Official 2015 NHL Draft Thread

rakish · August 14, 2014

USDP? not as much. The problems in valuating college kids are 2.

First, there are very few 17 year olds in NCAA because you have to be born in the right couple of months, so there are more 17 year olds in the NHL from USDP than in NCAA at 17. I could do more work on 18 year olds, but I haven't yet.

The second is the method I'm using. It's hard to tell if you are a boy in men's league, leagues like KHL and Liiga and SEL, or whatever it's called now, are difficult. It's much easier when you lead the team, so I worry less about a USDP valuation than a KHL. College kids generally don't lead their team, so it's not as difficult as KHL, so it's in between the easy ones (CHL) and the hard ones.

I'm fairly confident in the Eichel valuation. Look at Eichel and the other USDP's. Eichel outscores three top 20 picks a year half older at an age when PPG increases by 50%/year or so.

On the other hand, you may be right. Patrick Kane is probably a bit high, I could see Eichel being rated a bit high. We'll see more this year.

shrader · August 14, 2014

I just mention the USHL because that's where the developmental team plays a lot of their games. They're kind of an odd situation too with all of the exhibition games against college teams and international tourneys. I've never actually bothered to look, but I assume the stats you find listed online are from those USHL league games.

And I missed the age specific thing when skimming this. I yeah, my college question doesn't mean anything anymore.

rakish · August 14, 2014

I ignore the USHL part of the season and just use the USDP. I looked at it for awhile, and USDP grads aren't really comparable to USHL grads. So in the end I'm comparing new grads (Larkin-Eichel-Milano) to previous grads (Kane-van Riemsdyke-Schroeder) to get an idea on the scoring that the new grads will do. I do that with each variable, so I looked at all the players Eichel's size, and see how they translated to the NHL, all the November born players, etc...

Each league has their own wrinkle, so you don't get each stat for each player. There's a lot more data I'd like to have, but I work with what I got.

rakish · August 14, 2014

Whoops, made a mistake, the Kariya 1993 numbers are just silly, I typoed entering data, fixed the d46.php chart

Crusader1969 · August 18, 2014

2015 NHL Draft - 50 Weeks and 50 Prospects (In no particular order)

Week 1 Brock Boeser C Waterloo USHL 6’0 195lbs

Week 2 Nathan Noel C Saint John QMJHL 5’10 163lbs

Week 3 Mathew Barzal C Seattle WHL 5’11 174lbs

Week 4 - Mitchell Marner C London Knights 5’10 164lb

Week 5 Matthew Spencer D Peterborough 6’2 190lbs

Week 6 Nick Boka D USNTDP u18 6’1 196lb

WEEK 7 Zachary Werenski D University of Michigan 6’2 210lbs

Career Highlites:

2014 Fast-tracked to play for Michigan Wolverines in fall 2014

2014-15 Listed on CSS Futures North American List

2013-14 Represented USA at the World Under-17 Championships

Zach is a big defenseman who concentrates mainly on his end of the rink. He uses his stick well but isn’t overly physical. He is a fluid skater and possesses decent offensive skills. Possesses a good hockey sense and has good vision while in possession of the puck. Checks with his stick and needs to learn to use his body and strength more, something he is working on.

Currently ranked 16 by Future Considerations and considered a mid first round pick at this time

Edited August 19, 2014 by Crusader1969

Crusader1969 · August 19, 2014

Youngblood: OHL Sends Strong 2015 NHL Draft Crop [Top 10] | McKeen's Hockey

I love the list and think Vandle Sompel is the only D who has the opportunity to somehow get into the top 5 of this list based on his play this summer with Team Canada U18 Team. Though getting picked before any of Marner, Strome, Crouse or Konecny is going to take a special season from Vandle Sompel.

I'll be estatic if the Sabres can land McDavid / Eichel and any one of the OHL top forwards (including Zacha).

dudacek · August 20, 2014

Nobody posted this one yet?

The tank lives. Looks like last place still guarantees McEichel.

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=459859

Hoss · August 20, 2014

Nobody posted this one yet?

The tank lives. Looks like last place still guarantees McEichel.

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=459859

That was never going to change.

