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Official 2015 NHL Draft Thread

LGR4GM

By LGR4GM
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Brawndo Hall of Famer

Brawndo

Posted
Posted

Brief documentary on McDavid. Seems unbelievably focused and mature for a kid his age.

 

Tin Foil Party, put your hats on and unite at around the 12-13 minute mark. (He's real close to the son of the family he lives with in Erie; the kid is a big Sabres fan. Shows a bunch of clips of McDavid and him playing knee hockey with Sabres gear)

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2dma4n_connor-mcdavid-transitions_sport

Actually the whole family is Sabre Fans. The father will not even talk to Connor about the possibly of him being drafted by the Sabres to not jinx it.

Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

Posted
Posted (edited)

McDavid with an early assist to extend his point streak to 26 games.

 

Edit: 27 games I mean

Edited by Tank
Iron Crotch All Star

Iron Crotch

Posted
Posted

Every team that misses the playoffs has a shot at McDavid.  For that reason alone I think I want the Bruins to make the playoffs.  It'd be disgusting if they lucked out and got McDavid.

carpandean First Liner

carpandean

Posted
Posted (edited)

Neither of the tankers are getting McDavid.

It will Toronto, or Philly or some other team we despise jumping up.

 

If you mean Buffalo and Arizona, then at best they will have a combined 33.5% chance at him, so smart bet would be that you are correct.  If you include Edmonton (they haven't done as much obvious tanking, plus "neither" wouldn't really fit for three teams, but ...), then it's closer to a coin flip (45/55).

Edited by carpandean
Randall Flagg Hall of Famer

Randall Flagg

Posted
Posted

Neither of the tankers are getting McDavid.

It will Toronto, or Philly or some other team we despise jumping up.

Wasn't it you that told us we heard it from you first that Buffalo gets McDavid from a 2nd-4th last place finish?

Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

Posted
Posted (edited)

If anybody wants a historical perspective on how the draft lottery normally goes:

 

2014: Second-place Panthers won

2013: Second-place Avalanche won

2012: Second-place Oilers won

2011: Eighth-place Devils won (moved from 8 to 4, per lottery rules at that time)

2010: First-place Oilers won

2009: First-place Islanders won

2008: First-place Lightning won

2007: Fifth-place Blackhawks won

2006: First-place Blues won

2005: Doesn't apply, different lottery

2004: Third-place Capitals won

2003: Fourth-place Panthers won

2002: Third-place Panthers won

2001: Third-place Thrashers won

2000: Fifth-place Islanders won

1999: Eighth-place Blackhawks won (from 8th to 4th, per lottery rules at the time)

1998: Third-place Sharks won (but Tampa Bay owned the pick via a previous trade)

1997: First-place Bruins won

1996: First-place Senators won

1995: Seventh-place Kings won (from 7th to 3rd, per lottery rules at the time)

 

 

Looking at those the numbers are (adds up to 99.8%):

1st: 31.6%

2nd: 15.7%

3rd: 21.1%

4th: 5.3%

5th: 10.5%

6th: 0%

7th: 5.3%

8th: 10.3%

9th-14th: 0%

 

 

If your only reaction to the above is "blah blah it means nothing..." read below.

 

Now obviously the lottery has changed multiple times since some of these occured, so this can't be taken as gospel... But it gives you an idea of how often one wins and doesn't win. It's been a while, and when the first-place lottery team wins it seems to be in bunches. The second place team had never won until three years ago, but they have won each of those three seasons. Will that trend continue? Is number one "due" for a win?

 

The answer? No. It's a lottery. There are a bunch of balls bouncing around and the odds are different than they ever have been. We have no idea how it will go this year. Sit down and pray, if that's your deal.

Edited by Tank
Eleven Hall of Famer

Eleven

Posted
Posted

It's kind of neat to look back at history and all that, but I'd put the Sabres odds at exactly 20 percent no matter what happened in the past.

Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

Posted
Posted

It's kind of neat to look back at history and all that, but I'd put the Sabres odds at exactly 20 percent no matter what happened in the past.

Yeap. That's what my last point was about. No way of knowing.

French Collection First Liner

French Collection

Posted
Posted

Watched McDavid in North Bay today. Impressive speed, agility and quickness. Just better than anyone else. First period was his best, created a scoring chance every time he touched the puck. Finished with 2 helpers in a win. Strome was OK, not impressive but a good sized centre. He got a goal on a rebound, nice shot. Baptiste showed flashes but did not have any great shifts other than 1 PK.

 

McDavid would definitely get points at the NHL level. He just explodes when an opening appears.

 

Signing my son's Team Canada sweater was an added bonus.

rakish Third Liner

rakish

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Posted (edited)

I looked at who McKeen's would have taken had they been drafting as the Buffalo Sabres.  Often times I got this list from a blog that copied their top 30 list that year.  How you want to look at 2012 is up to you. Does McKeen's Sabres get Grigo at 14? Since they picked Terravainen at 12, or is Grigo gone because the real Sabres picked him at 12?  Either way, McKeen's does OK, they lose out on Myers, Ennis, Girgensons, Risto, and they gain Kulikov, Kuznetov, Nichushkin. 

