Semifinals Thread

[nfreeman]

A bit more on this:

 

 

@MrSeanGordon: Vanek taking turns on the fourth line at practice? Vanek taking turns on the fourh line at practice. Hmm. #Habs

[qwksndmonster]

Vanek's play making abilities are underrated. Other than that, I'd say you guys have nailed it.

[Marvelo]

When Vanek made that fine slap pass to Pacioretty vs the Bruins, he was in hockey heaven in Montreal. He is now in hockey hell there and it can get very hot, according to the comments in this article:

 

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=452727

[Hoss]

The misuse of Jonas Hiller and Thomas Vanek has sorely hurt their respective teams this postseason.

[nfreeman]

The misuse of Jonas Hiller and Thomas Vanek has sorely hurt their respective teams this postseason.

 

Well, the Habs overachieved by making the semis and beating the President's Trophy winner in the process, and almost beat the Rangers in Game 2 despite losing their best player to injury, so it's hard to see how their use of Vanek has sorely hurt them.

[Hoss]

 

 

Well, the Habs overachieved by making the semis and beating the President's Trophy winner in the process, and almost beat the Rangers in Game 2 despite losing their best player to injury, so it's hard to see how their use of Vanek has sorely hurt them.

 

There have been a few games that they've lost, even in series they eventually won, where their scoring dried up at the wrong time and Vanek wasn't getting any ice time in that frame.

Vanek might be the best forward they have yet they're too stubborn to let him play.

[nfreeman]

There have been a few games that they've lost, even in series they eventually won, where their scoring dried up at the wrong time and Vanek wasn't getting any ice time in that frame.

Vanek might be the best forward they have yet they're too stubborn to let him play.

 

No. The Habs swept their first round series. They then beat what was widely considered to be a substantially better team, with a great goalie, in the 2nd round. In that series they scored 3 or more goals 5 times, 2 goals once (Vanek played 18:31 in that game) and were shut out once (Vanek played 16:09 in that game).

 

His ice time has dried up as Therrien has grown weary of his game.

 

Having the most skill isn't the same as being the best forward.

[Jsixspd]

Blackhawks just jumped out ahead of LA. Leddy with a beautiful PP shot. And actually, it was amazing that the Hawks didn't score on the play where the cross-checking penalty was assessed to LA. I dunno what kept the puck from going in; it was spinning and bouncing around in mid air in front of the LA goal.

Edited May 22, 2014 by Jsixspd

[...]

Damn, LA made that PP look easy. I guess we have a game.

[...]

Wow, the tides have turned. And LA is remembering how to score.

[bunomatic]

Crawfords lost his mojo baby

[MILFHUNTER#518]

I want LA to win this. Quick deserves to go to the finals this year...

[LGR4GM]

Gut check time for the Hawks. That was one of the most piss poor defensive efforts I have ever witnessed them give. Some teams crumble after that, the great teams come back stronger.

[Wyldnwoody44]

Couldn't watch, checked the score and it was 2-0 in the second.... I figured meh it was prolly over, was shocked to check the score at the end of the night and see a 6-2 game..... Maybe the kings learned something from last year's loss in the finals.

 

Anyone think Montreal steals a game tonight? I def don't

 

Either way Chicago or LA will be lifting the trophy this year

[carpandean]

Either way Chicago or LA will be lifting the trophy this year

 

Nah. Definitely the Bowl, probably the Cup, but not the Trophy.

Edited May 22, 2014 by carpandean

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

 

 

Nah. Definitely the Bowl, probably the Cup, but not the Trophy.

 

I think he meant that the Rangers will win the Cup....so all that is left is a trophy to lift....

[Wyldnwoody44]

Ooooo, you two, I leave myself open for 2 seconds and bam......I'll have to watch my words better ;)

 

 

[nfreeman]

Puck Daddy on Vanek: http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/thomas-vanek-panic-for-montreal--minnesota-144555941.html

 

An inescapable part of the pedigree for Vanek was that drunken mess of an Austrian team that played in Sochi. As Austrian Ice Hockey Federation President Dieter Kalt said: “[Chosing] Vanek as team captain to have an experienced player and this obviously went wrong.”