PotentPowerPlay22 · August 21, 2014

The NHL announced changes on how the 2015 draft lottery will be held. At first glance I believe the changes increase the odds that the Sabres get the top pick. First of all, I don't believe the Sabres will finish in the bottom two. I believe they will miss the playoffs and enter the lottery. The new rules increase the chances that lottery teams can win the first pick, therefore Buffalo's odds improve. I honestly don't believe the Sabres are smart enough to go into the tank to get a top two pick. Knowing how things happen in Buffalo they will finish 5th worst and avoid getting McDavid or Eichel.

Byebye · August 25, 2014

The NHL announced changes on how the 2015 draft lottery will be held. At first glance I believe the changes increase the odds that the Sabres get the top pick. First of all, I don't believe the Sabres will finish in the bottom two. I believe they will miss the playoffs and enter the lottery. The new rules increase the chances that lottery teams can win the first pick, therefore Buffalo's odds improve. I honestly don't believe the Sabres are smart enough to go into the tank to get a top two pick. Knowing how things happen in Buffalo they will finish 5th worst and avoid getting McDavid or Eichel.

Well the odds are decreased for teams that finish 27th to 30th, so assuming the sabres and the islanders finish out of the bottom 4 our odds will increase. However, if either team finishes inside of the bottom 3, our odds are reduced. The odds say that the sabres will finish bottom 3 so the odds are that our odds will be reduced. I hope everyone can understand, that's a lot of odds.

The only way these changes can help us is for the islanders to win the lottery outside of the bottom 4. What would be really sweet is of we finished last and the islanders won the lottery.

Taro T · August 25, 2014

Well the odds are decreased for teams that finish 27th to 30th, so assuming the sabres and the islanders finish out of the bottom 4 our odds will increase. However, if either team finishes inside of the bottom 3, our odds are reduced. The odds say that the sabres will finish bottom 3 so the odds are that our odds will be reduced. I hope everyone can understand, that's a lot of odds.

The only way these changes can help us is for the islanders to win the lottery outside of the bottom 4. What would be really sweet is of we finished last and the islanders won the lottery.

Isles finishing last w/ Sabres (or better yet, the near impossibility of the Blues) winning the lottery would be even sweeter.

Crusader1969 · August 27, 2014

2015 NHL Draft - 50 Weeks and 50 Prospects (In no particular order)

Week 1 Brock Boeser C Waterloo USHL 6’0 195lbs

Week 2 Nathan Noel C Saint John QMJHL 5’10 163lbs

Week 3 Mathew Barzal C Seattle WHL 5’11 174lbs

Week 4 - Mitchell Marner C London Knights 5’10 164lb

Week 5 Matthew Spencer D Peterborough 6’2 190lbs

Week 6 Nick Boka D USNTDP u18 6’1 196lb

Week 7 Zachary Werenski D University of Michigan 6’2 210lbs

Week 8 Nicolas Meloche D Baie-Comeau 6’2 198lbs

Career Highlites:

2014

Represented Canada at the Ivan Hlinka Tournament

2013

1

^st

round pick (15

^th

overall) by Baie-Comeau in the 2013 QMJHL Entry Draft

Nicolas is a big, steady, shut down defenseman. He has NHL size and plays a physical defensive game. He is reliable at both ends of the ice but is a “defense first” type of player. He skates well and is able to join the rush when the opportunity presents itself. His skating is thought to be excellent and possesses a heavy shot.

He is currently thought to be a mid-second round selection in the upcoming 2015 NHL draft

Crusader1969 · August 27, 2014

Full list of Players invited to the USA Hockey All-American Prospects game

September 25 - FNC

USA Hockey All American Prospects

Players invited who are thought to be picked in the top 2 rounds in next years NHL Draft:

Brock Boeser – F Waterloo Black Hawks

Nick Boka – D USNDT U18

Zach Werenski – D University of Michigan

Brendan Warren – F USNDT U18

Tom Novak – F Waterloo Black Hawks

Dennis Yan – F Shawinigan

Colin White – F USNDT U18

Noah Hanifin – D Boston College

Kyle Connor – F Youngstown

Jordan Greenway – F USNDT U18

Paul Bittner – F Portland

Jeremy Bracco – F USNDT U18

Jack Eichel – F Boston U

Crusader1969 · September 1, 2014

2015 NHL Draft - 50 Weeks and 50 Prospects (In no particular order)

Week 1 Brock Boeser C Waterloo USHL 6’0 195lbs

Week 2 Nathan Noel C Saint John QMJHL 5’10 163lbs

Week 3 Mathew Barzal C Seattle WHL 5’11 174lbs

Week 4 - Mitchell Marner C London Knights 5’10 164lb

Week 5 Matthew Spencer D Peterborough 6’2 190lbs

Week 6 Nick Boka D USNTDP u18 6’1 196lb

Week 7 Zachary Werenski D University of Michigan 6’2 210lbs

Week 8 Nicolas Meloche D Baie-Comeau 6’2 198lbs

Week 9 Lawson Crouse LW Kingston 6’4 212lbs

Career Highlights:

