Official 2015 NHL Draft Thread

[rakish]

Would love to see your list of 14.  I've been trying to coerce people around here to put up a ranking so we can compare how they did vs. Murray in a few years.  From looking at old rankings, it takes about 50 or so to cover the 7 rounds.  Maybe 20 for me.

 

As I've said, I think the dropoff happens after 9.  I think Murray goes goaltender at 21, but for me, all goaltender stats are useless, which leaves my faux-Sabres likely drafting D at 21.

[Crusader1969]

If I'm GMTM I just hate being at #21.

I see a real fall off in talent around #14. especially in terms of NHL skating skills.

I think GMTM would rather trade the rest of his draft after #2 Jack to move up, than pick a Russian skater at 21.

 

I know mid 1st round Russians never seem to pan out.

 

Varlamov - pick 23 2006

Cherepanov - Pick 17 2007

Kulikov - pick 14 2009

Tarasenko - Pick 16 2010

Kuztnetsov - Pick 26 2010

Vasilevskiy - Pick 19 2011

Zadorov - Pick 16 2012

 

So out of all the Russians picked between 14 and 26 in last 10 years one died and the rest have made an impact in the NHL. But besides all of them - none seem to have worked. out.

 

 

[shrader]

You used an awfully convenient cutoff point in that analysis.  What if you spread that range out to, say, 12th overall?

[Crusader1969]

You used an awfully convenient cutoff point in that analysis.  What if you spread that range out to, say, 12th overall?

 

You can add Grigorenko - I'm not done with him at all.

 

Its not really analysis - its just listing all Russians drafted in what I considered mid first round 12-26 now.

 

The fear of drafting a mid round Russian is that he bolts for the KHL. Even adding Grigorenko all who have been drafted (cept the deceased) signed an NHL contract. So, as I said, except for all of them none of worked out for the team drafting them. I can see why Murray would want to stay away.

 

Guryanov would be a top 10 pick if his name was Bob Smith from the Oshawa Generals. 

Edited June 18, 2015 by Crusader1969

[dudacek]

I'm inclined to agree with Crusader.

There seems to be a trend of undervalued 1st round Russians in the past 10 years.

 

And if Samson is a smokescreen Murray just did a good job fanning the flames.

[shrader]

I'm inclined to agree with Crusader.

There seems to be a trend of undervalued 1st round Russians in the past 10 years.

 

And if Samson is a smokescreen Murray just did a good job fanning the flames.

 

There's a couple factors there.  With the ones actually taken in the first round, the teams typically have a good feeling that they'll come over/stay in the States.  What we're missing are the ones who fall into later rounds because there is little hope of them coming over.  Then there were all the years where there hasn't been a transfer agreement.  If they're not already here, there's one hell of a risk of using a pick on them.

 

These guys fall for good reason.  Sure, they're good players, but unfortunately their nationality is as much a risk factor as height or weight or injury history.  I'm not going to fault a team for passing on them.  But then again, certain teams that have a handful of early round picks do have the luxury of being able to take that risk.

[Derrico]

You can add Grigorenko - I'm not done with him at all.

 

Its not really analysis - its just listing all Russians drafted in what I considered mid first round 12-26 now.

 

The fear of drafting a mid round Russian is that he bolts for the KHL. Even adding Grigorenko all who have been drafted (cept the deceased) signed an NHL contract. So, as I said, except for all of them none of worked out for the team drafting them. I can see why Murray would want to stay away.

 

Guryanov would be a top 10 pick if his name was Bob Smith from the Oshawa Generals. 

Go Gens Go!!  SMITH!!!! (in NS voice).

[X. Benedict]

I know mid 1st round Russians never seem to pan out.

 

Varlamov - pick 23 2006

Cherepanov - Pick 17 2007

Kulikov - pick 14 2009

Tarasenko - Pick 16 2010

Kuztnetsov - Pick 26 2010

Vasilevskiy - Pick 19 2011

Zadorov - Pick 16 2012

 

So out of all the Russians picked between 14 and 26 in last 10 years one died and the rest have made an impact in the NHL. But besides all of them - none seem to have worked. out.