 

In the past I did the same with CSS, taking the top rated NA player, CSS did worse than McKeen's.

 

2007 31 (TJ Brennan) Bill Sweatt
    59 (Schiestal) Mark Katic

2008 12 (Myers) Chet Pickard
    26 (Ennis) Jacob Markstrom
    44 (Adam) Zach Delpe

2009 13 (Kassian) Kulikov

2010 23 (Pysyk) Kuznetsov

2011 16 (Armia) Rocco Grimaldi

2012 12 (Grigorenko) Teravainen
    14 (Girgensons) Grigorenko (Cody Ceci)
    44 (McCabe) Colton Scissons

2013 8 (Risto) Nichushkin
    16 (Zadorov) Zadorov
    35 (Compher) Hagg
    38 (Hurley) Vannelli
    52 (Bailey)

2014 2 (Reinhart) Reinhart
    31 (Lemieux) Dougherty
    44 (Cornel) Cornel
    49 (Karabacek)

Edited by rakish
rakish Third Liner

rakish

Posted
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Yesterday's post on McKeens created such an overwhelming response, today I decided to look at The Hockey News, since it is sometimes quoted here as an authority.  Same rules as yesterday, I went back a year farther, really because I wanted to see how they did with Persson.  One list, I think it was 2008, I could only find a March ranking or June mock, I went with the March ranking.  Letting THN draft for the Sabres, you get the following team.  Gone from the Sabres are Myers, Ennis, Grigensons, Risto, Zadorov, Reinhart.  That group is replaced by Ceci, Nichushkin, Bennett and Barbashev.  They changed by-line authors a couple years ago, and the new writer, by my eye, isn't as bad as his predecessor.

 

2006 24 (Persson) Nigel Williams
    46 (Enroth) Ryan White
    57 (Weber) Mike Forney

2007 31 (TJ Brennan) Maxim Mayorov
    59 (Schiestal) Joakim Andersson

2008 12 (Myers) Colten Teubert
    26 (Ennis) Colby Robak
    44 (Adam) Mikhail Stefanovich

2009 13 (Kassian) Jordan Schroeder

2010 23 (Pysyk) Pysyk

2011 16 (Armia) Zack Phillips

2012 12 (Grigorenko)  Grigo
    14 (Girgensons) Cody Ceci
    44 (McCabe) Dalton Thrower

2013 8 (Risto) Valeri Nichushkin
    16 (Zadorov) Hunter Shinkaruk
    35 (Compher) Robert Hagg
    38 (Hurley) Steve Santini
    52 (Bailey) Eric Comrie

2014 2 (Reinhart) Bennett
    31 (Lemieux) Barbashev
    44 (Cornel) McKeown
    49 (Karabacek) Dougherty

dudacek Hall of Famer

dudacek

Posted
Posted (edited)

Yesterday's post on McKeens created such an overwhelming response, today I decided to look at The Hockey News, since it is sometimes quoted here as an authority.  Same rules as yesterday, I went back a year farther, really because I wanted to see how they did with Persson.  One list, I think it was 2008, I could only find a March ranking or June mock, I went with the March ranking.  Letting THN draft for the Sabres, you get the following team.  Gone from the Sabres are Myers, Ennis, Grigensons, Risto, Zadorov, Reinhart.  That group is replaced by Ceci, Nichushkin, Bennett and Barbashev.  They changed by-line authors a couple years ago, and the new writer, by my eye, isn't as bad as his predecessor.

 

Hockey News rankings are done by polling scouts and other hockey executives and they've been running it since the '80s. It's the same set-up as McKenzie's rankings on TSN — no surprise since McKenzie started it when he was with the Hockey News and continued it for years.

Edited by dudacek
rakish Third Liner

rakish

Posted
Posted

Hockey News rankings are done by polling scouts and other hockey executives and they've been running it since the '80s. It's the same set-up as McKenzie's rankings on TSN — no surprise since McKenzie started it when he was with the Hockey News and continued it for years.

 

Does it have value?

dudacek Hall of Famer

dudacek

Posted
Posted

Does it have value?

 

Not sure how that fits into some of the data analysis you do, but from a readership perspective, I certainly think so.

It gives you a consensus from a variety of NHL draft boards.

Derrico First Liner

Derrico

Posted
Posted

Notable that Button has Hanifin down to 8th and Crouse down to 11th.

 

For goalies, he's got Sandstrom (46th), Blackwood (60th), Booth (63rd), Montembeault (76th), and Vladar (91st).

Very notable.  He seems to be one of the very few that consistently has Hanifin outside of the top 3 or 4.

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