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Official 2015 NHL Draft Thread

LGR4GM

By LGR4GM
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Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

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Trying to dig a bit deeper on some guys I like beyond our first three picks...

 

At 51:

 

Mitchell Stephens, C, Saginaw (OHL)

He's mainly an offensive player at this point in the career, but I've heard nothing but good things about the kid's work ethic. He's a go-getter that is dangerous with the puck and shows a will to go after it. His desire to play the game should allow him to keep getting better as his career goes on. I really like this kid. Speed skater.

 

Graham Knott, LW, Niagara (OHL)

I got a chance to see Knott in person. He isn't a guy you want carrying the puck, but he's a pure power winger right now. He'll make some noise in front of the net and make everything easier for the other players on his team. Strong strong kid. He's a few years off due to his skating, but if he works hard on that he could turn into a prototypical power forward.

 

In the 4th and beyond:

Austin Strand, D, Red Deer (WHL)

Big kid with the makings of a shutdown dman. He won't do much for you offensively, but he's okay with that. Scouts have him pegged as a late bloomer. Only one year in the WHL to this point and is likely a 4-5 year development. I think the kid has the potential to grow and become a bottom-pairing grinder.

 

Adam Marsh, LW, Saint John (QMJHL)

This kid is going to be a late-round steal for somebody. He's a Chicago native. He got blacklisted because he has some off-ice issues. Attention deficit disorder almost derailed his career entirely (really, read about it). But he's got a ton of skill. A big-time scorer who led his team in goals in season one with the Ice Dogs. If he can pack on some pounds he'll be a pure-offensive top-six winger someday. I really believe in this kid if he can overcome off-ice issues.

 

 

 

 

All-name team:

 

Samuel Dove-McFalls - Hayden McCool - Andrew Mangiapane

Roope Hintz - Filip Ahl - Gabriel Slight

Sebastian Aho - Albin Storm - Jens Looke

Rihards Bukarts - Joel Eriksson Ek - Spencer Smallman

 

Ryan Pilon - Chaz Reddekopp

Ethan Bear - Damir Sharipzyanov

Thomas Schemitsch - Sebastian Aho

 

Matej Tomek

Samuel Montembeault

 

(No really, there are two dudes named Sebastian Aho in this draft)

Two or less First Liner

Two or less

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Good call on Stephens. I like him a lot as well and each time ive read about him, theres people praising his compete and competitiveness levels.

 

Guys i like at 51- Christian Fischer (6'1) RW. Committed to Notre Dame. High IQ player. Good all-around game. Thomas Novak (6'0) a playmaking center. Committed to Minnesota. Great skater. Ive heard scouts say the only thing that can hold him back from being a star is size and strength. GMTM has mentioned several times he likes the college route for some players bc it allows you more time in the gym, ect. Also, for defense, Travis Dermott, played at Erie last season. He's smallish but a smart player. Can be a PPQB. Also ive liked Vince Dunn and Rasmus Andersson a lot too.

 

Beyond the 4th and beyond- A name to watch is Tristen Pfeifer. This kid dominated the leagues in Arizona. He finally went to Canada and Everett (WHL) last year and was able to play with better competition and still played real well there. Has offensive upside but is more of a stay at home. Great skater. He's a big kid (6'4). He logged much of his minutes in the WHL vs. opponent top lines and saw tons of PK time. Impressive how quickly he adapted from his league in Arizona to the WHL. Still raw but huge potential. I also like Andrew Nielsen. Another big (6'3) d-men, great skater, two way, good puck moving, smart kid. Ales Stezka looks like a big time goalie. He's 6'3 and really well positioned. Ive heard a scout say he has the potential of ending up being the best goalie in this draft. 

 

Other guys i like, Felix Sandstrom (Sweden, G). He is actually teammates with last years Sabres goalie pick Johansson. His movement is great. He had a poor U18 tournament, thus dropped like a rock in ratings. Had he had a good U18, he would of been maybe the second goalie taken in this draft after Samsonov. Pius Suter i think is a mega sleeper in this draft. A small player (listed 5'11) but people say hes smaller. Hard worker, gamer, high compete level. Swiss player just scored 43 goals for the OHL champions. I also like Chase Pearson a lot. 6'2, son of former Sabres Scott Pearson. Hard worker, smart player, loves to play physical. He was on hockey hotline and was interviewed by Brian Duff on sabres.com, in both he sounded great i thought. He's comitted to play at University of Maine next year.

