Official 2015 NHL Draft Thread

K-9 · April 16, 2015

True. But those chances (all teams) are not as advertised by the league.

Then by all means, proceed with your lawsuit against the league. This is perhaps the most egregious example of false advertising in history.

GO SABRES!!!

qwksndmonster · April 16, 2015

pi, the Sabres have a 200/1001 chance of winning the draw, but they still have a 200/1000 chance of winning the lottery

Edited April 16, 2015 by qwksndmonster

K-9 · April 16, 2015

pi, the Sabres have a 200/1001 chance of winning the draw, but they still have a 200/1000 chance of winning the lottery

Game over.

GO SABRES!!!

pi2000 · April 16, 2015

pi, the Sabres have a 200/1001 chance of winning the draw, but they still have a 200/1000 chance of winning the lottery

You can't win the lottery without winning the draw... and those chances are 200/1001. Sure the difference is trivial, but it exists.

qwksndmonster · April 16, 2015

You can't win the lottery without winning the draw... and those chances are 200/1001. Sure the difference is trivial, but it exists.

GOD DAMMIT I'M BEING TROLLED.

200/1001 chance of winning draw

800/1001 chance of losing draw

1/1001 chance of redraw

The important part is that every single team has that 1/1001 chance of the redraw, which means that their odds of winning the lottery are correct, even if they aren't the exact odds of winning the draw.

Edited April 16, 2015 by qwksndmonster

shrader · April 16, 2015

This is ridiculous

Eleven · April 16, 2015

SO, you're on a game show. There are three doors, and behind one of them is a prize...

qwksndmonster · April 16, 2015

SO, you're on a game show. There are three doors, and behind one of them is a prize...

CHANGE YOUR ANSWER EVERY DAMN TIME!

pi2000 · April 16, 2015

GOD DAMMIT I'M BEING TROLLED.

200/1001 chance of winning draw

800/1001 chance of losing draw

1/1001 chance of redraw

The important part is that every single team has that 1/1001 chance of the redraw, which means that their odds of winning the lottery are correct, even if they aren't the exact odds of winning the draw.

Right, but in order to WIN one of your numbers needs to come up and there is 1 number that belongs to nobody. So the existence of that number decreases every team's odds ever so slightly. Consider there are infinite parallel universes.... in one of those universes, that 1001st number will come up over and over again for eternity, which means nobody ever gets McDavid. I hope that's not the universe we live in.... and if it is.. well, the league will be hearing from me :)

Edited April 16, 2015 by pi2000

Hoss · April 16, 2015

I still think the best way to televise the lottery is to have a board of teams lit up... Release the balls one by one and have the teams go dark if they have no possible combinations left. It might be tough and hard to understand for some, but it leaves the drama in.

qwksndmonster · April 16, 2015

Right, but in order to WIN one of your numbers needs to come up and there is 1 number that belongs to nobody. So the existence of that number decreases every team's odds ever so slightly. Consider there are infinite parallel universes.... in one of those universes, that 1001st number will come up over and over again for eternity, which means nobody every gets McDavid. I hope that's not the universe we live in.

pi, there are infinite universes. This is the only one in which I'm not currently punching your face (I swear to god, if you mention the universes in which we don't have hands or faces...).

Edited April 16, 2015 by qwksndmonster

MattPie · April 16, 2015

Three people are using a 6-sided die to select who wins something. They declare that all the even numbers are invalid, and each gets a one odd number (1, 3, 5). If an even number comes up, re-roll. Each person has a 33.33..% chance of winning, despite owning only 16.67..% of the numbers. You'd be right if the draw stopped after the first try, but since it redraws in the case of an invalid number, the percentages are all same as if there wasn't an invalid number.

pi2000 · April 16, 2015

I still think the best way to televise the lottery is to have a board of teams lit up... Release the balls one by one and have the teams go dark if they have no possible combinations left. It might be tough and hard to understand for some, but it leaves the drama in.

cuz we all need more drama, right?

shrader · April 16, 2015

I still think the best way to televise the lottery is to have a board of teams lit up... Release the balls one by one and have the teams go dark if they have no possible combinations left. It might be tough and hard to understand for some, but it leaves the drama in.

Screw that. I want each GM sitting there with the specific number of lottery tickets their team has earned. After the drawing, we have to sit and wait while they each skim over each ticket to see if they have won. I want endless camera shots of GMs/presidents crumbling up lottery tickets waiting for someone to find the winner. Of course, with my luck, the winner's ticket would be the very top on on their pile, ruining everything.

Sabres Fan in NS · April 16, 2015

One can only be trolled if they let themselves be trolled.

I thought we all had a gentle persons agreement to play nice after the season ended.

Anyway, I will save you all the back and forth ... the Buffalo Sabres will not win the draw, nor the lottery, nor whatever else you want to call it / them. As in, 100%.