 

 

Lemme splain......

 

The issue is not so much Russian talent. There is plenty. I don't dispute that. The bigger issue is stockpiling trading chits. Because of the uncertainty of controlling a Russian players development, it becomes really hard to stockpile players in the situation where you want to move them for team needs. Because other teams have a hard time scouting Russians, and they might not be playing a North American game .....They don't  become liquid assets. 

 

For example. Guryanov - there is the risk he stays in the KHL . .....but if the Sabres draft him and he isn't in the Sabres organization - he isn't a liquid asset to move like

a Brendan Lemieux for example......who never played for the Sabres, but was a liquid asset. 

 

At #21 I don't want to pick a Russian.

 

As far as the Sabres own Russians.......Grigorenko and Zadorov......the Sabres have burned through 3 and 1 years of contracts respectively when they should have been learning the game in the AHL. Isn't that reason enough by itself. (and those were players higher than 21). 

Edited June 18, 2015 by X. Benedict

[Crusader1969]

There's a couple factors there.  With the ones actually taken in the first round, the teams typically have a good feeling that they'll come over/stay in the States.  What we're missing are the ones who fall into later rounds because there is little hope of them coming over.  Then there were all the years where there hasn't been a transfer agreement.  If they're not already here, there's one hell of a risk of using a pick on them.

 

These guys fall for good reason.  Sure, they're good players, but unfortunately their nationality is as much a risk factor as height or weight or injury history.  I'm not going to fault a team for passing on them.  But then again, certain teams that have a handful of early round picks do have the luxury of being able to take that risk.

 

 

 

1) Tarasenko was passed over in 2010 by many teams because they feared he wouldn't leave the KHL when his contract was up in 2012.

2) Kuznetsov dropped to 26th even though he was considered one of the most talented players in the draft.

 

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=764926

 

Wonder how many teams are disappointed they didn't take a chance on these players.

.

 

As far as the Sabres own Russians.......Grigorenko and Zadorov......the Sabres have burned through 3 and 1 years of contracts respectively when they should have been learning the game in the AHL. Isn't that reason enough by itself. (and those were players higher than 21). 

 

Seriously, are you guys just posting without doing any research at all?

 

Sabres blew the Grigorenko contract by playing him at 18 when he wasn't ready- had nothing to do with his nationality. Zadorov wasn't eligible to play in the AHL - that was the problem not that he was Russian.

 

If you draft Guryanov why would you want to trade him before he develops? Im not sure of the uncertainty. The last 7 Russians drafted between picks 12-26 all signed NHL contracts.Wonder what kind of haul the Blues could get for 

 

Tarasenko right now if they wanted to trade him? but they won't - he is too good and they will match any RFA contract he is given.

 

We all understand the economic problems they are having in Russia and the unstable footing the KHL is on? The Russian factor scares me as much as someone saying I won't get presents from Santa if I don't behave or I will go to hell if I don't believe in God.  Its all much to do about nothing.

Edited June 18, 2015 by Crusader1969

[LGR4GM]

I wouldn't draft Guryanov that high because he hasn't played against adequate competition enough times to actually get a good feel for his game. Svechnikov on the other hand at least played in the Q and we can gauge the talent level.

[X. Benedict]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think I can google Kovalchuk, Radulov and Sobotka. Can you? 

[shrader]

1) Tarasenko was passed over in 2010 by many teams because they feared he wouldn't leave the KHL when his contract was up in 2012.

2) Kuznetsov dropped to 26th even though he was considered one of the most talented players in the draft.

 

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=764926

 

Wonder how many teams are disappointed they didn't take a chance on these players.

 

Welcome to the same exact story that is told about countless drafted players over the years.  There are also just as many where teams are glad they passed over certain players.  I know Winnipeg's thrilled that they took Burmistrov that year.  The book's also not completed.  The risk doesn't suddenly go away the second they're here.  What if these guys pull a Radulov or a Kovalchuk after a few years?  If nothing else, that negotation ploy is always going to be out there each time these guy's contracts are up. 

