse everywhere else.

 

This is what I was trying to get at, but couldn't quite get out of my head onto the computer screen.

[carpandean]

Looking back on the 29th place teams since the full lockout, it looks like 65 points is usually good enough for last. The only time it wouldn't have been was in '06 when 57 was the magic #.

 

65 points was what I used for my Tank chart and it worked out quite well ...

 

[LGR4GM]

They had a better record after Tavares's injury. He certainly makes the team better, but his injury was not the reason they were terrible last year.

 

Nielson and Okposo had crazy career years that they will not replicate.

 

Their Blue line is worse.

 

Grabovski and Kulemin do not replace the goal totals provided by Vanek/Moulson.

 

This team is better in goal, worse everywhere else.

I disagree. Tavares coming back makes the team better. Grabovski has better possession stats than Vanek. I think their blue line is roughly the same. There isn't a really good reason why Okposo can't have a similar albeit not quite as good season. Nielsen will see a drop in goals but his assists should stay the same. Grabovski and Kulemin have the ability to put up 30goals between the two of them. They are better IMPO.

[LastPommerFan]

I disagree. Tavares coming back makes the team better. Grabovski has better possession stats than Vanek. I think their blue line is roughly the same. There isn't a really good reason why Okposo can't have a similar albeit not quite as good season. Nielsen will see a drop in goals but his assists should stay the same. Grabovski and Kulemin have the ability to put up 30goals between the two of them. They are better IMPO.

 

Halak is the key, regardless. If he plays like he did in STL, they might have a shot at 85-90. If he sees the terrible d-zone play in front of him and freaks out, they could be one injury away from DFL.

[IKnowPhysics]

65 points was what I used for my Tank chart and it worked out quite well ...

 

 

Heh, 2-16-2 to finish the season.

 

My tank is so hard right now.

[Taro T]

 

 

65 points was what I used for my Tank chart and it worked out quite well ...

 

I'm hoping that's the magic #. Not sure who would get below it, but due to the stakes, I went with this season finding somebody below the HS P/F line.

[LastPommerFan]

I disagree. Tavares coming back makes the team better. Grabovski has better possession stats than Vanek. I think their blue line is roughly the same. There isn't a really good reason why Okposo can't have a similar albeit not quite as good season. Nielsen will see a drop in goals but his assists should stay the same. Grabovski and Kulemin have the ability to put up 30goals between the two of them. They are better IMPO.

 

They swapped their #1 Minutes defenseman (Andrew MacDonald) for a Sabres/Panthers Throw away (TJ Brennan)

 

I'm thinking they can't possibly be the same, no matter how good Reinhart is.

[HopefulFuture]

The more I think about it, the more I'm thinking somebody falls below Sabres & Isles but those 2 finish 28 & 29.

 

I'm with you Taro, and that makes me sad :(

I don't believe the Sabres get out of the bottom 3 though, but there are a couple of teams that look to be competing with the Sabres for last place. Calgary looks to be one of those teams, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Florida down in mix again. The one team that does intrigue me is Winnipeg. How low can they go if they deal Kane for futures as opposed to NHL roster talent?

 

As for the Islanders pick, I'd say anywhere from 4th OA to 10 OA with myself leaning heavily towards the 10 OA end of that scale barring injuries. But I don't see them as a playoff team quite yet.

[Huckleberry]

I think Ottawa will be our biggest competition, wouldn't rule out toronto either for finishing bottom 10.

 

Jets and flames are in a tougher conference so yeah, biggest threats for us.

[Chester Springs Rich]

The more I think about it, the more I'm thinking somebody falls below Sabres & Isles but those 2 finish 28 & 29.

 

I certainly hope that this is not the case. Sure we signed Moulson and Gionta, but we had to spend the money (see salary cap floor) and they weren't going to get paid the same elsewhere because few other teams had the salary cap space. Sabres can exert some control over how they end up this season. One way is to periodically and simply sit Moulson and / or Gionta and term that either rest or minor injury. Another way is to control how and when we insert the young prospects into the line up. The Sabres will probably battle Carolina and Calgary for the worst record overall. I am not hedging any bet the the Islanders (outside of a historic and epic collapse) will finish with the worst record. Sabres need to Pick #1 or #2 overall next year, they should then be set with the prospects needed to shape a contending roster.

[Claude_Verret]

All of the acquisitions to help mentor the youngsters are fine. The key to the tank this year: goaltending. Unless Enroth or Neuvirth turns into the next Hasek, the tank is still in great shape.

[LGR4GM]

They swapped their #1 Minutes defenseman (Andrew MacDonald) for a Sabres/Panthers Throw away (TJ Brennan)

 

I'm thinking they can't possibly be the same, no matter how good Reinhart is.

There is a bunch of young defender talent sitting on the Island. I hope they suck and you are right but I currently doubt it.

 

Ryan Pulock, Scott Mayfield, and Ville Pokka are all younger defenders who along with Reinhart have a shot at making the team. Hard to say how good they will be.

Edited July 10, 2014 by LGR4GM

[dudacek]

 

Ryan Pulock, Scott Mayfield, and Ville Pokka are all younger defenders who along with Reinhart have a shot at making the team. Hard to say how good they will be.

 

Jake McCabe, Brayden McNabb and Mark Pysyk weren't going to make the Sabres defence good last year and Pulock, Mayfield and Pokka aren't going to make the Islanders defence good this year.

 

Has there ever been a team with three rookie defencemen that was any good?

 

On paper, I think the Islanders have the worst blue line in the league.

Edited July 10, 2014 by dudacek