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Official 2015 NHL Draft Thread

LGR4GM

By LGR4GM
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Thorner Hall of Famer

Thorner

Posted
Posted

Can't remember Wellwood being talked about as generational. Nope, didn't happen.

 

Oh of course not. And McDavid certainly looks to be. I was just pointing out that McDavid pulling off a sick move doesn't in itself equate to him being a generational player. Lots of guys can do that. Obviously though, if you look at his entire body of work he projects to be a generational player. Wellwood is far from it. 

 

My main point is that no matter HOW good McDavid is, and he is amazing, people still seem to be able to take things to a hyperbolic level (Not saying anyone here is doing that). For example, Crosby has done nothing but live up to expectations, and there are still a ton of people that will call him a bum because he hasn't won 3 cups already. McDavid will succeeed greatly in this league, and proclaiming him as the next Gretzky is setting him up to fail. 

IKnowPhysics First Liner

IKnowPhysics

Posted
Posted (edited)

edit: Pardon the derp; also see below.

 

So both the Blues and the Islanders get bounced in the first round, which, among playoff expectations, has maximized our draft assets.  So we got that going for us, which is nice.

 

Islanders will be the #18 pick if Detroit beats Tampa, #19 if Detroit loses to Tampa.  St Louis will be the #22 pick regardless of outcome.  The STL #22 pick will go to Winnipeg from the Kane trade.

 

So we're realistically looking at:

 

1st round - #2 [Eichel]

1st round - #18/19 (from NYI, from Moulson-Vanek trade)

2nd round - #31

2nd round - #48/49 (from NYI, from Moulson-Vanek trade)

3rd round - none (sent to WSH in Halak-Neuvirth trade)

4th round - #92

5th round - #122

6th round - #152

7th round - #182

 

 

This is a really versatile position to be in.  The Islanders' zany Vanek trade and their recent season-ending downfall have opened up some really interesting opportunities for us.  A lot of other team's 2nd and 3rd rounders have been swapped, which could make for a very fluid market of trading up/down.

  • We could trade up the #48/49 and the #31 into the #20-25 pick.
  • We could trade down the #18/19 into the #25-30 pick and an upper/mid 2nd rounder. (I don't think we'd do this.)
  • We could trade down the #31 pick into the #35-45 pick and a late 2nd or mid 3rd rounder.
  • We could theoretically try to make a run at McDavid with the #2, #18, and a prospect/player.  (I don't think we'd do this.  I also don't think EDM's up for it- unless McDavid's agent has already unleashed holy terror.)
  • There's a whole zoo of trades possible for anything from picks to elite players by packaging any of the #18/19, #31, or #48/49 picks with any of our players.
  • We could simply select all of our players, end up with Eichel, a mid-1st, effectively a late 1st, a mid 2nd, and a handful of Rochester and goaltending prospects.  It'd still end up being nothing short of a great draft.
Edited by IKnowPhysics
Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

Posted
Posted (edited)

IKP - the Tampa/Detroit series won't impact the draft order. The draft order is only altered by who makes the conference and Stanley cup finals.

 

It'll be anywhere from 18-21. 18 if Detroit, Calgary and Minnesota all make at least the conference finals. 19 if just two of them do. 20 if one does. 21 if none do.

Edited by Hoss
Thorner Hall of Famer

Thorner

Posted
Posted (edited)

IKP - the Tampa/Detroit series won't impact the draft order. The draft order is only altered by who makes the conference and Stanley cup finals.

 

It'll be anywhere from 18-21. 18 if Detroit, Calgary and Minnesota all make at least the conference finals. 19 if just two of them do. 20 if one does. 21 if none do.

 

Yup. And while St. Louis came into the playoffs with the 27th pick, they will now necessarily rise at least one spot to 26th, as one of Minnesota or Chicago WILL make the conference finals, and they could end up with anything from the 26th-23rd pick overall, depending on Calgary, Washington, and either of Tampa/Detroit making the conference finals.

 

That's a great anaylsis though, IKP. There are a ton of possiblities. I think there will be quite a few deals on Draft Day, and a couple involving the Sabres.

 

Edit: The one thing I am concerned about is other GMs willingness to actually pull the trigger on deals. Didn't Murray attempt to trade all his seconds last year to try and move back into the first, and no one bit? That makes it seem like making a big move up the board is quite the uphill battle. The second first rounder is the the pick I think has a real chance of moving up the board, or out the door for an immediate return.

Edited by Thorny
IKnowPhysics First Liner

IKnowPhysics

Posted
Posted

IKP - the Tampa/Detroit series won't impact the draft order. The draft order is only altered by who makes the conference and Stanley cup finals.

 

It'll be anywhere from 18-21. 18 if Detroit, Calgary and Minnesota all make at least the conference finals. 19 if just two of them do. 20 if one does. 21 if none do.

 

After reading the the wiki about twelve times, I see the error now.

