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Crusader1969 First Liner

Crusader1969

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If your boss spent four months sh*tting on your desk would you be feeling really upbeat and encouraged about your situation? Because that's what a tank would feel like to these players.

 

Its amazing to me that Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Patrick Sharp and Dustin Byfuglien ever survived the culture of losing during the 2005 / 06 and 2006 / 07 season with the Black Hawks. Hope someone can explain cause I would assume their careers would be ruined forever!

 

i could be wrong but I believe they may have added elite talent found at the top of the draft and amazingly that was that for the "culture of losing".

Edited by Crusader1969
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Iron Crotch All Star

Iron Crotch

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That article is about the NBA... In the NHL:

 

From 1997-2007 5 of the 11 first overall picks won the cup (all with the team that drafted them).

 

Guys like Stamkos and Tavares (2008 and 2009) could win one before too long/they retire.

 

In that same span (97-07):

2nd overall picks: 3 of 11 win cups with their draft team (2008's Doughty and 2010's Seguin already did so, too)

 

3rd overall picks: 1 of 11 -- Toews. Only one other one even has a championship (Horton).

 

4th overall picks: 1 of 11 -- Andrew Ladd. None of the rest have championships.

 

5th overall picks: 0 of 11 have won a cup since 1997.

 

In time series analysis it is a well-known phenomenon that how you parse the series can yield strongly divergent results (a form of sample selection bias). Over the last 25 years (excluding this year's draft), only 4 first overall picks have won a Cup: Lecavalier (1998 1st overall), Fleury (2003), Crosby (2005), Kane (2007). Fleury and Crosby obviously did so together. Second overalls have actually done quite well with 8 Cups (Seguin, Doughty, Jordan Staal, Bobby Ryan, Malkin, Eric Staal, Tverdosvsky, Pronger). Maybe Sam Reinhart can join that group.

 

What is more interesting is considering clusters of first/second overalls and how the teams did. Pittsburgh had 4 Top-2 picks from 2003-06 and obviously won a Cup. But, Atlanta also had 4 Top-2 picks from 1999-02 and didn't. Same with Ottawa, which had 4 Top-2 overall picks from 1992-1996 and didn't win anything. Quebec had 3 1st overall picks in a row and didn't win a Cup with any of those guys although eventually got one after flipping those guys and moving to Colorado. And, Edmonton obviously is well known with three first overalls and a good shot at another Top-2 pick this year.

 

Higher level point: there is no universal truth in these data. Having a GM who makes consistently smart decisions and "beats the market" more than the competitors is the surest way to success as best as I can tell.

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Drunkard First Liner

Drunkard

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Its amazing to me that Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Patrick Sharp and Dustin Byfuglien ever survived the culture of losing during the 2005 / 06 and 2006 / 07 season with the Black Hawks. Hope someone can explain cause I would assume their careers would be ruined forever!

 

i could be wrong but I believe they may have added elite talent found at the top of the draft and amazingly that was that for the "culture of losing".

 

Exactly. Add in how horrible the Penguins were to get all those high picks as well. The Kings also had a bunch of bad seasons and a culture of losing before getting enough talent to turn the corner. The whole culture of losing thing disappears once that talent makes the roster. Our very own Christian Ehrhoff cited the two biggest reasons he signed with Pittsburgh was Crosby and Malkin. Someone should have told him about their horrible losing culture 10 years ago.

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Crusader1969 First Liner

Crusader1969

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Great article for those who think Sabres are playing well.

 

 

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2304745-will-puck-luck-cause-the-buffalo-sabres-to-miss-out-on-connor-mcdavid

 

best point :

 

Over Buffalo’s lovely 13-game run, the team has surrendered 484 shots against; that ranks 28th in the league. Meanwhile, the Sabres have taken an NHL-low 337 shots; that’s 17 fewer than the 29th-ranked Rangers, a team which has played one less game in that span. At this, the high point of its season, Buffalo is the worst offensive team in the NHL married to almost the very worst defensive team.

The Sabres have been getting away with it because their goalies have posted a 0.930 save percentage while the opposition’s goalies have posted a 0.896 save percentage over the same span, which is the equivalent of Dominik Hasek at one end of the rink and a below-average AHL goalie at the other end

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CallawaySabres First Liner

CallawaySabres

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Great article for those who think Sabres are playing well.

