#31 overall - Brendan Lemieux

[Eleven]

I didn't want to say it.

 

But it's possible Lemieux could be a giant shithead that can score 20 goals a season. His point equivalency is only at about 20 points (compared to 43 for Reinhart), so he'll have to develop quite a bit to make the big roster.

Well i can live with this pick, not entirely without skill, and seems we got our own little shithead.

who needs ratface marchand if you got an lemieux on your third line.

 

To bad about barbashev though.

 

I am confused.

[Huckleberry]

I am confused.

 

Yeah well shitheads alway are little to me because of marchand :P

[26CornerBlitz]

@BillHoppeNHL

Something short ... 'Crushed' Brendan Lemieux figured #Sabres had no interest, promises to make teams pay. http://www.buffaloho...ad-no-interest/

 

@BuffaloSabres

VIDEO: Claude Lemieux reacts to his son being drafted by the #Sabres - http://goo.gl/b9NctW

#Sabres2014Draft

 

Brendan Lemieux speaks with EJ Hradek <2:13>

Brendan Lemieux speaks with EJ Hradek after being drafted by the Buffalo Sabres with the 31st overall pick.

 

Brendan Lemieux - scrum (6/28/14) <6:11>

Brendan Lemieux met with reporters in Philadelphia after being drafted by Buffalo.

 

Brendan Lemieux interview (6/28/14) <3:10>

Sabres 2014 draft pick Brendan Lemieux spoke with Brian Duff in Philadelphia.

Edited June 28, 2014 by 26CornerBlitz

[Kristian]

Bad link? Top one.

[26CornerBlitz]

Bad link? Top one.

 

Fixed.

[Huckleberry]

Love him already , going to make every team pay for passing on him in first round :D

 

Wonder how much Dale hawerchuck was involved in us selecting this kid.

Edited June 28, 2014 by Heimdall

[Bob Malooga]

He's going to be our Lucic.

Except those 3 inches and 50 pounds. lol. (I was down on this pick, simply because of who was left...but you cannot deny pedigree. I like that.)

Have our other top picks hung out on day 2 to greet the rest of the draft class?

I was wondering the same thing...that's something else to see, makes me like the pick that much more. He's already acting like a leader, that's something that you cannot coach, and is very hard to find. He's going to be a good one. I am very happy that kid is part of this organization.

[Hoss]

Reinhart has stuck around. He met with Lemieux.

[TrueBlueGED]

Yes. I examined NHL point equivalency about two-ish years ago with our young guys and it was good within about ten percent or so. It's not the most precise of metrics, but there did seem to be a decent correlation, enough to characterize players a little.

 

Facts are so annoying.

[SDS]

GMTM said they made his interview very uncomfortable, but he came out with flying colors. Wasn't surprised that he thought it was tough and he figgered the Sabres had no interest. Asked about teammates, relationships etc...

[Taro T]

GMTM said they made his interview very uncomfortable, but he came out with flying colors. Wasn't surprised that he thought it was tough and he figgered the Sabres had no interest. Asked about teammates, relationships etc...

... what to do if you see Kris Draper Milan Lucic skating along the boards near the bench.

[Robviously]

Yes. I examined NHL point equivalency about two-ish years ago with our young guys and it was good within about ten percent or so. It's not the most precise of metrics, but there did seem to be a decent correlation, enough to characterize players a little.

If you're saying there's a correlation between guys who can put up points in junior and ones who can do it later in the NHL, that stands to reason.

 

If you're saying there's a factor with which you can multiply a player's junior level stats to see how many points they're good for in the NHL right now, I'm saying no thanks. First, it doesn't even matter what they're capable of right now since we're hoping they develop and play differently later. Second, I don't think you can project NHL stats by simply multiplying junior stats by a one size fits all factor.

[MDFan]

Love this pick. Size, attitude, toughness, and enough skill to be dangerous. Exactly the type of player they need if he develops. Let's hope he does.

[carpandean]

If you're saying there's a correlation between guys who can put up points in junior and ones who can do it later in the NHL, that stands to reason.

 

If you're saying there's a factor with which you can multiply a player's junior level stats to see how many points they're good for in the NHL right now, I'm saying no thanks.

 

Actually, that's what correlation literally means. Of course, it's not perfect correlation; there's still noise around the projections due to the numerous factors that can affect each player's trajectory. However, that doesn't mean that the projections are without value, especially when they account for differences in junior leagues, etc.

[Johnny DangerFace]

 

 

Actually, that's what correlation literally means. Of course, it's not perfect correlation; there's still noise around the projections due to the numerous factors that can affect each player's trajectory. However, that doesn't mean that the projections are without value, especially when they account for differences in junior leagues, etc.

 

Regression!!

[Doohicksie]

His blood?

 

No, his blood is too full of cheap shot.

 

LOL. HI Brenden, here is an old home movie with me and your dad!

 

http://youtu.be/-pFXPH1wwcA

 

In any event, he is one of ours now, hope he develops and helps the Sabres kick some ass.

