Official 2015 NHL Draft Thread

[#freejame]

That's a really interesting board. Haven't seen one quite like it.

It definitely takes some chances. If the draft were to stay true to the board and Zacha is available at 21, I would be ecstatic.  Even with his down year, watching him in the playoffs this season against Erie was a treat. I don't remember if it showed on the scoresheet, but I thought he looked very physical and didn't lose many battles. He did spend some time in the box though, which seems to be a big issue for him.

[rakish]

Part 4

Let's finish this up. The Sabres are expected to pick 92,122,152,182.

When you get to this part of the draft, there are two types of picks that seem to work, overagers and smalls. It probably works doubly if you take overagers that are small.

Why? Well, the smalls are obvious, everyone undervalues them. The overagers I'm not quite sure. My current theory is that you are looking for momentum (Which I recognize is the opposite of the theory that I put out in Part 1 of this series regarding Andersson). Take Conor Garland. His numbers at age 17 weren't good enough to be drafted, yet his numbers at 18 are favorably comparable to other 18 year old prospects who were drafted the year before. I think Garland's good year creates a momentum going forward, at least that's all I got.

There are other examples like Yegor Korshkov, who should have been drafted last year, should get drafted this year, certainly may get passed over again.

We'll put four overagers on the board, and trim off a few defensemen above, so our list remains manageable. While I'm certain these 28 will get us through the entire draft, I'll add on ten smalls just to make sure.

 

Update

I had some time to add a new metric plus I looked at a few more overagers, thus I need to update the board. The major change will be at 31, as Ahl likely will be on the board later in the draft, and I found two candidates that I like, Beauvillier and Harkins. I decided to move Harkins into the 21 spot, since Andersson and Beauviller are more likely to be there at 31.

So my draft board:
Eichel
McDavid
Marner
Hanifan
Provorov
Werenski
Strome

Harkins
Andersson
Beauvillier
Barzal
DeBrusk
Merkley
Yevgeni Svechnikov
Veeti Vainio
Filip Ahl
Thomas Schemitsch
Kyle Capobianco
Ryan Pilon
Nicolas Meloche
Loik L�veill�
Brendan Guhle
Noah Juulsen
Conor Garland
Andrew Mangiapane
Rodrigo Abols
Yegor Korshkov
Tim McGauley
Trevor Cox
Anthony Richard
David Kase
Christopher Mastomäki
Dante Salituro
Kay Schweri
Dmytro Timashov
Cooper Marody


 

Edited June 23, 2015 by rakish

[LGR4GM]

Part 4

 

Let's finish this up. The Sabres are expected to pick 92,122,152,182.

 

When you get to this part of the draft, there are two types of picks that seem to work, overagers and smalls. It probably works doubly if you take overagers that are small.

 

Why? Well, the smalls are obvious, everyone undervalues them. The overagers I'm not quite sure. My current theory is that you are looking for momentum (Which I recognize is the opposite of the theory that I put out in Part 1 of this series regarding Andersson). Take Conor Garland. His numbers at age 17 weren't good enough to be drafted, yet his numbers at 18 are favorably comparable to other 18 year old prospects who were drafted the year before. I think Garland's good year creates a momentum going forward, at least that's all I got.

 

There are other examples like Yegor Korshkov, who should have been drafted last year, should get drafted this year, certainly may get passed over again.

 

I think that is the key you want. If players drafted already but his age are putting up comparable numbers, you should look into that. For instance Tanner Pearsson was passed over and then the following year had great numbers relative to his peers and has been a decent player for LA.

[Crusader1969]

how does a draft board differ from rankings? 

[rakish]

A draft board differs from rankings because the draft board takes into account who might be there.  For example, Lawson Crouse would be on a ranking, but not on my draft board.  I have a couple players on my draft board that I like more than Crouse, but Crouse will be taken before they are taken, so there is really no need to add Crouse to a draft board, same goes for Zacha.

 

And yes, you could argue that there is zero chance I get Zboril or Kylington from my draft board for the same reason (They will be drafted well before a number of players on my board above him).  You would be right. 