 

 

 

http://bleacherrepor...-connor-mcdavid

 

best point :

 

Over Buffalo’s lovely 13-game run, the team has surrendered 484 shots against; that ranks 28th in the league. Meanwhile, the Sabres have taken an NHL-low 337 shots; that’s 17 fewer than the 29th-ranked Rangers, a team which has played one less game in that span. At this, the high point of its season, Buffalo is the worst offensive team in the NHL married to almost the very worst defensive team.

The Sabres have been getting away with it because their goalies have posted a 0.930 save percentage while the opposition’s goalies have posted a 0.896 save percentage over the same span, which is the equivalent of Dominik Hasek at one end of the rink and a below-average AHL goalie at the other end

 

What we need is for all these teams to stop playing their back-ups

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.55. Prospect

.55.

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What are people seeing in Lawson Crouse that I'm not seeing? As far as I can tell, he's a big guy who doesn't put up many points.

5. Lawson Crouse - Forward - Kingston Frontenacs

The Scoop:

"He might be one of the toughest forwards in the O to knock off his skates when going to the net; very similar to Jack Eichel in that way. He's a big bodied guy, protects the puck and is solid on his skates. He can see the ice well and is able to move the puck to open areas despite his 6-foot-4, 211-pound frame." - Morreale

 

"Elite size and shows tentalizing skill. Everytime I see him though I am lefting wanting more. Not sure if it is because he is missing something or if I get so excited watching him play that I have unrealistic expectations. Defenitly a player who could move up on my list by the end of the year." - Kneulman

 

"Crouse is a player I absolutely love. I had a hard time knocking him down to fourth in my rankings because he’s the player that every coach wants on his team because you can throw him out in every situation and know he’s going to make an impact. One of the smartest two-way forwards in the draft, Crouse has the size and strength that makes him a low-risk selection as he can play up and down the lineup. He’s shown impressive gains in his offensive gains and there’s no reason to think he won’t be a top-six winger at the next level. Every time he hits the ice, he does something – whether it’s dominating the cycle game or stripping an attacking player of possession – that makes you go, “wow, he’s going to be good." - Ross

 

"Intriguing power forward with very good size. He’s a very good skater with a very good burst of speed. He’s hard to contain on the rush, in front of the net or battling along the boards. Positionally smart and knows where to be without the puck. Crouse will probably translate to a secondary scorer but it’s his ability to take over a game physically that is intriguing." - Tiano

 

"The more I see him play, the more he does to make an impression. A solid skater with good puck skills. Strikes me as a smart player. He rarely is out of position." - Ambrogio

 

"He’s huge at 6’4 215lbs at 17 years old and skates very well…still raw though, but a hard combination to pass up." - Maloney

 

"Crouse is one of those players that will be a better pro play than a junior player as a power forward." - Fournier

 

"I have seen a lot of Lawson Crouse from his minor hockey days and now in the OHL and I think he still has another level to reach. Very high hockey IQ. A big man at 6 foot 3 who has excellent skating ability is not easy to find. He uses his frame well to win battles along the boards and forecheck. Strong on the puck, can take contact and drive the net. Would like to see him finish more." - Paiva

 

"A big, physical power forward who undoubtedly will get better as the years go on. Scouts loved him at the CHL-Russia Super Series." - Kennedy

------------------

It seems like everyone says he's big, smart, and a great skater. I've also read that he's very coachable. Not one scout above mentions his shot, which is weird. I guess the last one says they'd like to see him finish more, that's close. Similarly, not one blurb mentions his passing or playmaking. Everyone gets google-eyed for a skill/toughness Lucic-esque guy and Crouse has mentioned that he models parts of his game after Lucic. He has gotten in 9 fights in the past year and a half.

 

He is sitting at 12 goals in 24 games, but has only added 4 assists. The only team in the OHL that has scored fewer goals than his Kingston squad is the tire fire that is Sudbury. Just playing on the same power play as a healthy Sam Bennett would probably add enough secondary points to give Crouse more balance. The low assist total probably sounds worse than it is. It has to be as simple as Team Canada looking to build a squad that can really grind it, sure, but they didn't mind keeping a 17 year old Lawson and his 12+4.

 

With that size, brain, and mobility, you're getting a high floor player. Possession is the focus in today's game and it sounds like he'll be a player who can excel in the board play and the cycle game. That said... where a lot of people have him slated to be picked, though, (top ten? top seven?) you're passing on a lot of dynamically skilled players. I'd be a lot more confident in my ability to luck into a big, fast, tough forward in the later rounds than I would lucking into a late round Zach Werenski.

