Official 2015 NHL Draft Thread

[LGR4GM]

a blog about Kylington - Doesn't change my opinion of him. If it was a skating competition, i'm sure he would be a top 10 pick. His poor play, especially defensive zone mistakes makes me want to stay clear of him in round 1. Even if the Sabres trade down to late first round there will be better options.

 

http://flamesnation.ca/2015/6/8/flames-first-round-targets-2015-oliver-kylington

Kylington has really dropped for me.  He just is missing something and it reminds me of how we always thought Myers was going to hit that next level but never did.  There was just always something missing.  

[rakish]

I study NHL draft history, and from that generate ideas to value the next group of 17 year olds. The results have very little in common with about 25 NHL teams, Craig Button, or Bob McKenzie, but my study of the 2014 draft indicates there is a lot in common with the St Louis Blues, Nashville Predators, Tampa Bay Lightning, and the Detroit Red Wings.

Today we will look at Rasmus Ristolainen. Risto didn't have offensive numbers that jump off the page, so what can you take from his early career that would indicate his future success? Well, of course, he was playing with adults almost as a tottler. Drafted in 2013, in 12-13 he played 52 games in Liiga (the top Fin league), in 11-12 he played 40 games in Liiga, 8 in U-20. In 10-11 they gave him 1 game with adults, and 27 games U-20.

This tells me that we are looking for defensemen who play with adults very early. Risto got his first game with adults about the age of 15. It says something about what the people around him thought of him.

What has received little comment, well I don't read much, so I might be wrong, is how strong the top-end defensemen are this draft. Hanifan, Provorov, and Werenski are excellent, but each will be gone by the Sabres second pick at 21. My board has two more excellent defensemen, the fifth I will save for another day, but the fourth best defenseman on my board resembles Risto in that he was playing with adults at a very young age (that's good). Additionally, he is extremely heavy (that's good), and he scores (that's good).

In 14-15 he scored well for the Barrie Colts in his first season on small ice. In 13-14 he played 43 games with adults in the Swedish 2 league. In 12-13 he played 38 games with adults. In 11-12, he played 13 games in the U-20. He will come in somewhere around 10 on my draft board, he is vastly underrated. The Sabres should draft Rasmus Andersson with the 21st pick in the first round.

[X. Benedict]

Some choices that might be available at 21 or 31  from Redline Report. 

 

Brandon Carlo (31?)

http://www.redlinereport.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Brandon-Carlo-draft-spotlight.pdf

 

Nick Merkely (at 21?)

 

http://www.redlinereport.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Nick-Merkley-draft-spotlight.pdf

 

Jordan Greenway (the size, really curious where he goes - 21 maybe too high, 31 too low?)

 

http://www.redlinereport.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Jordan-Greenway-2015-RLR.pdf

[LGR4GM]

I study NHL draft history, and from that generate ideas to value the next group of 17 year olds. The results have very little in common with about 25 NHL teams, Craig Button, or Bob McKenzie, but my study of the 2014 draft indicates there is a lot in common with the St Louis Blues, Nashville Predators, Tampa Bay Lightning, and the Detroit Red Wings.

 

Today we will look at Rasmus Ristolainen. Risto didn't have offensive numbers that jump off the page, so what can you take from his early career that would indicate his future success? Well, of course, he was playing with adults almost as a tottler. Drafted in 2013, in 12-13 he played 52 games in Liiga (the top Fin league), in 11-12 he played 40 games in Liiga, 8 in U-20. In 10-11 they gave him 1 game with adults, and 27 games U-20.

 

This tells me that we are looking for defensemen who play with adults very early. Risto got his first game with adults about the age of 15. It says something about what the people around him thought of him.

 

What has received little comment, well I don't read much, so I might be wrong, is how strong the top-end defensemen are this draft. Hanifan, Provorov, and Werenski are excellent, but each will be gone by the Sabres second pick at 21. My board has two more excellent defensemen, the fifth I will save for another day, but the fourth best defenseman on my board resembles Risto in that he was playing with adults at a very young age (that's good). Additionally, he is extremely heavy (that's good), and he scores (that's good).

 

In 14-15 he scored well for the Barrie Colts in his first season on small ice. In 13-14 he played 43 games with adults in the Swedish 2 league. In 12-13 he played 38 games with adults. In 11-12, he played 13 games in the U-20. He will come in somewhere around 10 on my draft board, he is vastly underrated. The Sabres should draft Rasmus Andersson with the 21st pick in the first round.

Now I have to go and do some heavy research on Andersson.  Good post. 

[dudacek]

The concept of Jordan Greenway has a nice ring to it — kid is a monster and can skate.