 

It's one extra issue that teams need to factor into their decisions when looking at these guys.  I could definitely see the Sabres rolling the dice because by all accounts, they should already have a home run selection made in this draft.

[Crusader1969]

I think I can google Kovalchuk, Radulov and Sobotka. Can you? 

 

 

Did they all sign NHL contracts to start with? So because 3 Russians have left the NHL for the KHL in the last 8 years you are going to write them off completely? Funny all 3 of those guys are rumored to want back to the NHL. 

Welcome to the same exact story that is told about countless drafted players over the years.  There are also just as many where teams are glad they passed over certain players.  I know Winnipeg's thrilled that they took Burmistrov that year.  The book's also not completed.  The risk doesn't suddenly go away the second they're here.  What if these guys pull a Radulov or a Kovalchuk after a few years?  If nothing else, that negotation ploy is always going to be out there each time these guy's contracts are up. 

 

It's one extra issue that teams need to factor into their decisions when looking at these guys.  I could definitely see the Sabres rolling the dice because by all accounts, they should already have a home run selection made in this draft.

what if a guy suffers a career ending injury after a few years? the risk is worth the reward in my view.

[Crusader1969]

I wouldn't draft Guryanov that high because he hasn't played against adequate competition enough times to actually get a good feel for his game. Svechnikov on the other hand at least played in the Q and we can gauge the talent level.

 

I would be happy with Svechnikov too. Actually they are probably 1 & 2 on my wish list if pick 21 is kept. think Sprong would be 3.

[MattPie]

 

Seriously, are you guys just posting without doing any research at all?

 

Sabres blew the Grigorenko contract by playing him at 18 when he wasn't ready- had nothing to do with his nationality. Zadorov wasn't eligible to play in the AHL - that was the problem not that he was Russian.

 

 

So you're saying Zadorov being Russian didn't have any bearing on this? I guess the best question is: how many of these Russian players have been drafted in the KHL, and is the normal case?

http://frozenfutures.com/2014/10/20/nikita-zadorov-buffalo-sabres-tough-spot/

[X. Benedict]

Did they all sign NHL contracts to start with? So because 3 Russians have left the NHL for the KHL in the last 8 years you are going to write them off completely? Funny all 3 of those guys are rumored to want back to the NHL. 

Geez. What kind of fight are you picking here? 

 

I'm not writing anyone off. I'm suggesting that currently you have contract complications and poor decisions made with Grigorenko and Zadorov based partly (key word here, partly)  on those players ability to leverage their opportunities with the KHL. (and Russians in general). 

 

And guess what? Grigorenko's agent is using that leverage again. 

 

I'm not saying don't draft Russians. Or they can't be successful.. 

 

Specifically, I'm saying don't draft one at #21. In practice, that means I'd pass on Guryanov, Svechnikov, Dergachev, or Samsonov.. 

To move up and grab a sure thing(that would include Provorov BTW)  Or take Colin White. 

 

If Guryanov, or Svecnhikov or Samsonov is available at #31..... I'd be happy with the pick.

 

Unlike the Darcy days, when players were rarely if ever moved. GMTM is much more willing to think in terms of organizational assets that can be moved for upgrades. Quite simply....I want the best stockpile of movable assets, especially a pick at #21. 

[shrader]

Did they all sign NHL contracts to start with? So because 3 Russians have left the NHL for the KHL in the last 8 years you are going to write them off completely? Funny all 3 of those guys are rumored to want back to the NHL.

But if we're going to play the game you started earlier asking if other team wish they had taken Tarasenko back in 2010, don't you think Nashville now would have rather taken a player like Travis Zajac at 15 instead of Radulov?

 

what if a guy suffers a career ending injury after a few years? the risk is worth the reward in my view.

Which is why I used the wording earlier where I said that their nationality is one of multiple risk factors for the draft. Years from now you evaluate a pick based on results. Never developing as a player, injury, leaving the league... there are several things that impact that evalutaion.