Edited by .55.
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Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

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I, too, believe Crouse is jncredibly over ranked. Maybe in last year's draft he brings up the rear of the top ten. If we end up with him as our top first rounder then I'll come out and say the tank wasn't worth it.

 

The only guys I think make me feel like we've done well to be this bad are McDavid, Eichel, Hanifin (only dman), Strome, Barzal or Marner. I think we'll get one.

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... All Star

...

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I, too, believe Crouse is jncredibly over ranked. Maybe in last year's draft he brings up the rear of the top ten. If we end up with him as our top first rounder then I'll come out and say the tank wasn't worth it.

 

The only guys I think make me feel like we've done well to be this bad are McDavid, Eichel, Hanifin (only dman), Strome, Barzal or Marner. I think we'll get one.

 

If the Sabres pick at #3, would you want Hanifin, or trade the pick to one of 4-6 plus, obviously, a huge return?

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Crusader1969 First Liner

Crusader1969

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If the Sabres pick at #3, would you want Hanifin, or trade the pick to one of 4-6 plus, obviously, a huge return?

 

Thanks for the great post .55. When Ross mentions ranking him 4th - I believe he means OHL prospects behind Marner, Strome and Zacha(?) not the draft.

 

I will be in the minority but I take Hanifin all day and twice on Tuesday. He will create a ton of offence from the back end, he does everything well.

I then think you have the freedom to trade Myers (or Z) for the scoring forward they desperately need.

 

ISS December rankings

 

http://www.isshockey.com/iss-top-30/

 

Interesting notes - Another scouting service now ranks Werenski ahead of Kylington. I believe that Provorov will also end up ahead of him by the time the draft.

 

I would switch Marner with Barzal - I actually have Marner at #4 - the 155lbs will scare a lot of people but to me he is Patrick Kane 2.0

 

I think we now have to hope the Blues and Islanders go out in the first round. If this happens there is plenty of talent in the 15-20 slot. I would still like to see the Sabres package some picks to move up the draft board.

Edited by Crusader1969
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Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

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Posted (edited)

 

 

If the Sabres pick at #3, would you want Hanifin, or trade the pick to one of 4-6 plus, obviously, a huge return?

 

Would prefer that we move down one and grab Strome unless we pull off a major deal using somebody like Myers.

Edited by Tank
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inkman Hall of Famer

inkman

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Posted

I, too, believe Crouse is jncredibly over ranked. Maybe in last year's draft he brings up the rear of the top ten. If we end up with him as our top first rounder then I'll come out and say the tank wasn't worth it.

 

The only guys I think make me feel like we've done well to be this bad are McDavid, Eichel, Hanifin (only dman), Strome, Barzal or Marner. I think we'll get one.

I'd take him with our 2nd first round pick

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Robviously First Liner

Robviously

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Posted

5. Lawson Crouse - Forward - Kingston Frontenacs

The Scoop:

"He might be one of the toughest forwards in the O to knock off his skates when going to the net; very similar to Jack Eichel in that way. He's a big bodied guy, protects the puck and is solid on his skates. He can see the ice well and is able to move the puck to open areas despite his 6-foot-4, 211-pound frame." - Morreale

 

"Elite size and shows tentalizing skill. Everytime I see him though I am lefting wanting more. Not sure if it is because he is missing something or if I get so excited watching him play that I have unrealistic expectations. Defenitly a player who could move up on my list by the end of the year." - Kneulman

 

"Crouse is a player I absolutely love. I had a hard time knocking him down to fourth in my rankings because he’s the player that every coach wants on his team because you can throw him out in every situation and know he’s going to make an impact. One of the smartest two-way forwards in the draft, Crouse has the size and strength that makes him a low-risk selection as he can play up and down the lineup. He’s shown impressive gains in his offensive gains and there’s no reason to think he won’t be a top-six winger at the next level. Every time he hits the ice, he does something – whether it’s dominating the cycle game or stripping an attacking player of possession – that makes you go, “wow, he’s going to be good." - Ross

 

"Intriguing power forward with very good size. He’s a very good skater with a very good burst of speed. He’s hard to contain on the rush, in front of the net or battling along the boards. Positionally smart and knows where to be without the puck. Crouse will probably translate to a secondary scorer but it’s his ability to take over a game physically that is intriguing." - Tiano

 

"The more I see him play, the more he does to make an impression. A solid skater with good puck skills. Strikes me as a smart player. He rarely is out of position." - Ambrogio

 