 

Duhatschek on Vanek: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/price-injury-becomes-a-talking-point-for-kings-and-blackhawks/article18753930/?page=all

 

 

When times were good in Montreal, there was some talk that the Canadiens might actually consider bidding for Vanek in free agency. Now, it seems highly unlikely, given what a negligible impact he’s had on their run to the semi-finals.

 

...

 

Minnesota has the great good fortune of having Dany Heatley’s $7-million cap hit disappear after this season, but committing that money to Vanek, a player of questionable playoff pedigree, seems ill-advised at this stage.

[TrueBlueGED]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2014/05/22/canadiens-need-a-crash-course-on-solving-the-rangers-henrik-lundqvist/

 

 

So the Habs currently cannot score on Lundqvist, and apparently by far the best way to score on him is to get shots/chances in close. If only the Habs had an elite net-front presence they could utilize to aid them in this endeavor.

 

Lack of defensive intensity, lazy stick penalties, whatever...fact of the matter is you have to get in close to score on Lundqvist, and that's the one thing nobody argues Vanek is elite at. A good coach would find a way to use this ability while masking his weaknesses.

[nfreeman]

 

So the Habs currently cannot score on Lundqvist, and apparently by far the best way to score on him is to get shots/chances in close. If only the Habs had an elite net-front presence they could utilize to aid them in this endeavor.

 

Lack of defensive intensity, lazy stick penalties, whatever...fact of the matter is you have to get in close to score on Lundqvist, and that's the one thing nobody argues Vanek is elite at. A good coach would find a way to use this ability while masking his weaknesses.

 

Serious question: why do you consider Vanek "elite?"

 

In his last 2 full NHL seasons, he's scored 27 goals (tied for 33rd in the NHL) and 26 goals (tied for 45th).

 

How on earth can that be considered "elite?"

 

Maybe he hasn't been held back by all 4 of the NHL coaches he's played for -- including one who was named to the Canadian Olympic team twice and another who coached a decided underdog to a playoff series win over the President's Trophy winner (and another who was way out of his depth, but whatever).

 

Maybe he's just a good player with good hands who isn't even close to "elite."

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2014/05/22/canadiens-need-a-crash-course-on-solving-the-rangers-henrik-lundqvist/

 

 

So the Habs currently cannot score on Lundqvist, and apparently by far the best way to score on him is to get shots/chances in close. If only the Habs had an elite net-front presence they could utilize to aid them in this endeavor.

 

Lack of defensive intensity, lazy stick penalties, whatever...fact of the matter is you have to get in close to score on Lundqvist, and that's the one thing nobody argues Vanek is elite at. A good coach would find a way to use this ability while masking his weaknesses.

 

So how does that heat map look for any other goalie?....except maybe Miller?

[Kristian]

Serious question: why do you consider Vanek "elite?"

 

In his last 2 full NHL seasons, he's scored 27 goals (tied for 33rd in the NHL) and 26 goals (tied for 45th).

 

How on earth can that be considered "elite?"

 

Maybe he hasn't been held back by all 4 of the NHL coaches he's played for -- including one who was named to the Canadian Olympic team twice and another who coached a decided underdog to a playoff series win over the President's Trophy winner (and another who was way out of his depth, but whatever).

 

Maybe he's just a good player with good hands who isn't even close to "elite."

 

Even if he wasn't, he's still the best crease player on Habs, easily.

[TrueBlueGED]

Serious question: why do you consider Vanek "elite?"

 

In his last 2 full NHL seasons, he's scored 27 goals (tied for 33rd in the NHL) and 26 goals (tied for 45th).

 

How on earth can that be considered "elite?"

 

Maybe he hasn't been held back by all 4 of the NHL coaches he's played for -- including one who was named to the Canadian Olympic team twice and another who coached a decided underdog to a playoff series win over the President's Trophy winner (and another who was way out of his depth, but whatever).

 

Maybe he's just a good player with good hands who isn't even close to "elite."

 

I'm not sure how you got "elite player" from "elite net-front presence."

 

Edit: For fun, here's something to chew on. This year Vanek was 7th in the league in points per 60 minutes (P/60) of ice time at even strength for players with >400 minutes played (arbitrarily low cutoff to disqualify 5 game players...for reference, players like Getzlaf and Perry played 1100 minutes, so it's not like I'm excluding the league's elite).