[rakish]

==========

 

Regarding ranking/draft board, the issue for me is time.  Liger said a couple weeks ago 'How exactly are you comparing forwards to defensemen when you are drafting best available player?'  It would take me days of asking myself 'Do I rank Crouse above Zboril. or below?  How about Harkins and Pilon?' It's bad enough I got to decide upon Hanifan or Marner, but a full ranking would take me days.

 

Since I know Crouse and Zacha will be taken before Andersson and Ahl, I don't need to make that distinction.

Edited June 10, 2015 by rakish

[GrassValleyGreg]

Here is the Hockey Writers' Mock Draft released this morning. They peg Sprong at 21, and have Andersson flying up the board to 24, right on cue.

 

 

 

21st overall: Buffalo Sabres (from NY Islanders) (Mike Straw) – F Daniel Sprong – Charlottetown Islanders (QMJHL)

After the Sabres took franchise center Jack Eichel at number two, it was clear that the second first-round pick was more of a luxury than anything else. While it’s likely that the team would rather trade it than keep it, the ability to add more first-round talent is never a bad thing. Sprong is a player that is rising on draft boards due to his strong passing game and incredible hockey sense. His overall strength and play in the defensive zone need to be improved, but he’s definitely a prospect that could turn into a nice role player for the Sabres down the line.

 

24th overall: Toronto Maple Leafs (from Nashville) (Andrew Forbes) – D Rasmus Andersson – Barrie Colts (OHL)

 

Andersson could be a late first round steal for the Maple Leafs. His size and skill set makes him a solid pick for the blue line on Toronto. He may be one of the most underrated players in the first couple rounds of the draft with his quickness and ability to read the game. Look for him to move up and be a possibility for the Leafs at 24.

Edited June 11, 2015 by GrassValleyGreg

[LGR4GM]

Uhg I am not a big Sprong fan but if we get him I hope he proves me wrong.

[dudacek]

I'd be unhappy with Sprong at 21.

I'd also be surprised. Doesn't seem like a Murray type of player.

[X. Benedict]

I'd be unhappy with Sprong at 21.

I'd also be surprised. Doesn't seem like a Murray type of player.

I'd be surprised with Sprong at 21. 

But I think I'd be surprised if Buffalo actually picks at 21. 

 

If GMTM is moving up, I'd target Colorado at 10, or Dallas at 12. 

 

Colorado could be a package of moving parts. 

But I could also see Dallas thinking they can trade down to 21 and not lose much if they target a D man, they could also use the extra picks, not having a third round pick at all. 

[dudacek]

I'd be surprised with Sprong at 21. 

But I think I'd be surprised if Buffalo actually picks at 21. 

 

If GMTM is moving up, I'd target Colorado at 10, or Dallas at 12. 

 

Colorado could be a package of moving parts. 

But I could also see Dallas thinking they can trade down to 21 and not lose much if they target a D man, they could also use the extra picks, not having a third round pick at all.

 

Sprong just strikes me as a me-first Nazem Kadri type.

Agree on the rest. I'd also add LA and Boston as targets.

Not sure what we've got that would interest Florida

[LGR4GM]

Sprong just strikes me as a me-first Nazem Kadri type.

Agree on the rest. I'd also add LA and Boston as targets.

Not sure what we've got that would interest Florida

Bogosian, Ennis, and Kane would probably interest Florida but I don't see us moving any of them.

[Derrico]

I'd be surprised with Sprong at 21. 

But I think I'd be surprised if Buffalo actually picks at 21. 

 

If GMTM is moving up, I'd target Colorado at 10, or Dallas at 12. 

 

Colorado could be a package of moving parts. 

But I could also see Dallas thinking they can trade down to 21 and not lose much if they target a D man, they could also use the extra picks, not having a third round pick at all. 

I think that all depends on if Zach Werenski is there or not.  He's expected to go right around there or a touch higher and I feel there's a pretty big drop between him and the next best D (probably Zboril/Roy/Kylington/Carlo).