Appears to have dropped during the course of the year, but I'd love to grab him at 51.

 

Kylington played a half-season in the Swedish Elite League at 16.

[LGR4GM]

I still advocate for Zboril

http://www.wingingitinmotown.com/2015/6/8/8743683/2015-nhl-draft-player-profile-red-wings-prospects-jakub-zboril-NHL-hockey

"The thing I love most about Jakub Zboril is he's a reliable utility defenseman. He plays tough minutes in all situations, and is a mainstay QB on the power play. For an 18-year-old rookie coming into a different style of hockey than that of what he played in Czech Republic, it's extremely impressive that he can be so efficient in all situations without the help of being sheltered."

[rakish]

The concept of Jordan Greenway has a nice ring to it — kid is a monster and can skate.

Appears to have dropped during the course of the year, but I'd love to grab him at 51.

 

Kylington played a half-season in the Swedish Elite League at 16.

 

I like Kylington for that reason, but Andersson was playing U-20 (the Swedish Elite League) at about 15, and was playing further up (Allsvenskan) by age 16

[dudacek]

I like Kylington for that reason, but Andersson was playing U-20 (the Swedish Elite League) at about 15, and was playing further up (Allsvenskan) by age 16

 

No disrespect to Andersson who is a nice prospect and right now is probably at a similar level to Kylington, but he is a '96 birth year, while Kylington is a '97.

 

Anderson at 16 played 38 games in the Swedish AHL. At 15 he played 13 games in Superelite U20

Kylington at 16 played 32 games in the Swedish NHL. At 15 he played 39 games in Superelite U20

[3putt]

I like Kylington for that reason, but Andersson was playing U-20 (the Swedish Elite League) at about 15, and was playing further up (Allsvenskan) by age 16

Like cornerbacks, you can never have too many Rasmus's

[rakish]

No disrespect to Andersson who is a nice prospect and right now is probably at a similar level to Kylington, but he is a '96 birth year, while Kylington is a '97.

 

Anderson at 16 played 38 games in the Swedish AHL. At 15 he played 13 games in Superelite U20

Kylington at 16 played 32 games in the Swedish NHL. At 15 he played 39 games in Superelite U20

 

You are missing the point.  Kylington was percieved as a star at 16.  He's 30 pounds lighter than Andersson.  Kylington was playing with adults because he is gifted offensively.  The reason I'm looking at where they were playing at age 15 is to determine why Andersson was there.  He was playing with adults because he can play defense, Andersson is far more comparable to Risto than to Kylington. 

[ubkev]

Draft profile on Andersson. THW seem to think he's less of a risk than Zboril.

 

http://thehockeywriters.com/rasmus-andersson-the-next-ones-nhl-2015-draft-prospect-profile/

[SabresBillsFan]

All I can say is that this team has plenty of time to scout all these kids the last two years and if they do keep the late first rounder and the 2 second's they can't afford to miss on these picks.

[Derrico]

Draft profile on Andersson. THW seem to think he's less of a risk than Zboril.

 

http://thehockeywriters.com/rasmus-andersson-the-next-ones-nhl-2015-draft-prospect-profile/

Nice write-up, thanks.

All I can say is that this team has plenty of time to scout all these kids the last two years and if they do keep the late first rounder and the 2 second's they can't afford to miss on these picks.

I don't agree that they can ever afford to miss on picks (especially a first rounder in what's suppose to be a good draft).  Having said that, I don't think they will miss.  I'm kind of leaning on hoping they either keep the pick or trade up in the draft.  Murray was brought in due to being a good talent evaluator.  Can you imagine if he grabs us another late first / second round Perry or Getzlaf?  Add that to this core and we are really rolling.

[ubkev]

Nice write-up, thanks.

 

I don't agree that they can ever afford to miss on picks (especially a first rounder in what's suppose to be a good draft). Having said that, I don't think they will miss. I'm kind of leaning on hoping they either keep the pick or trade up in the draft. Murray was brought in due to being a good talent evaluator. Can you imagine if he grabs us another late first / second round Perry or Getzlaf? Add that to this core and we are really rolling.

Now I have to read more on Andersson. That THW write up has me all jacked up about him. Now I need to find one that brings me down to earth.

[rakish]

Part 2

 

For me, there are the big two, I prefer Eichel, but preferring McDavid isn't unreasonable. Then, roughly, the next 7, the three defensemen, Marner, Strome, Merkley, and Barzal. After that, there's a real drop.

The dropoff is big enough that I don't want to be picking 10. I would try to trade down and get maybe 21 and 31 from Buffalo, fair, don't know. At pick 10, the consensus seems to be Zacha, who had a big year at age 16, not so exciting this season in Sarnia. I went through box scores to see if he had picked it up the last month, didn't see it, then I got bored. Or maybe Crouse, not for me, my study indicates I'm looking for scorers, and Crouse doesn't score enough, though people do like him. Meire, maybe.