Edited June 18, 2015 by shrader

[Crusader1969]

So you're saying Zadorov being Russian didn't have any bearing on this? I guess the best question is: how many of these Russian players have been drafted in the KHL, and is the normal case?

http://frozenfutures.com/2014/10/20/nikita-zadorov-buffalo-sabres-tough-spot/

 

yes, I am saying that because he played in the OHL he wasn't eligible to play in the AHL. it doesn't matter what his nationality

[MattPie]

yes, I am saying that because he played in the OHL he wasn't eligible to play in the AHL. it doesn't matter what his nationality

 

I'll give you that it's not Russians per se. It seems like players that have drafted by a KHL team (who largely are Russian) carry risk as from my reading of the article I posted, the KHL team may not release the player to go back to the CHL. Or is that something specific to Zadarov's case?

Edited June 18, 2015 by MattPie

[shrader]

I'll give you that it's not Russians per se. It seems like players that have drafted by a KHL team (who largely are Russian) carry risk as from my reading of the article I posted, the KHL team may not release the player to go back to the CHL. Or is that something specific to Zadarov's case?

 

The Russians are making up the rules as they go, which adds an extra layer of complication to this whole thing.

[Crusader1969]

Geez. What kind of fight are you picking here? 

 

 

not looking for a fight with anyone but a rather a discussion on alternative views.  

 

I just believe with the KHL in turmoil I don't see it being a leverage avenue for anyone who could make over $3million in the NHL. 

 

Bottom line (for me) is you take the best guy available at 21 regardless of nationality.

[X. Benedict]

yes, I am saying that because he played in the OHL he wasn't eligible to play in the AHL. it doesn't matter what his nationality

It absolutely did, but not in that particular case, but in the past year. In the last year he had to stay on the Buffalo roster or get sent to the KHL.  There was an issue where he couldn't be sent to the OHL because of his KHL rights.. IIRC. 

 

I think Bill Hoppe wrote a piece on it. Yep. 

 

http://www.buffalohockeybeat.com/sabres-prospect-nikita-zadorovs-future-could-be-decided-soon/

[TrueBlueGED]

I keep going back to the idea that the KHL is basically irrelevant for players who are good enough to be in the NHL. You can probably count on one hand the number of Russians who chose the KHL over a meaningful NHL job. If it's the KHL versus a 4th line NHL role, sure I can see that being a factor, but the KHL is mostly for NHL washouts. The Grigorenko thing wouldn't even be a consideration if he had been good enough to lock down a spot on the team going forward. It's all much ado about nothing.

[Crusader1969]

It absolutely did, but not in that particular case, but in the past year. In the last year he had to stay on the Buffalo roster or get sent to the KHL.  There was an issue where he couldn't be sent to the OHL because of his KHL rights.. IIRC. 

 

I think Bill Hoppe wrote a piece on it. Yep. 

 

http://www.buffalohockeybeat.com/sabres-prospect-nikita-zadorovs-future-could-be-decided-soon/

 

the original poster said he should have been in AHL last year. All i said is he wasnt able to play in AHL last year - didnt matter what his nationality.

I keep going back to the idea that the KHL is basically irrelevant for players who are good enough to be in the NHL. You can probably count on one hand the number of Russians who chose the KHL over a meaningful NHL job. If it's the KHL versus a 4th line NHL role, sure I can see that being a factor, but the KHL is mostly for NHL washouts. The Grigorenko thing wouldn't even be a consideration if he had been good enough to lock down a spot on the team going forward. It's all much ado about nothing.

 

This is total speculation but would any of the 3 ( Kovalchuk, Radulov and Sobotka) jump back to KHL today if they were still under NHL contracts? 

[X. Benedict]

the original poster said he should have been in AHL last year. All i said is he wasnt able to play in AHL last year - didnt matter what his nationality.

 

 

I see. 

 

But the issue really was  Buffalo's options were limited. It was the KHL or the NHL.  (Juniors wasn't an option). His Nationality was quite pertinent to this.

It's like getting a car with a lien.