Edited June 11, 2015 by Derrico

[Crusader1969]

In the Hockey Writers Scenario I would be disappointed the Sabres took Sprong over Svechnikov.

 

Nice thing about it is that Samsonov and Guryanov would be there at 31. Im thinking both are 1st rounders. 

[Derrico]

Samsonov is wayyyyyy to risky for my blood.

[X. Benedict]

I think that all depends on if Zach Werenski is there or not.  He's expected to go right around there or a touch higher and I feel there's a pretty big drop between him and the next best D (probably Zboril/Roy/Kylington/Carlo).

I agree.  I think things level off after Provorov and Werenski are picked. Dallas could trade down and still land a very good D man. 

[rakish]

One small subtraction from my draft board, Hicketts, undrafted in 2014, was signed by Detroit after the draft.  I hadn't realized teams could do this, since the NHL didn't let Edmonton sign Vladimir Tkachyov.  I think the distinction lies in a rather torchered reading of the CBA, 8.9ii

 

had played hockey in North America the prior season

 

means the entire season.  Tkachyov spent half the year in Europe, actually Asia I think, and half in Moncton, if I remember right.

[Derrico]

Two more weeks until the draft!!  We all know who's going at 2 but if the Sabres stick with 21 who is the pick?  I know Liger has also said it but I'm going with Jakub Zbroil.  He's the big all around LHD that we are looking for.

 

If Tim does manage to move up, I'm guessing he can reasonably get to 10-12 where he will either be targeting Timo Meier or Pavel Zacha.  Both guys are big (Meier 6'1, Zacha 6'3) and both play very physical.  Both project out to power wingers with a good offensive game.  Zacha didn't have the numbers Meier had due to injury and suspension but both are power forwards with enough skill to be top 6 players (probably future top line wingers).

 

As far as goaltending, I'm thinking Murray takes Felix Sandstrom in the middle rounds based on his interviews last week.   Last week he really played up Samsonov around the 21 or 31 range.  There's no way I'm taking what a GM says about a certain player (or position for that matter) at face value two weeks before the draft.  It's clearly a #smokescreen.  I love GMTM and love his interviews but if he is seriously tipping his hand two weeks before the draft then this really is amateur hour.  No way he takes a Russian goalie (of all things) who refused to even show up for the NHL Combine held in Buffalo.  Zero chance he is drafted by the Sabres.  I bet he goes with 'just take a big Swedish goalie' approach he has followed in the past.

[Kruppstahl]

I think draft day will be fun this year.  Murray is a gambler and wheeler/dealer not afraid of action.

 

I'll be surprised if we pick anyone at 21.  That pick will be used to move up into the sweet 4th tier of talent, or maybe to acquire a slightly more seasoned but young player already in the league.  Depends on what he is thinking and what his plans for this upcoming year are.  

 

That's just my hunch.  

 

I'd be shocked if we use all our picks where they currently stand.

 

We know we will use Pick #2, at pick #2, to draft a prospect! 

 

Beyond that, I think it's more up in the air.  

[Sabres Fan in NS]

MEIER!!

[dudacek]

i think the Samsonov talk was likely a smokescreen to encourage someone else to drop.

I like Zboril a lot, don't see him lasting to 21, but it's possible.

If 21 isn't moved it won't be because Murray didn't try.

[Kruppstahl]

MEIER!!

This is the guy I want.  

[3putt]

I think many are under estimating the comments about developing youth.  With 3 picks in the top 31, including Eichel, you have the opportunity by leveraging the other picks (Isles and later rounds) to really stock the system with exceptional talent.  They do not need to be looking for immediate help other than from Jack.  A Kyle Connor developing at Michigan for example is a great piece to have in a year or two.  Hell he could break Kariya's record and decide to leave after his freshman year.  The idea that we will trade all of our picks for current roster caliber players seems in opposite to GMTM's recent remarks.

[ubkev]

rakish has me sold on Andersson at 21. Though I'd prefer him at 31, I'd take him at 21.

[sabresith]

MEIER!!

That's my first choice also. After that its Zacha and then everybody else.