But the Sabres at 31 will have a choice of many good players, I wouldn't be surprised if most of my picks 10-15 were available at 31. For 11, Svechnikov isn't that far off the consensus, so I'm going to guess that Svechnikov is gone by 31. So for draft board pick 12, we do hop off the main line, Filip Ahl.

What I am looking for is big guys that score, and Ahl is that. He's a baby (born mid-June), yet he's had two full years in SWE-20. His SWE-20 team was OK, he's the top scorer on the team, did I mention he's big? Yes I would love it if his time in SHL was more successful, I would love it if his team in SWE-20 was more dominant, but this draft doesn't have a strong 10-20.

So my draft board at this point:
Eichel
McDavid
Hanifan
Marner
Provorov
Strome
Werenski
Merkley
Barzal
Andersson
Yevgeni Svechnikov
Filip Ahl
 

[inkman]

Filip Ahl

 

That guy has AHL written all over him

[K-9]

That guy has AHL written all over him

This is why I don't let the crazies keep me away from this place. GREAT STUFF!

[Randall Flagg]

I remember seeing Andersson in several top 10s around this time last year, wonder what caused the fall.

[rakish]

I remember seeing Andersson in several top 10s around this time last year, wonder what caused the fall.

 

That's interesting, because his numbers this year are very good

[Crusader1969]

Part 2

 

For me, there are the big two, I prefer Eichel, but preferring McDavid isn't unreasonable. Then, roughly, the next 7, the three defensemen, Marner, Strome, Merkley, and Barzal. After that, there's a real drop.

 

The dropoff is big enough that I don't want to be picking 10. I would try to trade down and get maybe 21 and 31 from Buffalo, fair, don't know. At pick 10, the consensus seems to be Zacha, who had a big year at age 16, not so exciting this season in Sarnia. I went through box scores to see if he had picked it up the last month, didn't see it, then I got bored. Or maybe Crouse, not for me, my study indicates I'm looking for scorers, and Crouse doesn't score enough, though people do like him. Meire, maybe.

 

But the Sabres at 31 will have a choice of many good players, I wouldn't be surprised if most of my picks 10-15 were available at 31. For 11, Svechnikov isn't that far off the consensus, so I'm going to guess that Svechnikov is gone by 31. So for draft board pick 12, we do hop off the main line, Filip Ahl.

 

What I am looking for is big guys that score, and Ahl is that. He's a baby (born mid-June), yet he's had two full years in SWE-20. His SWE-20 team was OK, he's the top scorer on the team, did I mention he's big? Yes I would love it if his time in SHL was more successful, I would love it if his team in SWE-20 was more dominant, but this draft doesn't have a strong 10-20.

 

So my draft board at this point:

Eichel

McDavid

Hanifan

Marner

Provorov

Strome

Werenski

Merkley

Barzal

Andersson

Yevgeni Svechnikov

Filip Ahl

 

 

 

You are definitely being bold with Andersson that is your 11th ranked prospect - the highest I've seen him is at 31 on Craig Buttons list -DraftBuzz and McKeens has him lower than 65th. I saw him play 3 times with Lemiuex was property of the Sabres. I do remember one really nice play defending against Justin Bailey otherwise didnt really stand out to me.

 

from Future Considerations: smart, multi-situational defender. ability to QB power Play by making good reads, hard passes and even harder shot. He lacks speed and was unable to keep up with many OHL forwards.needs to use positional play to compensate for lack of speed.

 

and Eichel over McDavid?? I LOVE Eichel and im super excited for him to be a Sabre but there is no way he is can be ranked higher than McDavid.

[rakish]

Part 3

 

If I'm reading wikipedia right, the Sabres next pick is 51. After Ahl, for forwards, my charts have a whole flock of smalls. I might take a goaltender at 51 (I don't study goaltenders), but I think 51 might be a good spot to roll the dice, if Vainio isn't there at 51, I'll take another defensemen. If those are all gone, I'll take a small.

My fifth highest ranked defenseman is Veeti Vainio. Like Ahl, Vainio is rather young (June born) and has two full years in his elite league. The Blues, his FIN-20 team, are good. He's the big scorer from defense. While not heavy, he's tall enough.

So in reading my draft board, I'm not saying Crouse isn't one of the top whatever prospects, I just know someone else likes him more than I do, so he'll be gone by pick 51. It's a draft board, not a ranking.