2014 Represented Canada at the Ivan Hlinka Under 18 Tournament scoring 6 goals in 5 games played

2013 Selected in 1st round (5th overall) by Kingston in the OHL Entry draft

A big bodied winger, who plays a physical game that can dominate in puck possession battles. His compete level is extremely high and will not hesitate to drive to the front of the net. Has a good shot and can play both on the power play and penalty kill. He uses his size well in cutting down angles in the defensive zone. It is said that he has average speed and quickness that needs to be improved. If he can get faster and improve on his 15 goals scored in 2013/14 (6 goals at the Ivan Hlinka is a good start) he should be in top 10 conversation

Currently ranked 18 by Future Considerations

Edited September 1, 2014 by Crusader1969

LGR4GM · September 2, 2014

Lawson Crouse is a player I really like. He combines the necessary size with the skill and work ethic to be a 1/2 line winger. Definitely a player to watch and someone we could conceivably get with the NYI pick.

Crusader1969 · September 4, 2014

_{Article on Noah Hanifin of interest}

_{Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel are great, but don’t sleep on Noah Hanifin | Post-to-Post}

LGR4GM · September 5, 2014

_{Article on Noah Hanifin of interest}

_{Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel are great, but don’t sleep on Noah Hanifin | Post-to-Post}

Sitting here in September, he would be my pick at 3.

Crusader1969 · September 9, 2014

Top Prospects Round Sept 8TH

MHL

Alexander Dergachyov F SKA-1946 St. Petersburg MHL (6’4 201lbs)/ Ranked 22 by DraftBuzz - 0G 1A in 2-1 victory

Edited September 9, 2014 by Crusader1969

Huckleberry · September 10, 2014

Sitting here in September, he would be my pick at 3.

Well if we had to pick at 3 i would be ok with him, can always trade myers for a top 6 winger then.

Just hope Grigorenko turns into a solid #2 then.

Crusader1969 · September 10, 2014

Article on Kyle Conner (Thanks rakish - need to let caffine kick in before posting) - Potential top 10 pick

http://www.allamericanprospectsgame.com/news_article/show/417616?referrer_id=641381

Edited September 10, 2014 by Crusader1969

LGR4GM · September 10, 2014

Well if we had to pick at 3 i would be ok with him, can always trade myers for a top 6 winger then.

Just hope Grigorenko turns into a solid #2 then.

Well you turn around with the NYI pick and take Dylan Strome then if you get Hanafin at #3. Trading Myers is always an option but if we get another top tier defender you gotta use picks NYI and STL on forwards IMPO. We shall see.

Hoss · September 10, 2014

Well you turn around with the NYI pick and take Dylan Strome then if you get Hanafin at #3. Trading Myers is always an option but if we get another top tier defender you gotta use picks NYI and STL on forwards IMPO. We shall see.

Strome, Barzal, Konecny, Zacha, White... Lots of options depending on where their pick sits.

SabresBillsFan · September 10, 2014

If I'm Buffalo I use 2 of the first rounders on offense and 1 on a defenseman in the first round in the 2015 draft. I still think at the deadline Stafford and/or Stewart get moved. It's going to be interesting how this season plays out.

Derrico · September 10, 2014

You take BPA with any/all picks in the top 10 IMO. Outside of that you lean to forward unless there is a guy you absolutely love on D sitting there.

LGR4GM · September 10, 2014

Strome, Barzal, Konecny, Zacha, White... Lots of options depending on where their pick sits.

In my mind Konecny and Zacha are both gone when the Isles pick comes up. In that scenaro and going into the season I favor Strome. Strome will see some time with McDavid this year so his numbers will be questioned but he is 6'3" 187lbs as a 17yr old. He skates well and I hear good things about his shot. He is one of my guys to watch. I also really like Zacha but I think he will be drafted 3-5th overall and we will not be picking there most likely. Konecny needs a growth spurt for me to draft him but that is on my own personal taste and I could see the Sabres interested in him. He just reminds me a bit of bigger more talented tyler ennis.

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