LGR4GM Hall of Famer

LGR4GM

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I always forget we drafted Jonas Johansson.  That said the Sabres actually do have some good goalie prospects.  Linus Ullmark, Andrey Makarov, Jonas Johansson, Cal Petersen.  So while I agree we should take a GT earlier in this draft, I don't think it is a dire situation.  Also any GT we take is at least 3-4 years away from NHL duty.  

 

 

I want to add outside of GT's (we have 6) the next fewest prospects by position is defense with 7.  Outside of McCabe the rest I wouldn't put a lot of faith in. We are woefully weak in defensive prospect depth.  Also unlike forwards who are broken into C, RW, LW. Defenders are simply defenders.  

Edited by LGR4GM
3putt First Liner

3putt

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Oh. Strange. Kyle Connor isn't nearly a top five player. He won't "slip" out of the top five. He isn't even in consideration there.

Connor is the American Dylan Strome, but a far better skater. Hasn't had the competition but will at Michigan. 

Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

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I always forget we drafted Jonas Johansson. That said the Sabres actually do have some good goalie prospects. Linus Ullmark, Andrey Makarov, Jonas Johansson, Cal Petersen. So while I agree we should take a GT earlier in this draft, I don't think it is a dire situation. Also any GT we take is at least 3-4 years away from NHL duty.

 

 

I want to add outside of GT's (we have 6) the next fewest prospects by position is defense with 7. Outside of McCabe the rest I wouldn't put a lot of faith in. We are woefully weak in defensive prospect depth. Also unlike forwards who are broken into C, RW, LW. Defenders are simply defenders.

I disagree that we have any good goalie prospects. Ullmark is the only one that I think approaches that's. The rest are high-ceiling guys with a bad shot at ever making it. We should be looking to add to that group.

 

On 6 goalies and 7 dmen: that's largely because you only dress two goalies and six dmen. But I agree that we should add to both stables.

#freejame First Liner

#freejame

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I had an awful dream last night that Bettman decided to award the #1 overall pick to Chicago because he wanted them to skill be good even with their cap issue. That pushed Buffalo into third and GMTM refused to pick and the city rioted. Not really relevant, but it took me a while this morning to realize it was a dream. 

ubkev All Star

ubkev

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Games played by first-round position (look at the weirdness of 15):

 

Fele2xu.jpg

So what you're saying is basically, let the GMs kid pick a name from a hat in the 5th round, and never pick 15th overall.

North Buffalo All Star

North Buffalo

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I had an awful dream last night that Bettman decided to award the #1 overall pick to Chicago because he wanted them to skill be good even with their cap issue. That pushed Buffalo into third and GMTM refused to pick and the city rioted. Not really relevant, but it took me a while this morning to realize it was a dream.

 

Aweful dream:( Just got done with a Michael Connolly which written with similar scenario but with no hockey.

 

Hoss, what interests me most about your chart is the success of undrafted players vs those chosen in later rounds, I guess that is the difference between guessing at a potential late bloomer and signing one that has shown some proof?

Edited by North Buffalo
LGR4GM Hall of Famer

LGR4GM

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John Vogl indicates Murray is willing to trade #21 and Grigorenko for a young established NHL player. 

 

http://www.buffalonews.com/city-region/sabres-have-options-after-no-2-pick-20150622

"Tim Murray’s primary objective is to trade the selection for a young, established player. The general manager has been willing to package center Mikhail Grigorenko with No. 21 in trades, a source said.

Murray’s other hope is that a draftee listed in the organization’s top 10 falls to that spot. He wasn’t optimistic last week of achieving either goal, but more general managers are talking to each other this week."

WildCard Hall of Famer

WildCard

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John Vogl indicates Murray is willing to trade #21 and Grigorenko for a young established NHL player. 

 

http://www.buffalonews.com/city-region/sabres-have-options-after-no-2-pick-20150622

"Tim Murray’s primary objective is to trade the selection for a young, established player. The general manager has been willing to package center Mikhail Grigorenko with No. 21 in trades, a source said.