MattPie · April 16, 2015

I still think the best way to televise the lottery is to have a board of teams lit up... Release the balls one by one and have the teams go dark if they have no possible combinations left. It might be tough and hard to understand for some, but it leaves the drama in.

I agree, that'd be fantastic. If they wanted to draw it into a 30-minute show, talk about the teams that get eliminated before drawing the next ball. "Oh, New Jersey is out: NJ is looking to improve RW this year with the departure of Jagr and ...."

pi2000 · April 16, 2015

Three people are using a 6-sided die to select who wins something. They declare that all the even numbers are invalid, and each gets a one odd number (1, 3, 5). If an even number comes up, re-roll. Each person has a 33.33..% chance of winning, despite owning only 16.67..% of the numbers. You'd be right if the draw stopped after the first try, but since it redraws in the case of an invalid number, the percentages are all same as if there wasn't an invalid number.

i guess the difference we're arguing is this... I'm arguing about the probability wrt one of the the 200 out of 1001 numbers showing up. Others are arguing about the chances of winning the lottery AGAINST other teams. The chance of winning against other teams is 20%, but the chance of winning vs THE MACHINE is 19.98%. So i'm arguing that you need to beat the machine, which all teams need to do, so all teams odds vs the machine are less 0.2%.

qwksndmonster · April 16, 2015

One can only be trolled if they let themselves be trolled.

I thought we all had a gentle persons agreement to play nice after the season ended.

Anyway, I will save you all the back and forth ... the Buffalo Sabres will not win the draw, nor the lottery, nor whatever else you want to call it / them. As in, 100%.

I'm aware that I'm letting it happen. Take your lousy negativity out of here, troll.

pi2000 · April 16, 2015

Screw that. I want each GM sitting there with the specific number of lottery tickets their team has earned. After the drawing, we have to sit and wait while they each skim over each ticket to see if they have won. I want endless camera shots of GMs/presidents crumbling up lottery tickets waiting for someone to find the winner. Of course, with my luck, the winner's ticket would be the very top on on their pile, ruining everything.

That would be must-see-tv. I can't believe the league doesn't realize the opportunity they have here.

Or how about a game of BINGO, Buffalo gets 200 bingo cards and so forth. They could auction off spots for the fans to play for their team, or pick season ticket holders based on tenure, etc..

qwksndmonster · April 16, 2015

i guess the difference we're arguing is this... I'm arguing about the probability wrt one of the the 200 out of 1001 numbers showing up. Others are arguing about the chances of winning the lottery AGAINST other teams. The chance of winning against other teams is 20%, but the chance of winning vs THE MACHINE is 19.98%. So i'm arguing that you need to beat the machine, which all teams need to do, so all teams odds vs the machine are less 0.2%.

Your rage about the lottery not being public makes so much more sense now. If there is a do-over, that doesn't all of the sudden mean THE MACHINE wins. Hahahahahahahahahahaha

But what if there's infinity do-overs? Bwahahhahahahaha

dudacek · April 16, 2015

It's going to be so sweet when the roulette wheel stops on 97.

It's a new era, Sabrefans.

pi2000 · April 16, 2015

Your rage about the lottery not being public makes so much more sense now. If there is a do-over, that doesn't all of the sudden mean THE MACHINE wins. Hahahahahahahahahahaha

But what if there's infinity do-overs? Bwahahhahahahaha

Statistically possible. I'm not trying to troll you, it's simply a mathematical possibility that nobody ever gets McDavid. In some parallel universe somewhere, that is what happens, let's hope it's not the one we live in.

Samson's Flow · April 16, 2015

i guess the difference we're arguing is this... I'm arguing about the probability wrt one of the the 200 out of 1001 numbers showing up. Others are arguing about the chances of winning the lottery AGAINST other teams. The chance of winning against other teams is 20%, but the chance of winning vs THE MACHINE is 19.98%. So i'm arguing that you need to beat the machine, which all teams need to do, so all teams odds vs the machine are less 0.2%.

So this is how to boost your post count. I knew I was doing something wrong... :nana:

dudacek · April 16, 2015

PA's been trying to beat the machine for years.

qwksndmonster · April 16, 2015

Statistically possible. I'm not trying to troll you, it's simply a mathematical possibility that nobody ever gets McDavid. In some parallel universe somewhere, that is what happens, let's hope it's not the one we live in.

Are you really getting hung up on the chance that a .02% result occurs over and over infinite times? Let's call that chance .00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 repeating

PA's been trying to beat the machine for years.

:D

Statistically possible. I'm not trying to troll you, it's simply a mathematical possibility that nobody ever gets McDavid. In some parallel universe somewhere, that is what happens, let's hope it's not the one we live in.

There's a lot more universes where McDavid dies after he gets drafted by the Sabres. That's what we should be freaking out about.

Edited April 16, 2015 by qwksndmonster

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