 

Last year? 26th.

 

2011: 52. Might seem low, but he's ahead of Taylor Hall, Bobby Ryan, Anze Kopitar, NIcklas Backstrom, and others, while being .01 behind John Tavares.

 

2010: 23rd.

2009: 48th. Just behind Toews, ahead of Kesler, Zetterberg, Eric Staal, Spezza, Datsyuk.

 

My point is that he's an elite offensive player who has holes in his overall game that make him less valuable than other players and keep him from consistently being considered one of the league's best. But his offensive numbers absolutely stack up. And yes, this is all completely tangental to my original point, which was he's an absolute wizard in front of the net.

 

So how does that heat map look for any other goalie?....except maybe Miller?

 

No idea, but would be interesting to look at.

Edited May 22, 2014 by TrueBluePhD

[X. Benedict]

I'm not sure how you got "elite player" from "elite net-front presence."

 

Edit: For fun, here's something to chew on. This year Vanek was 7th in the league in points per 60 minutes (P/60) of ice time at even strength for players with >400 minutes played (arbitrarily low cutoff to disqualify 5 game players...for reference, players like Getzlaf and Perry played 1100 minutes, so it's not like I'm excluding the league's elite).

 

Last year? 26th.

 

2011: 52. Might seem low, but he's ahead of Taylor Hall, Bobby Ryan, Anze Kopitar, NIcklas Backstrom, and others, while being .01 behind John Tavares.

 

2010: 23rd.

2009: 48th. Just behind Toews, ahead of Kesler, Zetterberg, Eric Staal, Spezza, Datsyuk.

 

My point is that he's an elite offensive player who has holes in his overall game that make him less valuable than other players and keep him from consistently being considered one of the league's best. But his offensive numbers absolutely stack up. And yes, this is all completely tangental to my original point, which was he's an absolute wizard in front of the net.

 

 

 

No idea, but would be interesting to look at.

 

It's a pretty cool tool. Check it out.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/icetrack/

[nfreeman]

I'm not sure how you got "elite player" from "elite net-front presence."

 

Edit: For fun, here's something to chew on. This year Vanek was 7th in the league in points per 60 minutes (P/60) of ice time at even strength for players with >400 minutes played (arbitrarily low cutoff to disqualify 5 game players...for reference, players like Getzlaf and Perry played 1100 minutes, so it's not like I'm excluding the league's elite).

 

Last year? 26th.

 

2011: 52. Might seem low, but he's ahead of Taylor Hall, Bobby Ryan, Anze Kopitar, NIcklas Backstrom, and others, while being .01 behind John Tavares.

 

2010: 23rd.

2009: 48th. Just behind Toews, ahead of Kesler, Zetterberg, Eric Staal, Spezza, Datsyuk.

 

My point is that he's an elite offensive player who has holes in his overall game that make him less valuable than other players and keep him from consistently being considered one of the league's best. But his offensive numbers absolutely stack up. And yes, this is all completely tangental to my original point, which was he's an absolute wizard in front of the net.

 

 

I don't think the stats that either of us cited support the characterization of Vanek as "an elite offensive player."

 

If we're going to narrow down the category further to "elite net-front presence" -- first, I don't think that description of Vanek is supported by pts/60 min at even strength, because that stat doesn't differentiate between net-front, half-wall, etc. Second, even if that stat were in fact a proxy for "net front eliteness" -- I don't think an average ranking of 31st in that stat over the last 5 years would qualify as "elite."

 

(As an aside, I don't see why PP time should be excluded -- although I would guess that including PP time would help Vanek.)

 

Doesn't a player need to have more game than just an "elite net-front presence" to be considered an "elite offensive player?" And if a player is only "an elite net-front" guy but has serious other holes in his game, is that enough to earn him substantial ice time in the semifinals (or, as you might prefer, "conference finals")?

 

We may just be implicitly disagreeing on the meaning of "elite." I think of "elite" as a proxy for "top 5-10." For a player to be considered an "elite goalscorer," I think that player needs to be consistently in the top 5-6 goalscorers in the NHL. You may think the "elite" group is much higher.

 

I also think that an "elite offensive player" needs to be a guy who consistently pressures the defense and creates scoring chances. I would guess that you would admit that Vanek disappears for long stretches