So my draft board at this point:
Eichel
McDavid
Hanifan
Marner
Provorov
Strome
Werenski
Merkley
Barzal
Andersson
Yevgeni Svechnikov
Filip Ahl
Veeti Vainio
Ryan Pilon
Nicolas Meloche
Thomas Schemitsch
Mitchell Vande Sompel
Kyle Capobianco
Loik L�veill�
Brendan Guhle
Oliver Kylington
Noah Juulsen
Jakub Zboril
Vince Dunn
Thomas Chabot
J�r�my Roy
Jansen Harkins
Anthony Beauvillier
Jake DeBrusk
Anthony Richard
Dante Salituro
Kay Schweri
Daniel Sprong
Christopher Mastom�ki
Dmytro Timashov

You are definitely being bold with Andersson that is your 11th ranked prospect - the highest I've seen him is at 31 on Craig Buttons list -DraftBuzz and McKeens has him lower than 65th. I saw him play 3 times with Lemiuex was property of the Sabres. I do remember one really nice play defending against Justin Bailey otherwise didnt really stand out to me.

 

from Future Considerations: smart, multi-situational defender. ability to QB power Play by making good reads, hard passes and even harder shot. He lacks speed and was unable to keep up with many OHL forwards.needs to use positional play to compensate for lack of speed.

 

and Eichel over McDavid?? I LOVE Eichel and im super excited for him to be a Sabre but there is no way he is can be ranked higher than McDavid.

 

 

I've looked at many of them in previous years, what I end up isn't close to what Button, McKeens, or McKenzie end up with.

[JJFIVEOH]

Buffalo gets hosed for a third straight draft lottery.

 

http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/nwhl-holds-inaugural-draft-lottery-new-york-riveters-land-top-pick/

[Brawndo]

@nhlupdate: Don Maloney says if the 3rd overall pick had to be made today, he'd know who they're taking.

 

@azc_mclellan: Maloney approached by 3 teams about what it would take to trade 3rd pick. "If there's a deal there, it'll be on the draft floor."

Edited June 10, 2015 by BRAWNDO

[#freejame]

@nhlupdate: Don Maloney says if the 3rd overall pick had to be made today, he'd know who they're taking.

 

@azc_mclellan: Maloney approached by 3 teams about what it would take to trade 3rd pick. "If there's a deal there, it'll be on the draft floor."

I feel like Arizona is going to go the offensive route, but in a few years a pairing of Hanifan and OEL would be fun to watch. I think that if they weren't in financial trouble, Hanifan would be the pick but offense sells. 

 

I could be wrong, but I seem to remember Toronto wanting Strome to fall to them at four. If Arizona takes him, what are the chances they aren't sold on Marner and try to move that pick?

 

Edit: http://www.torontosun.com/2015/06/09/pre-draft-talks-heating-up-shanahanI guess this answers my question. As a secondary question, I wonder who the second player TO is high on. I'd really like to have Marner on this team, but I don't think that's going to happen.

Edited June 10, 2015 by IrwinNelson

[X. Benedict]

Part 3

 

If I'm reading wikipedia right, the Sabres next pick is 51. After Ahl, for forwards, my charts have a whole flock of smalls. I might take a goaltender at 51 (I don't study goaltenders), but I think 51 might be a good spot to roll the dice, if Vainio isn't there at 51, I'll take another defensemen. If those are all gone, I'll take a small.

My fifth highest ranked defenseman is Veeti Vainio. Like Ahl, Vainio is rather young (June born) and has two full years in his elite league. The Blues, his FIN-20 team, are good. He's the big scorer from defense. While not heavy, he's tall enough.

So in reading my draft board, I'm not saying Crouse isn't one of the top whatever prospects, I just know someone else likes him more than I do, so he'll be gone by pick 51. It's a draft board, not a ranking.

So my draft board at this point:

Eichel

McDavid

Hanifan

Marner

Provorov

Strome

Werenski

Merkley

Barzal

Andersson

Yevgeni Svechnikov

Filip Ahl

Veeti Vainio

Ryan Pilon

Nicolas Meloche

Thomas Schemitsch

Mitchell Vande Sompel

Kyle Capobianco

Loik L�veill�

Brendan Guhle

Oliver Kylington

Noah Juulsen

Jakub Zboril

Vince Dunn

Thomas Chabot

J�r�my Roy

Jansen Harkins

Anthony Beauvillier

Jake DeBrusk

Anthony Richard

Dante Salituro

Kay Schweri

Daniel Sprong

Christopher Mastom�ki

Dmytro Timashov

 

 

 

I've looked at many of them in previous years, what I end up isn't close to what Button, McKeens, or McKenzie end up with.

That's a really interesting board. Haven't seen one quite like it.