The tank is 1/2 over...

[Derrico]

I chuckled.

[darksabre]

Are you sure you just aren't over valuing our prospects because you keep a close eye on them. Grigo was forced into the NHL at a young age but he looked invisible out there when he did play. I haven't seen him play much this year in Roch so maybe I can't comment on how he looks.

 

Nobody is saying you can't draft good players in the later first or even later rounds. The point is the percentage chance of hitting on a player drops dramatically as you move down the draft. Is this even debatable? Especially with how far scouting as come?

 

There's only one first round in the draft. If your GM and scouting department can't hit on players in the other six rounds it's not the players that are ruining your chances.

[Derrico]

I get that and sure you can hit later in the first. I'm not saying you can. But similar to articles like this http://www2.tsn.ca/c...llen/?ID=267960 the odds reduce after the first five picks. I'm just pissed I've had to live through a bad season, historically bad season and another bad season and we may only end up with one top 5 pick. (in of course which appears to be by far the weakest draft of the three).

Edited December 3, 2014 by Derrico

[LGR4GM]

Are you sure you just aren't over valuing our prospects because you keep a close eye on them. Grigo was forced into the NHL at a young age but he looked invisible out there when he did play. I haven't seen him play much this year in Roch so maybe I can't comment on how he looks.

 

Nobody is saying you can't draft good players in the later first or even later rounds. The point is the percentage chance of hitting on a player drops dramatically as you move down the draft. Is this even debatable? Especially with how far scouting as come?

Well you somewhat disprove your own opening comment. Mikhail was forced into the NHL to young and was invisible. In Rochester and in preseason, that was not the case at all. The kid is markedly improved and I think that improvement is actually why he remains in Rochester ironically. Tim Murray is desperately trying to make sure he has stability and the chance to actually grow properly. Darcy was content to follow the Edmonton model of just tossing guys in because.

 

The percentage does drop but we have so many first and 2nd round picks that unless you think Kevin Devine and Tim Murray are truly idiots, odds alone say that out of the 12 first and second round picks we have had in the last 3 years 6 of them should be NHL regulars and 3 of them should be top 2 line players, statistically speaking. Imagine if we are slightly above that and we add in Nick Baptiste (3rd round) and 3 first rounders from this year. That's 5 of your top 6 forwards and 3 of your top 6 defenders. Again just according to the stats alone.

 

We cannot and must not fear this teams improvement this year. I want Jack Eichel or Connor McDavid on this team as much as anyone. That said if we end up with Pavel Zacha and Evgeny Svechnikov I think we might just be a little bit better than good.

 

Also we forget the one thing that all, every single without exception, cup winner has had. 1 elite pairing and 1 extremely solid pairing on defense.

[Samson's Flow]

It's also kind of important to remember that because of the top two in this draft, players that would normally go #1 overall in other years (Hanifin, Strome, etc.) will be potentially available at picks 3-5. While it's not ideal, it is hooking up with the smokin' hot cheerleaders also hot best friend. It's not like it's 4am Chippewa...

[LGR4GM]

I get that and sure you can hit later in the first. I'm not saying you can. But similar to articles like this http://www2.tsn.ca/c...llen/?ID=267960 the odds reduce after the first five picks. I'm just pissed I've had to live through a bad season, historically bad season and another bad season and we may only end up with one top 5 pick. (in of course which appears to be by far the weakest draft of the three).

Actually if you think about it you want the best pick in the weakest draft because it gives you the best player in an otherwise wasteland of crap. Draisaitl very well could be a bust. Dal Colle and Bennett I don't think will be. Ekblad isn't. Reinhart I am not worried about. Outside of that there is a lot of ?

 

This draft the ? start later in the round and are less severe. Until you get past pick like 11 and then it's definitely a crap shoot to be honest. Might be pick 12 or so by the time the draft hits but there is definitely a talent drop off in that area.

[Derrico]

I agree with keeping him down there. I have no problem letting him build up some confidence there. I also agree about our D pairing. I feel very good about where that is heading. I keep dreaming of a Risto/Zad Myers/Georges McCabe/Pysyk lineup. I just hope we can score enough goals. I'm sure that D alone will win a bunch of games but watching several more seasons of 2-1 hockey games is a scary thought.

[LGR4GM]

It's also kind of important to remember that because of the top two in this draft, players that would normally go #1 overall in other years (Hanifin, Strome, etc.) will be potentially available at picks 3-5. While it's not ideal, it is hooking up with the smokin' hot cheerleaders also hot best friend. It's not like it's 4am Chippewa...

yup

[Derrico]

I also agree that if you wanted a player at all in last years draft then the top is where you needed to be. But I'm still not of the illusion that Reinhart/Ekblad will be near McKinnon/McEichle skill.