Murray’s other hope is that a draftee listed in the organization’s top 10 falls to that spot. He wasn’t optimistic last week of achieving either goal, but more general managers are talking to each other this week."

This makes me happy. I doubt that means O'Reilly, but it does signify what he's been saying for years: he wants an accelerated rebuild. 

Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

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This makes me happy. I doubt that means O'Reilly, but it does signify what he's been saying for years: he wants an accelerated rebuild.

I don't think it's specifically about O'Reilly but there's zero doubt that he's in that category.

WildCard Hall of Famer

WildCard

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I don't think it's specifically about O'Reilly but there's zero doubt that he's in that category.

I mean more so that the package isn't suited for O'Reily, not that he doesn't fit that description
Taro T Hall of Famer

Taro T

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Aweful dream:( Just got done with a Michael Connolly which written with similar scenario but with no hockey.

Hoss, what interests me most about your chart is the success of undrafted players vs those chosen in later rounds, I guess that is the difference between guessing at a potential late bloomer and signing one that has shown some proof?

That, and that there are 30 5th rounders, 30 6th rounders, and 30 7th rounders in any given year and literally thousands of undrafted players each year. Low odds for any one guy to make it, but collectively the odds are good that somebody from "the field" makes it.

 

As an analogy, would you prefer to drop $5 on the Blue Jackets winning it all this year or $5 on one of Buffalo, Calgary, the Eulers, the Isles, Joisey, Winnipeg, Florida, & the Otters winning it all. The odds aren't good for either, but the field is the better bet.

Hoss Hall of Famer

Hoss

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That, and that there are 30 5th rounders, 30 6th rounders, and 30 7th rounders in any given year and literally thousands of undrafted players each year. Low odds for any one guy to make it, but collectively the odds are good that somebody from "the field" makes it.

 

As an analogy, would you prefer to drop $5 on the Blue Jackets winning it all this year or $5 on one of Buffalo, Calgary, the Eulers, the Isles, Joisey, Winnipeg, Florida, & the Otters winning it all. The odds aren't good for either, but the field is the better bet.

There aren't thousands of undrafted players that get a shot in the NHL. There are a handful. Far less than 90.

 

But the reason that undrafted players have more success than late-round guys is because those undrafted guys, most of the time, are guys who turned it on after their draft year. If they were 17-18 when they signed instead of 20-21 like many are then they would be 1st or 2nd round picks.

Taro T Hall of Famer

Taro T

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There aren't thousands of undrafted players that get a shot in the NHL. There are a handful. Far less than 90.

But the reason that undrafted players have more success than late-round guys is because those undrafted guys, most of the time, are guys who turned it on after their draft year. If they were 17-18 when they signed instead of 20-21 like many are then they would be 1st or 2nd round picks.

I didn't say that thousands of them get a shot. Rarely do all 30 kids drafted in the 5th round get a (legit) shot at the NHL and there will never be a day when all 30 kids drafted in the 7th get a legit shot. But the pool of players that go undrafted that MAY be NHLers is orders of magnitude larger than the number of 5th, 6th, or 7th rounders. Though a significantly lower percentage of those kids get a shot there are even more significantly more of them out there available to get that shot.

 

And, thank you Captain Obvious, for stating that the undrafted guys that have success turned it on after their draft year. That same can be said for those 7th rounders that make it. Had the 7th rounder that makes it looked like he was a sure fire 3rd liner he'd have been picked in the 2nd, not the 7th. Just like the undrafted guy would have gotten picked had he looked better at 18.

 

Each round out you go, it becomes more of a crap shoot, obviously. The fact that worldwide there are literally thousands of draft eligible '97's that have played at reasonably competitive levels right now that will be available at pick 121 and exactly 90 of them will go in those next 3 rounds is why more of those kids that aren't picked (in all likelihood) in those 90 slots will become NHLers than those 90 that are picked.

 

If there are two more magnitudes of bodies that go undrafted relative to those that go late, if those picks hit at 10% what a 5-7th rounder would then there'll be 10 times as many UDFA's / overage draftees making the show as there are 5-7th rounders.

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