 

My favorite Lemieux "fight"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7DlAjrhm9s

Edited June 29, 2014 by Neuvirths Glove

[ubkev]

 

 

No, his blood is too full of cheap shot.

 

 

Cheap shot and playoff greatness.

[Robviously]

Actually, that's what correlation literally means. Of course, it's not perfect correlation; there's still noise around the projections due to the numerous factors that can affect each player's trajectory. However, that doesn't mean that the projections are without value, especially when they account for differences in junior leagues, etc.

Oh, I know what a correlation is. I'm talking about how useful it is for making a projection for a single player. You can find a correlation in data but the true measure of your model is how accurate it is at predicting an outcome when you input data. For example, we know there's a correlation between having a college degree and making more money. But if all you know about a person is that they have a degree (not what degree or in what field), how confident are you that you can guess their income?

 

That's how I look at stat equivalency in hockey and other sports. Yes, it stands to reason that players with lots of points in the minors are your best bet for lots of points in the next higher league. But on an individual level, it doesn't work all that well as a projection. Luke Adam and Mark Mandarin can rack up points in the AHL but almost can't do anything in the NHL. Meanwhile, Cody Hodgson's points per game his first year in the AHL were lower than Adam's but he's an effective NHL forward. So the correlation doesn't help predict what individual players are going to do. That's my problem with it.

[Doohicksie]

Cheap shot and playoff greatness.

 

I'm trying to get over my deeply ingrained loathing of his father (I was living in Detroit in '97 and following the Red Wings pretty closely those days). Reading/watching some of the interviews, though, I admit that if it were anyone but Claude's son, I'd be pretty high on him. So getting the emotional baggage out of the way... I guess I'm pretty happy with this pick.

[bunomatic]

Man I'm pumped about this pick. If he ever comes close to father Claudes playoff legacy this is a homerun. Hard worker, hard edged, in your face. A Buffalo Sabre. What more could you ask for ?

[dudacek]

I like the pick more now.

Still question his upside, but as a bottom six player, he could pretty effective.

Could be a nice block to the character of the team

[thewookie1]

I liked this pick a lot, although I want Barbashev here, Lemieux was my 2nd pick.

 

I see him likely being a 3rd/4th line guy but if he's anything like his father; he'll be a great playoff player while still being a pest.

[LaLaLaFontaine]

Black Book

 

 

 

ISS

 

 

 

McKeen's

 

 

 

FC

 

 

 

THN

 

Ok this board has to love him.

[IKnowPhysics]

If you're saying there's a correlation between guys who can put up points in junior and ones who can do it later in the NHL, that stands to reason.

 

If you're saying there's a factor with which you can multiply a player's junior level stats to see how many points they're good for in the NHL right now, I'm saying no thanks. First, it doesn't even matter what they're capable of right now since we're hoping they develop and play differently later. Second, I don't think you can project NHL stats by simply multiplying junior stats by a one size fits all factor.

 

Hey, believe what you want. But if you're interested, here's the science: http://www.behindthenet.ca/projecting_to_nhl.php

 

I played around with it, and I was pleasantly surprised how well it worked, but it's not perfect.

 

Actually, that's what correlation literally means. Of course, it's not perfect correlation; there's still noise around the projections due to the numerous factors that can affect each player's trajectory. However, that doesn't mean that the projections are without value, especially when they account for differences in junior leagues, etc.

 

Yep. It's a fun number to look at sometimes, which is why I occasionally invoke it, especially with prospects and rookies. I think it helps people get a feel for how good the stats of a prospect are in another league when you they can compare nearly-apples to apples in terms of an 82 game NHL season stat.

[carpandean]

Oh, I know what a correlation is. I'm talking about how useful it is for making a projection for a single player. You can find a correlation in data but the true measure of your model is how accurate it is at predicting an outcome when you input data. For example, we know there's a correlation between having a college degree and making more money. But if all you know about a person is that they have a degree (not what degree or in what field), how confident are you that you can guess their income?

 

That's how I look at stat equivalency in hockey and other sports. Yes, it stands to reason that players with lots of points in the minors are your best bet for lots of points in the next higher league. But on an individual level, it doesn't work all that well as a projection. Luke Adam and Mark Mandarin can rack up points in the AHL but almost can't do anything in the NHL. Meanwhile, Cody Hodgson's points per game his first year in the AHL were lower than Adam's but he's an effective NHL forward. So the correlation doesn't help predict what individual players are going to do. That's my problem with it.

 

I figured that you did and was mostly poking fun since you used the exact definition.

 

I'd actually wonder which is a better predictor, junior numbers or AHL numbers. I'd actually guess that in both cases, the second (and maybe third) year's numbers would have the greatest correlation. First years would reflect how quickly players adjust, but not necessarily their potential, while later years would show experience at that level more than actual relative skill (think about over-age players in juniors and lifer AHLers.)

 

Really, though, if all you are putting into your model is points, then it probably won't tell you very much. However, if points were used along with (including interactions with) other factors, such as size, speed, etc., then I could see that being very useful.