[Samson's Flow]

Actually if you think about it you want the best pick in the weakest draft because it gives you the best player in an otherwise wasteland of crap. Draisaitl very well could be a bust. Dal Colle and Bennett I don't think will be. Ekblad isn't. Reinhart I am not worried about. Outside of that there is a lot of ?

 

This draft the ? start later in the round and are less severe. Until you get past pick like 11 and then it's definitely a crap shoot to be honest. Might be pick 12 or so by the time the draft hits but there is definitely a talent drop off in that area.

Agreed Liger. Last year we were discussing the possibility of getting the NYI pick at #5 and grabbing Dal Colle. Does anyone here think that Dal Colle is a better prospect than guys like Hanifin and Strome? Or that little Pat Kane look-alike that is scoring like crazy. Those are the guys at pick #5 this year.

[WildCard]

Agreed Liger. Last year we were discussing the possibility of getting the NYI pick at #5 and grabbing Dal Colle. Does anyone here think that Dal Colle is a better prospect than guys like Hanifin and Strome? Or that little Pat Kane look-alike that is scoring like crazy. Those are the guys at pick #5 this year.

Incoming NS....

[LGR4GM]

I agree with keeping him down there. I have no problem letting him build up some confidence there. I also agree about our D pairing. I feel very good about where that is heading. I keep dreaming of a Risto/Zad Myers/Georges McCabe/Pysyk lineup. I just hope we can score enough goals. I'm sure that D alone will win a bunch of games but watching several more seasons of 2-1 hockey games is a scary thought.

The thing is we have not hit the event horizon or critical mass or whatever you want to call it for prospects entry into the NHL. At some point either in 2015 or in all likelihood 2016 and 2017 you will be adding those first round and second round guys to your NHL roster. We have already started to see what impact that has. Zemgus makes this team better. R+Z are a huge improvement to a defense core that has been craptastic for years. I mean we could be talking about adding Reinhart, Armia, Grigorenko, Baptiste, Bailey and others within the next couple years. That is just a ton of talent. If you rank players on 1-10 then a line could have a 30. Right now our lines at the best have 15? You add Reinhart and Baptiste to Girgensons and you go up to a 20 without any effort. Let that line play for 2 years and you might be at a 25. If you can have two lines at 25 or better and 2 more lines at 15-20... you will score because there is just so much talent. Not only talent but these teams are built to work hard. That is the thing that impresses me about Reinhart. As much as I like Bennett, I had to admit Reinhart was a hard working player going into the draft. He was eager to get better and make others better and he pressures himself to do that.

 

I also agree that if you wanted a player at all in last years draft then the top is where you needed to be. But I'm still not of the illusion that Reinhart/Ekblad will be near McKinnon/McEichle skill.

You are correct. Sam Reinhart will not be Jack Eichel. He could become Jonathan Toews or Marc Savard in time.

[Derrico]

Again, I agree with all of the above. I just keep thinking that we already have Bailey and Baptist and guys who may end up being good goal scorers. Imagine what your line rankings would be adding a McEichle to that because we wouldn't have to give anything up from the rest of the core to do it. It just takes a bit more losing.

[LGR4GM]

but if we are losing with young guys starting to join the lineup than something is wrong with our drafting. If Risto and Zads can have the sort of impact they have had imagine what happens when we add more players like them.

[darksabre]

Again, I agree with all of the above. I just keep thinking that we already have Bailey and Baptist and guys who may end up being good goal scorers. Imagine what your line rankings would be adding a McEichle to that because we wouldn't have to give anything up from the rest of the core to do it. It just takes a bit more losing.

 

I'd rather see this team learn how to win while so many of our players are still young. That's much more important than tanking for one guy. It's a team sport after all.

[Derrico]

Ya but of all the draft picks we've had the past three years only three players are on the current team. That's part of the reason Pysyk, McCabe, Grigo and Armia are down in Roch. Not to mention Bailey, Baptist and Reinhart in junior, Compher et al still in college. I don't think four more months of losing will ruin Risto, Zad or especially Grigs. Would you be surprised if aleast half of this lineup is turned over within the next couple of years as all the other young guys come?

Edited December 3, 2014 by Derrico

[darksabre]

Ya but of all the draft picks we've had the past three years only three players are on the current team. That's part of the reason Pysyk, McCabe, Grigo and Armia are down in Roch. Not to mention Bailey, Baptist and Reinhart in junior, Compher et al still in college. I don't think four more months of losing will ruin Risto, Zad or especially Grigs.

 

You don't get it though. You've entered a paradox. If your kids turn out to be good then you no longer get to have the tank. But you also no longer need the tank because your kids turned out to be good.

 

The only reason to need the tank is if the kids aren't alright. Otherwise it's a fools errand.

[Samson's Flow]

Ya but of all the draft picks we've had the past three years only three players are on the current team. That's part of the reason Pysyk, McCabe, Grigo and Armia are down in Roch. Not to mention Bailey, Baptist and Reinhart in junior, Compher et al still in college. I don't think four more months of losing will ruin Risto, Zad or especially Grigs. Would you be surprised if aleast half of this lineup is turned over within the next couple of years as all the other young guys come?