 

My wrong:

I thought the draft order was first determined by which playoff round a team exits, then by the order they finished in the regular season league standings.  EG, Pittsburgh lost in the first round, and is the lowest in the regular season league standings among losers in the first round, so they get the #15 pick.  Then Winnipeg (#16), Ottawa (#17), possibly Detroit (#18?), then the Islanders (#18/19).  Under this premise, the winner of Tampa/Detroit determines if Detroit picks higher than NYI.  If Tampa loses, they still pick lower than NYI because their season record was better.  The rest of the first round field would have been: Vancouver (#19/20), Nashville (#20/21), possibly Tampa (#21?), St Louis (#22)

 

But that's not right.  It's actually finishes by playoff round only for division winners and higher (and then by regular season standing), leaving the #15-26 pick to be determined among the division non-winners (division losers?) by solely regular season standing - not just the #15-22 picks.  In simpler terms, a team can win a series, but if they don't win the division, they still get sorted among all losers by regular season points.  Or in different terms again: all first and second round losers get lumped together for draft order.

 

Thanks for tipping me off that I'm full of .

 

It also means that when we control other teams' picks, we should generally be rooting for the underdogs in the first two series to improve draft order, unless we own said underdog pick.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pele5vptVgc

 

I still like our draft position and our versatility.

shrader Hall of Famer

shrader

Posted
Posted

Okay the NYI pick could be 18-22 and the STL pick could be 23-27.  

 

And the St. Louis one is essentially meaningless at this point.  It now unofficially belongs to Winnipeg.

3putt First Liner

3putt

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Posted

What is the range that we could move up to with the Isle's pick and our 2nd?  Both 2nds?  Just wondering where we might land in those events.  

LGR4GM Hall of Famer

LGR4GM

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  • Author
Posted (edited)

And the St. Louis one is essentially meaningless at this point.  It now unofficially belongs to Winnipeg.

Right if my understanding/math is right, the STL pick can not be lower than the NYI pick so we will be using the NYI pick from the Vanek trade.  We need 4 teams ranked below NYI to make it out of round 2.  So Washington, Minnesota, and Calgary are already in round 2 but if Detroit gets eliminated than the NYI pick then can only be 19-22.  Every team that survives round 2 bumps that NYI pick down 1. 

What is the range that we could move up to with the Isle's pick and our 2nd?  Both 2nds?  Just wondering where we might land in those events.  

Judging from past drafts?  Well let's say the NYI pick is 21, then we have 31 and 48.  I would guess that moves us up maybe 6-10 slots. Noting that is heavily dependent on teams draft boards and how the first half of that draft unfolds. 

Edited by LGR4GM
IKnowPhysics First Liner

IKnowPhysics

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Posted

What is the range that we could move up to with the Isle's pick and our 2nd?  Both 2nds?  Just wondering where we might land in those events.  

 

Well, a #18, a #31, and a #48 is nothing to sneeze at.  The #18 and #31 could be a #9-#13 pick.  Add the #48, and it could be a #7-11 pick.  Maybe we get back some change in the form of a 3rd or 4th if it's 11 or lower, etc. You really want a guy if you trade up three-picks-for-one though; there can be some really good finds in that #31-48 area.

3putt First Liner

3putt

Posted
Posted

Well, a #18, a #31, and a #48 is nothing to sneeze at.  The #18 and #31 could be a #9-#13 pick.  Add the #48, and it could be a #7-11 pick.  Maybe we get back some change in the form of a 3rd or 4th if it's 11 or lower, etc. You really want a guy if you trade up three-picks-for-one though; there can be some really good finds in that #31-48 area.

No doubt.  But we will be in the position of having a lot of picks ready for ELC's at roughly the same time.  Just wondering if it is worth a packaging a pick or two to grab someone also high on our board and use the remaining picks in later rounds to add depth.  We will have 3 extra 3's next year plus the Montreal 5.  Lot's of bodies unless we leverage picks for higher potential bodies.  Just a thought.

LGR4GM Hall of Famer

LGR4GM

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No doubt.  But we will be in the position of having a lot of picks ready for ELC's at roughly the same time.  Just wondering if it is worth a packaging a pick or two to grab someone also high on our board and use the remaining picks in later rounds to add depth.  We will have 3 extra 3's next year plus the Montreal 5.  Lot's of bodies unless we leverage picks for higher potential bodies.  Just a thought.

Most if not all of those 3rds will be busts.  If we have 10 3rds I would expect only 2 to play 3 full NHL seasons at careers end.  

3putt First Liner

3putt

Posted
Posted

Most if not all of those 3rds will be busts.  If we have 10 3rds I would expect only 2 to play 3 full NHL seasons at careers end.  

I get that the lower you go the odds of grabbing an NHL contributor decrease.  That is what I am advocating.  Increase you odds of getting an NHL contributor via the draft.  Or you can trade the pick for an nhl player.  I think the upside of a pick, the ceiling, will usually be higher than that of the player in return but ymmv.

LGR4GM Hall of Famer

LGR4GM

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@GoErieHockey: Craig MacTavish wouldn't trade the #1 pick in the @NHL draft as @EdmontonOilers GM. New GM Peter Chiarelli says "never say never." #erie

He said "we'd be passing up a hell of a player if we traded that pick, but in this business you never say never"

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