"He’s huge at 6’4 215lbs at 17 years old and skates very well…still raw though, but a hard combination to pass up." - Maloney

 

"Crouse is one of those players that will be a better pro play than a junior player as a power forward." - Fournier

 

"I have seen a lot of Lawson Crouse from his minor hockey days and now in the OHL and I think he still has another level to reach. Very high hockey IQ. A big man at 6 foot 3 who has excellent skating ability is not easy to find. He uses his frame well to win battles along the boards and forecheck. Strong on the puck, can take contact and drive the net. Would like to see him finish more." - Paiva

 

"A big, physical power forward who undoubtedly will get better as the years go on. Scouts loved him at the CHL-Russia Super Series." - Kennedy

------------------

It seems like everyone says he's big, smart, and a great skater. I've also read that he's very coachable. Not one scout above mentions his shot, which is weird. I guess the last one says they'd like to see him finish more, that's close. Similarly, not one blurb mentions his passing or playmaking. Everyone gets google-eyed for a skill/toughness Lucic-esque guy and Crouse has mentioned that he models parts of his game after Lucic. He has gotten in 9 fights in the past year and a half.

 

He is sitting at 12 goals in 24 games, but has only added 4 assists. The only team in the OHL that has scored fewer goals than his Kingston squad is the tire fire that is Sudbury. Just playing on the same power play as a healthy Sam Bennett would probably add enough secondary points to give Crouse more balance. The low assist total probably sounds worse than it is. It has to be as simple as Team Canada looking to build a squad that can really grind it, sure, but they didn't mind keeping a 17 year old Lawson and his 12+4.

 

With that size, brain, and mobility, you're getting a high floor player. Possession is the focus in today's game and it sounds like he'll be a player who can excel in the board play and the cycle game. That said... where a lot of people have him slated to be picked, though, (top ten? top seven?) you're passing on a lot of dynamically skilled players. I'd be a lot more confident in my ability to luck into a big, fast, tough forward in the later rounds than I would lucking into a late round Zach Werenski.

Great recap and thanks for the info. But this is still NOT the type of player I'd want in the top 5, and top 10 seems questionable as well. It's a lot of "he's big and strong, but he can't quite finish yet." At some point you just want the guy who gets the job done even if he isn't a giant. Can you really build around a guy who isn't even a prolific scorer in Juniors?

 

If we're talking about our second 1st round pick, I still love the idea of Korostelev, even if we have to move up a few spots to get him. Even more so if we end up with Zacha since they already play together in Sarnia. #ChroniclesOfSarnia

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MattPie All Star

MattPie

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Great recap and thanks for the info. But this is still NOT the type of player I'd want in the top 5, and top 10 seems questionable as well. It's a lot of "he's big and strong, but he can't quite finish yet." At some point you just want the guy who gets the job done even if he isn't a giant. Can you really build around a guy who isn't even a prolific scorer in Juniors?

 

If we're talking about our second 1st round pick, I still love the idea of Korostelev, even if we have to move up a few spots to get him. Even more so if we end up with Zacha since they already play together in Sarnia. #ChroniclesOfSarnia

 

While I don't pay that much attention to the draft, it's also suspect when a player's game can be explained by being bigger than everyone else. Will his "size and strength" game translate when everyone is bigger and stronger?

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Crusader1969 First Liner

Crusader1969

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I don't think there is any doubt he will go in top 10 - Maybe even in the 5-7 range.

 

You don't see his combination of size and skating abilty very often, plus he has a non-stop motor. I think he is a case of where you have to look deeper than just the stats to see his impact. He hasn't put up a lot of points with Kingston this year but for Canada at this summers Ivan Hlinka he did lead the team by scoring 6 goals in 5 games - a team that featured Strome, Marner and Barzal. You will have a real good idea about Crouse over the next two weeks.

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Taro T Hall of Famer

Taro T

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Great recap and thanks for the info. But this is still NOT the type of player I'd want in the top 5, and top 10 seems questionable as well. It's a lot of "he's big and strong, but he can't quite finish yet." At some point you just want the guy who gets the job done even if he isn't a giant. Can you really build around a guy who isn't even a prolific scorer in Juniors?

 

If we're talking about our second 1st round pick, I still love the idea of Korostelev, even if we have to move up a few spots to get him. Even more so if we end up with Zacha since they already play together in Sarnia. #ChroniclesOfSarnia

You wouldn't want Erik Rasmussen taken w/ a top 10 pick? :unsure:

 

;)

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