I agree with you on this point Derrico. Ideally the kids don't make enough impact this year to get us out of DFL. However, the reason i've been siding with Liger is it appears as if the prospects on the sabres now are making them improve to the point where we beat two top teams for three wins. If this is truly an indicator of improvement (and not a short term fluctuation that I think it actually is), then we are further along than originally thought in the rebuild. You can't make the team lose to fit the ideal narrative.

 

This isn't UFA's and veterans carrying the team to wins, it is the important building block prospects.

[Derrico]

I understand that and that's why this will be the last year we would be able to want to tank with the projection of another four young guys on the team next year. But if we're doing so well because guys like Strachen and a UFA goalie (who I hope we do sign) are going off then where does that leave me?

 

Some of it is the rookies. Some of it has been non core guys playing above average. I thought Strachan has played out of his mind, Enroth certainly has (who knows if we resign him) and didn't Flynn or someone like that score a timely goal a couple of games ago. Grigs, Risto and Zad have looked good but I don't think they are carrying the team.

[darksabre]

I understand that and that's why this will be the last year we would be able to want to tank with the projection of another four young guys on the team next year. But if we're doing so well because guys like Strachen and a UFA goalie (who I hope we do sign) are going off then where does that leave me?

 

Some of it is the rookies. Some of it has been non core guys playing above average. I thought Strachan has played out of his mind, Enroth certainly has (who knows if we resign him) and didn't Flynn or someone like that score a timely goal a couple of games ago. Grigs, Risto and Zad have looked good but I don't think they are carrying the team.

 

Girgensons, Risto and Zad ARE carrying the team. That's what is fun about all of this. Three players are making a huge impact on a team that was downright awful last year. How are you not enjoying this?

[Iron Crotch]

Well you somewhat disprove your own opening comment. Mikhail was forced into the NHL to young and was invisible. In Rochester and in preseason, that was not the case at all. The kid is markedly improved and I think that improvement is actually why he remains in Rochester ironically. Tim Murray is desperately trying to make sure he has stability and the chance to actually grow properly. Darcy was content to follow the Edmonton model of just tossing guys in because.

 

The percentage does drop but we have so many first and 2nd round picks that unless you think Kevin Devine and Tim Murray are truly idiots, odds alone say that out of the 12 first and second round picks we have had in the last 3 years 6 of them should be NHL regulars and 3 of them should be top 2 line players, statistically speaking. Imagine if we are slightly above that and we add in Nick Baptiste (3rd round) and 3 first rounders from this year. That's 5 of your top 6 forwards and 3 of your top 6 defenders. Again just according to the stats alone.

 

We cannot and must not fear this teams improvement this year. I want Jack Eichel or Connor McDavid on this team as much as anyone. That said if we end up with Pavel Zacha and Evgeny Svechnikov I think we might just be a little bit better than good.

 

Also we forget the one thing that all, every single without exception, cup winner has had. 1 elite pairing and 1 extremely solid pairing on defense.

 

The last point is what the guys at NHL Radio (Sirius XM) always harp on. Fans obsess over forwards and scoring and overlook the fact that the best teams tend to have the best defense and goaltending. Scoring alone can carry you through the regular season, but as the saying goes, defense wins championships (along with timely scoring, of course).

[Samson's Flow]

I understand that and that's why this will be the last year we would be able to want to tank with the projection of another four young guys on the team next year. But if we're doing so well because guys like Strachen and a UFA goalie (who I hope we do sign) are going off then where does that leave me?

I hear you, but it isn't Strachen that is causing the wins. It's Girgs, Risto, Zad and a coked up Enroth.

 

The first three are for real, but IMO Enroth is not the best goalie ever to play and will not sustain his elevated sv%. We still aren't scoring a ton. Outside of the MTL 4-3 game, our win streak has all been 2-1 wins with some in the SO. That's still 1 or 2 goals a game which isn't winning long term.

[Claude_Verret]

I understand that and that's why this will be the last year we would be able to want to tank with the projection of another four young guys on the team next year. But if we're doing so well because guys like Strachen and a UFA goalie (who I hope we do sign) are going off then where does that leave me?

 

Some of it is the rookies. Some of it has been non core guys playing above average. I thought Strachan has played out of his mind, Enroth certainly has (who knows if we resign him) and didn't Flynn or someone like that score a timely goal a couple of games ago. Grigs, Risto and Zad have looked good but I don't think they are carrying the team.

 

Yep. A six game streak in a rebuild/tank year tells us next to nothing about how our core will be in three years, especially since most of that core is still playing in the AHL, juniors or in other organizations currently.

[JJFIVEOH]

Woooooo this thread took off!

[Samson's Flow]

Tank is still alive and well. No worries here. Talk to me when we aren't in last place when the calendar hits 2015